出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：浪头饮食/ 郝显 7月11日，天润乳业发布业绩预告，预计2025年半年度归母净利润为-2600万元到-1800万元，继上年归 母净利润大幅下滑之后，终于陷入亏损。 目前原奶供过于求，市场竞争加剧，减值折旧成为拉低天润乳业净利润的重要因素。前几年天润乳业一 直在逆势扩张，造成负债率攀升，产能利用率下滑，在收入下滑的情况下，如何消化新增产能及高额负 债？ 天润乳业陷入亏损 逆势扩张拉低利润 从2021年10月起，原奶价格已经连续下滑了三年，累计跌幅近30%。原奶价格下行主要原因一是国内乳 制品市场增长停滞，消费不景气；二是前几年乳企扩张奶源，导致产量不断增长，出现供过于求。 在行业下行周期，天润乳业选择了逆势扩张。2024年10月，天润乳业发行可转债募资9.9亿元，主要投 向"年产20万吨乳制品加工项目"，剩余2.78亿元用于补充流动资金。该项目建成后将增加20万吨产能， 而2023年天润乳业总产能为35.12万吨，新增产能相当于现有产能的57%。 除此之外，天润乳业还在通过并购及对外投资的方式对外扩张。2023 年 5 月，天润乳业以现金收购的 方式从新农开发手中取得新农乳业 ...

新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 | | | 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司关于 关于控股股东减持公司可转换公司债券的公告 一、股东配售可转债的情况 根据中国证券监督管理委员会《关于同意新疆天润乳业股份有限公司向不特 定对象发行可转换公司债券注册的批复》（证监许可〔2024〕899 号），公司于 2024 年 10 月 24 日向不特定对象发行了 990.00 万张可转换公司债券，每张面值 100 元，发行总额 99,000.00 万元，发行期限 6 年。经上海证券交易所自律监管 决定书〔2024〕149 号文同意，公司本次发行的 99,000.00 万元可转换公司债券 于 2024 年 11 月 15 日在上海证券交易所上市交易，债券简称"天润转债"，债 券代码"110097"。 公 司 控 股 股 东 国 资 公 司 通 过 优 先 配 售 认 购 天 润 转 债 307,890,000 元 （3,078,900 张），占发行总量的 31.10%。 1 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 二、可转债减持情况 2025 年 7 月 15 日，公司收到国资公司通知，2025 年 6 月 26 日至 2025 年 7 月 15 日期间 ...

Group 1 - The controlling shareholder of Tianrun Dairy, Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps 12th Division State-owned Assets Investment Development Group Co., Ltd., reduced its holdings of the company's convertible bonds by 1.0161 million units, accounting for 10.26% of the total issuance [1] - After the reduction, the state-owned company holds 2.0628 million units of Tianrun convertible bonds, representing 20.84% of the total issuance [1] - The company issued 9.9 million units of convertible bonds on October 24, 2024, with a face value of 100 yuan per unit, totaling 990 million yuan, with a maturity period of 6 years [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3519.65, up 0.27% [2][4] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.11%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.45% [2][4] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious with a focus on the electric power sector, which has shown strength recently [4][11] Economic Indicators - In the first half of 2025, China's total goods trade reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [18][19] - The total value of exports was 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports decreased by 2.7% to 8.79 trillion yuan [19][20] - The People's Bank of China reported an increase of 12.92 trillion yuan in RMB loans during the same period [20][21] Industry Dynamics - The EVTank report indicates that in 2024, Chinese companies dominated the global high-rate battery market, occupying eight out of the top ten positions [30] - The construction of the largest 750 kV ring network project in China has been completed, enhancing power supply capabilities in the Xinjiang region [34] - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a transformation with efforts to reduce "involution" and improve overall market conditions [62] Company Performance - KingMed Diagnostics (603882.SH) is expected to report a net loss of 0.65 billion to 0.95 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 0.90 billion yuan in the previous year [36] - Zhongji United (605305.SH) anticipates a net profit of 0.25 billion to 0.30 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 78.02% to 113.63% year-on-year [37] - JiuLi Special Materials (002318.SZ) is set to enhance its production capabilities with a new high-tech seamless steel pipe production line [40] Financial Performance - Youfu Co., Ltd. (002427.SZ) expects to turn a profit in the first half of 2025, with a net profit forecast of 10 million to 15 million yuan [44] - MiaoKe LanDuo (60882.SH) projects a net profit increase of 56% to 89% for the first half of 2025, driven by rising cheese product sales [46] - Shengyi Technology (688183.SH) anticipates a staggering net profit growth of 432% to 471% for the same period, attributed to strategic product optimization [55]

天润乳业面临的困境折射出国内乳业当前的共性难题。国家统计局数据显示，2025年上半年全国乳制品 消费量同比增长1.8%，为近年来最低水平之一。同期全国奶产量达2150万吨，同比增长3.2%，供给明 显快于需求。 天润乳业依托新疆奶源优势布局全国市场，其推出的"奶皮子鲜奶""冰激凌化了"酸奶等创新产品，不仅 成为社交平台爆款，也让"新疆奶"这一地域标签走向全国。但在华东、华南等增量市场的拓展中，仍需 面对伊利、蒙牛等龙头企业的激烈竞争，渠道投入与品牌建设成本高企。 近日，新疆地区最具代表性乳企天润乳业（600419.SH）发布半年度业绩预告，尽管从数据看公司减 亏，但深入分析可见，公司短期业绩改善仍依赖非经常性损益调整，核心业务面临的行业压力未完全缓 解。 数据显示，今年上半年，天润乳业归母净利润为-1800万元至-2600万元，较上年同期的-2790.78万元， 略有减亏。此外，扣非净利润预计为4600万元至6700万元，同比显著增长。 对于减亏，业绩预告显示，主要得益于对低产奶牛的加速淘汰、大包奶粉库存策略调整及生物资产减值 计提等一次性因素。这些措施虽有助于优化资产结构，但短期内对利润形成明显拖累。例如， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies within the sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant differentiation within the industry, particularly in the liquor segment, where companies are actively seeking transformation amid market pressures. It emphasizes three main investment themes: leading brands, high-certainty regional brands, and flexible companies benefiting from recovery [1][2]. - In the beer and beverage sector, companies like Yanjing and Zhujiang are expected to show strong profit growth, with Yanjing projected to achieve a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50% [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is experiencing a challenging half-year, with demand and policy impacts leading to a slowdown in sales. The report anticipates that the performance expectations for the mid-year and the entire year of 2025 have been largely adjusted [2]. - Key players like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are focusing on service enhancement and transformation strategies to navigate the current market conditions. The report suggests that the upcoming month of September will be critical for assessing the impact of policies and consumer demand [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - Yanjing Beer is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50%. Zhujiang Beer is also projected to see a profit increase of 15% to 25% [3]. - Eastroc Beverage is forecasted to generate revenue of 10.63 to 10.84 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.31 to 2.45 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 33% to 42% year-on-year [3]. Consumer Goods - The report notes that companies like Youyou Foods and Miaokelando are expected to report significant profit increases, with Youyou Foods projecting a revenue growth of 40.91% to 50.77% [7]. - The overall consumer goods sector is highlighted as a space to watch for growth, particularly for companies that are innovating and expanding their market reach [7].

Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Co., Ltd. is forecasting a net loss for the first half of 2025, with expected losses between 26 million yuan and 18 million yuan, while also projecting a net profit (excluding non-recurring losses) between 46 million yuan and 67 million yuan [2][3]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company for the first half of 2025 to be between -26 million yuan and -18 million yuan, indicating a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [2][3]. - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company, after excluding non-recurring losses, is projected to be between 46 million yuan and 67 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Previous Year Comparison - In the same period last year, the company reported a total profit of -44.04 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company at -27.91 million yuan, and a net profit of 2.39 million yuan after excluding non-recurring losses [3]. - The earnings per share for the previous year was -0.0885 yuan [3]. Group 3: Reasons for Performance Decline - The anticipated performance decline is attributed to several factors: increased disposal of low-yield dairy cows leading to higher losses, losses from the sale of bulk milk powder, accounting provisions for biological asset impairment, and increased market investment support [3].

[Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Co., Ltd. H1 2025 Preliminary Loss Announcement](index=1&type=section&id=%E6%96%B0%E7%96%86%E5%A4%A9%E6%B6%A6%E4%B9%B3%E4%B8%9A%E8%82%A1%E4%BB%BD%E6%9C%89%E9%99%90%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B82025%E5%B9%B4%E5%8D%8A%E5%B9%B4%E5%BA%A6%E4%B8%9A%E7%BB%A9%E9%A2%84%E4%BA%8F%E5%85%AC%E5%91%8A) [Current Period Performance Forecast](index=1&type=section&id=%E4%B8%80%E3%80%81%E6%9C%AC%E6%9C%9F%E4%B8%9A%E7%BB%A9%E9%A2%84%E5%91%8A%E6%83%85%E5%86%B5) The company forecasts a narrowed net loss for H1 2025 while expecting growth in net profit after non-recurring items H1 2025 Performance Forecast vs H1 2024 Actuals | Financial Metric | H1 2025 Forecast (RMB) | H1 2024 Actual (RMB) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Owners** | -26 million to -18 million | -27.91 million | | **Net Profit After Non-recurring Items** | 46 million to 67 million | 23.95 million | - The company explicitly states an expected **"loss reduction"** in net profit attributable to parent company owners compared to the same period last year[5](index=5&type=chunk) - This performance forecast has not been audited by a certified public accountant[8](index=8&type=chunk) [Prior Year Period Operating Performance and Financial Status](index=2&type=section&id=%E4%BA%8C%E3%80%81%E4%B8%8A%E5%B9%B4%E5%90%8C%E6%9C%9F%E7%BB%8F%E8%90%A5%E4%B8%9A%E7%BB%A9%E5%92%8C%E8%B4%A2%E5%8A%A1%E7%8A%B6%E5%86%B5) The company reported a net loss of 27.91 million RMB and earnings per share of -0.0885 RMB for the same period in 2024 H1 2024 Key Financial Data | Metric | Amount (RMB) | | :--- | :--- | | Total Profit | -44.05 million | | Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Owners | -27.91 million | | Net Profit After Non-recurring Items | 23.95 million | | Earnings Per Share (EPS) | -0.0885 | [Main Reasons for the Forecasted Loss](index=2&type=section&id=%E4%B8%89%E3%80%81%E6%9C%AC%E6%9C%9F%E4%B8%9A%E7%BB%A9%E9%A2%84%E4%BA%8F%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%BB%E8%A6%81%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0) The forecasted loss is attributed to the disposal of low-yield cows, losses from bulk milk powder sales, and increased market investments - Key operational factors contributing to the current period's forecasted loss include[11](index=11&type=chunk): - Increased losses from the accelerated disposal of low-yield dairy cows - Losses from the sale of bulk milk powder - Impairment provisions for biological assets - Increased investment and support for market expansion [Risk Warning](index=2&type=section&id=%E5%9B%9B%E3%80%81%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9%E6%8F%90%E7%A4%BA) The company confirms no other significant uncertainties are expected to affect the accuracy of this performance forecast - The company states that there are no other uncertain factors that could materially affect the accuracy of this performance forecast[12](index=12&type=chunk) [Other Explanatory Notes](index=2&type=section&id=%E4%BA%94%E3%80%81%E5%85%B6%E4%BB%96%E8%AF%B4%E6%98%8E%E4%BA%8B%E9%A1%B9) The company advises that these figures are preliminary and the final data will be in the official H1 2025 report - Investors are advised that the forecast data is preliminary, and the final, accurate financial data will be disclosed in the company's official H1 2025 semi-annual report[13](index=13&type=chunk)

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the dairy industry is experiencing a significant oversupply of raw milk, leading to a slowdown in the culling of dairy cows. The current contract milk price is 3.04 CNY/kg, while spot milk prices are below 2.5 CNY/kg, indicating financial strain on dairy farms [7] - The report suggests that the culling of dairy cows may accelerate in the near future due to increasing operational pressures on farms, with spot milk prices dropping to around 2.3 CNY/kg [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - For the farm sector, it is recommended to focus on Yuran Dairy (09858, Buy), which is the largest farm enterprise and is expected to benefit from the rebound in milk prices and the recovery of dairy cow fair value. The report also suggests paying attention to leading farm Modern Dairy (01117, Not Rated) [2] - In the dairy enterprise sector, the report recommends Tianrun Dairy (600419, Not Rated), Yili Group (600887, Buy), and Mengniu Dairy (02319, Buy). The current low milk prices and intense competition in the dairy product market are expected to improve as milk prices recover, benefiting both Yili and Mengniu [2]

Industry Overview - Ice cream is a frozen food made primarily from drinking water, milk, cream, sugar, and food additives, produced through various processes [1][6] - The domestic ice cream industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with market size projected to increase from 83.9 billion yuan in 2015 to 183.5 billion yuan in 2024, and expected to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2027 [1][6][8] Market Dynamics - The average per capita ice cream consumption in China is 2.9 kg, which is higher than the Asia-Pacific average of 2.1 kg but still below the global average of 4.5 kg, indicating significant growth potential for the market [8] - Consumer acceptance of ice cream prices generally falls between 3 to 10 yuan, with 70.9% of consumers preferring this price range, while higher-priced ice creams face lower acceptance [10] Consumer Preferences - In 2025, 64.29% of consumers expressed interest in fruit and herb flavors, while 47.61% preferred nut and spice flavors, indicating a trend towards innovative flavor combinations [12] - Health-conscious trends are driving demand for low-sugar, low-fat, and additive-free ice cream products, with functional ice creams like probiotic and collagen varieties gaining popularity [20] Competitive Landscape - Leading companies in the Chinese ice cream market include Yili, Unilever (Wall's), Mengniu, and Nestlé, with market shares of 19%, 15%, 9%, and 8% respectively [14] - New brands and traditional companies are entering the market, intensifying competition [14] Development Trends - The ice cream industry is witnessing a diversification of flavors and forms, with companies innovating to meet changing consumer preferences [21] - The expansion of online sales channels, driven by e-commerce and cold chain logistics, is providing broader market access for ice cream products [23]