Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in Northern Rare Earth's semi-annual performance by 1882.54% to 2014.71% has stimulated a strong rally in the entire rare earth permanent magnet sector, leading to active trading in related ETFs [1] ETF Market Summary - Four rare earth-related ETFs saw a half-day increase of over 3%, with the rare earth ETF (516780) and the rare earth ETF by Harvest (516150) both exceeding a transaction amount of 100 million yuan [1] - The rare earth ETF (159713) recorded a 3.57% increase, with a scale of 4.42 million shares and a half-day transaction amount of 56.03 million yuan [3] - The rare earth ETF by Harvest (516150) has a larger scale of 20.88 million shares and a half-day increase of 3.4%, with a transaction amount of 172 million yuan [3] ETF Scale Changes - The rare earth ETF by Harvest (516150) and the rare earth ETF (516780) have seen significant increases in shares this year, with the former increasing by 495 million shares, resulting in a year-to-date change rate of 31.07% [2] Investment Logic - The marginal improvement in supply and demand for upstream rare earth resource companies is driven by strengthened expectations of supply contraction and increased demand from relaxed export controls, suggesting potential benefits from rising rare earth prices [2] - In the medium to long term, as rare earth prices steadily recover, the profitability of downstream magnetic material companies is expected to continue to improve [2] Key Weight Stocks in the Index - The major weight stocks in the China Securities Rare Earth Industry Index include Northern Rare Earth (13.25%), China Rare Earth (5.54%), and Lingyi Technology (5.11%), among others, indicating a high concentration of companies deeply involved in the rare earth supply chain [4]

Group 1: Liquidity and Performance of Rare Earth ETF - The liquidity of the Rare Earth ETF managed by Jiashi has a turnover rate of 6.85%, with a half-day trading volume of 172 million yuan [3] - Over the past week, the average daily trading volume of the Rare Earth ETF reached 182 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The fund's scale increased by 43.99 million yuan in the past two weeks, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The fund's shares increased by 21.7 million units in the past month, achieving significant growth and ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The latest net inflow of funds into the Rare Earth ETF is 35.42 million yuan, with a total of 64.51 million yuan net inflow over the last five trading days [3] - As of July 9, the net value of the Rare Earth ETF has risen by 39.87% over the past year, ranking 503 out of 2907 index equity funds, placing it in the top 17.30% [3] - The fund has recorded a maximum monthly return of 41.25% since its inception, with the longest consecutive monthly increase being four months and the longest increase percentage being 83.89% [3] Group 2: Industry Outlook and Company Performance - Northern Rare Earth announced a semi-annual performance forecast, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 900 million to 960 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [4] - The Ministry of Commerce of China emphasized the importance of maintaining global supply chain stability and has approved a certain number of compliant applications for rare earth exports, indicating a recovery in export demand [4] - Emerging fields such as humanoid robots are expected to open up growth opportunities for the rare earth industry, with a positive outlook for the industry's recovery in the short to medium term [4] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Earth Industry Index include Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and China Aluminum, collectively accounting for 55.58% of the index [4]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.13% on July 9, with 17 out of the 28 sectors rising, led by Media and Agriculture sectors, which increased by 1.35% and 0.65% respectively [1] - The Electric Equipment sector saw a slight increase of 0.17% [1] - The sectors with the largest declines were Non-ferrous Metals and Basic Chemicals, which dropped by 2.26% and 0.85% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 38.536 billion yuan, with only three sectors experiencing net inflows: Media (1.055 billion yuan), Retail (864 million yuan), and Construction Decoration (40.34 million yuan) [1] - The Electronic sector had the largest net outflow, totaling 7.789 billion yuan, followed by Non-ferrous Metals with 5.412 billion yuan [1] Electric Equipment Sector Performance - In the Electric Equipment sector, 358 stocks were tracked, with 99 stocks rising and 252 stocks declining; 5 stocks hit the daily limit up [2] - The top net inflow stock was Ningde Times, with a net inflow of 378 million yuan, followed by Tongguan Copper Foil and Kelu Electronics with inflows of 219 million yuan and 178 million yuan respectively [2] - The sector experienced a total net outflow of 4.576 billion yuan, with 11 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 100 million yuan; the largest outflows were from Rongfa Nuclear Power, Sunshine Power, and Nord Shares, with outflows of 327 million yuan, 250 million yuan, and 226 million yuan respectively [2][3] Top Gainers in Electric Equipment Sector - The top gainers in the Electric Equipment sector included: - Ningde Times: +2.84%, turnover rate 0.75%, main capital flow 377.94 million yuan - Tongguan Copper Foil: +20.02%, turnover rate 48.19%, main capital flow 218.52 million yuan - Kelu Electronics: +10.06%, turnover rate 7.49%, main capital flow 178.39 million yuan [2] Top Losers in Electric Equipment Sector - The top losers in the Electric Equipment sector included: - Rongfa Nuclear Power: +0.42%, turnover rate 33.08%, main capital flow -327.43 million yuan - Sunshine Power: -0.57%, turnover rate 3.01%, main capital flow -249.65 million yuan - Nord Shares: -4.98%, turnover rate 14.04%, main capital flow -226.20 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the A-share market is mixed, with the China Securities Rare Earth Industry Index showing a slight increase, indicating a positive trend in the rare earth sector [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Rare Earth Industry Index rose by 0.11% to 1828.49 points, with a trading volume of 26.247 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the index has increased by 10.62%, by 4.54% over the last three months, and by 15.35% year-to-date [2] Group 2: Index Composition - The index includes companies involved in rare earth mining, processing, trading, and applications, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the rare earth industry [2] - The top ten weighted companies in the index are: Northern Rare Earth (13.23%), China Rare Earth (5.63%), Lingyi Technology (5.01%), China Aluminum (4.97%), Greeenmei (4.94%), Baotou Steel (4.79%), Wolong Electric Drive (4.6%), Goldwind Technology (4.5%), Xiamen Tungsten (4.22%), and Shenghe Resources (3.86%) [2] Group 3: Market and Sector Breakdown - The index's holdings are primarily listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (51.69%), followed by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (47.71%) and the Beijing Stock Exchange (0.60%) [2] - In terms of industry composition, raw materials account for 64.65%, industrials for 27.98%, and information technology for 7.37% [2] Group 4: Index Adjustment and Fund Tracking - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December, with a sample adjustment ratio not exceeding 20% [3] - Public funds tracking the rare earth industry include various ETFs from companies such as Harvest, Huatai-PB, and E Fund [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry or specific companies [2]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with companies like Orbbec and Rongtai expanding their market presence and revenue projections [3][4]. - The report highlights the increasing demand for components and technologies related to humanoid robots, indicating a robust supply chain development [2][3][4][5][6][7]. Company Summaries Orbbec (688322.SS) - Orbbec's humanoid robot revenue is projected to grow from Rmb4 million in 2024 to Rmb30 million in 2025, with market share in China expected to surpass that of Intel's RealSense [3][10]. - The dollar content for 3D vision technology is anticipated to increase from Rmb4,000-5,000 to Rmb8,000 as it becomes integrated into more parts of the robot [3]. Rongtai (603119.SS) - Rongtai has a ~50% market share in micro ballscrews used in humanoid robots and is expanding its operations by building a factory in Thailand to meet US customer requirements [4][10]. - The company aims to grow its core business by 20%-30% CAGR, driven by rising penetration rates in the humanoid robot supply chain [4]. Hengli (601100.SS) - Hengli plans to reduce the production cost of planetary roller screws to ~Rmb1,000 by the end of 2025 and is considering establishing a plant in Houston, TX, to secure orders from US customers [5][10]. - The company targets a +10% YoY revenue and earnings growth, primarily driven by strong demand in the excavator component business [10]. Bozhon (688097.SS) - Bozhon's subsidiary Linkhou is expected to generate Rmb400 million-500 million in revenue in 2025 by providing components and assembly services to Zhiyuan [6][10]. - The company has sold Rmb20 million-30 million worth of humanoid robot assembly equipment to a leading US humanoid robot maker since 2024 [6]. Wolong (600580.SS) - Wolong aims to become the second electric motor supplier to Zhiyuan, targeting revenue growth from Rmb15 billion in 2024 to Rmb16 billion in 2025 [7][10]. - The company plans to pursue mergers and acquisitions to fuel long-term growth, with net profit expected to rise from Rmb793 million in 2024 to Rmb1.1 billion in 2025 [7][10].

证券代码：600580 证券简称：卧龙电驱 公告编号：临 2025-049 卧龙电气驱动集团股份有限公司 关于第一大股东部分股份质押解除的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 股东浙江卧龙舜禹投资有限公司（以下简称"卧龙舜禹"）持有卧龙电 气驱动集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）股份 507,358,176 股，占公司总 股本的 32.48%，为公司第一大股东。本次办理股份解除质押后，卧龙舜禹累计 质押公司股份 46,800,000 股，占其持有公司股份总数的 9.22%，占公司总股本的 3.00%；卧龙舜禹及其一致行动人累计质押公司股份 46,800,000 股，占其持有公 司股份总数的 7.71%，占公司总股本的 3.00%。 公司于 2025 年 06 月 27 日接到股东卧龙舜禹的通知，获悉卧龙舜禹将其质 押给中国农业银行股份有限公司绍兴上虞支行的股份办理了质押解除业务，具体 事项如下： | 股东名称 | 浙江卧龙舜禹投资有限公司 | | --- | --- | | 本次解除质押股份 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the share reduction results of directors and senior management at Wolong Electric Drive Group Co., Ltd, indicating a planned reduction and the actual shares sold by key individuals [1][3]. Group 1: Shareholding Information - Before the reduction plan, Mr. Li Ming held 1,637,459 shares, approximately 0.1257% of the total share capital of 1,302,622,626 shares, while Mr. Wan Chuangqi held 1,229,921 shares, about 0.0944% of the total [1]. - As of the announcement date, Mr. Li Ming's holdings decreased to 1,257,459 shares (0.0965%), and Mr. Wan Chuangqi's holdings decreased to 1,002,521 shares (0.0770%) [2]. Group 2: Reduction Plan Implementation - The reduction plan was disclosed on March 4, 2025, with Mr. Li Ming planning to reduce up to 409,364 shares (0.0314% of total shares) and Mr. Wan Chuangqi planning to reduce up to 307,480 shares (0.0236% of total shares) [1]. - During the implementation period, Mr. Li Ming reduced his holdings by 380,000 shares, and Mr. Wan Chuangqi reduced his holdings by 227,400 shares [1]. - The actual reduction matched the disclosed plan, and there was no minimum reduction quantity set for this plan [3].

卧龙电气驱动集团股份有限公司 关于董事、高级管理人员减持股份结果公告 本公司董事会、全体董事及相关股东保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 证券代码：600580 证券简称：卧龙电驱 公告编号：2025-048 董事、高级管理人员持股的基本情况 本次减持计划实施前，卧龙电气驱动集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"） 董事兼高级管理人员黎明先生持有公司股票 1,637,459 股，约占公司总股本 1,302,622,626 股的 0.1257%，公司董事万创奇先生持有公司股票 1,229,921 股， 约占公司总股本 1,302,622,626 股的 0.0944%。上述股份来源于公司员工持股计 划取得的股份。 减持计划的实施结果情况 2025 年 03 月 04 日，公司在上海证券交易所网站披露了《卧龙电驱董事、 高级管理人员集中竞价减持股份计划公告》（公告编号：2025-022），黎明先生 计划通过集中竞价减持不超过 409,364 股, 减持比例不超过公司总股本的 0.0314%。万创奇先生计划通过集中竞价交易减持不超过 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Heston Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The Heston model is used to calculate the implied volatility of near-month at-the-money options, serving as a market fear index. Implied volatility reflects market participants' expectations of future volatility [8]. - **Model Construction Process**: The Heston model is a stochastic volatility model where the variance of the asset price follows a mean-reverting square-root process. The model is defined by the following equations: $ dS_t = \mu S_t dt + \sqrt{v_t} S_t dW_t^1 $ $ dv_t = \kappa (\theta - v_t) dt + \sigma \sqrt{v_t} dW_t^2 $ Here: - \( S_t \): Asset price - \( v_t \): Variance - \( \mu \): Drift rate - \( \kappa \): Mean reversion speed - \( \theta \): Long-term variance - \( \sigma \): Volatility of variance - \( W_t^1, W_t^2 \): Correlated Wiener processes [8] 2. Model Name: Multi-Sector Timing Model (Scissor Difference Strategy) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the difference in the number of bullish and bearish signals among sector constituents to construct a timing strategy. If no bullish or bearish signals are present, the scissor difference is set to zero. The model aims to outperform sector indices [16]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Count the number of bullish and bearish signals for each sector's constituent stocks daily. - Compute the scissor difference as the difference between bullish and bearish signals. - If both counts are zero, the scissor difference is set to zero. - Construct a timing strategy based on the scissor difference ratio [16]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model historically outperformed all sector indices, demonstrating excellent backtesting performance [16]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Heston Model - **Implied Volatility Results**: - SSE 50: 11.85% (down 0.88% WoW) - SSE 500: 14.35% (down 1.59% WoW) - CSI 1000: 18.06% (down 0.42% WoW) - CSI 300: 12.64% (down 0.73% WoW) [10] 2. Multi-Sector Timing Model - **Sector Outperformance**: The model outperformed all sector indices, achieving a 100% success rate in backtesting [16]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Shape-Based Timing Signals - **Factor Construction Idea**: Shape-based signals are derived from historical K-line patterns, including bullish patterns (e.g., "Golden Needle Bottom," "Rocket Launch," "Manjianghong") and bearish patterns (e.g., "Hanging Line," "Paradise Line," "Dark Cloud Cover"). These patterns indicate potential price reversals [24]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Identify specific K-line patterns based on predefined criteria. - Evaluate the historical performance of these patterns in predicting price movements. - Use the patterns to generate timing signals for individual stocks [24]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Bullish patterns like "Golden Needle Bottom" and "Rocket Launch" demonstrated strong positive predictive power [24]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Shape-Based Timing Signals - **Signal Statistics**: - Positive signals: 2,699 occurrences, with an average future high-point success rate of 28.25% - Negative signals: 3,525 occurrences, with an average future low-point success rate of 71.88% [13] 2. Sector Timing Signals - **Bullish Sectors**: Home Appliances, Comprehensive, Communication, Textile & Apparel, Consumer Services, Transportation, Petrochemicals [19] 3. Stock-Specific Signals - **Consecutive Bullish Signals**: - 5-day signals: Stocks like Kailong Co. and Shipu Testing [21] - 4-day signals: Stocks like Jiangnan Chemical, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and Nandu Property [22][23] - **Special Bullish Patterns**: - Stocks like Retired Longyu ("Arrow on the String") and Suotong Development ("Manjianghong") [25][26] 4. Broker Gold Stock Signals - **Highlighted Stocks**: BYD, Feilihua, Wancheng Group, Sichuan Road & Bridge, Wolong Electric Drive, Lansheng Co., PetroChina, Dongpeng Beverage [29][33]

- The report focuses on monitoring the capital behavior of the rare earth industry, emphasizing its strategic importance in high-end manufacturing, new energy, and defense technology[2][10] - The CSI Rare Earth Industry Index (930598.CSI), composed of 42 A-share listed companies involved in the rare earth industry, has risen by 18.06% in 2025 and 10.09% since April 7, 2025[2][12][13] - Public fund holdings in the rare earth sector are at their lowest level since 2018, based on real-time calculations using public market information such as fund net value, disclosed holdings, and research activities[3][17] - ETF holdings in the rare earth sector are at a historical high, accounting for 3.8% of the sector's market value as of Q1 2025, reflecting the growing trend of index investment in the A-share market[3][19][20] - Margin financing in the rare earth sector has remained stable in 2025, while short selling levels are relatively low, indicating a positive market outlook among investors[3][22][24] - Institutional research activities have been most frequent for companies like Wolong Electric, JL MAG Rare-Earth, and Shenghe Resources in 2025[3][25][27] - Key stocks such as Guangsheng Nonferrous, China Rare Earth, and Keheng Co. have garnered the highest attention from influential users on the Xueqiu platform, highlighting their market interest[3][28][30] - Major funds have shown significant net inflows into stocks like Lingyi iTech, Guangsheng Nonferrous, and Aluminum Corporation of China since June 1, 2025, based on large and ultra-large order data[3][30][31] - Stocks such as Yingluohua, Keheng Co., and Jiuling Technology have frequently appeared on the Dragon and Tiger List since June 1, 2025, indicating active trading by major market players[3][32][33] - High-frequency shareholder data reveals that companies like Wolong Electric, Huahong Technology, and Yunlu Co. have experienced the highest increases in shareholder numbers, which may signal potential risks for subsequent stock price movements[3][35][36]