Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights structural growth opportunities in new products and channels within the consumer goods sector, particularly in the context of the 25Q3 performance forecast [2] - The performance of various sub-sectors is expected to vary, with specific companies showing significant growth potential due to category advantages and new channel expansions [10][12][14][15][16][19][21][22] Sub-sector Summaries 1.1 Snack Foods - The performance in 25Q3 is expected to be differentiated, with companies like Wanchen Group projected to achieve a revenue growth of 39% and a net profit growth of 382% [2][25] - Emphasis is placed on companies that can leverage category trends and new channel opportunities for sustained growth [10][11] 1.2 Soft Drinks - The energy drink segment is showing improved market conditions, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage expected to see a revenue growth of 31% and a net profit growth of 33% [2][25] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong brand power and channel capabilities for long-term growth [12][13] 1.3 Dairy Products - The dairy sector is anticipated to experience flat demand in 25Q3, with companies like Yili expected to see only a 2% revenue growth [2][25] - The report indicates that profitability may improve once raw milk prices stabilize [14] 1.4 Tea Drinks - The market is characterized by a leading player, Mixue Group, which is expected to expand its competitive edge through enhanced product offerings [2][15] - The mid-price segment is highlighted as a key growth area, with recommendations for companies like Guming [15] 1.5 Health Supplements - The report notes a trend towards increased concentration in the B-end market, with companies like Xianle Health projected to achieve a revenue growth of 15% [2][25] - The C-end market is advised to focus on high-growth single products [16][17] 1.6 Ready-to-Drink Alcohol - The performance in 25Q3 is expected to be strong, with companies like Bairun expected to see an 8% revenue growth [2][25] - New product launches are anticipated to drive sales growth [18] 1.7 Beer - The impact of the "drinking ban" is expected to be limited, with Qingdao Beer projected to achieve a 2% revenue growth and an 8% net profit growth [2][25] - The report suggests that the beer sector will see stable growth driven by structural upgrades and cost improvements [19][20] 1.8 Condiments - Leading companies like Haitian Flavoring are expected to maintain stable performance, with a revenue growth of 7% [2][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of robust market strategies during periods of flat demand [21] 1.9 Frozen Foods - The sector is facing weak demand, with companies like Anjixin expected to see a 6% revenue growth [2][25] - The report advises monitoring the recovery of the restaurant supply chain for potential investment opportunities [22][23] 1.10 Marinated Products - The focus is on improving store operations as the sector continues to recover from previous challenges [24] Key Company Tracking - The report provides a detailed forecast for various companies across different segments, highlighting expected revenue and net profit growth rates for 25Q3 [25]

央广网万宁10月11日消息（记者 蔡文娟）10月12日晚7点，2025万宁热浪消费季暨青岛啤酒嘉年华将在万宁市文化体育广场火热启幕。届时，这场持续9天 的嘉年华活动，将有"吃、展、演、游、购、娱"六大板块轮番上阵，让大家在"双节"后继续嗨玩不停。 往届活动现场（央广网发 受访者供图） 据活动组委会有关负责人介绍，本次活动最大亮点在于对"票根经济"模式的创新探索：市民游客无需购票即可入场，现场各商户还搭配了诸多专属优惠，从 而形成一个"消费—观演—再消费"的完整闭环。这一创新旨在尝试探索文旅消费新模式，通过将优质演艺资源、啤酒文化与全域消费场景等有机结合，实现 市场主体互利共赢，助力地方政府真正将文旅产业打造成为支柱产业、民生产业、幸福产业。 往届活动现场（央广网发 受访者供图） 本次活动由央广网文化传媒（海南）有限公司主办，万宁市旅游和文化广电体育局、万宁市商务局指导，青岛啤酒等支持。目前，活动各项筹备工作已基本 就绪。10月12日—20日，每天晚上7点—10点，我们不见不散！ 往届活动现场（央广网发 受访者供图） 本次活动以啤酒为媒，旨在融合文化、旅游、经贸等多领域元素，深挖音乐、美食文化为旅游赋能添韵，打 ...

Core Insights - Qingdao's market regulatory authorities are actively enforcing compliance to protect consumer rights and maintain market order during the holiday season [1][2] - Five typical violations have been reported, highlighting issues in food safety, misleading advertising, and excessive packaging [1][2] Group 1: Regulatory Actions - Qingdao's market regulators conducted all-day inspections focusing on key areas such as measuring instruments, popular food items, and safety guarantees [1] - Five cases of violations have been reported and are under investigation for administrative penalties [2] Group 2: Specific Violations - A restaurant in the Shinan District was found using non-compliant electronic scales, violating the Shandong Provincial Measurement Regulations, which directly impacts consumer interests [1] - A business in the Licang District sold other brands of beer from a machine labeled for Qingdao Beer, violating the Anti-Unfair Competition Law, potentially misleading consumers and harming the brand's image [1] - A guesthouse in the Jimo District operated without a food business license, violating the Food Safety Law, raising concerns about food safety and consumer health risks [1] - A hotel management company was cited for selling excessively packaged mooncake gift boxes, violating mandatory standards on excessive packaging and environmental protection laws [2] - An elevator technology company failed to maintain an elevator according to safety standards and provided false maintenance records, violating the Special Equipment Safety Law, posing risks to passenger safety [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese beer industry is experiencing structural transformation and high-quality development, driven by consumption upgrades and the young demographic becoming the core market engine [1][6] - The industry has moved past a period of declining production, showing a clear trend of "stable volume and improved quality" [1][6] Market Overview - In the first ten months of 2024, retail sales of tobacco and alcohol grew by 6.1%, outpacing the overall growth of consumer goods [1][15] - Beer production has rebounded since hitting a low in 2021, maintaining steady growth for four consecutive years, with 2023 seeing low inventory levels and strong confidence among distributors [1][16] - The top five brands (China Resources, Tsingtao, Yanjing, Chongqing, and Zhujiang) control over 70% of the market share, with positive growth in sales, revenue, and net profit in 2023 [1][22] Consumer Demand Trends - The beer market is evolving from a simple alcoholic beverage to a social medium for young consumers, with a significant increase in social media engagement around beer [2] - The "micro-drunk economy" is gaining traction, with beer consumption becoming more about experience rather than just drinking [2] - Flavor innovation and health consciousness are driving product diversification, with traditional yellow beer still dominant but white beer and fruit-flavored beers gaining popularity [2][3] Health and Wellness Trends - The demand for low-alcohol and non-alcoholic beers is rising, with the global market for these products valued at 94.07 billion yuan in 2023, expected to grow by 4% by 2027 [3] - Non-alcoholic beers like Qingdao's non-alcoholic white beer are catering to health-conscious consumers and those with alcohol sensitivities [3] Marketing and Distribution Innovations - Digital marketing and scenario-based innovations are prominent, with platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu becoming key for brand promotion [4] - Instant retail is reshaping beer consumption, with brands like Snow Beer and Tsingtao enhancing delivery services to meet consumer demand for immediate access [5] - The rise of experiential marketing through beer festivals and music events is strengthening brand engagement with younger audiences [5] Future Outlook - The Chinese beer industry is shifting from "scale-driven" to "value-driven," focusing on product innovation, channel transformation, and deepening consumer engagement [6] - The market is expected to continue evolving with a focus on personalized and diverse consumer needs, particularly among younger demographics [6]

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock's holding in Qingdao Beer H shares decreased from 7.42% to 6.72% as of September 25 [1] Company Summary - BlackRock's stake reduction indicates a shift in investment strategy or market sentiment towards Qingdao Beer [1]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 青島啤酒股份有限公司 (在中華人民共和國註冊成立之中外合資股份有限公司) 呈交日期: 2025年10月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 600600 | 說明 | A股 | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 709,127,610 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 709,127,610 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 709,127,610 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 709,127,610 | | 2. 股份 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [6] Core Views - The high-end liquor prices have rebounded, which may temporarily boost market confidence. The current Shenyin Wanguo white liquor index PE-TTM is at 18.66X, which is 3.13% lower than the reasonable level over the past decade. The dividend returns from leading liquor companies are attractive, and consumer spending is expected to gradually recover, suggesting a focus on recovery opportunities in the sector [1][13][19]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From September 22 to September 26, the food and beverage sector declined by 2.49%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.21% and the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.07%. Specific sub-sectors include soft drinks (+0.86%), meat products (-0.02%), beer (-0.77%), snacks (-1.33%), and others [20]. Weekly Updates - **Liquor**: The white liquor sector fell by 3.03%, underperforming the overall food and beverage sector. High-end liquor prices have increased, with Feitian Moutai rising by 90 yuan per bottle over five days. Despite slight pressure on consumption, the price increase may boost market confidence [1][13]. - **Yellow Wine**: Key players like Kuaijishan and Guyuelongshan saw declines of 5.80% and 2.24%, respectively. The sector is entering a verification phase for product distribution and sales [2]. - **Beer**: The beer sector decreased by 0.77%. Notable companies include Qingdao Beer (+0.2%) and Yanjing Beer (+1.7%). Future consumption policies are expected to drive sales recovery [2][14]. - **Soft Drinks**: The soft drink sector showed positive performance, with significant gains from companies like Yangyuan Beverage (+32.49%) and Jinziham (+11.93%). The sector remains attractive due to ongoing trends [3][15]. Investment Recommendations - **White Liquor**: Focus on three main lines: strong beta stocks (e.g., Jiugui Liquor, Shui Jing Fang), recovery concept stocks (e.g., Yingjia Gongjiu), and strong alpha stocks (e.g., Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai) [19]. - **Beer**: Emphasize three main lines: sustained growth stocks (e.g., Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring), potential performance rebound stocks (e.g., Angel Yeast), and category expansion stocks (e.g., Kuaijishan) [19]. Sector and Individual Stock Performance - The food and beverage sector's dynamic PE ratio is 21.0 times, ranking 22nd among primary industries. The soft drink sector has the highest valuation increase this week, while the health product sector saw the smallest decrease [28]. Key Data Tracking - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.03 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.50%. The decline in prices has been narrowing since the beginning of the year [18].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the consumer staples sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - The wholesale prices of Baijiu have mostly declined, with notable decreases in prices for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, while prices for most consumer goods remain stable [4][10]. - The report highlights a significant drop in the discount rates for liquid milk products, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [6][18]. - Overall, the report suggests that the impact of funds is greater, advising attention to low-position stocks and heavyweight stocks in the consumer staples sector [8]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Pricing - Guizhou Moutai's wholesale prices for Feitian (case and single bottle) are 1790 and 1770 yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 55 and 70 yuan from the previous month [4][37]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price is 895 yuan, down 25 yuan from last month [4][37]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 price increased by 10 yuan to 850 yuan [4][37]. Consumer Goods Pricing - The average discount rate for liquid milk products decreased from 74.8% to 69.4% since the end of August [6][21]. - Discount rates for soft drinks, condiments, instant foods, and beer remained stable, with slight variations in average and median values [19][35]. - The report notes that the discount rate for infant formula products also showed a minor decrease from 89.5% to 88.7% [21][35]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring low-position stocks and heavyweight stocks due to the greater impact of funds on the market [8].

Core Insights - The "Love Chongqing · Autumn Consumption Season" event, featuring the 2025 Chongqing Fengjie Qingdao Beer Festival, aims to enhance regional collaboration and stimulate local consumption [1][3] Group 1: Event Overview - The festival is organized by the Fengjie County Government and supported by Qingdao Beer Co., showcasing a blend of food, culture, and entertainment [1][3] - The event includes ten themed nights, offering diverse consumer experiences and promoting local products [3][4] Group 2: Economic Impact - The beer festival aligns with the city's strategy to boost consumption, aiming to unlock the economic potential of the National Day holiday [3] - It serves as a platform to promote local agricultural products and support rural revitalization efforts [3] Group 3: Cultural and Culinary Highlights - Fengjie is positioned as a "food landmark city," promoting its culinary brand with notable dishes featured at the festival [4] - The event will include 15 gourmet food stalls and link to local tourist attractions, enhancing the overall visitor experience [4] Group 4: Brand Engagement - Qingdao Beer, as a leading brand in the Chinese beer industry, will contribute to the event with cultural exhibitions and interactive activities [4] - The festival will distribute 3,000 beer vouchers, creating a consumption loop that integrates dining and tourism [4]

Core Viewpoint - The city of Qingdao's Shibei District is launching a series of cultural and tourism consumption activities in October, themed "Encountering Autumn Fireworks in Shibei," to celebrate the 76th anniversary of the People's Republic of China and the Mid-Autumn Festival, aiming to create a rich and diverse holiday tourism environment for citizens and tourists [1] Group 1: Cruise Tourism Development - Qingdao International Cruise Home Port is the only professional cruise terminal in Shandong Province, serving as a core platform for developing cruise economy and promoting high-quality inbound tourism [2] - The district will host foreign tourists from the cruise ship "招商伊敦号" on October 14 and 19, with over 1,000 visitors from countries like the USA and Australia, offering themed shore excursions to iconic attractions in Qingdao [2] Group 2: Diverse Activity Matrix - A variety of sports events and cultural tourism activities will take place in October, including the 2025 National Youth Parkour Championship from October 24-26, attracting top national athletes [3] - The opening of the first interactive technology exhibition themed on "High-Speed Rail" at the CRRC Sifang Cultural Technology Museum invites visitors to explore China's high-speed rail technology [3] - The Qingdao Beer Museum will host a special immersive experience during the National Day holiday, along with a "Mid-Autumn Mooncake Culture Exhibition" featuring cultural mooncakes and intangible cultural heritage crafts [3][4] Group 3: Enhanced Consumption Scenes - The district will upgrade consumption scenes to provide innovative and diverse cultural tourism products, including XR interactive experiences at various venues [5] - Special consumption scenes like "波螺油子·拾贰阶" and Qingdao Beer Exchange will be developed to enhance consumer engagement and loyalty [6] - New tourism routes will be launched to promote daytime and nighttime tourism habits among visitors, integrating various cultural and entertainment resources [6] Group 4: Consumer Incentives - The "惠享市北" initiative will distribute nearly 10,000 consumer vouchers through digital platforms, covering major cinema chains and promoting cultural consumption [7] - Special discounts and integrated experiences will be offered at various museums and cultural venues, enhancing the overall cultural experience for visitors [7] - Major commercial districts will implement exclusive promotional policies to stimulate consumption across diverse sectors, including food and cultural products [7]