[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/食品/饮料 证券研究报告 山西汾酒（600809）公司季报点评 2024年04月29日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 费用管控效果良好，盈利能力持续提升 股票数据 [Table_Summary] 0[4Ta月b2le6_日S收to盘ck价（In元fo）] 252.29 投资要点： 52周股价波动（元） 183.95-263.88 总股本/流通A股（百万股） 1220/1220  事件。公司发布 2023 年报：2023 年公司实现营业总收入 319.28 亿元，同 总市值/流通市值（百万元） 307785/307785 比+21.8%，归母净利润104.38亿元，同比+28.9%，其中Q4单季公司实现 相关研究 营业总收入51.84亿元，同比+27.4%，归母净利润10.07亿元，同比+2.0%。 [《Ta控b量le挺_R价e增p长or稳tIn健fo，] 费用管控释放利润弹 同时公布2023年利润分配方案，每10股派发现金红利43.7元（含税），分 性》2023.10.29 红率为51.1%。 《青花系列快速增长，Q2 盈利端表现 ...

证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 2024年4月29日 股票投资评级 山西汾酒(600809) 23 年圆满收官，24 开年收入符合预期、利润超预 买入|维持 期，实现高质量开门红 个股表现 ⚫ 事件 公司发布2023年年报、2024年一季报。2023年。公司实现营业 山西汾酒 食品饮料 11% 总收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润 319.28/104.38/104.45 亿元， 8% 同比+21.8%/+28.93%/+29.15%。公司单Q4实现营业总收入/归母净利 5% 2% 润/扣非归母净利润51.84/10.07/10.17亿元，同比+27.38%/+1.96%/ -1% -4% +3.22%。2023年公司分红率为51.07%，同比+1.04pct。公司2023年 -7% -10% 圆满收官。2024年Q1公司实现营业总收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净 -13% -16% 利润153.38/62.62/62.61亿元，同比+20.94%/+29.95%/+30.08%。24Q1 -19% -22% 收入符合预期、利润超预期，实现高质量开门红。 2023-05 2023-07 2023-09 2 ...

食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 公 司 研 山西汾酒（600809.SH） 成长势能不减，业绩弹性持续 究 2024年04月29日 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 张宇光（分析师） 逄晓娟（分析师） 张恒玮（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn pangxiaojuan@kysec.cn zhanghengwei@kysec.cn 日期 2024/4/26 证 书编号：S0790520030003 证书编号：S0790521060002 证书编号：S0790524010001 当前股价(元) 252.29  高端化、全国化成长势能强劲，业绩增速超预期，维持“买入”评级 公 一年最高最低(元) 263.88/183.95 2023 年营收 319.3 亿元，同比+21.8%，归母净利润 104.4 亿元，同比+28.9%。 司 信 总市值(亿元) 3,077.85 2024Q1收入153.4亿元，同比+20.9%，归母净利润62.6亿元，同比+30.0%。收 息 流通市值(亿元) 3,077.85 入符合预期，业绩超预期，我们维持 2024-2025 年盈利预测，并新增 2026 年盈 更 总 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年04月29日 山西汾酒（600809.SH） 买入 一季度收入增长 21%，品牌势能持续释放 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 2023年顺利完成经营计划，青花品牌势能持续释放。2023年，山西汾酒势 食品饮料·白酒Ⅱ 能持续释放，青花系列销售占比逆势提升至46%，青花20打造成百亿大单品， 证券分析师：张向伟 证券分析师：李文华 长江以南市场增长超 30%。2023 年，中高价位/其他酒实现营收同比 021-60375461 zhangxiangwei@guosen.com.cnliwenhua2@guosen.com.cn +22.6%/20.2%，预计青花20和25保持较快增长，青花30·复兴版小幅度增 S0980523090001 S0980523070002 长，腰部产品增速位于平衡增速附近。2023Q4整体毛利率同比+3.0pcts，预 联系人：张未艾 计系玻汾配额投放完毕、青花系列占比提升（上年同期玻汾投放较多）。 021-61761031 zhangweiai@guosen.com.cn 2023Q4税金及附加率同比+5.9pcts，预计系生产节奏扰动。2023Q4销售 ...

[Table_StockInfo] 买入 2024年 04月 26日 （维持） 证券研究报告•23年报及24年一季报点评 当前价： 252.29元 山西汾酒（600809） 食品饮料 目标价： ——元（6个月） 23 年靓丽收官，24Q1 如期高增 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [T ab事le件_S：u公mm司a2ry0]2 3年实现收入 319.3亿元，同比+21.8%，归母净利润 104.4亿 [分Ta析bl师e_：Au朱th会or振] 元，同比+28.9%；其中23单Q4实现收入 51.8亿元，同比+27.4%，归母净利 执业证号：S1250513110001 润 10.1亿元，同比+1.9%。此外，公司拟每10股派发现金红利43.7元（含税）。 电话：023-63786049 24Q1实现收入153.4亿元，同比+20.9%，归母净利润62.6亿元，同比+29.9%， 邮箱：zhz@swsc.com.cn 24Q1收入端符合预期，利润端略超市场预期。 分析师：王书龙  产品结构持续升级，省外市场增速亮眼。1、分价位看，中高价酒、其他酒类分 别实现营收 232.0亿元（+22.6%）、85.4亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu with a target price of 295 CNY, compared to the last closing price of 245.58 CNY [1][4]. Core Insights - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue of 31.928 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 21.80%, and a net profit of 10.438 billion CNY, up 28.93% year-on-year. For Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 15.338 billion CNY, a 20.94% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.262 billion CNY, reflecting a 29.95% year-on-year growth [4][5]. - The growth momentum of the Qinghua series is strong, with its revenue contribution reaching 46% and a growth rate of approximately 25%-30%. The company has established a dedicated division for Qinghua 30 to enhance high-end product marketing [4][6]. - The company aims for a revenue growth target of around 20% for 2024, with expectations for Qinghua 20 to become a billion-level product [4][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Shanxi Fenjiu's revenue was 31.928 billion CNY, with a net profit of 10.438 billion CNY. For 2024, the expected revenue is 38.594 billion CNY, with a projected net profit of 13.402 billion CNY, indicating a growth rate of 20.88% and 28.40% respectively [5][6]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 75.31%, with an increase to 77.46% in Q1 2024 due to price adjustments and product structure optimization [4][6]. Product and Market Analysis - The mid-to-high-end liquor segment generated 23.203 billion CNY in revenue, growing by 22.56% year-on-year, while other liquor products contributed 8.540 billion CNY, with a growth of 20.15% [4][5]. - The company has 3,940 distributors as of the end of 2023, with a net increase of 303 distributors, indicating a robust distribution network [4][6]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenue growth of 21% for 2024, 17% for 2025, and 16% for 2026, with net profit growth of 28%, 22%, and 16% respectively [4][5]. - The report highlights the potential for the Qinghua series to drive future growth, particularly with the introduction of new high-end products [4][6].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [1] Core Views - Revenue and performance in 2023 met expectations, with a significant increase in prepayments likely driven by the price hike of Qinghua 20 [2] - Strong mid-to-high-end consumption during the Spring Festival, with a notable product structure in Q1 2024 [2] - Synchronous development in both domestic and external markets in 2023, with faster growth in external markets in Q1 2024 [2] - Profitability optimization driven by gross margin improvement or sales expense ratio reduction [3] - Continued deepening of marketing reforms, solid market foundation, and accelerated channel expansion in 2023 [3] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue and net profit were RMB 31,928 million and RMB 10,438 million, up 21.80% and 28.93% YoY respectively [2] - Q1 2024 revenue and net profit were RMB 15,338 million and RMB 6,262 million, up 20.94% and 29.95% YoY respectively [2] - Gross margin and net margin in 2023 were 75.31% and 32.76%, with a slight decrease in gross margin and an increase in net margin [3] - Q1 2024 gross margin and net margin were 77.46% and 40.86%, up 1.90pcts and 2.75pcts YoY respectively [3] Market and Product Structure - Mid-to-high-end liquor revenue in 2023 was RMB 23,203 million, up 22.56% YoY, while other liquor revenue was RMB 8,540 million, up 20.15% YoY [2] - Q1 2024 mid-to-high-end liquor revenue was RMB 11,860 million, up 24.90% YoY, while other liquor revenue was RMB 3,436 million, up 9.88% YoY [2] - Domestic revenue in 2023 was RMB 12,084 million, up 20.41% YoY, while external revenue was RMB 19,659 million, up 22.84% YoY [2] - Q1 2024 domestic revenue was RMB 5,597 million, up 11.44% YoY, while external revenue was RMB 9,700 million, up 27.61% YoY [2] Financial Forecasts - Expected revenue for 2024-2026: RMB 38,902 million, RMB 46,773 million, and RMB 56,142 million [3] - Expected net profit for 2024-2026: RMB 13,284 million, RMB 16,370 million, and RMB 19,994 million [3] - Current PE ratios for 2024-2026: 23.2x, 18.8x, and 15.4x [3] Analyst Background - Xiong Peng, head of DBS Securities' consumer group and chief analyst for the food and beverage industry, with 6 years of industry research experience [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) [4] Core Views - Shanxi Fenjiu's 2023 annual report and 2024 Q1 report show strong performance, with total revenue of 31.928 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, and a net profit of 10.438 billion yuan, up 28.93% [2] - The company aims for a revenue growth target of around 20% for 2024, indicating a continuation of high-quality development [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reached 23.2 billion yuan, growing by 22.6%, while other liquor categories generated 8.54 billion yuan, up 20.2% [2] - For Q1 2024, total revenue was 15.338 billion yuan, a 20.94% increase year-on-year, with net profit at 6.262 billion yuan, reflecting a 29.95% growth [2] - The sales gross margin for 2023 and Q1 2024 was 75.31% and 77.46%, respectively, showing a slight increase due to the rising proportion of the Qinghua series [3] Market Dynamics - The Qinghua series accounted for 46% of total sales in 2023, with its revenue growth significantly outpacing the company's average [2] - Revenue from domestic and foreign markets in 2023 was 12.08 billion yuan and 19.66 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 20.4% and 22.8% [2] Profitability and Cash Flow - The net profit margin for 2023 was 32.8%, increasing to 40.9% in Q1 2024, indicating improved profitability [3] - Cash flow from operating activities for Q1 2024 was 7.04 billion yuan, a 105.1% increase year-on-year, highlighting strong cash flow generation [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit in 2024 and 2025 is adjusted to 13.08 billion yuan and 15.52 billion yuan, respectively, with an EPS of 10.72 yuan and 12.72 yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 23 for 2024, 19 for 2025, and 16 for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation [4]

山西汾酒：业绩符合预期，持续成长的清香龙头 山西汾酒（600809.SH）/食品饮 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年4月26日 料 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级bl：e_买Tit入le（] 维持） [公Ta司bl盈e_利Fin预an测ce及1] 估值 市场价格：245.58元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 26,214 31,928 38,661 45,926 54,109 分析师：范劲松 增长率yoy% 31.26% 21.80% 21.09% 18.79% 17.82% 执业证书编号：S0740517030001 净利润（百万元） 8,096 10,438 13,026 15,879 19,026 电话：021-20315138 增长率yoy% 52.36% 28.93% 24.80% 21.90% 19.82% 每股收益（元） 6.64 2.55 10.68 13.01 15.59 Email：fanjs@zts.com.cn 每股现金流量 8.45 5.92 11.62 9.85 16.72 分析师：何长天 净资产收益率 37. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][2]. Core Views - The company successfully closed 2023 with strong performance, and the operational momentum is expected to continue into 2024 [1]. - The high-end product series, particularly the Qinghua series, continues to lead sales growth, contributing significantly to revenue [1][2]. - The company aims for a revenue growth of approximately 20% in 2024, targeting 38.3 billion yuan [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 319.28 billion yuan, 104.38 billion yuan, and 104.45 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 21.8%, 28.93%, and 29.15% [1]. - In Q4 2023, the company reported revenue of 51.84 billion yuan, net profit of 10.07 billion yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 10.17 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.38%, 1.96%, and 3.22% [1]. - For Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 153.38 billion yuan, net profit of 62.62 billion yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 62.61 billion yuan, with year-on-year increases of 20.94%, 29.95%, and 30.08% [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 388.15 billion yuan, 470.10 billion yuan, and 567.55 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.6%, 21.1%, and 20.7% [2][3]. - The forecasted net profits for the same years are 130.79 billion yuan, 160.14 billion yuan, and 195.26 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.3%, 22.4%, and 21.9% [2][3]. Market and Product Strategy - The company is focusing on high-end and national expansion strategies to ensure performance certainty, with an emphasis on digital marketing and brand building [2]. - The Qinghua series is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driving improvements in the company's product mix [2].