Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector, particularly the baijiu industry, is experiencing a downturn, with significant declines in stock prices for major companies, indicating a potential industry shift and the need for market restructuring [1] Industry Summary - On September 19, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03% to 3830.65 points, while the baijiu sector closed at 2299.94 points, down 0.67% [1] - Among 15 baijiu stocks, the majority experienced declines, with Shui Jing Fang leading the drop at 2.20% [1] - Major companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao saw their stock prices decrease by 0.15%, 0.40%, 1.40%, and a slight decline respectively [1] Company Summary - According to招商证券, the second quarter has seen an accelerated clearing in the baijiu industry, particularly among second and third-tier companies, while leading firms show resilience [1] - The financial reports of leading liquor companies will serve as a critical signal for an industry turning point, which may lead to a restructuring of the industry and distribution channels [1]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is experiencing a significant market adjustment, with second and third-tier companies facing substantial challenges, while leading companies show resilience, indicating a potential turning point for the industry [1] Industry Summary - On September 19, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03% to 3830.65 points, with the liquor sector closing at 2299.94 points, down 0.67% [1] - Among 15 liquor stocks, the majority declined, with Shui Jing Fang leading the drop at 2.20% [1] - Key liquor companies' stock performance included: - Kweichow Moutai: closed at 1465.71 CNY, down 0.15% - Wuliangye: closed at 123.45 CNY, down 0.40% - Shanxi Fenjiu: closed at 198.18 CNY, down 1.40% - Luzhou Laojiao: closed at 133.17 CNY, down 0.40% - Yanghe: closed at 70.25 CNY, up 0.17% [1] Company Summary - According to China Merchants Securities, the second quarter saw an accelerated market clearing in the liquor industry, with a thorough exit of second and third-tier companies [1] - Leading liquor companies are expected to show improved financial statements, which will serve as a critical signal for the industry's turning point, potentially reshaping market expectations across the industry, channels, and capital markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is approaching a critical seasonal test in Q3 2025, with cautious market sentiment prevailing. Goldman Sachs predicts that Q3 2025 may represent a low point in valuation for the industry, with some stocks already reflecting a "bottoming" expectation. Target prices for leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye have been adjusted upwards [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The liquor industry is facing dual pressures from ongoing anti-extravagance policies and a reduction in the length of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, leading to weakened retail momentum [2]. - Companies are focusing on inventory normalization through measures such as waiving prepayments and controlling shipment volumes, which may pressure short-term performance but help return inventory levels to normal [2]. - Despite a significant decline in wholesale prices for Moutai and Wuliangye, some retailers have slightly increased end prices in anticipation of brand-controlled inventory to support profits [2][3]. Group 2: Valuation and Stock Performance - The stock prices of liquor companies have risen by 24% since Q3, with a 17% increase in price-to-earnings ratios, indicating that the market has already absorbed the impact of policy changes [2]. - The average target price for liquor stocks has been raised by 6%, with mid-to-high-end liquor valuation multiples adjusted upwards by 13% to 19% [2]. - The high dividend yields of leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye provide a valuation safety net, with potential price increases of 20% to 30% based on normalized earnings projections for 2027 [4]. Group 3: Company-Specific Adjustments - Moutai's target price has been adjusted from 1742 yuan to 1724 yuan, reflecting a 3% to 4% decrease in earnings expectations due to policy impacts [5]. - Wuliangye's target price has been raised from 139 yuan to 145 yuan, despite a 5% to 8% reduction in earnings expectations, as its valuation multiple has been increased from 17 times to 18.5 times [5]. - Other companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Gujing Gongjiu have also seen adjustments in their target prices and earnings expectations, reflecting varying degrees of resilience and market conditions [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The current "low point" in Q3 is viewed as a critical phase for the industry, with inventory control measures potentially laying the groundwork for recovery in 2026 as policies ease [6]. - Investment recommendations focus on leading companies with strong dividend yields and brand strength, as well as those with significant valuation adjustments and earnings resilience [7].

Group 1: Market Performance - The food and beverage sector experienced a significant pullback on September 18, with the Food ETF (515710) dropping over 2% during intraday trading before closing down 1.41% [1] - Major liquor stocks, including Shede Liquor, Yanghe Brewery, and Luzhou Laojiao, saw declines exceeding 2%, while leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye fell over 1% [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Despite the recent pullback, there has been a notable influx of capital into the food and beverage sector, with the Food ETF (515710) recording a net subscription of 24.1 million CNY over the past five trading days [1] - The food and beverage sector is currently viewed as having a favorable valuation, with the Food ETF's underlying index PE ratio at 21.12, placing it at a low point historically [4] Group 3: Industry Outlook - Kweichow Moutai ranked third in the Kantar BrandZ Most Valuable Chinese Brands 2025 list, with a brand value of 80.023 billion USD, marking its sixth consecutive year in the top three [3] - Analysts suggest that as policy pressures ease, there is potential for a weak recovery in demand for liquor, particularly with the upcoming holiday season expected to improve sales [3][6] - The liquor industry is seen as being at a low valuation point, with expectations for gradual improvement in fundamentals as the market stabilizes [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced a collective decline on September 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.15% to 3831.66 points, and the liquor sector also faced a downturn, indicating potential challenges in the industry despite the upcoming consumption peak during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [1]. Industry Summary - The liquor sector index closed at 2315.48 points, down 1.60%, with all 20 liquor stocks declining by over 1% [1]. - Major liquor companies saw significant stock price drops: Kweichow Moutai (600519) closed at 1467.96 CNY per share, down 1.68%; Wuliangye (000858) at 123.94 CNY, down 1.60%; Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) at 201.00 CNY, down 1.69%; Luzhou Laojiao (000568) at 133.70 CNY, down 2.41%; and Yanghe Brewery (002304) at 70.13 CNY, down 2.04% [1]. - According to Pacific Securities, while terminal sales are expected to recover on a month-on-month basis due to the approaching consumption peak, year-on-year sales pressure remains significant due to economic and policy factors. It is anticipated that products priced below 300 CNY will perform better than those above 500 CNY [1].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor sector is experiencing a shift in pricing logic, indicating that it may no longer be considered a cyclical growth stock, with future stock price gains expected to come from stable performance increments and appropriate dividends [1] Market Performance - On September 18, the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3893.95 points, rising by 0.45% - The white liquor sector closed at 2344.99 points, down by 0.35%, with 17 stocks in the sector declining [1] Individual Stock Performance - Kweichow Moutai closed at 1485.40 CNY per share, down by 0.51% - Wuliangye closed at 125.15 CNY per share, down by 0.64% - Shanxi Fenjiu closed at 203.29 CNY per share, down by 0.57% - Luzhou Laojiao closed at 135.39 CNY per share, down by 1.18% - Yanghe Brewery closed at 70.89 CNY per share, down by 0.98% [1] Analyst Insights - Guotai Junan Securities suggests that the pricing logic in the white liquor industry will undergo a trend change, moving away from being a cyclical growth stock [1]

来源：文轩财经 对此，文轩指数推出2025上半年白酒企业活力排名，活力是企业发展的必备条件，是创新和适应市场变化的内在能力，我们从多项数据维度评判 白酒企业的活力指数，试图探究白酒行业的一些发展趋势。 01 行业"开心"玩家越来越少了 虽然，当前白酒行业处于"量减、收平、利降"的调整期，头部企业营收增速放缓，不少酒企更是出现下跌，这更需要企业在行业逆境之中拔开云 雾！ 2025上半年，22家上市白酒企业中，6家保持了营收和净利润的双增长，包括贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古井贡酒、老白干酒和金徽酒。营收 超百亿的企业共6家，包括贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、泸州老窖、洋河股份、古井贡酒。 以汾酒为例，其青花汾酒30·复兴版升级款采用了"微氧呼吸结构"技术，在年轻化上，注重口感创新，通过开发轻酒饮、鼓励消费者进行创意调 饮，这也开辟了新的销售场景和用户；五粮液深耕微生物、风味物质等基础研究，并积极推动智能化生产，不断巩固其品质优势。 在研发投入上2025年，主要上市酒企的平均研发费用整体看有增无减，2025年上半年，五粮液研发费用2.1亿元， 同比增长31.2%；现代生物技术 复刻老窖泥工程技术的转化应用取得突破， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the liquor industry, particularly focusing on the international expansion of Chinese Baijiu [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that while Chinese Baijiu has been exported for over 40 years, it has not truly "gone global," with only 6.9 billion yuan in exports in 2024. The report highlights the challenges and opportunities in international markets, particularly in the context of rising global influence and the presence of a significant overseas Chinese population [4][7][8]. - The report identifies the need for Baijiu companies to address consumer decision-making processes and to enhance their marketing strategies to penetrate international markets effectively [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Baijiu Going Global: A Potential New Trend? - The report discusses the historical context of Baijiu exports, noting that initial attempts were limited due to cultural and taste differences. Recent years have seen increased internationalization efforts from leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye [8][9]. - The report outlines the current state of Baijiu exports, indicating a stable export volume of around 15,000 tons, with a focus on premium products driving growth [12][18]. 2. Challenges and Opportunities - The report identifies various challenges faced by Baijiu in international markets, including differing alcohol standards, cultural barriers, and limited consumer awareness. However, it also points out new opportunities arising from China's growing global influence and the potential market among overseas Chinese [7][8][9]. 3. Pathways to Success - The report suggests that Baijiu companies should focus on understanding consumer preferences and building brand narratives to enhance market penetration. It emphasizes the importance of targeted marketing strategies in regions like East Asia, Southeast Asia, and emerging markets [7][8][9]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye, which have shown strong international strategies and brand recognition. It also highlights the potential of other companies like Fenjiu and Laojiao, which are diversifying their product offerings and improving channel management [7][8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector is currently experiencing a dual bottom phase characterized by "fundamental bottoming and low valuation," with a gradual easing of previous policy pressures and a potential weak recovery in demand driven by consumption expansion policies [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On September 17, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.34 points, up 0.37% [1] - The liquor sector index closed at 2353.15 points, down 1.32%, with 18 liquor stocks declining, led by Jinhui Liquor which fell by 3.23% [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Kweichow Moutai closed at 1493.00 CNY per share, down 0.47% [1] - Wuliangye closed at 125.96 CNY per share, up 0.13% [1] - Shanxi Fenjiu closed at 204.45 CNY per share, down 1.89% [1] - Luzhou Laojiao closed at 137.00 CNY per share, down 1.05% [1] - Yanghe Brewery closed at 71.59 CNY per share, down 0.29% [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Pacific Securities noted that the liquor sector is in a phase of "fundamental bottoming and low valuation," suggesting a potential for recovery as policy pressures ease and consumption expansion policies take effect [1]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a recommendation for strong brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as Shanxi Fenjiu, which has a clear growth path in a counter-cyclical environment [5]. Core Insights - The industry is currently in a phase of accelerated bottoming, transitioning from "passive clearing" to "active adjustment" due to ongoing pressures from excess supply and demand scenarios [3][5]. - The first half of 2025 saw a negative growth in revenue and net profit for major liquor companies, marking the first negative growth in this cycle [15]. - The report highlights a structural opportunity during the volume adjustment period, with market pricing increasingly favoring dividend yield and market share [3][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The white liquor industry faced challenges in the first half of 2025, including slow macroeconomic recovery and strict alcohol prohibition policies, leading to a decline in consumption scenarios and continued pressure on demand [5]. - The overall revenue and net profit for 17 major liquor companies were 2368.3 billion and 944.6 billion respectively, with a year-on-year decline of 0.4% and 0.9% [15]. Performance Analysis - In Q2 2025, the revenue and net profit for the industry were 867.2 billion and 313.4 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.7% and 7.3%, marking the first negative growth in revenue during this cycle [15]. - High-end liquor maintained positive growth, while the mid-range and regional brands experienced declines [20][22]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the market is shifting focus from short-term recovery scenarios to verifying the bottom of demand trends through year-on-year comparisons [3]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the third quarter, driven by seasonal consumption events such as Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which may accelerate the bottoming process of the fundamentals [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on brands with strong market positions and growth potential, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and regional leaders like Guyi Gongjiu and Jinhui Jiu [5].