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国泰海通证券:白酒行业周期寻底 配置价值凸显
news flash· 2025-05-19 23:24
国泰海通证券研报表示,延续前期观点,白酒行业2025年第二季度产业景气度环比角度仍在寻底,价格 端压力大于量的压力,从库存周期视角看,白酒产业或完全进入到库存周期后半段,在此维度下,大部 分企业短期业绩表现愈发赖于核心市场的市占率提升,且愈发依赖于腰部及以下单品驱动,份额逻辑演 绎到最后阶段。白酒商品属性正在加速重塑,其快消品属性强化,能够提前适应快消品运作逻辑的企业 竞争优势会愈发凸显。股价层面,白酒板块配置价值凸显:1)分红层面有潜力:当下头部企业股息率接 近或大于3%;2)动态估值基本回落至历史区间低位;3)后续具备潜在催化因素,例如房价等资产价格边 际企稳,内需政策等;4)选股层面,首选具备份额逻辑的企业。 ...
国泰海通|金工:量化择时和拥挤度预警周报(20250516)
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the A-share market is likely to maintain a range-bound fluctuation in the upcoming week, influenced by historical trends and current market indicators [1][2]. - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was reported at 2.63, indicating that current market liquidity is 2.63 times higher than the average level over the past year [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF decreased to 1.03, reflecting a reduced level of caution among investors regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. Group 2 - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and the Wind All A Index were 0.89% and 1.45%, respectively, indicating increased trading activity compared to historical levels [2]. - The RMB exchange rate fluctuated last week, with onshore and offshore rates increasing by 0.59% and 0.42%, respectively [2]. - In April, new RMB loans amounted to 280 billion, significantly lower than the consensus expectation of 764.44 billion and the previous value of 3.64 trillion [2]. - The M2 money supply grew by 8% year-on-year, surpassing the consensus expectation of 7.54% and the previous value of 7% [2]. Group 3 - Historical data shows that the probability of major A-share indices rising in the latter half of May is relatively low, with the SSE Composite Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index having average increases of -0.1%, -0.02%, and 1.71%, respectively [2]. - The Wind All A Index recently broke through the SAR reversal indicator on April 21, indicating a potential upward trend [2]. - The current market score based on the moving average strength index is 209, placing it in the 82.9 percentile since 2021 [2]. Group 4 - The A-share market experienced a recovery last week, with the SSE 50 Index rising by 1.22%, the CSI 300 Index by 1.12%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.38% [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 19.0 times, which is at the 51.2 percentile since 2005 [3]. - The factor crowding metrics indicate a stable environment, with small-cap factor crowding at 0.91 and low valuation factor crowding at 0.53 [3].
国泰海通证券彭磊:航空航天产业崛起 为投资者带来多维度机遇
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-05-19 12:03
Core Viewpoint - The aerospace industry in China is experiencing unprecedented development opportunities driven by strong demand growth and accelerated innovation, with the market size expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2024 [1] Group 1: Industry Growth and Demand - The aerospace industry is positioned as a strategic foundation for national security amid global geopolitical tensions, with China's defense budget projected to reach 1.81 trillion yuan by 2025, maintaining a growth rate of 7.2% for three consecutive years [1] - Key growth engines in the aerospace sector include commercial aerospace, commercial aircraft, and low-altitude fields, reflecting a robust demand landscape [1] - The demand side is characterized by the upgrading of defense equipment, the rise of emerging fields, and the expansion of global markets, all contributing to strong demand [1] Group 2: Supply Side Transformation - The supply side is undergoing profound changes with accelerated breakthroughs in technological self-innovation, continuous policy benefits, and enhanced collaborative effects within the industry chain [1] - The interaction between supply and demand is fostering a new landscape for high-quality development in the industry, significantly improving efficiency and competitiveness [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The aerospace industry presents long-term value opportunities for the capital market, driven by technological breakthroughs and policy support, leading to significant characteristics such as industry chain collaboration, market demand expansion, and efficiency improvements [2] - Military state-owned enterprises are enhancing asset securitization rates through reforms, while private companies focus on flexible manufacturing and commercial aerospace, rapidly capturing market share in niche areas [2] - The dual-use technology transformation is creating new growth points, with military technologies extending into sectors like new energy vehicles and high-end equipment, broadening application spaces [2] - As the global aerospace industry enters a new expansion cycle, China's industry penetration and added value are expected to continue rising, with a focus on leading enterprises that have deep technological moats and clear capacity releases [2]
宣泰医药: 国泰海通证券股份有限公司关于上海宣泰医药科技股份有限公司2024年度持续督导工作现场检查报告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-05-19 10:34
国泰海通证券股份有限公司 关于上海宣泰医药科技股份有限公司 上海证券交易所: 国泰海通证券股份有限公司(以下简称"国泰海通"、"保荐人")作为上海 宣泰医药科技股份有限公司(以下简称"宣泰医药"或"公司")首次公开发行 股票并在科创板上市的保荐人,根据《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华人民共和 国证券法》 《证券发行上市保荐业务管理办法》 《上海证券交易所科创板股票上市 规则》 (以下简称"《上市规则》" )和《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 持续督导期间")的规范运作情况进行了现场检查,现就现场检查的有关情况报 告如下: 一、本次现场检查的基本情况 (一)保荐人 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 沈玉峰、程万里、程恺 (五)现场检查内容 现场检查人员对本持续督导期内发行人公司治理及内部控制、信息披露、独 立性、与关联方的资金往来、募集资金使用情况、关联交易、对外担保、重大对 外投资、公司经营状况以及承诺履行情况等方面进行了现场检查。 (六)现场检查手段 查看上市公司主要生产经营场所并与上市公司董事、监事、高级管理人员及 有关人员访谈;查阅公司本持续督导期间召开的历次三会会议资料;查阅公司建 立或更新的有关内控制度 ...
之江生物: 国泰海通证券股份有限公司关于上海之江生物科技股份有限公司2024年度持续督导年度跟踪报告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-05-19 09:38
Core Viewpoint - The report outlines the financial performance and operational status of Shanghai Zhijiang Biotechnology Co., Ltd. for the year 2024, highlighting a net profit loss and ongoing strategic adjustments in response to market changes [2][8]. Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, was -128.27 million yuan, indicating a reduction in losses by 26.96 million yuan compared to the previous year [2][15]. - Revenue for 2024 was 178.65 million yuan, a decrease of 34.88% from 274.33 million yuan in 2023 [15]. - The company reported a basic earnings per share of -0.67 yuan, consistent with the diluted earnings per share [15]. Operational Adjustments - The company has accelerated its operational strategy adjustments due to a decline in revenue and market demand, while production and operations remain normal without significant risks [2][8]. - The company has established internal systems and decision-making processes to comply with legal regulations and ensure proper information disclosure [3][8]. Risk Management - The report identifies several risks, including significant financial losses, core technology leakage, and intensified market competition, which could adversely affect the company's operations and financial status [9][10][11]. - The company has not encountered any major violations or undisclosed risks during the reporting period [4][5]. Research and Development - R&D expenditure for 2024 was 58.78 million yuan, accounting for 32.90% of total revenue, reflecting a focus on innovation despite a slight decrease in R&D spending compared to the previous year [16][19]. - The company has developed over 500 products and holds numerous patents, indicating a strong commitment to maintaining a competitive edge in the molecular diagnostics industry [19][20]. Market Position - The company has established a solid reputation in the molecular diagnostics field, with products widely used in major hospitals and medical institutions across China and internationally [20][21]. - The company has received recognition for its rapid response to public health emergencies, enhancing its brand image and market presence [21][22].
普利退跌8.89% 2017上市国泰海通保荐3募资共17.5亿
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-05-19 08:42
普利制药于2017年3月28在深圳证券交易所创业板上市。公开发行股票3,052.9405万股,发行价格11.49 元/股。上市保荐机构为海通证券股份有限公司(现更名为"国泰海通"),保荐代表人及联系人为赵鑫、汪 晓东。 中国经济网北京5月19日讯普利制药(股票简称"普利退(300630)",300630.SZ)今日收报0.82元,跌幅 8.89%。 普利制药本次发行新股募集资金总额为35,078.29万元,扣除发行费用3,643.00万元后,募集资金净额为 31,435.29万元。发行费用共计3,643万元,承销和保荐费用为2,500万元。 根据中国证券监督管理委员会《关于同意海南普利制药股份有限公司向不特定对象发行可转换公司债券 注册的批复》(证监许可〔2021〕106号),本公司由主承销商海通证券股份有限公司向不特定对象发行 可转换公司债券850万张,每张面值为人民币100元。本次发行的募集资金总额为85,000.00万元,扣除承 销及保荐费1,000.00万元(不含税)后实际收到的金额为84,000.00万元,已由主承销商海通证券股份有限 公司于2021年2月22日汇入公司募集资金监管账户。另减除律师费 ...
十大券商看后市|A股指数有望进一步缓步推高,淡化短期波动
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-19 01:00
A股快速轮动、冲高回落后,进入5月下旬,市场将作何表现呢? 智通财经搜集了10家券商的观点,大部分券商认为,随着资本市场基础制度改革提速和资金情绪略有回 升,叠加经济基本面有望脉冲式改善,接下来A股指数有望进一步缓步推高,并向上挑战震荡区间上 限。 国泰海通证券表示,展望后市仍然保持乐观,随着资本市场基础制度改革提速,继续看好中国股市。同 时贴现率下降是如今中国股市上升的重要动力,A股指数有望进一步缓步推高。 中信证券:回归基准是通过基准的行业配比向基金持仓配比演化而不是相反 当前,市场对于公募考核新规以及回归基准行业配置的讨论存在一些误区。从海外经验来看,回归基准 是通过基准的行业配比向基金持仓配比演化而不是相反;产品投资策略向客户盈利导向回归,在长期视 野下,这与追求排名和绝对收益并不矛盾,反而是统一的;跑输基准的惩罚机制最终导致的是基金减少 博弈性持仓,长期来看最大的影响是活跃头寸的占比下降。 "二季度经济基本面有望脉冲式改善。二季度从'抢转口'到'抢出口',外需从初步显现下行压力,到可能 脉冲式上行。尽管基本面改善尚无法外推,但短期数据验证有望保持强势,至少排除了下行风险。5月 政策兑现成为主要矛盾阶 ...
国泰海通证券:继续看好中国股市
news flash· 2025-05-18 23:30
国泰海通证券研报表示,面向未来,仍然保持乐观,中国A/H指数有望进一步缓步推高:1)遍历冲击 后,投资人对经济形势的认识已然充分。2)中国股市的无风险利率下降,海外预期降低、固收预期降 低,股市是解决社会资本开支下降与资产管理需求上升的关键破局点。3)围绕投资者为本、投融资相协 调的资本市场改革拉开序幕并提速,中国市场的底色向"可投资、重回报"转变,股市风险溢价降低。因 此,贴现率下降是如今中国股市上升的重要动力。 ...
国泰海通|固收:过去三年公募基金业绩基准是怎么调的?
Group 1 - The article analyzes the performance benchmark adjustments of public funds from 2022 to May 7, 2025, highlighting that the new benchmark in 2024 yielded lower returns compared to the old benchmark [1] - A total of 208 funds were sampled, with 21 in 2022, 47 in 2023, 82 in 2024, and 58 in 2025, categorized into three main types: equity indices, pure bond indices, and cash [1] - The positioning of pure products has become clearer, with short-term bond funds shifting their benchmarks significantly towards cash, while long-term bond funds remained unchanged [1] Group 2 - Mixed product adjustments vary, with funds having less than 20% equity significantly lowering their cash and equity weight, aiming to outperform pure bonds [2] - Funds with 20%-80% equity reduced cash weight and shifted more towards equity, while those with over 80% equity decreased pure bond weight and increased equity, focusing more on style/sector within equity [2]
【十大券商一周策略】A股有望重回震荡上行,对主动投资的未来应当更有信心
券商中国· 2025-05-18 15:11
中信证券:关于回归基准配置的几个误区和几个事实 我们认为市场对于公募考核新规以及回归基准行业配置的讨论存在一些误区。从海外经验来看,回归基准是通 过基准的行业配比向基金持仓配比演化而不是相反;产品投资策略向客户盈利导向回归,在长期视野下,这与 追求排名和绝对收益并不矛盾,反而是统一的;跑输基准的惩罚机制最终导致的是基金减少博弈性持仓,长期 来看最大的影响是活跃头寸的占比下降。 此外,用前瞻眼光去看,未来如果外资逐步回流,市场生态也会相较过去3年发生重大转变,不能用后视镜视 角静态去看行业配比,好公司和差公司之间的差异会远远超过所谓的"好行业"和"差行业"。 申万宏源:公募持仓向业绩比较基准靠拢未必是普遍趋势 《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》是长期改革,而其短期映射,成为结构性行情的主要线索。在我们看 来,主动公募产品调整业绩比较基准,是集中梳理产品策略的一次机遇。而持仓向业绩比较基准靠拢却未必是 普遍趋势。 如何去有效地设定基准是长期而言实现客户利益、赢得竞争并避免被被动型产品替代的最关键问题。对于主动 权益型产品而言,沪深300、中证800以及A500作为全市场基金基准都有较大的局限性,能够反映新质生产力 ...