证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 05月 09日 伊利股份（600887.SH） 24Q1 营收短期承压，全年目标稳健，分红&回购提升股东回报 财务指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 买入（维持评级） 营业收入（百万元） 122,698 125,758 130,374 136,646 142,369 股票信息 增长率yoy（%） 11.4 2.5 3.7 4.8 4.2 归母净利润（百万元） 9,431 10,429 13,130 12,404 13,555 行业 食品饮料 增长率yoy（%） 8.3 10.6 25.9 -5.5 9.3 2024年5月8日收盘价（元） 28.23 ROE（%） 17.2 17.9 20.7 17.9 17.8 总市值（百万元） 179,714.97 EPS最新摊薄（元） 1.48 1.64 2.06 1.95 2.13 流通市值（百万元） 177,992.81 P/E（倍） 19.0 17.2 13.7 14.5 13.3 总股本（百万股） 6,366.10 P/B（倍） 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.8 2.5 流通股本（百万股） ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Views - The company reported stable annual performance with a revenue of 1257.58 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-over-year (YOY) growth of 2.49%, and a net profit of 104.29 billion yuan, which is a YOY increase of 10.58% [4]. - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 324.63 billion yuan, down 2.60% YOY, but net profit surged by 63.84% to 59.23 billion yuan [4]. - The company continues to enhance its profit margins, with a gross margin of 32.58% in 2023, up 0.32 percentage points from the previous year [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 1257.58 billion yuan (YOY +2.49%) and a net profit of 104.29 billion yuan (YOY +10.58%) [4]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 32.58%, with a gross profit of 409.70 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.51% increase YOY [4]. - The company’s total revenue for Q1 2024 was 324.63 billion yuan, with a net profit of 59.23 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 63.84% YOY [4]. Product Performance - Liquid milk revenue reached 855.40 billion yuan in 2023, with a market share maintaining the industry lead [5]. - The milk powder and dairy products segment generated 275.98 billion yuan, showing a YOY growth of 5.09% [5]. - The ice cream segment reported a revenue of 106.88 billion yuan, up 11.72% YOY, driven by new channel expansions [5]. Regional Performance - The East China market experienced a decline of 8.16% in 2023, while Central China showed a positive growth of 8.08% [5]. - The company’s revenue from the distribution model was 1207.47 billion yuan (YOY +2.77%), while direct sales generated 371.36 billion yuan (YOY +1.45%) [5]. Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1329.84 billion yuan in 2024, with net profits expected to reach 135.72 billion yuan [7]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 2.13 yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 16-20 times, indicating a fair value range of 34.08 to 42.60 yuan per share [7].

内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司 2023 年年度股东大会会议资料 二〇二四年五月 | 目 | | 录 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一、《公司 | 2023 | 年年度报告及摘要》 | 1 | | 二、《公司 | 2023 | 年度董事会工作报告》 | 2 | | 三、《公司 | 2023 | 年度监事会工作报告》 | 11 | | 四、《公司 | 2024 | 年度经营方针与投资计划》 | 15 | | 五、《公司 | 2023 | 年度财务决算与 2024 年度财务预算方案》 | 21 | | 六、《公司 | 2023 | 年度利润分配预案》 | 24 | | 七、《公司 | 2023 | 年度独立董事述职报告》 | 25 | | 年为 | | 八、《公司关于授权全资子公司内蒙古惠商融资担保有限公司 2024 | | | 产业链上下游合作伙伴提供担保的议案》 | | | 57 | | 九、《公司关于为全资子公司提供担保的议案》 | | | 60 | | 十、《公司关于为控股子公司提供担保的议案》 | | | 63 | | 十一、《公司关于为呼和浩特市伊兴奶业投资管理有限公 ...

证券代码：600887 证券简称：伊利股份 公告编号：临 2024-045 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司 关于回购股份事项前十名股东持股情况的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司（简称"公司"）于2024年4月 28日召开第十一届董事会临时会议，审议通过了《关于以集中竞价交 易方式回购公司股份方案的议案》，具体内容详见公司于2024年4月30 日刊登于上海证券交易所网站的相关公告。 一、公司前十名股东持股情况 1 特此公告 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司 董 事 会 二○二四年五月九日 2 序号 股东名称 持股数量 （股） 持股比例 （%） 1 香港中央结算有限公司 810,907,039 12.86 2 呼和浩特投资有限责任公司 538,535,826 8.54 3 潘刚 276,614,628 4.39 4 中国证券金融股份有限公司 182,421,475 2.89 5 中国人寿保险股份有限公司－传统－普通保险产品－005L－ CT001 沪 121,297,137 1.9 ...

上 市 公 司 食品饮料 2024 年04月 30 日 伊利股份 (600887) 公 司 研 究 ——消费疲软液奶承压 分红回购彰显价值 / 公 司 点 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 评 买入 投资要点： （维持）  事件：公司发布23年报及24年一季报。2023年实现总营收1261.79亿，同比增长2.44%；归母净利润 104.29亿，同比增长10.58%。23Q4公司实现总营收287.75亿，同比下降1.8%；归母净利润10.5亿， 证 市场数据： 2024年04月29日 同比下降23.5%。2024Q1公司实现总营收325.77亿，同比下降2.6%；归母净利润59.23亿，同比增长 券 收盘价（元） 28.29 研 一年内最高/最低（元） 31/25.2 63.84%，扣非归母净利润37.28亿，同比增长7.97%。公司2023、24Q1业绩符合预期。公司2023年利 究 市净率 3.1 润分配预案为每10股配派12元（含税），分红率为73%，同比提高3pct。公司公告回购方案，以自有资 报 息率（分红/股价） - 告 流通A股市值（百万元） 178371 金回购10~20亿用以减少注册资本，回购 ...

Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue growth of 11.1% in the infant formula segment, increasing its market share by 1.7 percentage points to 12.8% [9] - The overall revenue for liquid milk is expected to stabilize and increase in the second half of the year, despite a weak demand recovery in the first quarter [4][5] - The company anticipates a slight improvement in gross profit margin due to a decrease in raw milk prices and an improved product mix [10] Market Trends - The demand for dairy products is expected to return to normal growth trajectories as consumer purchasing power recovers [4] - The infant formula market is projected to see a decline in growth, but the decrease is expected to be less severe than in 2023 [8] - The adult nutrition segment is anticipated to maintain double-digit growth, driven by increasing health awareness among consumers [12] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to enhance its product innovation capabilities and expand into non-dairy sectors such as beverages and probiotics [13][14] - Marketing efforts will focus on leveraging events like the Paris Olympics to boost brand visibility and consumer engagement [10] - The company aims to maintain a stable dividend payout ratio of at least 70% to enhance shareholder returns [20] Challenges and Adjustments - The company is facing short-term challenges due to weak demand and excess raw milk supply, leading to adjustments in inventory management [4][7] - Promotional activities may increase in response to competitive pressures, but the company remains committed to maintaining stable pricing [7][10] - The low-temperature dairy segment is expected to recover gradually, with a focus on expanding distribution channels [18][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 126.2 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.43 billion yuan, up 10.6% year-on-year. In Q1 2024, the revenue was 32.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year, while the net profit reached 5.92 billion yuan, a significant increase of 63.8% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 12.00 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) to all shareholders [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and dairy products, and ice cream was 85.5 billion yuan (+0.7%), 27.6 billion yuan (+5.1%), and 10.7 billion yuan (+11.7%) respectively. In Q1 2024, the revenue from these segments was 20.3 billion yuan (-6.8%), 7.4 billion yuan (-0.2%), and 4.3 billion yuan (+14.2%) respectively [2] - The gross margin for 2023 and Q1 2024 was 32.6% (+0.3pp) and 35.8% (+2pp) respectively, mainly due to the decline in raw milk prices [2] - The net profit margin for 2023 and Q1 2024 was 8.2% (+0.6pp) and 18.3% (+7.5pp) respectively, significantly boosted by increased investment income from the transfer of subsidiary equity [2] Profitability Outlook - The company expects profitability to improve as cost stabilizes, product structure enhances, and efficiency in expense allocation increases. The company plans to repurchase 1 to 2 billion yuan worth of shares within 12 months to enhance investor returns, reflecting confidence in future development [2][3] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 13 billion yuan, 13.3 billion yuan, and 13.9 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.04 yuan, 2.07 yuan, and 2.18 yuan. The dynamic PE ratios are projected to be 14 times, 14 times, and 13 times respectively [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 126.2 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.43 billion yuan, up 10.6% year-on-year. For Q1 2024, the revenue was 32.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.6%, while the net profit was 5.92 billion yuan, a significant increase of 63.8% [2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 12.00 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) to all shareholders [2]. - The company is focusing on improving profitability through cost stabilization and product structure enhancement, alongside a share buyback plan of 1-2 billion yuan to boost investor returns [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the liquid milk, milk powder, and cold drink segments generated revenues of 85.5 billion yuan (+0.7%), 27.6 billion yuan (+5.1%), and 10.7 billion yuan (+11.7%), respectively. In Q1 2024, these segments reported revenues of 20.3 billion yuan (-6.8%), 7.4 billion yuan (-0.2%), and 4.3 billion yuan (+14.2%) [2]. - The gross margins for 2023 and Q1 2024 were 32.6% (+0.3pp) and 35.8% (+2pp), respectively, primarily due to declining raw milk prices [2]. - The net profit margins for 2023 and Q1 2024 were 8.2% (+0.6pp) and 18.3% (+7.5pp), respectively, with the latter benefiting from increased investment income from subsidiary equity transfers [2]. Profitability Forecast - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 13.0 billion yuan, 13.3 billion yuan, and 13.9 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 2.04 yuan, 2.07 yuan, and 2.18 yuan, leading to dynamic PE ratios of 14x, 14x, and 13x [3][4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company holds the leading market share in liquid milk, with a retail market share of 16.2% in infant formula, up 1.6 percentage points. It is also focusing on functional dairy products for the elderly [2]. - The cold drink segment continues to outperform the industry, maintaining its market leadership [2]. - The company is leveraging strategic partnerships and investments in upstream dairy resources to enhance its supply chain efficiency and product quality [2].

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of CNY 35 [2][4] Core Views - Revenue fluctuations primarily due to channel adjustments, with cost reductions and fee optimization driving profit growth [2] - Plans to distribute a dividend of CNY 1.2 per share (tax-inclusive), with a dividend payout ratio of approximately 73% [2] - Intends to repurchase CNY 1-2 billion worth of shares for cancellation, resulting in a post-repurchase dividend yield exceeding 4.6% [2] - 2023 revenue reached CNY 126.18 billion, up 2.44% YoY, with non-GAAP net profit of CNY 10.03 billion, up 16.78% YoY [2] - 2024 revenue target set at CNY 130 billion, with a profit target of CNY 14.7 billion [2] Financial Performance - 2023 liquid milk revenue grew 0.7%, milk powder and dairy products grew 5.1%, cold drinks grew 11.7%, and other products grew 60.7% [2] - Gross margin for 2023 was 32.80%, up 0.29 percentage points YoY, driven by lower milk prices [2] - 2024 Q1 revenue was CNY 32.58 billion, down 2.58% YoY, with non-GAAP net profit of CNY 3.73 billion, up 7.97% YoY [2] - 2024 Q1 liquid milk revenue declined 6.8% due to channel adjustments and inventory management [2] Future Outlook - Liquid milk channel adjustments are showing initial results, with expected gradual recovery in growth [2] - Infant formula industry pressures are easing, while adult formula business continues to grow [2] - Cold drinks benefit from market concentration, and cheese products are driving growth through B2B channels [2] - Product structure optimization and efficiency improvements are expected to further enhance profitability [2] Financial Projections - 2024E revenue projected at CNY 130.61 billion, with net profit of CNY 12.99 billion [3] - 2025E revenue projected at CNY 136.90 billion, with net profit of CNY 12.36 billion [3] - 2026E revenue projected at CNY 143.50 billion, with net profit of CNY 13.74 billion [3] - 2024E EPS projected at CNY 2.04, 2025E at CNY 1.94, and 2026E at CNY 2.16 [3] Valuation Metrics - 2024E PE ratio of 14.02, PB ratio of 3.34, and EV/EBITDA of 10.61 [3] - 2024E dividend yield projected at 5.2% [3] Industry Comparison - Compared to peers, the company has a higher EPS growth rate and lower PE ratio [9] - Sector average PE for 2024E is 16, while the company's PE is 14 [9]

乳制品 伊利股份（600887.SH） 买入-A(维持) 23年主业平稳增长，24Q1液态奶短期承压 2024年5月6日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 事件描述 伊利股份发布 2023年年报，23年公司实现营业总收入1261.79亿元， 同比增长2.44%；归母净利润104.29亿元，同比增长10.58%。其中23Q4实 现营业总收入287.75亿元，同比减少1.82%；归母净利润10.48亿元，同比 减少23.47%。 同时公司发布24年一季报，24Q1公司实现营业总收入325.77亿元，同 比减少2.58%；归母净利润59.23亿元，同比增长63.84%。 市场数据：2024年4月30日 事件点评 收盘价（元）： 28.61  23年主业平稳增长，24Q1液态奶承压。具体收入端来看，23年/23Q4 年内最高/最低（元）： 31.00/25.20 公司液体乳分别实现营收855.40/201.09亿元，同比+0.7/-3.4%，奶粉及奶制 流通A股/总股本（亿 63.05/63.66 品营收275.98/76.76亿元，同比+5.1/+1.9%，冷饮产品营收106.88/3.05亿元， 股）： ...