2024 年 05 月 04 日 公司研究 评级：买入 (维持 ) 研究所： [Table_Title] 高质量发展，进一步提升股东回报 证券分析师： 刘洁铭 S0350521110006 liujm@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 秦一方 S0350523120001 ——伊利股份（ ） 年年报及 年 600887 2023 2024 qinyf@ghzq.com.cn 一季报点评 最近一年走势 事件 : 2024年4月29日，伊利股份发布2023年年报和2024年一季报。2023 年公司实现营收1261.79亿元，同比+2.44%；归母净利润104.29亿元， 同比+10.58%；扣非归母净利润100.26亿元，同比+16.78%。2023Q4 公司实现营收287.75亿元，同比-1.82%，归母净利润10.48亿元，同比 -23.47%；扣非归母净利润15.73亿元，同比+56.49%。2024Q1公司实 现营收325.77亿元，同比-2.58%；归母净利润59.23亿元，同比+63.84%； 扣非归母净利润37.28亿元，同比+7.97%。 相对沪深300表现 2024/04/30 投资要点 : ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887 CH) with a target price raised to RMB 33.50, indicating a potential upside of 17.1% from the current price of RMB 28.61 [1][4]. Core Insights - Yili continues to expand its market share and profit margins despite a sluggish market, with a notable performance in fresh milk and ice cream segments [1]. - The company reported a decline in revenue for Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, with year-on-year decreases of 1.8% and 2.6%, respectively, primarily due to challenges in the liquid milk business [1]. - The management has guided for a revenue growth of 3% in 2024, targeting RMB 130 billion, with a pre-tax profit increase of 25% to RMB 14.7 billion [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 126.18 billion, with a modest growth of 2.4% compared to 2022. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach RMB 130.24 billion, reflecting a growth of 3.2% [2]. - Net profit for 2023 is estimated at RMB 10.43 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 10.6%. The forecast for 2024 anticipates a net profit of RMB 13.27 billion, representing a significant increase of 27.3% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is projected at RMB 1.63, with an expected rise to RMB 2.07 in 2024 [2]. Market Performance - Yili's stock has shown resilience with a year-to-date increase of 6.95%, and its market capitalization stands at approximately RMB 180.39 billion [3]. - The stock has a 52-week high of RMB 30.67 and a low of RMB 25.33, indicating a stable trading range [3]. Product Performance - The liquid milk segment faced pressure, but fresh milk sales doubled year-on-year, while ice cream sales grew robustly by 11.7% in 2023, driven by expansion in lower-tier markets and Southeast Asia [1]. - For Q1 2024, sales in liquid milk, milk powder, ice cream, and other products showed varied performance, with liquid milk sales declining by 6.8% [1]. Strategic Outlook - The management aims to achieve a pre-tax net profit margin of no less than 9% by 2025, up from 8.3% in 2023, despite anticipated increases in operating expenses due to enhanced channel investments [1]. - The report emphasizes that Yili's ability to maintain and grow its market share in a challenging environment positions it favorably for future growth [1].

[Table_Main] 公司研究|日常消费|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 伊利股份(600887)公司点评报告 2024年04月30日 [Table回_Tit购le] 计划提振信心，毛利率持续提升 [Table_Inves 买t] 入|维持 ——伊利股份 2023 年报及 2024 年一季报点评 [报 Ta告 ble要 _S点 um： m ary] [ Table_TargetPr ice]  事件 公司公告2023年报及2024年一季报。2023年，公司实现总收入1261.79亿 元（+2.44%），归母净利104.29亿元（+10.58%），扣非归母净利100.26亿元 （+16.78%）。2023Q4，公司实现总收入287.75亿元（-1.82%），归母净利10.48 [基Ta本bl数e_据Ba se] 亿元（-23.47%），扣非归母净利15.73亿元（+56.49%）。2024Q1，公司实现 52周最高/最低价（元）： 30.67 / 25.33 总收入325.77亿元（-2.58%），归母净利59.23亿元（+63.84%），扣非归母净 利37.28亿元（+12.39%）。公司拟每股派发现金 ...

食品饮料/饮料乳品 公 司 研 伊利股份（600887.SH） 营收承压，净利率提升 究 2024年05月03日 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 张宇光（分析师） 叶松霖（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn yesonglin@kysec.cn 日期 2024/4/30 证 书编号：S0790520030003 证书编号：S0790521060001 当前股价(元) 28.61  成本下行毛利率改善，盈利能力可提升，维持“买入”评级 公 一年最高最低(元) 31.00/25.20 伊利股份2023年实现营收1257.6亿元，同比增2.5%；归母净利104.3亿元，同 司 信 总市值(亿元) 1,821.34 比增10.6%。2023Q4营收287.7亿元，同比降1.8%；归母净利10.5亿元，同比 息 流通市值(亿元) 1,803.89 降 23.5%。2024Q1 营收 325.8 亿元，同比降 2.6%；归母净利 59 亿元，同比增 更 总股本(亿股) 63.66 63.8%。由于处置资产有投资收益，我们上调 2024-2025 年盈利预测，预计 新 报 流通股本(亿股) ...

证券研究报告 [收Tab入le_短Titl期e] 承压，红利坚定信心 公司研究 [Table_ReportDate] 2024年5月3日 [公Ta司ble点_Re评po报rtT告ype] [Table_Summary] 事件： 伊利发布 2023 年报及 2024 年一季报。2023 年，公司实现营收 [伊Ta利bl股e_份Sto(c6k0A0n8dR8a7n)k ] 1262 亿元，同比+2.44%；归母净利润 104.29 亿元，同比+10.58%；扣非 归母净利润 100.26 亿元，同比+16.78%。其中，23Q4 实现营收 288 亿 投资评级 买入 元，同比-1.82%；归母净利润10.48亿元，同比-23.47%；扣非归母净利润 上次评级 买入 15.73 亿元，同比+56.49%。24Q1，公司实现营收 326 亿元，同比- 2.58%；归母净利润59.23亿元，同比+63.84%；扣非归母净利润37.28亿 [马Ta铮b le _ A u t食ho品r]饮 料行业首席分析师 元，同比+12.39%。 执业编号：S1500520110001 联系电话：13392190215 邮 箱：mazh ...

证 券 2024 年 05 月 03 日 研 究 液体乳板块静待修复，多板块发力增长 报 告 —伊利股份（600887.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 2024 年 04 月 29 日，伊利股份发布 2023 年年报、2024 年一 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 季度报、关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份方案的公 告。 投资要点 基本数据 2024-04-30 当前股价（元） 28.61 ▌盈利端改善可期，回购方案彰显发展信心 总市值（亿元） 1821 总股本（百万股） 6366 公 司 2023/2023Q4/2024Q1 总 营 收 分 别 为 1261.79/287.75/325.77 亿元，分别同 比+2%/-2%/-3%， 流通股本（百万股） 6305 2024Q1 营收端承压，主要系基数高/春节后消费需求偏弱， 52周价格范围（元） 25.33-30.67 导致上游供给过剩与需求恢复不足的供需矛盾所致，当前公 日均成交额（百万元） 983.39 司主动调整出货节奏及上游奶源采购和消化，随着渠道逐步 市场表现 恢复，有望带动 2024 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 30.82 CNY [2] Core Views - The company achieved a 2023 revenue of 126.179 billion CNY, up 2.44% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 10.58% YoY to 10.429 billion CNY [1] - In 2023, the company's liquid milk, milk powder, and dairy products, and cold beverage segments generated revenues of 85.54 billion CNY, 27.598 billion CNY, and 10.688 billion CNY, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 0.72%, 5.09%, and 11.72% [1] - The company's net profit margin increased by 0.61 pct to 8.26% in 2023, driven by rational marketing expenses and lower milk prices [1] - In Q1 2024, the company's revenue declined by 2.58% YoY, mainly due to inventory reduction efforts, but net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 63.84% YoY [1] - The company aims for a 2024 revenue target of 130 billion CNY, representing a 3.03% YoY growth, with a dividend payout ratio of 73.25% in 2023, increasing to 79.94% after accounting for share repurchases [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to 130.153 billion CNY, 136.876 billion CNY, and 143.54 billion CNY in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 3.15%, 5.17%, and 4.87% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 13.079 billion CNY, 12.387 billion CNY, and 13.178 billion CNY in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 25.42%, -5.29%, and 6.38% [1] Financial Ratios - The company's ROE is projected to be 19.8%, 16.2%, and 15.2% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - The net profit margin is expected to improve to 10.0%, 9.0%, and 9.1% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - The P/E ratio is forecasted to be 13.77, 14.54, and 13.67 in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4]

华福证券 乳品 2024年04月30日 公 司 伊利股份（ ） 600887.SH 买入（维持评级） 研 究 全年经营仍稳健，回购彰显公司发展信心 当前价格： 28.61元 基本数据 投资要点： 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 6,366.10/6,305.09 流通A股市值(百万元) 180,388.74  公司发布2023年年报及2024年一季报 每股净资产(元) 9.28 资产负债率(%) 60.95 2023年公司营业总收入1261.79亿元，同比增长2.4%；归母净利润 一年内最高/最低价(元) 31.00/25.20 104.29亿元，同比增长10.6%。单四季度来看，2023Q4营业收入287.75 一年内股价相对走势 亿元，同比变动-1.8%；归母净利润10.48亿元，同比变动-23.5%。23年 收入端增长不及预期。2024年一季报显示，24Q1公司营业总收入325.77 公 亿元，同比变动-2.6%；归母净利润59.23亿元，同比增长63.8%。考虑到 司 春节错配影响，我们测算 23Q4+24Q1 营收/归母净利/扣非净利分别为 财 613.52/69.71/53.00亿元，同比变动-2. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported total revenue of 126.18 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.43 billion yuan, up 10.6% year-on-year. For Q1 2024, total revenue was 32.58 billion yuan, down 2.6% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.923 billion yuan, up 63.8% year-on-year [3] - The company is experiencing a soft performance in liquid milk due to inventory reduction in the off-season, with liquid milk revenue growth of 0.7% in 2023 and a decline of 6.8% in Q1 2024. The product mix continues to upgrade, with expectations for better performance in premium products [3] - The company’s adult milk powder segment showed steady growth, while the infant formula segment faced pressure due to declining birth rates and channel adjustments. Future growth is anticipated as birth rates recover [3] - Cost advantages are improving gross margins, with gross margins increasing by 0.3% in 2023 and 2 percentage points in Q1 2024. The company is actively controlling costs, leading to significant improvements in gross sales margins [3] - The net profit margin exceeded expectations in 2023, with a notable increase in investment income in Q1 2024 due to the sale of coal assets. The company’s net profit margin and net profit margin excluding non-recurring items both improved year-on-year [3] - The company plans to increase shareholder returns through a higher dividend payout ratio and share buybacks, with a target revenue of 130 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 3% year-on-year increase [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 130.3 billion yuan, 136.6 billion yuan, and 143.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.23%, 4.9%, and 4.75% respectively. The net profit forecasts for the same period are 13.1 billion yuan, 12.2 billion yuan, and 13.5 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14x, 15x, and 13x [3]

[Table_Header] 公司点评●饮料乳品 2024年 04 月30 日 [Table_Title] [Table_StockCode] 伊利股份(600887) 主业盈利改善，红利价值凸显 [Table_InvestRank] 推荐 (维持) --2023 年报与 2024 年一季报点评 核心观点： 分析师 [⚫T able事_S件um：m4a月ry]2 9日，公司发布公告，23年营收 1261.8亿元（同比+2.4%，下同）， [刘Ta光b意le_ Authors] 归母净利润 104.3 亿元（+10.6%），扣非归母净利润 100.3 亿元（+16.8%）； ：021-20252650 24Q1，营收 325.8亿元（-2.6%），归母净利润 59.2亿元（+63.8%），扣非归母 ：liuguangyi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 净利润 37.3亿元（+8.0%）。2023年合计分红占归母净利润约 80%，股息率约 分析师登记编码：S0130522070002 4.2%。公司拟回购 10 亿元~20 亿元公司股票，回购价格上限 41.88 元/股，预 计回购股份占总股本 0 ...