Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotou Securities indicates that Yili Co., Ltd. experienced a decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, while showing significant growth in the second quarter, driven by strong performance in new product launches, particularly in milk powder and cold drinks [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Yili achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.39% [1] - In Q2 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.326 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44.65% [1] - Revenue breakdown for H1 2025 includes liquid milk at 36.13 billion yuan, milk powder and dairy products at 16.58 billion yuan, cold drinks at 8.23 billion yuan, and other products at 390 million yuan, with respective year-on-year changes of -2.1%, +14.3%, +12.4%, and -5.1% [1] Product Strategy - The company plans to focus on expanding high-margin businesses such as milk powder and cold drinks [1] - Yili is innovating its product matrix by launching high-end organic infant formula, special medical purpose formula milk, functional nutrition products, and new cold drink products targeting younger consumers [1] Marketing and Distribution - Yili is enhancing its digital ecosystem marketing and multi-channel layout, aiming to improve penetration rates in e-commerce and new retail channels [1] - The company is focused on increasing channel efficiency through these initiatives [1] Investment Rating - Based on the average valuation of comparable companies for 2025, Yili is given a "Buy-A" investment rating with a 6-month target price of 34.71 yuan, corresponding to a 2025 PE ratio of 19.56x [1]

海通国际研报指出，伊利股份25H1实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润72.00亿元，25Q2实现归属于上市 公司股东的净利润23.26亿元，同比增长44.65%。分业务看：液态乳收入361.26亿元，同比下滑2.1%， 常温酸奶、常温乳饮料及高端白奶市占率提升，低温白奶收入增速超过20%，产品创新与渠道下沉成效 显著；奶粉及奶制品收入165.78亿元，同比增长14.3%，其中婴幼儿配方奶粉市场份额达18.1%，位列全 国第一；成人粉市占率26.1%，稳居行业首位；冷饮收入82.29亿元，同比增长12.4%，线上线下零售份 额继续保持行业第一。海外业务亦快速扩张：海外冷饮和羊奶粉收入分别增长14.4%和65.7%。总体 看，公司在各主要品类均形成稳固优势，多元化结构保证了业绩的韧性。随着原奶供需逐步平衡、奶价 企稳回升，以及消费结构升级与健康需求提升，公司有望继续发挥龙头优势。参考可比公司估值，给予 公司2025年21xPE，目标价为36.6元，维持"优于大市"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 34.71 CNY over the next six months [5][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 61.777 billion CNY for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.49%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.200 billion CNY, a decrease of 4.39%. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 31.78% to 7.016 billion CNY [1]. - The growth in the milk powder and cold drink segments has led to improved profit margins, with a gross margin of 34.19% in Q2 2025, an increase of 0.61 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Revenue Breakdown - For H1 2025, revenue from liquid milk, milk powder and dairy products, cold drinks, and other products was 36.13 billion CNY, 16.58 billion CNY, 8.23 billion CNY, and 390 million CNY, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -2.1%, +14.3%, +12.4%, and -5.1% [2]. - The company launched high-end organic products such as "Golden Crown" and "Toffee" which contributed to double-digit growth in the milk powder segment. The cold drink segment benefited from new products and collaborations with membership and snack stores [2]. Channel and Regional Performance - Revenue from distribution and direct sales channels for H1 2025 was 59.35 billion CNY and 1.96 billion CNY, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 3.3% and 17.3% [2]. - Revenue by region for H1 2025 was 17.14 billion CNY in North China, 15.08 billion CNY in South China, 11.36 billion CNY in Central China, 9.06 billion CNY in East China, and 8.68 billion CNY in other regions, with year-on-year changes of +2.0%, +2.5%, +3.3%, -0.2%, and +15.1% [2]. Profitability Metrics - The company's net profit margin for H1 2025 was 11.63%, a decrease of 0.94 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 8.05%, an increase of 2.16 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company aims to expand high-margin businesses such as milk powder and cold drinks, focusing on product innovation and digital marketing strategies [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 3.4%, 3.9%, and 3.9% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, while net profit growth is expected to be 32.8%, 10.2%, and 5.6% for the same years [4].

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on September 19, with the food and beverage sector experiencing a low opening and fluctuations [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) saw a decline of 0.41%, while stocks like Xinnuo Wei and Xianle Health gained over 3% [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF has recorded a net inflow of over 71 million yuan over the past three trading days [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, issued a plan to boost the light industry sector, focusing on expanding consumption and promoting traditional consumer goods [2] - The cultural and tourism sector is set to launch a three-year action plan to stimulate consumption, with over 330 million yuan in subsidies planned for distribution during the consumption month [2] - Pacific Securities noted that the liquor sector is currently in a dual bottom phase, with a potential weak recovery in demand due to consumption expansion policies [2] Group 3 - Hengtai Securities indicated that the liquor sector is entering a peak season, with noticeable improvements in sales performance reported by Moutai [3] - Companies in the liquor industry are actively innovating products and seeking channel reforms to maintain market share [3] - There is an emphasis on monitoring inventory and sales performance during the upcoming holiday season [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Haitong International has given Yili Co., Ltd. (600887.SH) an "outperform" rating due to its resilient performance and strong brand position [1] - The company's performance demonstrates significant resilience, indicating its ability to withstand market fluctuations [1] - Yili's brand advantage remains solid, supported by steady growth in its diversified business operations [1] - The company has optimized cost control and improved channel efficiency, contributing to its overall performance [1] - Strategic focus on innovation is driving long-term growth for the company [1]

Group 1: Market Performance - The food and beverage sector experienced a significant pullback on September 18, with the Food ETF (515710) dropping over 2% during intraday trading before closing down 1.41% [1] - Major liquor stocks, including Shede Liquor, Yanghe Brewery, and Luzhou Laojiao, saw declines exceeding 2%, while leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye fell over 1% [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Despite the recent pullback, there has been a notable influx of capital into the food and beverage sector, with the Food ETF (515710) recording a net subscription of 24.1 million CNY over the past five trading days [1] - The food and beverage sector is currently viewed as having a favorable valuation, with the Food ETF's underlying index PE ratio at 21.12, placing it at a low point historically [4] Group 3: Industry Outlook - Kweichow Moutai ranked third in the Kantar BrandZ Most Valuable Chinese Brands 2025 list, with a brand value of 80.023 billion USD, marking its sixth consecutive year in the top three [3] - Analysts suggest that as policy pressures ease, there is potential for a weak recovery in demand for liquor, particularly with the upcoming holiday season expected to improve sales [3][6] - The liquor industry is seen as being at a low valuation point, with expectations for gradual improvement in fundamentals as the market stabilizes [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company demonstrates prominent operational resilience and is waiting for a cyclical upturn [1][3]. - The company has a solid brand advantage and steady momentum from diversified businesses, with significant growth in milk powder and dairy products [3][12]. - The company is focused on innovation and long-term growth, with plans to expand high-end product offerings and international markets [5][16]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 61.933 billion, a year-on-year growth of 3.37%, with a net profit of RMB 7.2 billion [3][11]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 118.61 billion, RMB 121.62 billion, and RMB 128.55 billion, with respective growth rates of 2.4%, 2.5%, and 5.7% [5][17]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 11.02 billion, RMB 12.33 billion, and RMB 13.06 billion for the same period, with growth rates of 29.1%, 12.0%, and 6.0% [5][17]. Business Segments - Liquid milk revenue was RMB 36.126 billion, a decrease of 2.1%, while low-temperature plain milk revenue grew over 20% [3][12]. - The milk powder and dairy products segment saw a revenue increase of 14.3%, with infant formula market share at 18.1% [3][12]. - Frozen drinks revenue increased by 12.4%, maintaining industry-leading retail shares [3][12]. Cost Control and Efficiency - The company's gross profit margin improved from 34.91% to 36.05%, reflecting effective cost control [4][13]. - Sales and management expense ratios decreased by 1.11 percentage points and 0.15 percentage points, respectively [4][13]. - The company has strengthened cooperation with upstream and downstream partners to enhance channel efficiency [4][14]. Strategic Focus - The company aims to drive liquid milk business recovery and maintain growth in other segments while focusing on high-end product development [5][15]. - Plans include expanding into Southeast Asia and enhancing product offerings in international markets [5][16]. - The company is leveraging digital tools for refined management and operational efficiency [4][14].

Market Overview - On September 18, the beverage and dairy sector declined by 0.98%, with Jiahua Food leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3831.66, down 1.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13075.66, down 1.06% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the beverage and dairy sector showed the following closing prices and percentage changes: - Jiahua Food: 13.02, -5.58% - New Dairy: 17.21, -3.10% - Meibu Technology: 25.97, -3.06% - Huangshi Group: 3.82, -2.80% - Junyao Health: 7.98, -2.56% - Western Pastoral: 11.41, -2.48% - Zhuangyuan Pasture: 9.69, -2.42% - Tianrun Dairy: 10.10, -2.32% - Pinwu Food: 36.86, -2.12% - Sanyuan Co.: 4.76, -2.06% [1] Capital Flow - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a net outflow of 1.57 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 2.35 billion yuan [1] - Detailed capital flow for selected stocks includes: - Yili Co.: 36.15 million net inflow from institutions, -51.29 million from retail - Huanlejia: 16.11 million net inflow from institutions, -8.34 million from retail - Yangyuan Beverage: 6.44 million net inflow from institutions, -7.84 million from retail - Tianrun Dairy: 5.37 million net inflow from institutions, -0.28 million from retail - Bright Dairy: 3.31 million net inflow from institutions, 2.98 million from retail [2]

Group 1 - The stock indices weakened on September 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 1.00%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.78%, and the ChiNext Index falling 1.13% [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) saw a decline of 1.08% with a trading volume exceeding 24 million yuan, while it recorded a net subscription of 10 million units during the session [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF has attracted a net inflow of over 25.28 million yuan yesterday and a cumulative inflow of 37.23 million yuan over the past five trading days [1] Group 2 - The State Council introduced a set of policies aimed at expanding service consumption, focusing on five areas with 19 specific measures to enhance quality and efficiency in service supply [2] - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism announced the launch of a three-year action plan for cultural and tourism consumption, which includes issuing over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies during the consumption month [2] Group 3 - The white liquor industry is transitioning from "passive clearing" to "active adjustment," indicating an accelerated bottoming phase due to macroeconomic recovery and inventory cycle adjustments [3] - The industry is currently experiencing multiple bottoms in valuation, institutional positions, and fundamentals, with positive signals emerging from the release of consumption scenarios and demand for banquets [3] - The peak consumption seasons of Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are expected to accelerate the bottoming process, with a forecast for recovery in financial reports by 2026 [3]

消息面上，国务院新闻办9月17日举行新闻发布会，介绍《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》的主要 内容及亮点。商务部有关负责人表示，《政策措施》提出5方面19条具体任务措施，坚持惠民生和促消 费相结合，坚持优化供给和激发需求相结合，坚持对外开放和对内放开相结合，吸引更多优质服务消费 资源进入，解决供给侧优质服务短缺问题，激发经营主体活力，提高服务供给的质量和效率。 此外，文化和旅游部产业发展司司长缪沐阳9月17日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，将正式启动"百城百 区"文化和旅游消费三年行动计划，协调中国银联、金融机构、平台企业推出消费券、支付满减等优惠 以及入境旅游消费便利措施；各地也陆续出台扩大文旅消费的专项政策，将在消费月期间发放超过3.3 亿元的消费补贴。 民生证券指出，从"被动出清"到"主动调整"，白酒行业处于加速筑底阶段。2025年上半年白酒行业经历 了宏观经济缓慢修复、行业库存周期高位去化以及518史上最严禁酒令的政策面压制等，消费场景受 损，行业需求延续承压，酒企放缓回款节奏纾压渠道，加速库存去化，二季度报表同比转负，行业加速 出清筑底。当前行业处于估值、机构仓位、基本面的多重底部，进入8月以来，场景释放 ...