Group 1 - The stock indices weakened on September 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 1.00%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.78%, and the ChiNext Index falling 1.13% [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) saw a decline of 1.08% with a trading volume exceeding 24 million yuan, while it recorded a net subscription of 10 million units during the session [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF has attracted a net inflow of over 25.28 million yuan yesterday and a cumulative inflow of 37.23 million yuan over the past five trading days [1] Group 2 - The State Council introduced a set of policies aimed at expanding service consumption, focusing on five areas with 19 specific measures to enhance quality and efficiency in service supply [2] - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism announced the launch of a three-year action plan for cultural and tourism consumption, which includes issuing over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies during the consumption month [2] Group 3 - The white liquor industry is transitioning from "passive clearing" to "active adjustment," indicating an accelerated bottoming phase due to macroeconomic recovery and inventory cycle adjustments [3] - The industry is currently experiencing multiple bottoms in valuation, institutional positions, and fundamentals, with positive signals emerging from the release of consumption scenarios and demand for banquets [3] - The peak consumption seasons of Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are expected to accelerate the bottoming process, with a forecast for recovery in financial reports by 2026 [3]

消息面上，国务院新闻办9月17日举行新闻发布会，介绍《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》的主要 内容及亮点。商务部有关负责人表示，《政策措施》提出5方面19条具体任务措施，坚持惠民生和促消 费相结合，坚持优化供给和激发需求相结合，坚持对外开放和对内放开相结合，吸引更多优质服务消费 资源进入，解决供给侧优质服务短缺问题，激发经营主体活力，提高服务供给的质量和效率。 此外，文化和旅游部产业发展司司长缪沐阳9月17日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，将正式启动"百城百 区"文化和旅游消费三年行动计划，协调中国银联、金融机构、平台企业推出消费券、支付满减等优惠 以及入境旅游消费便利措施；各地也陆续出台扩大文旅消费的专项政策，将在消费月期间发放超过3.3 亿元的消费补贴。 民生证券指出，从"被动出清"到"主动调整"，白酒行业处于加速筑底阶段。2025年上半年白酒行业经历 了宏观经济缓慢修复、行业库存周期高位去化以及518史上最严禁酒令的政策面压制等，消费场景受 损，行业需求延续承压，酒企放缓回款节奏纾压渠道，加速库存去化，二季度报表同比转负，行业加速 出清筑底。当前行业处于估值、机构仓位、基本面的多重底部，进入8月以来，场景释放 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent regulation banning the use of reconstituted milk in pure milk production aims to enhance the quality of liquid dairy products in China and promote the consumption of fresh milk [4][6][7]. Group 1: Regulation Details - The new food safety standard, effective from September 16, prohibits the use of reconstituted milk in the production of sterilized milk, which includes pure cow and goat milk [4][6]. - Reconstituted milk, made by mixing dried dairy products with water, can no longer be labeled as "pure milk" and will be classified as blended milk [4][6]. - The regulation aligns with the 2024 Central Document No. 1, which emphasizes improving liquid milk standards and promoting fresh milk consumption [6][7]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The ban is expected to enhance the quality of sterilized milk, as it will now only be produced from fresh milk, meeting consumer demand for high-quality dairy products [6][7]. - The domestic fresh milk quality has significantly improved, with a 99.9% pass rate in inspections over the past 16 years, and major nutritional indicators reaching world-class levels [6][7]. - Major dairy companies like Yili and Mengniu have already transitioned to using fresh milk, indicating minimal impact on their operations due to the new regulation [14]. Group 3: Product Classification - Liquid milk in China is categorized into four main types: pasteurized milk, sterilized milk, blended milk, and fermented milk, with the new regulation affecting only pasteurized and sterilized milk [9][10]. - Blended milk and fermented milk are still allowed to use reconstituted milk, with specific labeling requirements [9][10]. - The market for blended milk remains diverse, with products like chocolate milk and breakfast milk still containing reconstituted milk [9][10]. Group 4: Nutritional Considerations - Concerns about the nutritional value of reconstituted milk have been addressed, indicating that while fresh milk has some advantages, reconstituted milk is not necessarily inferior [15][16]. - The nutritional loss during the heating process of reconstituted milk is less significant than commonly perceived, and it still provides essential proteins and calcium [16][17]. - The convenience and longer shelf life of reconstituted milk make it a viable option in areas where fresh milk cannot be easily stored [17].

Core Viewpoint - The revised national standard for sterilized milk, effective from September 16, 2025, prohibits the use of reconstituted milk, mandating that only fresh milk can be used as raw material, which is expected to enhance the quality of dairy products and support the domestic dairy industry [1][5][11]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The new standard clarifies that products made with reconstituted milk cannot be labeled as "pure cow (sheep) milk" and will be classified as processed milk [1][2]. - The prohibition of reconstituted milk in sterilized milk production aims to increase the demand for fresh milk, benefiting dairy farmers and improving their income [1][5][11]. Group 2: Nutritional and Quality Aspects - Fresh milk contains more active nutrients compared to reconstituted milk, leading to better taste and quality in products made from fresh milk [1][5]. - The nutritional value of reconstituted milk is inferior to that of fresh milk, as it undergoes significant nutrient loss during processing [2][3]. Group 3: Industry Impact - The ban on reconstituted milk is expected to alleviate the current oversupply of fresh milk in the market, as the demand for fresh milk will increase due to the new regulations [6][11]. - The domestic dairy industry has seen significant improvements in the quality and safety of fresh milk, with a 99.9% pass rate in inspections and a rise in production standards [4][11]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The overall demand for fresh milk is around 50-55 million tons, while actual consumption is about 45 million tons, indicating a supply surplus [6]. - In 2024, the total production of raw milk in China was 40.79 million tons, a 2.8% decrease year-on-year, marking the first decline since 2018 [7]. Group 5: Price Stability - Experts indicate that the price of fresh milk is unlikely to rise due to the current oversupply situation and the low prices of raw milk, which have been below production costs for many farmers [12][13][14]. - The average retail price of fresh milk has remained stable, with minimal fluctuations observed in 2025, despite concerns about potential price increases due to the new regulations [19][20][21].

Group 1 - The dairy sector experienced a decline of 1.30% as of the market close on September 17, with companies like Yiyaton, Lihigh Food, and Pinwo Food leading the losses [1] - Among the dairy stocks, three companies saw price increases, with New Dairy rising by 1.02%, Weiwei Co. by 0.86%, and Huanlejia by 0.30% [1] - The dairy sector faced a net outflow of 645 million yuan from major funds, with 25 stocks experiencing outflows, and 10 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 10 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The top net outflow was from Yiyaton, which saw a net outflow of 391 million yuan, followed by Beiyinmei with 63.95 million yuan and Dabeinong with 35.09 million yuan [2] - The stocks with the highest net inflow included Weiwei Co. with 9.27 million yuan, Yisheng Co. with 3.18 million yuan, and Fucheng Co. with 2.68 million yuan [2] - The dairy sector's outflow list included Yiyaton, Beiyinmei, Dabeinong, and Panda Dairy, with respective declines of 4.80%, 1.74%, 0.92%, and 3.27% [3]

Market Overview - The beverage and dairy sector increased by 0.22% on September 17, with Dongpeng Beverage leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.34, up 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13215.46, up 1.16% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Dongpeng Beverage (code: 6655599) closed at 296.88, up 1.40% with a trading volume of 17,200 lots and a transaction value of 510 million [1] - New Dairy (code: 002946) closed at 17.76, up 1.02% with a trading volume of 72,800 lots and a transaction value of 130 million [1] - Yili Group (code: 600887) remained unchanged at 28.08 with a trading volume of 483,200 lots and a transaction value of 1.358 billion [1] - Bright Dairy (code: 600597) closed at 8.65, down 0.23% with a trading volume of 100,900 lots and a transaction value of 87.26 million [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a net outflow of 283 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 253 million [2] - The main funds showed varying net inflows and outflows across different stocks, with VIVI (code: 600300) seeing a net inflow of 9.9628 million from main funds [3] - New Dairy (code: 002946) had a net outflow of 3.6952 million from main funds, while it attracted a net inflow of 7.8254 million from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue growth of 3.37% in the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 61.933 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 4.39% to 7.200 billion yuan, indicating a mixed performance amid market challenges [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 61.933 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.37% [1] - The net profit for the same period was 7.200 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 4.39% [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 36.05%, an increase of 1.26 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Operating costs were reported at 39.509 billion yuan, with a growth of 1.49% [1] - The company’s net profit margin was 11.71%, up by 0.97 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Position and Product Performance - The liquid milk business generated revenue of 36.126 billion yuan, accounting for 58.4% of total revenue, and maintained the leading market share in both offline and major e-commerce platforms [2] - The company’s milk powder and dairy products segment achieved revenue of 16.578 billion yuan, a growth of 14.26%, representing 26.77% of total revenue [3] - The company’s cold drink business reported revenue of 8.229 billion yuan, with a growth of 12.39%, and also held the leading market share [3] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company has entered the Hong Kong market through a strategic partnership with a well-known health retail chain, marking a significant step in its internationalization efforts [4] - The company is advancing its "WISH 2030" sustainable development strategy, aiming to become the global leader in the dairy industry by 2030 [4] - The company has established 81 production bases globally, with products available in over 60 countries, enhancing its supply chain and consumer insights through digital transformation [4] Group 4: Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 119 billion yuan, 123.8 billion yuan, and 128.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.1%, 4.1%, and 4.1% [5] - Expected net profits for the same years are projected at 11.4 billion yuan, 12.1 billion yuan, and 12.6 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 1.81 yuan, 1.92 yuan, and 2.00 yuan [5]

9月17日，市场全天震荡走强，三大指数探底回升。截至收盘，沪指涨0.37%，深成指涨1.16%，创业板 指涨1.95%。沪深两市成交额2.38万亿，较上一个交易日放量353亿。盘面上，全市场超2500只个股上 涨。 相关ETF方面，食品饮料ETF天弘（159736）截至收盘跌0.67%，成交额超2100万元。据Wind金融终 端，截至收盘，食品饮料ETF天弘（159736）获净申购3400万份。 资金流向方面，据Wind数据，食品饮料ETF天弘（159736）昨日获资金净流入超3700万元，近5个交易 日（9月10日—16日）累计"吸金"4675万元。 食品饮料ETF天弘（159736）紧密跟踪中证食品饮料指数，该指数覆盖酒、饮料、食品三大刚需赛道， 成分股以贵州茅台、五粮液、伊利股份等行业龙头为主。相比纯白酒指数兼顾酒、奶、调味品等多元消 费场景。此外，该指数⾏业相对分散，前⼗⼤成分股集中度较低，⼩盘股占⽐超50%。食品饮料ETF天 弘（159736）还配置了场外联接基金（A:001631；C:001632）。天弘基金表示，中证食品饮料指数弹性 高，抗单一行业波动能力更强，适合长期布局消费升级。 消息面上， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a significant slowdown in performance, with a year-on-year decline in net profit attributable to shareholders. The sector's revenue for H1 2025 reached 580.635 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.41%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 127.508 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.56% [2][16] - The report highlights that the growth rates of revenue and net profit have declined compared to H1 2024, with revenue growth down by 1.30 percentage points and net profit growth down by 14.52 percentage points. The sector's gross margin and net margin have also decreased year-on-year [2][16] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The food and beverage sector's revenue growth has slowed significantly, ranking 14th among 31 sub-industries, while net profit growth ranked 20th [2][16] - The sector's gross margin and net margin have decreased year-on-year, although the expense ratio remains relatively stable [3][21] Sub-sector Performance - Snack foods, soft drinks, and fermented seasonings showed the highest revenue growth rates, with increases of 36.36%, 9.08%, and 4.66% respectively. In terms of net profit growth, beer, fermented seasonings, and soft drinks led with increases of 12.06%, 8.04%, and 4.89% respectively [2][25] - The beer sector achieved positive growth in both revenue and net profit, with revenue increasing by 2.75% and net profit by 12.06% in H1 2025. Major beer companies like Zhujiang Beer and Yanjing Beer performed well, with net profit growth exceeding 22% [8][41] Wine Sector - The wine sector experienced a slight decline in revenue and net profit, with H1 2025 revenue at 241.508 billion yuan, down 0.86% year-on-year, and net profit at 94.561 billion yuan, down 1.18% year-on-year. This marks the first negative growth since H1 2014 [4][28] - High-end wines showed resilience, with revenue growth of 6.17% and net profit growth of 5.49%. The market share of leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye remained strong [34][35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests structural investment opportunities in the food and beverage sector, particularly in the beverage, snack, and health food industries. It emphasizes the potential in energy drinks and innovative snack brands [10] - The beer, seasoning, and dairy sectors are identified as areas for marginal improvement, while the wine sector is viewed as being in a bottoming phase, with limited downside risk [10]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector performed poorly on September 16, with the Food ETF (515710) experiencing a decline of 0.78% as of the report time [1][2] - Major consumer goods stocks, including several liquor companies, saw significant declines, with stocks like Sanquan Foods, Haitian Flavoring, Luzhou Laojiao, and Kweichow Moutai dropping over 1% [1][2] - The China Liquor Market Prosperity Index for the first half of 2025 was reported at 47.14, indicating a weak recessionary state in the market, suggesting that consumer demand is still recovering [3] Group 2 - The current valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a low point, with the Food ETF (515710) P/E ratio at 21.24, which is in the 10.37% percentile of the last decade, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a significant impact on the liquor sector due to policy changes, leading to a noticeable decline in demand, but there are signs of recovery as consumer behavior begins to normalize [4] - The Food ETF (515710) tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Food and Beverage Index, with approximately 60% of its holdings in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, and nearly 40% in beverage, dairy, seasoning, and beer sectors [5]