Investment Rating - The investment rating for Dongfang Securities is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported total operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.19 billion and 3.35 billion yuan for 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 12.3% and 21.7% respectively. The annualized weighted average ROE is 4.14%, up by 0.69 percentage points year-on-year. The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 5 billion, 6.4 billion, and 7.6 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 51%, 27%, and 18% respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.6, 0.8, and 0.9 yuan. The company has a competitive advantage with its asset management brands, Oriental Asset Management and Huatai-PineBridge, and is focusing on deepening wealth management transformation [4][6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Dongfang Securities' total revenue was 19.19 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.35 billion yuan, up 21.7% year-on-year. The gross margin improved to 18.4% and the net margin to 17.5% [4][7][10]. - The company’s self-operated investment income reached 4.9 billion yuan in 2024, a significant increase of 106% year-on-year, with a self-operated investment return rate of 4.41%, up by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [6][7]. Asset Management and Market Position - Dongfang Securities' asset management revenue decreased to 1.44 billion yuan, down 30% year-on-year, while net profit fell by 32% to 330 million yuan. The market share for non-monetary and equity AUM was 0.73% and 1.15%, respectively [5]. - Huatai-PineBridge reported a revenue of 4.83 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.55 billion yuan, reflecting a 9% increase year-on-year [5]. Brokerage and Investment Banking - The brokerage business net income decreased by 10% year-on-year, with the buy-side service model maturing and fund advisory business growing to 15.37 billion yuan, up 7.05% year-on-year [6]. - The investment banking segment saw a 23% decline in net income, primarily due to a sluggish IPO market, while the bond underwriting business increased by 36% year-on-year, ranking 6th in the market [6]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a PB ratio of 1.04, 0.98, and 0.91 for 2025-2027, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dongfang Securities [4] Core Views - Dongfang Securities reported a 2024 revenue increase of 12.3% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 21.7%, resulting in a return on equity (ROE) of 4.14% [2][3] - The significant growth in revenue is primarily driven by the investment business, which saw a 106% increase year-on-year [2][3] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.11 billion yuan, reflecting a 50.5% year-on-year increase, although the net profit for the quarter decreased by 146.6% to 0.05 billion yuan [2][3] Summary by Sections Revenue Breakdown - For the full year 2024, the revenue from various business segments is as follows: - Brokerage: 2.51 billion yuan, down 10% - Investment Banking: 1.17 billion yuan, down 23% - Asset Management: 1.34 billion yuan, down 34% - Investment: 4.93 billion yuan, up 106% - Credit Business: 1.32 billion yuan, down 25% [2][3] Financial Performance - The total revenue for 2024 was 19.19 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.35 billion yuan [2][3] - The company’s financial investment assets reached 221.93 billion yuan, a 13% increase year-on-year [3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are estimated at 20.9 billion yuan and 22.5 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9% and 8% [3] - Expected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 4.6 billion yuan and 5.1 billion yuan, with growth rates of 38% and 11% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that under the backdrop of de-globalization and trade barriers, global central bank gold purchases are expected to continue growing, driven by fluctuating U.S. tariff policies, economic data, and Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations, leading to sustained increases in gold prices [1][2] - Gold investment demand is significantly increasing, with total global demand projected to reach 4,974 tons in 2024, a 1% year-on-year increase, marking the highest level since 2010. Investment demand alone is expected to rise by 25% to 1,180 tons [1] - The net gold purchases by global central banks are projected to be 1,045 tons in 2024, marking the third consecutive year exceeding 1,000 tons, indicating a growing influence on gold pricing and a potential weakening of the dollar's status as the global reserve currency [2] Group 2 - The Chinese central bank's gold holdings represent only 6.58% of its foreign exchange reserves, indicating significant room for growth. If the gold proportion were to match Spain's level of 21.9%, it would imply a theoretical increase of 6,265.6 tons of gold; if it matched Egypt's level of 23.7%, the increase could be 7,166.9 tons [3] - Monthly net gold purchases by global central banks have remained stable from 2022 to 2024, with monthly purchases typically ranging from 50 to 100 tons. A significant increase in monthly purchases could lead to a near 5% rise in gold prices, although there may be a 1-2 month lag in the price response [4]

Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Securities reported strong financial performance in 2024, driven by significant growth in proprietary investment income, with total revenue and net profit reaching 19.19 billion and 3.35 billion yuan, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 12.3% and 21.7% [1][2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 19.19 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.35 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12.3% and 21.7% [1][2] - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) increased by 0.69 percentage points to 4.14% [1][2] - The operating leverage, excluding client funds, rose by 8.1% to 3.74 times compared to the beginning of the year [1] Quarterly Performance - In Q4, the company reported a significant recovery in performance, with revenue and net profit reaching 5.11 billion and 0.05 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 50.5% and 146.6% [2] - The recovery in the market contributed to this performance, with the overall equity market, as measured by the Wind All A Index, rising by 10.0% [3] Business Segments - Proprietary investment income surged to 5.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.2%, significantly boosting overall performance [2][3] - Brokerage, investment banking, asset management, interest income, and proprietary income for the year were 2.51 billion, 1.17 billion, 1.34 billion, 1.32 billion, and 5.38 billion yuan, respectively, with declines in brokerage, investment banking, asset management, and interest income, while proprietary income saw substantial growth [2] Market Conditions - The market showed signs of recovery, with average daily trading volume in the two markets reaching 1.8529 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 122.5% [4] - The number of client accounts increased to 2.9198 million, up 8.5% from the beginning of the year, and total custodial assets reached 878.273 billion yuan, a 17.74% increase [4] Asset Management - The asset management business faced challenges, with revenue declining to 1.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.9% [5] - Despite the decline, the company maintained a leading position in active management, with a ten-year stock investment return rate of 165.10%, ranking first in the industry [5] Long-term Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the capital markets, with projected net profits of 3.62 billion and 3.74 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 22.9 and 22.2, and price-to-book ratios of 1.11 and 1.06 [5]

丨证券研究报告丨 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 吴一凡 SAC：S0490519080007 SFC：BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% 公司研究丨点评报告丨东方证券（600958.SH） [Table_Title] 东方证券 2024 年报点评：自营高增提振业绩表 现，期待资管及财富优势显现 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2024 年东方证券自营投资高增提振整体业绩表现，泛财富条线有所承压但降幅逐步收窄。展望 未来，公司仍是券商在财富管理和资产管理中受益的标杆，资本市场高位运行背景下期待公司 大资管+大财富优势逐步显现，维持买入评级。 [Table_Title 东方证券 2024 2] 年报点评：自营高增提振业绩表 现，期待资管及财富优势显现 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 东方证券发布 2024 年年报，报告期内分别实现营业收入和归母净利润 191.9、33.5 亿元，同 比分别+12.3%、+21.7%；加权平均净资产收益率同比+0.69pct 至 4.14%；剔除客户资金后的 经营杠杆较年初+8.1%至 3.74 倍。 事件评论 风险提示 1 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年03月30日 东方证券（600958.SH） 优于大市 自营回暖，业绩反转 东方证券发布 2024 年年报。公司 2024 年实现营业收入 191.90 亿元，同比 +12.29%；实现归母净利润 33.50 亿元,同比+21.66%；基本每股收益为 0.37， 同比+23.33%；加权平均 ROE4.14%，同比+0.69pct。分条线看，2024 年营收 同比增速：经纪-9.71%、投行-22.65%、资管-33.89%、利息-25.11%、投资 +106.31%；占比分别为 13.08%、6.09%、6.99%、6.89%、25.67%。公司业绩 增长的主因系受债券及权益市场回暖影响，自营业务大幅提升所致。公司以 "大财富、大投行、大机构"三大业务为主线，推动业务转型。 财富及资产管理：金融产品代销和机构财富业务发力。金融产品代销和机构 理财等方面，2024 年，资本市场交投活跃，公司托管资产总额、非货产品销 售规模、非货币保有规模、机构理财保有规模分别为 8,782.73 亿元、209.56 亿元、558.24 亿元、182.06 亿元，同比分别+17.74%、+26.20 ...

投资业务驱动业绩增长。1）公司投资业务净收入同比+81.16%至53.84 亿元，贡献了调整后营收（营业 收入-其他业务支出）增量的678.28%，是业绩改善主因，主要是权益、固收市场全年同比向好背景下， 投资收益率同比+1.04pct 至2.36%。其中，2024Q4 公司投资净收入19.09 亿元环比-54.57%，主要受Q4 固收市场行情波动影响。 2）此外，公司资管业务（含私募基金管理）、经纪业务收入同比-33.9%及-9.7%，拖累业绩。 政策大力引导中长期机构资金入市，公司有望把握政策机遇，实现业绩增长。1）1 月22 日，中央金融 办等部门联合印发《关于推动中长期资金入市工作的实施方案》并于次日召开新闻发布会，推动中长期 机构资金入市。居民对权益市场的信心持续提振，股基交易持续活跃。2）公司旗下资管业务坚持逆势 布局主动权益基金，持续丰富固定收益和股票指数类产品线，打造客需导向的产品管理体系与产品生命 周期系统。优化投研一体化平台，打造专业投研队伍，投研核心能力持续提升，有望更好地把握增量资 金入市机遇。 本报告导读： 2024 年公司投资业务驱动业绩增长。 政策大力引导中长期机构资金入市，公司 ...

资管业务为公司传统优势业务，在权益市场稳定上行和财富管理转型的行业趋势下，看好公司凭借大资 管业务优势兑现长期成长。预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为37.93、40.98、44.76 亿元，同比分 别+13.2%、+8.0%、+9.2%，对应3 月28 日收盘价的PB 估值分别1.03、0.98、0.93 倍，维持"买入"评 级。 风险提示：政策风险、市场大幅波动、经营及业务风险。 公司其他债权投资、其他权益工具投资规模分别同比+21.7%、+211.8%。 事件：东方证券发布2024 年年报，2024 年分别实现营业收入和归母净利润191.90、33.50 亿元，同比分 别+12.3%、+21.7%；四季度分别实现营业收入和归母净利润51.11、0.48 亿元，环比分 别-7.2%、-96.0%，净利润环比大幅下降系Q4 计提管理费用大幅提升。加权平均ROE 同比+0.7pct 至 4.1%，剔除客户资金后经营杠杆较年初增加8.1%至3.74 倍。 投行资管有所承压，客户基础不断扩大。2024 年公司实现经纪、投行和资管净收入分别为25.11、 11.68、13.41 亿元，同比分别-9.7% ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Securities (600958) has shown positive financial performance with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit for 2024, indicating a strong operational capacity and potential for future growth [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the year 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 19.19 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.29% [2][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.35 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year growth of 21.66% [2]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 3.24 billion RMB, which is a 23.36% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a quarterly revenue of 5.11 billion RMB, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 50.53% [2][4]. - The quarterly net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 was 48.16 million RMB, showing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 146.57% [2]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items for Q4 was 56.85 million RMB, which is a 164.43% increase year-on-year [2]. Dividend Distribution Summary - The company announced a profit distribution plan for 2024, proposing a cash dividend of 1.00 RMB per 10 shares (including tax) [3][4]. - Based on the total share capital of 8,496,645,292 shares as of December 31, 2024, the total cash dividend payout is estimated to be approximately 846.18 million RMB, which accounts for 25.26% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [3]. - The total cash dividends distributed for the first half of 2024 amounted to approximately 634.64 million RMB, leading to a cumulative dividend total of approximately 1.48 billion RMB for the year, representing 44.20% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [3].

| 百万元 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 17,090.00 | 19,190.10 | 21,351.23 | 22,509.83 | 24,462.61 | | 收入同比增长率 | -8.75 | 12.29 | 11.26 | 5.43 | 8.68 | | 归属母公司净利润 | 2,754.00 | 3,350.20 | 4,250.78 | 4,801.15 | 5,369.14 | | 净利润同比增长率 | -8.52 | 21.65 | 26.88 | 12.95 | 11.83 | | 每股收益 | 0.32 | 0.38 | 0.50 | 0.57 | 0.63 | | ROE | 3.77 | 4.33 | 5.47 | 5.95 | 6.41 | | P/E | 30.11 | 25.51 | 19.51 | 17.27 | 15.45 | | P/B | 1.12 | 1.09 | 1.05 | 1.01 | 0.97 | | 注："每股收益" ...