Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the engineering machinery industry, with expectations of domestic and international demand recovery [6][31]. Core Insights - The engineering machinery industry is expected to benefit from a domestic demand recovery that exceeds expectations, leading to a resonance between domestic and international markets [6][31]. - The excavator segment is showing signs of recovery, while other machinery types are stabilizing, indicating a potential for overall industry growth [6][31]. - The report highlights significant improvements in profitability, with a projected year-on-year increase in net profit of 26% for 2024 and 41% for Q1 2025 [13][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a recovery phase, with excavators leading the way in sales growth [6][31]. - The report notes that the domestic excavator sales for 2024 are expected to reach 101,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [12]. Financial Performance - The total revenue for the engineering machinery sector is projected to increase by 3% in 2024 and 11% in Q1 2025, driven by domestic demand and export recovery [12][9]. - The net profit for the sector is expected to rise significantly, with major companies like SANY Heavy Industry and Zoomlion showing strong profit growth [16][14]. Company Analysis - SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and LiuGong are identified as leading companies in the excavator market, with SANY's revenue growth outpacing the industry average [12][40]. - The report provides detailed financial metrics for 13 listed companies in the engineering machinery sector, highlighting their market capitalization, revenue, and profit margins [4][12]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the cyclical nature of the industry, indicating that the bottom of the cycle has been reached and a replacement cycle is underway [32][35]. - It emphasizes the importance of cost control and efficiency improvements among leading companies, which have contributed to enhanced profitability [22][27]. Export Market - The global excavator market is projected to recover as interest rates decline, with emerging markets showing strong demand for mid to large-sized excavators [43][44]. - The report notes that exports to new markets are performing well, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America, which are expected to drive future growth [44].

中国国际金融股份有限公司（以下简称"中金公司"或"保荐机构"）作为 江苏恒立液压股份有限公司（以下简称"恒立液压"或"公司"）持续督导的保 荐机构，根据《证券发行上市保荐业务管理办法》《上海证券交易所股票上市规 则》《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 11 号——持续督导》《上海证券 交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 1 号——规范运作》以及《上市公司监管指引第 2 号——上市公司募集资金管理和使用的监管要求（2022 年修订）》等相关法律、 法规和规范性文件的规定，中金公司出具 2024 年度持续督导年度报告书。 序 号 项目 工作内容 1 建立健全并有效执行持续督导工作制度， 并针对具体的持续督导工作制定相应的工 作计划 保荐机构已建立健全并有效执行了持 续督导制度，并制定了相应的工作计 划 2 根据中国证监会相关规定，在持续督导工 作开始前，与上市公司或相关当事人签署 持续督导协议，明确双方在持续督导期间 的权利和义务，并报上海证券交易所备案 保荐机构已与恒立液压签署保荐协 议，该协议明确了双方在持续督导期 间的权利和义务，并报上海证券交易 所备案 3 通过日常沟通、定期回访、现场检查、尽 职调查等方式 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 86.24 CNY for the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 9.39 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.51%, and a net profit of 2.509 billion CNY, up 0.4% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.422 billion CNY, a 2.56% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 618 million CNY, up 2.61% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on overseas capacity construction and electrification, with significant capital expenditures planned for 2023 and 2024, amounting to 1.37 billion CNY and 1.07 billion CNY respectively [1]. - The company is experiencing robust growth due to increased market share in excavator pumps and valves, expansion in non-construction machinery sectors, and international business growth [1]. Financial Performance - The company's gross and net profit margins for 2024 were 42.8% and 26.8%, respectively, with slight changes year-on-year [2]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 39.4% and the net margin was 25.6% [2]. - R&D expenses for 2024 and Q1 2025 were 728 million CNY and 149 million CNY, reflecting increases of 4.8% and 40% year-on-year, respectively [2]. Business Development - The linear actuator project is progressing, with trial production expected to start in Q2 2024, and the Mexican factory project has reached 75% completion and is now in trial production [3]. - The company aims to enhance its electric strategy and expand its presence in the North American market through these initiatives [3]. Revenue Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 10.48 billion CNY, 12.16 billion CNY, and 14.17 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.6%, 16%, and 16.5% respectively [8]. - Net profit projections for the same period are 2.63 billion CNY, 3 billion CNY, and 3.61 billion CNY, with growth rates of 5%, 14.1%, and 20.3% respectively [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 9.39 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.51%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.51 billion yuan, up 0.40% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.39 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.51% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 2.51 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.40% year-on-year [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 2.42 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.56% [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The hydraulic pump and valve segment was the main driver of revenue growth in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 9.63% [2] - The hydraulic cylinder segment experienced a modest revenue growth of 1.44% in 2024, primarily driven by non-standard cylinders in heavy equipment [2] - The company’s international revenue grew by 7.6% year-on-year, accounting for 22.2% of total revenue, an increase of 0.6 percentage points [2] Group 3: Market Trends - The domestic excavator industry saw a significant increase in sales, with a year-on-year growth of 38.3% in the first quarter of 2025, benefiting the company's related businesses [3] - The company anticipates good growth in its excavator-related business due to the upward cycle in domestic excavator sales [3] - The marine engineering and industrial sectors are expected to continue driving growth in non-standard hydraulic components [3] Group 4: Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 42.83%, an increase of 1.09 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to cost reduction and product structure optimization [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 26.76%, a decrease of 1.11 percentage points year-on-year, due to increased sales and management expenses [3] - The company expects a slowdown in the rate of increase in expense ratios as new production capacity begins to contribute to revenue in 2025 [3] Group 5: New Projects - The linear drive project has entered mass production, expected to contribute to new revenue and profit growth [4] - The company has developed various products for the linear drive project and has begun trial production and validation [4] - Projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 2.86 billion yuan and 3.35 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 35 and 30 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - In 2024, the company's main business revenue is expected to grow by 4.47% year-on-year, with the hydraulic pump and valve segment driving this growth at 9.63%, while the hydraulic cylinder segment sees a modest increase of 1.44% [2][6] - The domestic excavator industry is experiencing a significant increase in sales, with a projected recovery in the company's excavator-related business due to the upward cycle in the domestic excavator market and ongoing domestic substitution of excavator pumps and valves [2][6] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve significantly in 2024, benefiting from ongoing internal management efficiency improvements and product structure optimization [2][6] - The linear drive project has entered mass production, which is anticipated to contribute to new revenue and profit growth [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 9.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.51%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.51 billion yuan, up 0.40% year-on-year [6] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.56%, and a net profit of 618 million yuan, up 2.61% year-on-year [6] Business Segments - The hydraulic pump and valve segment is the main driver of revenue growth, while the hydraulic cylinder segment's growth is primarily supported by non-standard cylinders in sectors like marine engineering [12] - The company anticipates strong growth in its excavator business throughout the year, supported by the domestic excavator industry's upward cycle and the continued domestic substitution of excavator pumps and valves [12] Profitability - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 42.83%, an increase of 1.09 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is expected to be 26.76%, a decrease of 1.11 percentage points year-on-year [12] - The company expects to see a slowdown in the rate of increase in expense ratios as new production capacity begins to contribute to revenue [12] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.86 billion yuan and 3.35 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 35 and 30 [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the engineering machinery industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a recovery, with revenue growth driven by diversification and internationalization, as well as a shift from excavators to non-excavator products in the domestic market [9][10] - In Q1 2025, the sector's revenue reached 78.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 36.5% [9][10] - The overall profitability of the sector is improving, with gross margins benefiting from product structure optimization and cost reduction efforts [13][19] Revenue Performance - In 2024, the engineering machinery sector achieved a total revenue of 284.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [9] - The revenue for Q1 2025 was 78.4 billion yuan, reflecting a significant acceleration compared to 2024 [9][10] - Major companies such as Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG Machinery showed varied revenue growth rates, influenced by product mix and international market presence [10] Profitability Analysis - The sector's net profit for 2024 was 21.4 billion yuan, up 17.8% year-on-year, with Q1 2025 net profit reaching 7.7 billion yuan, a 36.5% increase [9][19] - The gross margin for the main machinery manufacturers was 24.7% in 2024, up 1.24 percentage points from the previous year [13][14] - The net profit margin for the main machinery segment in Q1 2025 was 9.3%, reflecting a 1.97 percentage point increase year-on-year [19] Cost Management - The report highlights that the main machinery manufacturers have improved cost control, leading to a decrease in R&D and management expense ratios [20][21] - The overall R&D expense ratio for the main machinery manufacturers was 5.2% in 2024, down 0.60 percentage points year-on-year [20][21] Sales and Marketing - The sales expense ratio for the main machinery manufacturers increased to 6.8% in 2024, attributed to expanded overseas operations and marketing networks [24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a steady performance with a revenue of 9.39 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.51%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.51 billion yuan, up by 0.40%, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses decreased by 6.61% to 2.29 billion yuan. The cash flow from operating activities was 2.48 billion yuan, down by 7.40% [5][6] - The hydraulic cylinder product structure has improved, with revenue from hydraulic cylinders reaching 4.76 billion yuan, a 1.44% increase year-on-year. The gross margin for this segment increased by 1.41 percentage points. Revenue from hydraulic pumps and valves grew by 9.63% to 3.58 billion yuan, benefiting from increased market share in excavator pump and valve products [6] - The company's internationalization strategy is showing initial results, with overseas business revenue totaling 2.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.61%, accounting for 22% of total revenue. The linear drive project has entered mass production, with a complete processing capability achieved in September 2024 [7] Financial Summary - For 2025-2027, the company forecasts revenue of 10.32 billion yuan, 11.92 billion yuan, and 13.80 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 2.79 billion yuan, 3.32 billion yuan, and 3.90 billion yuan, respectively. The diluted EPS is expected to be 2.08 yuan, 2.48 yuan, and 2.91 yuan for the same period [8][10] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 42.8% in 2024 to 45.1% in 2027, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 15.9% to 17.5% over the same period [10][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a steady performance with a revenue of 9.39 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.51%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.51 billion yuan, up by 0.40%, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 2.29 billion yuan, down by 6.61% [5][10] - The hydraulic cylinder product structure has improved, with revenue from hydraulic cylinders reaching 4.76 billion yuan, a 1.44% increase year-on-year, and a gross margin increase of 1.41 percentage points. Revenue from hydraulic pumps and valves grew by 9.63% to 3.58 billion yuan, benefiting from increased market share in excavator pump and valve products [6] - The company has accelerated its internationalization strategy, achieving overseas revenue of 2.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.61%, accounting for 22% of total revenue. The linear drive project has entered mass production, with a complete processing capability established [7] Financial Summary - For 2025-2027, the revenue forecast is 10.32 billion yuan, 11.92 billion yuan, and 13.80 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 2.79 billion yuan, 3.32 billion yuan, and 3.90 billion yuan, respectively. The diluted EPS is expected to be 2.08 yuan, 2.48 yuan, and 2.91 yuan [8][10] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 42.8% in 2024 to 45.1% in 2027, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 15.9% to 17.5% over the same period [10][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [6][17]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 9.39 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.51%, and a record high in revenue [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 2.51 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year, driven by market share gains in hydraulic pump and valve products, as well as growth in non-engineering machinery products and overseas market expansion [1][2]. - The company is advancing its electrification strategy and has commenced mass production of linear actuators, which is expected to become a new growth driver [3]. - The company is actively expanding its international and diversified operations, with overseas revenue growing by 7.61% year-on-year in 2024 [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 42.83%, an increase of 0.93 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 26.76%, a decrease of 1.11 percentage points [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.42 billion yuan, up 2.56% year-on-year, and a net profit of 618 million yuan, reflecting a 2.61% increase [2]. - The company forecasts net profits of 2.77 billion yuan, 3.31 billion yuan, and 3.90 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 36, 30, and 26 [4][5]. Product Performance - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows hydraulic cylinders at 4.76 billion yuan, hydraulic pumps and valves at 3.58 billion yuan, hydraulic systems at 296 million yuan, and parts and castings at 684 million yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 1.44%, 9.63%, 1.64%, and 1.76% [2].

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 恒立液压（601100）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） 业绩符合预期，看好下游复苏以及新业务放量 事项： 公司发布 2024 年年度和 2025 年一季度报告，2024 年实现营业总收入 93.9 亿 元，同比增长 4.51%，归母净利润 25.1 亿元，同比增长 0.40%，扣非归母净利 润 22.8 亿元，同比下降 6.61%。2025 年一季度实现营业总收入 24.2 亿元，同 比增长 2.56%，归母净利润 6.2 亿元，同比增长 2.61%，扣非归母净利润 6.8 亿 元，同比增长 16.42%。 评论： 基础件 2025 年 05 月 01 日 目标价：96.4 元 当前价：73.71 元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：范益民 电话：021-20572562 邮箱：fanyimin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523020001 证券分析师：陈宏洋 邮箱：chenhongyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524100002 公司基本数据 | 总股本(万股) | 134,082.10 | | --- | --- | ...