Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the banking industry [4][70]. Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the banking sector shows improvement, with a slight increase in net profit despite revenue decline [11][69]. - Retail loan non-performing loans (NPLs) are expected to remain high in 2025, but a turning point is anticipated in 2026 [2][49]. - The net interest margin (NIM) is projected to narrow by approximately 12 basis points in 2025, with net interest income expected to stabilize near zero [55][69]. - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the banking sector due to external uncertainties, recommending high-dividend stocks in the short term, while favoring high-growth quality stocks for the year [70]. Summary by Sections Overall Review - In 2024, 23 listed banks reported a revenue decline of 0.6% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 1.8%, indicating a slight improvement in performance [11][69]. - The main factors affecting net profit growth include a 11.1% decline due to narrowing NIM and an 8.7% increase from scale expansion [14][69]. Asset Quality Outlook - The NPL generation rate for retail loans is expected to remain volatile at high levels in 2025, with a potential turning point in 2026 [2][49]. - The overall NPL ratio for the 23 listed banks was 1.25% at the end of 2024, showing a slight improvement [16][23]. Performance Outlook - The report predicts a revenue growth rate of approximately -1% and a net profit growth rate of about 1% for 2025, marking the end of the current performance downturn cycle [69][70]. - The NIM is expected to narrow by 12 basis points, while net interest income is projected to stabilize near zero [55][69]. Investment Recommendations - In the short term, high-dividend stocks such as China Merchants Bank and Jiangsu Bank are recommended due to the lack of clear positive changes in the macroeconomic environment [70]. - For the entire year, high-growth quality stocks like China Merchants Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Changshu Bank are favored [70].

Core Insights - The financial reports of 23 A-share listed banks for 2024 show stable revenue and profit, with total revenue at 5.04 trillion yuan and net profit at 1.93 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight year-on-year decline of 0.6% in revenue and a growth of 1.88% in profit [1][2][3] Revenue and Profit Analysis - Total revenue for the 23 listed banks in 2024 is 5.04 trillion yuan, down 0.6% from the previous year [2] - The six major state-owned banks reported a total revenue of 3.52 trillion yuan, a decrease of 94.25 billion yuan from last year [2] - Among the state-owned banks, Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank experienced revenue declines of 2.54% and 2.52%, respectively [2] - In contrast, most city and rural commercial banks showed revenue growth, with eight banks reporting increases, including Ruifeng Bank and Changshu Bank, which grew by 15.29% and 10.53% respectively [2] Net Profit Performance - The net profit for the 23 listed banks totaled 1.93 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.88% [3] - State-owned banks achieved a combined net profit of 1.42 trillion yuan, with Agricultural Bank leading the growth at 4.76% [3] - Among the listed joint-stock banks, three reported declines in net profit, with Minsheng Bank experiencing a notable drop of 9.07% [3] Net Interest Margin Trends - The average net interest margin for the 23 listed banks in 2024 was 1.65%, down from 1.83% in 2023, reflecting a decrease of 19 basis points [5][6] - The net interest margin for major state-owned banks is generally below 1.5%, with only Postal Savings Bank exceeding this threshold at 1.87% [6][7] Asset Quality and Risks - Overall asset quality among listed banks is improving, with most banks reporting a decline in non-performing loan (NPL) ratios [9] - However, there are structural risks, particularly in personal operating loans, which have seen a significant increase in both scale and NPL ratios, averaging 1.81% across ten banks, up 29 basis points from 2023 [9][10] - The total balance of personal operating loans across 19 banks reached 8.32 trillion yuan, a 40.8% increase from the previous year [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the net profit of listed banks is expected to grow by 1.8% year-on-year for 2024, with a notable increase in growth rate compared to the first three quarters [4][10]. - Revenue decline is narrowing, with a projected revenue growth rate of -0.6% for 2024, an improvement from -1.6% in the previous quarters [11][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic economic recovery and the impact of recent growth-stabilizing policies on banking performance [14]. Summary by Sections 1. Profitability Breakdown - The net interest income for listed banks is expected to decline by 2.3% in 2024, an improvement from a 3.2% decline in the first three quarters [11][12]. - Non-interest income, particularly from investment gains, is projected to increase by 28% due to falling bond yields, partially offsetting revenue pressures [11][12]. - The report notes that the cost-to-income ratio has increased to 32.8%, reflecting a 0.5 percentage point rise year-on-year [7]. 2. Operational Analysis - Asset growth for listed banks has decreased to 7.2%, with loan growth at 7.7%, indicating stable overall growth despite a slight decline [22][23]. - The annualized net interest margin is projected to decrease to 1.43%, primarily due to asset pricing pressures [24]. - The report indicates that the quality of assets remains stable, with non-performing loan ratios showing slight fluctuations but overall stability [7][22]. 3. Dividend and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights a stable dividend payout ratio, with 9 banks increasing their dividend rates compared to the previous year [7]. - Investment recommendations focus on "pro-cyclical and high dividend" strategies, with an average dividend yield of 4.3% for the sector, which remains attractive compared to risk-free rates [7][8]. - Specific banks recommended for investment include Chengdu Bank, Suzhou Bank, and Ningbo Bank, which are expected to benefit from regional economic recovery [8][14].

Core Insights - The credit card business in China is facing challenges, with a notable decline in transaction volumes and an increase in non-performing loans, despite some banks like China Construction Bank achieving significant growth in credit card loan balances [1][4][8]. Group 1: Credit Card Loan Balances - China Construction Bank (CCB) has become the first bank in the country to surpass 1 trillion yuan in credit card loans, reaching 1.07 trillion yuan in 2024, an increase of 688 billion yuan from the end of 2023 [2][3]. - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) showed the most significant growth in credit card loans, increasing by 1.587 billion yuan, with its share in personal loans rising from 8.67% to 9.73% [3]. - Ping An Bank experienced a substantial reduction in credit card loans, with a balance of 435 billion yuan, down 791 billion yuan year-on-year, leading to a decrease in its share of personal loans from 25.99% to 24.62% [3]. Group 2: Asset Quality and Non-Performing Loans - The overall asset quality of credit card loans has deteriorated, with banks like Changshu Bank and Chongqing Bank reporting significant increases in non-performing loan ratios, rising to 4.14% and 3.04% respectively [4][5]. - The total amount of overdue credit card loans reached 123.964 billion yuan by the end of 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 26.32% [5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The total number of credit cards in circulation has decreased significantly, dropping from 807 million in mid-2022 to 727 million by the end of 2024, a reduction of 80 million cards [8]. - Credit card transaction volumes have also declined, with major banks like China Merchants Bank and Ping An Bank reporting decreases in credit card spending of approximately 390 billion yuan and 460 billion yuan respectively [8][10]. - The shift towards consumer loans is evident, with several banks reporting an increase in the proportion of consumer loans within their personal loan portfolios, indicating a strategic pivot in response to market conditions [11][12]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments by Banks - Some banks are restructuring their credit card operations, with China Merchants Bank and Ping An Bank focusing on high-quality customer acquisition and adjusting their credit card issuance strategies [8][10]. - Traffic Bank is transitioning to a localized management model for its credit card business, aiming to provide integrated financial services to better meet customer needs [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][26]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue growth of 10.6% year-on-year in 2024, with net profit increasing by 16.2% [5][10]. - The growth in net interest income was 7.55% year-on-year, while non-interest income saw a significant increase of 29.31% [5][19]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.77% [22][24]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 was 9,869 million, projected to grow to 10,912 million in 2024, and further to 11,554 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 12.0% in 2023 and 10.6% in 2024 [3][10]. - Net profit for 2023 was 3,280 million, expected to rise to 3,813 million in 2024 and 4,291 million in 2025, with growth rates of 19.6% and 16.3% respectively [3][10]. Income Sources - Net interest income is projected to be 9,143 million in 2024, with a slight decrease in net interest margin to 2.61% [27]. - Non-interest income is expected to contribute significantly, with net non-interest income accounting for 16.2% of total revenue in 2024 [19][21]. Asset Quality - The company reported a non-performing loan generation rate of 1.43% for the year, with a stable non-performing loan ratio of 0.77% [22][24]. - The provision coverage ratio stands at 500.38%, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [24]. Market Position and Strategy - The company focuses on personal operating loans, maintaining a strong risk control framework and expanding its market reach [26]. - The business model emphasizes a diversified customer base, contributing to sustained asset quality [26]. Future Projections - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 42.9 billion and 47.5 billion respectively, with an increase in the 2027 forecast to 52 billion [26][27]. - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratios are projected to decrease from 0.76 in 2024 to 0.53 by 2027, indicating potential undervaluation [3][26].

证券代码：601128 证券简称：常熟银行 公告编号：2025-014 转债代码：113062 转债简称：常银转债 可转债转股结果暨股份变动的公告 江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司（以下简称"本行"）董事会及全体董 事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： 累计转股情况：截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日，累计已有人民币 321,000 元常 银转债转为本行 A 股普通股，累计转股股数为 40,957 股，占常银转债转股前本 行已发行普通股股份总额的 0.0015%。 2025 年第一季度转股情况：2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 3 月 31 日，累 计有人民币 10,000 元常银转债转为本行 A 股普通股，累计转股股数为 1,450 股。 未转股可转债情况：截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日，尚未转股的常银转债金额 为人民币 5,999,679,000 元，占常银转债发行总量的比例为 99.9947%。 一、可转债发行上市概况 经中国证券监督管理委员会"证监许可〔2022〕1688 号"文核准，本 ...

Core Viewpoint - Changshu Bank reported a revenue of 10.909 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.813 billion yuan, up 16.2% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The narrowing of interest margin drag contributed positively to performance, with the net interest margin drag on performance at 5.7 percentage points, a reduction of 2.3 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - Other non-interest income contributed 2.4 percentage points to performance, primarily due to a 56.0% year-on-year increase in investment income [1] - Cost and expense contribution to performance weakened, with a contribution of only 0.3 percentage points, a decrease of 7.2 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2024, mainly due to a 10.8% year-on-year increase in employee expenses to 2.536 billion yuan [1] - Provisioning significantly contributed to performance, with a contribution of 9.1 percentage points, an increase of 10.5 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2024, mainly due to a reduction in impairment losses on debt investments [1] Group 2: Loan and Deposit Trends - Retail loan demand showed a marginal decline, with personal operating loans, consumer loans, and credit card balances decreasing by 600 million yuan, 200 million yuan, and 700 million yuan respectively compared to the end of the first half of 2024 [2] - Corporate loan balance reached 89.9 billion yuan at the end of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, with notable growth in the construction and leasing services sector and wholesale and retail sector, increasing by 23.5% and 25.7% respectively [2] Group 3: Interest Rate and Cost Management - The net interest margin for 2024 was 2.71%, a decrease of 4 basis points compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [3] - The yield on interest-earning assets was under pressure, with a return of 4.77% in 2024, down 12 basis points from the first half of 2024, and the estimated loan and advance yield for the second half of 2024 was 5.50%, a decrease of 25 basis points [3] - The cost of interest-bearing liabilities was 2.23% in 2024, down 3 basis points from the first half of 2024, with a slight increase in the proportion of time deposits leading to limited improvement in deposit costs [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.2%, 12.0%, and 11.0% for 2025-2027, with corresponding price-to-book ratios of 0.67, 0.59, and 0.53 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Changshu Bank [9]. Core Views - Changshu Bank focuses on long-termism with a strategic core in micro and small enterprise finance, maintaining a leading growth rate in performance compared to listed banks. The bank is expanding through village and town banks to create a second growth curve, opening up long-term growth potential for asset scale. Short-term macroeconomic fluctuations have impacted credit demand and asset quality indicators, with a recommendation to monitor the pace of macroeconomic recovery and expectations for improvement in retail credit asset quality in 2025. Currently, Changshu Bank's valuation stands at 0.65x 2025 PB, indicating a significant discount compared to historical average valuation levels and other quality regional bank stocks [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Changshu Bank reported a revenue growth rate of 10.5% (11.3% in the first three quarters, 8.1% in the fourth quarter), and a net profit growth rate of 16.2% (18.2% in the first three quarters, 9.7% in the fourth quarter). The year-end non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.77%, up 2 basis points from the beginning of the year, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 28 percentage points to 501% [6][9]. Credit and Loan Growth - The total loan amount grew by 8.3% compared to the beginning of the year, marking the first time in recent years that growth fell below 10%. This slowdown is primarily due to insufficient effective demand from micro and small customers in the current macroeconomic environment. Retail loans increased by only 2.2%, with personal operating loans growing by 4.0% and consumer loans by 5.5%. Corporate loans, primarily to micro customers, grew by 16.1%, supporting the overall loan scale [6][11]. Interest Income and Asset Quality - The net interest margin for 2024 decreased by 15 basis points to 2.71%, yet remains significantly higher than the industry average, leading to a 7.5% year-on-year increase in net interest income. Non-interest income surged by 29.1%, driven by favorable bond market conditions. The bank's ability to extract high-yield assets and manage risk pricing remains strong, with personal loan yields only declining by 10 basis points to 6.80% [6][11]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that while short-term macroeconomic fluctuations may impact credit demand and asset quality, Changshu Bank is expected to enhance credit issuance through value extraction from existing customers. The bank's valuation is currently at a significant discount, indicating potential for recovery and growth in the coming years [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Changshu Bank (stock code: 601128) [1] Core Views - Changshu Bank demonstrated excellent performance in 2024, with revenue of 10.909 billion yuan (+10.53%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.813 billion yuan (+16.20%). The return on equity (ROE) reached 14.15% (+0.46 percentage points) [4] - The bank's net interest income was 9.142 billion yuan (+7.54%), with a net interest margin (NIM) of 2.71%, showing a slight decline of 15 basis points year-on-year, but the downward pressure is narrowing [4] - Non-interest income grew significantly, reaching 1.767 billion yuan (+29.07%), driven by strong performance in intermediary business and investment income [4] - The asset quality remains strong, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.77% (+0.02 percentage points) and a provision coverage ratio of 500.51%, indicating robust risk mitigation capabilities [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the bank's total revenue was 10.909 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.53%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.813 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 16.20% [4][32] - The bank's interest income was 9.142 billion yuan, with a net interest margin of 2.71%, showing a decline of 15 basis points year-on-year [4][33] Loan and Deposit Growth - Total loans increased by 8.28% year-on-year, with corporate loans growing by 16.11% and personal loans by 2.17% [4] - Total deposits grew by 15.57%, with personal time deposits increasing by 19.76%, indicating effective cost optimization [4] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income reached 1.767 billion yuan, a significant increase of 29.07%, with fees and commissions growing by 158.54% [4][33] Asset Quality - The bank's NPL ratio stood at 0.77%, with a provision coverage ratio of 500.51%, indicating strong asset quality management [4][32] Future Outlook - The bank's strategy focuses on small and micro enterprises, with a strong competitive edge in personal operating loans. The integration of village and town banks is accelerating, suggesting promising growth potential in the future [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Changshu Bank is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 9.63 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 6.96 CNY [5]. Core Views - Changshu Bank reported a revenue growth of 10.53% for 2024, with a pre-provision profit growth of 10.59% and a net profit growth of 16.20%, indicating strong performance [1][10]. - The bank's asset scale increased by 9.61% year-on-year, with total loans growing by 8.28% [1]. - Retail loan growth was modest at 2.17% year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown in consumer demand and increased competition in the market [2]. - Corporate loans and bill discounts saw stronger growth, with increases of 16.11% and 23.81% respectively, as the bank focuses on supporting technology startups and small enterprises [2]. - The net interest margin for Q4 2024 was 2.59%, showing resilience despite a slight decline [3][9]. - Non-interest income decreased by 14.63% year-on-year, impacting overall profit growth [9]. - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.77% and a provision coverage ratio of 500.51% [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 was 10,909 million CNY, with a growth rate of 10.53% [12]. - Net profit for 2024 reached 3,813 million CNY, reflecting a growth of 16.20% [12]. - The cost-to-income ratio increased to 41.37%, up 12.28 percentage points year-on-year [9]. Asset and Liability Management - Total assets grew by 9.61% year-on-year, with loans making up 64.85% of the earning assets [1]. - Retail deposits increased by 15.57% year-on-year, with a retail deposit ratio of 71.19% [2]. Risk and Quality Indicators - The non-performing loan generation rate for 2024 was estimated at 1.37%, indicating some pressure in retail credit [10]. - The bank's focus on risk management has led to improvements in the attention and overdue rates [10]. Future Outlook - For 2025, revenue is expected to grow by 9.71%, with net profit growth projected at 13.39% [10]. - The bank aims to enhance customer service and deepen its engagement with existing clients to drive growth [10].