Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Changshu Bank [6] Core Views - Changshu Bank is expected to benefit from the reform of village banks, which will enhance its market share and expand its operational footprint in Jiangsu Province [20][22] - The bank's growth strategy includes replicating its successful micro and small enterprise lending model across Jiangsu, leveraging the strong demand for inclusive finance in the region [2][27] - The bank's financial outlook remains strong, with projected revenue and profit growth outpacing industry averages, supported by a robust net interest margin and stable asset quality [5][11] Summary by Sections 1. Growth Opportunities - The reform policies for village banks present significant expansion opportunities, with Changshu Bank planning to acquire and convert village banks into branches, thereby increasing its operational presence in underserved areas [20][22] - The bank has already announced the acquisition of several village banks, which will allow it to enhance its service offerings in regions where it currently lacks branches [21][22] 2. Market Expansion and Model Replication - Changshu Bank aims to replicate its successful micro-lending model in other areas of Jiangsu, capitalizing on the province's strong growth in inclusive finance, with a projected balance of inclusive micro loans reaching CNY 3.75 trillion by the end of 2024, growing at 15.6% year-on-year [2][27] - The bank's market share in regions where it has established branches has been increasing, with significant growth in asset size and market penetration observed in recent years [27] 3. Financial Performance Outlook - The bank's revenue, pre-provision operating profit (PPOP), and net profit attributable to shareholders are projected to grow by 10.5%, 10.6%, and 16.2% year-on-year in 2024, respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory compared to industry averages [5][10] - The net interest margin is expected to remain above industry levels, with a forecasted margin of 2.71% for 2024, reflecting effective cost management and a favorable asset mix [11][12] 4. Asset Quality and Risk Management - Changshu Bank maintains a strong asset quality profile, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.77% as of Q4 2024, which is among the lowest in the industry [14][13] - The bank has been proactive in managing its asset quality, with a high provision coverage ratio of 501%, ensuring robust risk mitigation [14][13] 5. Financial Projections - The bank's net profit is expected to reach CNY 4.28 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.22%, continuing a trend of strong profitability [15][16] - Key financial metrics such as return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) are projected to remain stable, supporting the bank's overall financial health [17][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the banking industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [21]. Core Insights - The report highlights a marginal improvement in performance growth, with core revenue contributions increasing. As of April 12, 2024, 25 out of 42 listed banks reported a year-on-year revenue growth of -0.4% and a net profit growth of 2.0%, both showing a 1 percentage point improvement compared to the previous three quarters [5][6]. - The report anticipates that the banking sector will benefit from strong fiscal policies implemented since October 2024, which are expected to boost economic confidence and stabilize asset quality. If these policies effectively stimulate the real estate and consumer sectors, there will be opportunities for cyclical strategies [5][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The banking sector consists of 42 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 114,992 billion and a circulating market value of about 78,974 billion [2]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance of the banking sector over the past month is 5.0%, 17.3% over six months, and 17.7% over twelve months. The relative performance is 2.8%, 15.6%, and 24.4% respectively [3]. Market Review - For the week of April 7-13, 2025, the major indices saw declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.11% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 6.73%. The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was 10,349 billion, up 41.54% from the previous week [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on banks with high dividend yields and strong asset quality, such as state-owned banks and regional banks with high provision coverage ratios. It also recommends banks with a high proportion of retail assets, which are expected to show greater resilience in the economic recovery [5][6]. Specific banks highlighted include: - Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and China Merchants Bank, all rated as "Recommended" with projected EPS growth for 2025 [6].

证券代码：601128 证券简称：常熟银行 公告编号：2025-015 江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司 关于召开 2024 年度业绩说明会的公告 江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司（以下简称"本行"）董事会及全体董 事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： 投资者可于 2025 年 04 月 12 日(星期六)至 04 月 17 日(星期四)16:00 前登录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏目或通过本行投资者关系邮 箱：601128@csrcbank.com 进行提问。本行将在 2024 年度业绩说明会（以下简 称"业绩说明会"）上对投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 本行已于 2025 年 03 月 28 日在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）披 露 2024 年年度报告，为便于广大投资者更全面深入地了解本行 2024 年度经营成 果、财务状况，本行计划于 2025 年 04 月 18 日(星期五)下午 15:00-16:00 召开 2024 年度业绩说明会，就投资者关心的问题进行交流。 一、业绩 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights strong control over liability costs and prudent asset quality management by the company [1] - The company reported a revenue of 10.909 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.813 billion yuan, up 16.20% year-on-year [2] - As of the end of Q4 2024, the total asset size reached 366.582 billion yuan, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.77%, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter [2][3] - The report indicates a significant increase in the company's efforts to write off non-performing loans, with 1.740 billion yuan written off in the second half of 2024 compared to 968 million yuan in the same period of 2023 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a net interest margin (NIM) of 2.71% for the year, a decrease of 15 basis points year-on-year [2] - The NPL coverage ratio stood at 500.51%, down 27.89 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][7] - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11.585 billion yuan, 12.609 billion yuan, and 13.857 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.320 billion yuan, 4.782 billion yuan, and 5.268 billion yuan [7][8] Asset Quality - The overall asset quality remains stable, with the NPL ratio at 0.77% as of Q4 2024, and the report notes a marginal improvement in forward-looking indicators, signaling a slowdown in risk [3][4] - The report emphasizes the company's proactive approach in managing asset quality, particularly in the retail loan segment, where the NPL ratio has shown signs of pressure due to macroeconomic conditions [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company is expected to benefit from a broad market space in the small and micro retail sector, leveraging its regional advantages and a combination of technology and support services [7] - The report suggests that the company's high proportion of regular deposits and strong cost control measures will allow it to better navigate the current market environment [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights strong control over liability costs and prudent asset quality management by the company [1] - The company reported a revenue of 10.909 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.813 billion yuan, up 16.20% year-on-year [2] - As of the end of Q4 2024, the total asset size was 366.582 billion yuan, an increase of 9.61% year-on-year, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.77%, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter [2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Asset Quality - The overall asset quality remains stable, with the NPL ratio at 0.77% as of Q4 2024, unchanged from Q3 2024. Retail and corporate loan NPL ratios were 0.94% and 0.65%, respectively [3] - The report indicates that the company has increased its efforts in non-performing loan recovery and write-offs, with 1.740 billion yuan of non-performing loans written off in the second half of 2024, compared to 0.968 billion yuan in the same period of 2023 [4] Loan and Deposit Growth - Individual loan growth has been weak, consistent with industry trends, while deposit growth remains strong. The company’s deposit absorption continued to grow at a faster pace than the M2 growth rate [6] - The report notes that the company has adjusted its lending strategy to be more cautious in the face of rising retail loan risks, particularly in personal loans and credit cards [6] Interest Margin and Profitability - The net interest margin (NIM) has continued to narrow, with a quarterly NIM of 2.59% in Q4 2024, down from 2.67% in Q3 2024. The company has taken steps to manage deposit costs, including lowering deposit rates [6][7] - Investment income has performed well, driven by a bond bull market, with Q4 investment income and fair value changes amounting to 0.407 billion yuan, significantly higher than 0.149 billion yuan in the same period last year [6] Future Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 11.585 billion yuan in 2025, 12.609 billion yuan in 2026, and 13.857 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 4.320 billion yuan, 4.782 billion yuan, and 5.268 billion yuan [8] - The report anticipates a stable performance due to a solid provisioning base and the potential for continued growth in the small and micro retail market [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant increase in cash dividends among listed banks in 2024, with state-owned banks leading in both total dividend amounts and payout ratios, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [2][7]. Summary by Sections Dividend Distribution Overview - As of April 8, 2024, 23 A-share listed banks have disclosed their annual reports, collectively distributing cash dividends of 56.8862 billion yuan, an increase of over 10.1887 billion yuan year-on-year [2][3]. - The six major state-owned banks are identified as the primary contributors, proposing a total cash dividend exceeding 420 billion yuan, with payout ratios consistently above 30% [7][8]. Individual Bank Performance - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) leads with a cash dividend of 109.773 billion yuan, followed by China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China with 100.754 billion yuan and 84.661 billion yuan respectively [3][8]. - Among joint-stock banks, China Merchants Bank stands out with a dividend payout ratio of 35.32%, distributing over 50 billion yuan [4][9]. Trends in Dividend Frequency and Ratios - The article notes a shift in dividend frequency for state-owned banks to twice a year, enhancing their attractiveness to investors [8][9]. - In contrast, city commercial banks and rural commercial banks generally exhibit lower dividend scales and ratios, with Zhengzhou Bank having the lowest payout ratio at 9.69% [5][9]. Market Valuation and Investor Sentiment - The banking sector is currently experiencing a comprehensive decline in valuation, with an overall price-to-book (PB) ratio below 1, indicating a potential undervaluation of bank stocks [5][17]. - Over 20 banks have announced valuation enhancement plans in response to prolonged low valuations, aiming to improve investor returns and confidence [16][19]. Regulatory and Strategic Considerations - Regulatory bodies have been encouraging listed companies to increase dividend distributions, which has influenced the banks' decisions to enhance their payout strategies [7][12]. - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between dividend payouts and capital retention for risk management and growth [10][19].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the dividends are stable and sustainable, driven by steady growth and cyclical trends [6] - The banking sector is expected to show stable performance in Q1 2025, continuing the revenue and net profit growth momentum from Q4 2024 [6] - The report highlights the importance of government bond issuance and its impact on social financing, predicting an increase in social financing in March 2025 [4] Summary by Sections Credit Forecast - In March, new RMB loans are expected to increase by approximately 3.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.2% [3] - Corporate loans are projected to contribute about 2.3 trillion yuan, supported by sufficient project reserves and government bond issuance [3] - Retail loans are expected to add around 900 billion yuan, primarily driven by mortgage demand [3] Social Financing Prediction - Social financing is anticipated to increase by about 5 trillion yuan in March, with a stock growth rate of 8.2% [4] - The acceleration of government bond issuance is expected to significantly support social financing [4] Monetary Supply Prediction - M2 is projected to grow by 7.1% year-on-year in March, with a slight increase in the month-on-month growth rate [5] - The report attributes the expected rise in monetary growth to increased fiscal spending and improved corporate liquidity [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining a focus on dividend strategies, particularly in state-owned banks, which are expected to benefit from stable dividends and valuation recovery [6] - Specific stock recommendations include CITIC Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and China Merchants Bank, with a cyclical logic favoring Suzhou Bank and its peers [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share listed banks are experiencing significant changes in their business structures, particularly in the consumer loan sector, amidst a challenging macroeconomic environment and tightening interest margins [1][2]. Group 1: Consumer Loan Growth - The total consumer loan balance has surged by nearly 750 billion yuan, with most banks reporting substantial increases in their consumer loan portfolios [3][5]. - Among 23 listed banks, only six reported a decrease in consumer loan balances for 2024, with Ping An Bank seeing the largest reduction of 70.63 billion yuan [5]. - Major banks like Postal Savings Bank, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China have reported double-digit growth in consumer loans, with increases of 17.88%, 26.21%, and 38.03% respectively [6][7]. Group 2: Risk Management Concerns - Industry insiders express concerns about rising non-performing loans (NPLs) in the consumer loan sector, indicating that banks must tighten risk controls as economic cycles fluctuate [2][12]. - Several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China, have reported increases in their consumer loan NPL ratios, highlighting the need for enhanced risk management strategies [12][13]. - The rapid growth of consumer loans has raised alarms about potential risks, with banks emphasizing the importance of maintaining asset quality and effective post-loan management [12][14]. Group 3: Regulatory Changes and Market Dynamics - In March, regulatory changes extended the repayment period for consumer loans from five to seven years and increased the maximum loan amount, aiming to support consumer spending [10]. - Following these changes, banks quickly halted low-interest consumer loans to prevent a price war that could lead to increased risks [12]. - The competitive landscape for consumer loans is shifting, with banks focusing on the relatively lower costs and stable returns associated with consumer lending compared to corporate lending [9].

Core Viewpoint - Changshu Bank's 2024 financial performance shows strong growth in revenue and net profit, with a stable asset quality and a favorable net interest margin, leading to a "buy" rating for the company [2][5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Changshu Bank achieved a revenue of 10.909 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.813 billion yuan, up 16.20% year-on-year [2]. - The return on equity (ROE) reached 14.15%, and the net interest margin stood at 2.71%, maintaining a good level within the industry [2][5]. - The revenue growth rate in Q4 2024 increased by 0.84 percentage points to 10.75% compared to Q1-Q3, while the net profit growth rate slightly decreased by 0.08 percentage points to 16.18% [2]. Asset Quality and Growth - As of the end of Q4 2024, total assets reached 366.582 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.61%, although the growth rate decreased by 0.83 percentage points compared to Q3 [3]. - Total deposits grew by 15.57% year-on-year, while total loans increased by 8.28%, with a notable rise in the number of small and micro loans [3]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was 0.77%, stable compared to Q3, with corporate loans showing an NPL ratio of just 0.65% [4]. Future Outlook - The bank's asset quality remains strong, with a provision coverage ratio of 500.51%, despite a year-on-year decrease of 37.37 percentage points [4]. - The bank's strategy of focusing on small and scattered loans continues to deepen, with a 10.28% year-on-year increase in the number of loans under 10 million yuan [3]. - Future revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 11.578 billion yuan, 13.078 billion yuan, and 14.842 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 6.13%, 12.96%, and 13.49% [5].

Group 1 - The retail non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 23 listed banks continues to rise, with a slight decrease in overall NPL ratio to 1.25% as of Q4 2024, down 2bps from Q4 2023. However, retail loan NPL ratios have generally increased, with state-owned banks seeing an average rise of 29bps compared to Q4 2023 [1][2][3] - The average retail credit cost for listed banks in 2024 is 1.24%, a decrease of 3bps year-on-year. State-owned banks have a lower average retail credit cost of 0.99%, attributed to a higher proportion of lower-risk personal housing loans [2][3] - Looking ahead, banks are expected to manage retail loan risks by tightening customer eligibility and employing various asset disposal strategies, with the impact on asset quality being relatively controllable [4] Group 2 - The report highlights that the retail loan structure of banks has shifted, with personal housing loans making up an average of 60.9% of the total retail loans for state-owned banks, which is 17.6 percentage points higher than the sample average [2][16] - Specific banks such as Ping An Bank and Everbright Bank have seen a decrease in retail credit costs, with Ping An Bank's credit cost dropping by 34bps year-on-year, largely due to a reduction in credit card NPLs [3][4] - The report suggests that banks like Postal Savings Bank have improved their asset quality, with a notable decrease in consumer loan NPLs by 12.2 billion yuan, resulting in a NPL ratio decline of 47bps to 1.34% [4][8]