——西部矿业（601168.SH）2024 年年报点评 要点 2025 年 4 月 15 日 公司研究 冶炼业务拖累 Q4 业绩，玉龙铜矿扩产可期 | 指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 42,748 | 50,026 | 62,006 | 63,980 | 64,998 | | 营业收入增长率 | 7.51% | 17.02% | 23.95% | 3.18% | 1.59% | | 净利润（百万元） | 2,789 | 2,932 | 3,980 | 4,603 | 4,911 | | 净利润增长率 | -19.06% | 5.10% | 35.75% | 15.66% | 6.70% | | EPS（元） | 1.17 | 1.23 | 1.67 | 1.93 | 2.06 | | ROE（归属母公司)（摊薄） | 18.27% | 17.15% | 21.30% | 23.05% | 23.35% | | P/E | 12.9 | 12.3 | 9. ...

Summary of Western Mining Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Western Mining - **Fiscal Year**: 2024 - **Revenue**: 50 billion CNY, a 17% increase year-on-year, marking the first time revenue surpassed 50 billion CNY [3][5] - **Total Profit**: 5.992 billion CNY, a 27% increase year-on-year [3] - **Net Profit**: 5.294 billion CNY, a 5% increase year-on-year [3] - **Earnings Per Share**: 1.23 CNY [3] - **Return on Equity**: 18.23% [3] Production Data - **Copper Production**: Planned 158,700 tons, actual 177,500 tons [3] - **Zinc Production**: Actual 107,000 tons, in line with plans [3] - **Lead Production**: Slightly above plan at 53,900 tons [4] - **Molybdenum Production**: Slightly above plan at 4,009 tons [4] - **Iron Concentrate Production**: Slightly below plan at 1.37 million tons [4] 2025 Financial and Production Goals - **Revenue Target**: 55 billion CNY [5] - **Total Profit Target**: 5 billion CNY [5] - **Copper Production Target**: 168,000 tons [5] - **Zinc Production Target**: 126,000 tons [5] - **Lead Production Target**: 65,700 tons [5] - **Molybdenum Production Target**: 4,005 tons [5] - **Iron Concentrate Production Target**: 1.45 million tons [5] Challenges and Risks - **Fourth Quarter Profit Decline**: Due to impairment losses on fixed and intangible assets and inventory write-downs totaling approximately 440 million CNY [3][7] - **Market Impact on Smelting**: Significant losses in the smelting sector due to market conditions, with Qinghai Copper experiencing a loss of 560 million CNY [3][19] - **Conservative Forecasting**: 2025 production targets are based on previous year's performance, aiming for stable operations amidst market uncertainties [8] Expansion Plans - **Yulong Copper Mine Expansion**: Expected production of 159,000 tons in 2025, with a capital expenditure of 4.6 to 5 billion CNY [3][15] - **Focus on Social Responsibility**: Expansion driven by local employment needs and government requirements [19] - **Future Production Capacity**: Potential to reach 180,000 to 200,000 tons post-expansion [13] Strategic Initiatives - **Cost Management**: Plans to reduce costs through procurement adjustments and operational efficiencies [19][20] - **R&D Investment**: Increased focus on innovation and product development to enhance competitiveness [20] - **Environmental Compliance**: Commitment to sustainable practices and adherence to national environmental standards [20] Market Dynamics - **Pricing Mechanism with Zijin Mining**: Adjustments in pricing based on market conditions and long-term partnerships [21] - **Raw Material Procurement**: Significant reliance on external suppliers for anodes, impacting overall production costs [22] Financial Management - **High Dividend Payout**: Reflects strong cash flow, with 8.4 billion CNY in cash inflow for 2024 [31] - **Shareholder Engagement**: Ongoing efforts to manage market value and maintain shareholder interests [29] Key Projects and Developments - **Double Benefit Project**: Expected completion by October 2025 [32] - **Environmental Upgrades**: Completed upgrades to enhance operational efficiency and sustainability [33] - **Upcoming Financial Promotion Event**: Scheduled for April 29, aimed at increasing investor engagement [34]

本报告期西部矿业的盈利能力有所提升，毛利率为19.9%，同比增幅为10.33%；净利率为10.58%，同比增幅为6.86%。这表明公司在控制成本和提 高产品附加值方面取得了进展。 现金流与债务状况 尽管公司经营性现金流表现良好，每股经营性现金流为3.46元，同比增32.17%，但货币资金为41.16亿元，较去年同期的54.36亿元减少了24.28%。 此外，公司的有息负债为220.18亿元，虽然较去年同期的226.79亿元减少了2.92%，但有息资产负债率仍高达41.67%，需关注其债务偿还压力。 成本控制与费用管理 近期西部矿业（601168）发布2024年年报，证券之星财报模型分析如下： 经营概况 西部矿业发布的2024年年报显示，公司在报告期内实现了良好的经营业绩。截至本报告期末，公司营业总收入为500.26亿元，同比上升17.02%； 归母净利润为29.32亿元，同比上升5.1%；扣非净利润为29.47亿元，同比上升15.3%。按单季度数据看，第四季度营业总收入为133.0亿元，同比上 升26.49%，但归母净利润为1.99亿元，同比下降66.33%。 盈利能力 公司在成本控制方面表现出色，三费(销售 ...

Group 1 - The metal lead concept increased by 3.32%, ranking 10th among concept sectors, with 28 stocks rising, including Huayu Mining, Huaxi Nonferrous, and ST Shengtun hitting the daily limit [1] - Notable gainers in the lead sector included Chifeng Gold, Hunan Silver, and Luoping Zinc Electric, which rose by 7.35%, 7.30%, and 5.26% respectively [1] - The leading decliners were Wolong Real Estate and Western Mining, which fell by 1.04% and 0.92% respectively [1] Group 2 - The lead concept sector saw a net inflow of 1.179 billion yuan, with 20 stocks receiving net inflows, and 6 stocks attracting over 50 million yuan [2] - Zijin Mining led the net inflow with 322 million yuan, followed by Chifeng Gold, Huayu Mining, and Western Mining with net inflows of 188 million yuan, 150 million yuan, and 144 million yuan respectively [2] - The top stocks by net inflow ratio included Huaxi Nonferrous, ST Shengtun, and Sierte, with net inflow ratios of 22.04%, 19.77%, and 13.42% respectively [3] Group 3 - The trading performance of key stocks in the lead sector showed significant activity, with Huaxi Nonferrous and ST Shengtun achieving notable trading volumes and net inflow ratios [3][4] - Chifeng Gold and Hunan Silver also demonstrated strong trading performance with respective trading volumes of 187.92 million yuan and 4005.81 million yuan [4] - The overall market sentiment in the lead sector appears positive, as indicated by the substantial net inflows and rising stock prices [2][3]

Core Insights - Western Mining achieved a remarkable performance in 2024 with a revenue exceeding 50 billion yuan for the first time, marking a year-on-year growth of 17.02% [1][2] - The total profit reached 5.992 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27%, while the dividend payout ratio reached 81%, exceeding market expectations [1][2] - The company has improved its ESG ratings to AA level, demonstrating its commitment to sustainable development and social responsibility [1][4] Financial Performance - In 2024, Western Mining reported a total revenue of 50.026 billion yuan, a 17.02% increase year-on-year, and a total profit of 5.992 billion yuan, up 27% [2] - The net profit for the year was 5.294 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 25%, while the attributable net profit was 2.932 billion yuan, reflecting a 5% increase [2] - The company’s advance payments at the end of 2024 reached 612 million yuan, a significant increase of 170.40% compared to the previous year [2] Production and Sales Growth - The growth in performance was driven by a significant increase in copper and molybdenum production, with copper output reaching 177,500 tons, a 35% increase year-on-year [2] - The Yulong Copper Mine contributed 159,100 tons of copper, marking a 39.10% increase, while molybdenum production reached 4,009 tons, up 18% [2] - Iron concentrate production also increased to 1.3769 million tons, a 15% rise, and silver concentrate production reached 130.83 tons, a 6% increase [2] ESG Initiatives - Western Mining has been publishing ESG reports for 14 consecutive years, highlighting its commitment to sustainable development and governance [4] - The company’s ESG ratings have improved, achieving AA and A levels in various ESG rating systems, placing it among the leaders in the industrial metals sector [4] - In 2024, the company invested 650 million yuan in environmental protection, establishing new green mines and factories, and planting over 458,100 trees [4] Environmental Performance - The company reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 4.21% in 2024 and decreased energy consumption intensity by 28.22% [5] - Water consumption intensity was reduced by 6.45%, with 100% of wastewater from smelting units being recycled [5] Social Responsibility - Western Mining increased its safety training sessions by 228.46% in 2024 and eliminated over 14,000 safety hazards [6] - The workforce grew by 11.4%, and employee training hours increased significantly, reflecting the company’s commitment to employee development [6] - The company invested 6.07 million yuan in rural revitalization, benefiting over 10,200 people [6] Governance Structure - The board of directors has a diverse composition, with three independent directors, ensuring independent decision-making [7] - The company has established compliance committees across its subsidiaries to enhance governance and compliance management [7] - In 2024, the company engaged in 122 institutional research sessions, maintaining a 100% response rate to investor inquiries [7]

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月14日 玉龙铜矿：玉龙铜业 2024 年净利润 54.1 亿元，归母利润 31.4 亿元，是 公司盈利的主要来源。2024 年玉龙铜矿生产铜 15.91 万吨，同比增加 4.5 万吨；副产钼 4009 吨，同比增加 608 吨。如果只考虑铜，粗略测算 玉龙铜矿吨铜净利润达到 3.4 万元。玉龙铜矿正在开展 3000 万吨扩能 项目前期手续办理工作，简单测算玉龙铜矿未来年产铜将超过 21 万吨。 风险提示：产能释放低于预期，金属价格下跌风险。 投资建议：维持"优于大市"评级 参照年初以来主要有色金属价格走势，假定 2025-2027 年国内阴极铜现 货年均价均为 75000 元/吨，锌锭现货年均价均为 23400 元/吨，铅锭现 货均价为 17000 元/吨，铅精矿加工费 1000 元/吨，锌精矿加工费 4000 元/吨，铜精矿计价系数 96%。预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 38.98/45.89/52.87 亿元,同比增速 33.0/17.7/15.2%；摊薄 EPS 分别为 1.64/1.93/2.22 元，当前股价对应 PE 分别为 9.3/7.9/6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper industry is performing well, with Western Mining (601168.SH) achieving record revenue in 2024, driven by rising non-ferrous metal prices and increased copper production and sales [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Western Mining reported total revenue of 50.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a net profit of 2.932 billion yuan, up 5% from the previous year [1][2]. - The company's revenue and net profit have shown a consistent upward trend since 2019, with revenues of 30.57 billion yuan in 2019, 28.67 billion yuan in 2020, 38.50 billion yuan in 2021, 40.24 billion yuan in 2022, and 42.75 billion yuan in 2023 [2]. Copper Price and Production - The average copper price in 2024 reached 74,932 yuan per ton, a 9.7% increase year-on-year, contributing significantly to the company's revenue growth [2][3]. - Western Mining's copper production increased by 35% in 2024, totaling 177,543 tons, with its subsidiary Yulong Copper producing 159,084 tons, a 39.1% increase [4]. Dividend Distribution - Western Mining announced a profit distribution plan for 2024, proposing a cash dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 2.383 billion yuan, which represents 81% of the distributable profits [5][6]. Shareholder Activity - The controlling shareholder, Xikang Group, has increased its stake in Western Mining, acquiring an additional 41.202 million shares, raising its total ownership from 30.18% to 31.89% [7].

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, Western Mining achieved significant financial milestones, including a record revenue of 50.026 billion yuan, driven by rising non-ferrous metal prices and increased copper production [1][2][3] Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 50.026 billion yuan, marking a 17% year-on-year increase [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.932 billion yuan, reflecting a 5% growth [1][2] - Operating cash flow increased by 32% to 8.246 billion yuan [1][2] - The total profit amounted to 5.992 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year [2] - The weighted average return on equity was 18.23%, an increase of 0.51 percentage points [2] Production Achievements - Copper production reached 177,543 tons, a 35% increase year-on-year, with Yulong Copper producing 159,084 tons, up 39.1% [3] - Molybdenum production grew by 18%, iron concentrate by 15%, and silver concentrate by 6% [3] - The company optimized its smelting operations, achieving a total copper smelting output of 263,771 tons [3] Dividend Policy - Western Mining announced a dividend plan to distribute 2.383 billion yuan, representing 81% of the distributable profits [4] - The dividend per share is set at 10 yuan, resulting in a dividend yield of 6.5%, the highest in the non-ferrous metal industry [4] - Since its listing, the company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, distributing over 10.7 billion yuan from 2007 to 2024, accounting for over 60% of cumulative net profits [4] Shareholder Confidence - The controlling shareholder has consistently increased their stake, with a total of 62.0448 million shares acquired from 2023 to 2025, valued at over 900 million yuan [6] - A recent announcement indicated plans to further increase holdings by 0.15% to 0.222% of total shares, signaling confidence in the company's long-term prospects [6] Future Outlook - For 2025, the company plans to produce 168,208 tons of copper, 124,581 tons of zinc, and 65,672 tons of lead, among other products [6] - The revenue target for 2025 is set at 55 billion yuan, with a profit goal of 5 billion yuan [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Copper prices rebounded after a significant drop, with attention on the ongoing US-China trade dynamics and recession expectations in the US. The weekly performance showed US copper up 3.75%, London copper up 2.97%, and Shanghai copper down 4.6%. The decline in copper prices led to increased downstream activity and accelerated inventory depletion, with copper rod operating rates at 74.76%, up 0.21 percentage points week-on-week. Social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased by 14.80% to 267,200 tons, while Shanghai copper inventory fell by 18.96% to 182,900 tons. Short-term price rebounds may be limited by US recession expectations, with key focus areas being US-China trade developments, US economic and inflation data, and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4] - Aluminum prices fell due to tariff impacts, with signs of weakening demand in the peak season and continued inventory depletion. The alumina market remains oversupplied, with prices dropping 5.12% to 2,870 RMB/ton. The operating capacity of alumina plants decreased by 1.91 million tons to 84.82 million tons/year. Electrolytic aluminum prices fell 3.72% to 19,675 RMB/ton, with profit margins down 15.54% to 3,650 RMB/ton. Overall, the supply side of electrolytic aluminum shows no increase in capacity, leading to a potential shortage this year, which could drive aluminum prices up significantly. Recommended stocks include Hongchuang Holdings, Yun Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., and China Aluminum [4] - Lithium prices continued to decline, with carbonate lithium down 3.11% to 71,600 RMB/ton. The supply side remains oversupplied, with inventory increasing by 1.3% to 131,000 tons. Demand growth is hindered by tariff impacts on downstream exports, with expectations for a narrowing of the oversupply throughout the year. Recommended stocks include Yahua Group, Zhongjin Lingnan, Yongxing Materials, and Ganfeng Lithium [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The US March CPI was lower than expected at 2.4%, with initial jobless claims matching expectations at 223,000 [8] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1. Copper - London copper rose 2.97%, while Shanghai copper fell 4.60%. Inventory levels decreased significantly, with Shanghai copper inventory down 18.96% [21][24] 2.2. Aluminum - London aluminum increased by 0.50%, while Shanghai aluminum decreased by 3.72%. The operating profit for aluminum companies fell by 15.54% [33] 2.3. Lead and Zinc - London lead prices fell 0.57%, while Shanghai lead prices decreased by 2.44%. London zinc prices rose 0.34%, but Shanghai zinc prices fell 2.36% [48] 2.4. Tin and Nickel - London tin prices dropped 12.17%, and Shanghai tin prices fell 13.22%. Nickel prices also saw a decline [61] 3. Energy Metals 3.1. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices fell 3.11% to 71,600 RMB/ton, with continued oversupply in the market [77] 3.2. Cobalt - Overseas MB cobalt prices increased by 0.16% to 15.88 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices fell [88]

西部矿业（601168.SH）2024 年年报点评 冶炼拖累 Q4 业绩，期待玉龙扩产 2025 年 04 月 12 日 ➢ 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年公司营收 500.26 亿元，同比 +17.02%，归母净利 29.32 亿元，同比+5.10%。其中，2024Q4 公司营收 133.0 亿元，同比+26.49%，环比+13.21%；季度归母净利 1.99 亿元，同比-66.33%， 环比-82.09%，Q4 业绩低于我们预期，业绩低于预期主要是冶炼亏损和资产减 值所致。公司全年计划派息 23.83 亿元，分红比例为达到 81%，股息率为 6.5%， 分红超预期。 ➢ 2024 年公司归母净利润同比增加 1.42 亿元，其中毛利增利 22.45 亿元， 但费用&税金减利 3.09 亿元，其他/投资收益减利 4.43 亿元，减值损失减利 5.36 亿元，少数股东损益减利 9.18 亿元。①毛利增加主要是铜产量全年同比大幅提 升及商品价格上升。②减值损失主要是本年度发生固定资产和无形资产减值损 失。③少数股东损益主要是玉龙铜矿利润大幅上涨致少数股东享有权益增加。 ➢ 2024 年玉龙铜矿产量 ...