证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 01 25 年 月 日 煤炭开采 BTU 续创新高，海外"三小煤"需重点关注 行情回顾（2026.1.19~2026.1.23）： 中信煤炭指数 3743.77 点，上涨 1.44%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.06pct，位列中信 板块涨跌幅榜第 21 位。 本周，美股 BTU 一度涨至 39.95 美元/股，续创 2019 年以来新高。在 25 年 12 月初我们发布的《美国：AI 重塑美国煤炭市场，底部反转，黑金重燃》中指出"重 视 AI 重塑美国煤炭市场，底部反转的投资机会"。 印尼煤炭"供给侧"或正在实施中。据新华财经雅加达 1 月 23 日报道，印度尼西 亚总统普拉博沃·苏比延多 22 日在瑞士达沃斯出席世界经济论坛年会期间表示， 印尼政府已关闭全国约 1000 处非法矿场，并将继续严厉打击自然资源和环境领域 的违法行为，坚决维护法治。据了解，非法采矿活动往往无视安全和环保标准，易 引发洪水和山体滑坡等自然灾害。印尼国家灾害管理署数据显示，去年底苏门答 腊岛发生的洪水和山体滑坡已造成约 1200 人死亡，还有大量居民被迫撤离并安置 在 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies in the coal mining sector, including China Coal Energy (H+A), Yanzhou Coal Mining (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant increase in U.S. natural gas futures prices due to a polar cold wave and short covering, with prices rising by 25% to $4.875 per million British thermal units, marking the highest settlement price since December 8 [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for coal consumption to increase as power producers may switch to coal to control fuel costs amid rising natural gas prices [3][8]. Summary by Sections Energy Price Overview - As of January 23, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $65.88 per barrel, up $1.75 (+2.73%) from the previous week, while WTI crude oil futures settled at $61.07 per barrel, up $1.63 (+2.74%) [1]. - Natural gas prices also saw significant increases, with Northeast Asia LNG spot prices at $11.81 per million British thermal units (+4.04%) and U.S. HH natural gas futures at $5.35 per million British thermal units (+72.18%) [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report specifically recommends focusing on companies that are performing well, such as China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Shenhua Energy, and Shaanxi Coal, as well as companies involved in smart mining like Keda Control and those in recovery like China Qinfa [3][8]. - Additional companies to watch include Peabody (BTU), Jinkong Coal Industry, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and others that may see growth in the future [3]. Coal Market Dynamics - The report notes slight adjustments in coal prices, with Newcastle coal at $111.50 per ton, down $0.05 (-0.04%), while European ARA coal prices increased to $98.50 per ton, up $1.85 (+1.91%) [1][40]. - The overall coal market is expected to benefit from the rising natural gas prices, potentially leading to increased coal consumption in power generation [3].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies in the coal mining sector, including China Coal Energy (H+A), Yanzhou Coal Mining (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant increase in U.S. natural gas futures prices due to a polar cold wave and short covering, with prices rising by 25% to $4.875 per million British thermal units, marking the highest settlement price since December 8 [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for coal consumption to increase as power producers may switch to coal to control fuel costs amid rising natural gas prices [8]. - The report notes that the performance of coal mining companies is expected to improve as annual report disclosures approach, following the principle that "strong performance leads to strong stocks" [3]. Summary by Sections Energy Prices Overview - As of January 23, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $65.88 per barrel, up $1.75 (+2.73%) from the previous week, while WTI crude oil futures settled at $61.07 per barrel, up $1.63 (+2.74%) [1]. - Natural gas prices have also seen significant increases, with Northeast Asia LNG spot prices at $11.81 per million British thermal units, up $0.46 (+4.04%) [1]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report specifically recommends focusing on companies such as Keda Control Technology, which is advancing in smart mining, and China Qinfa, which is experiencing a turnaround [3]. - Additional companies to watch include Peabody (BTU), Jinkong Coal Industry, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and others that may see growth in the future [3]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of weather on natural gas production, particularly in the Marcellus shale region, which may face operational challenges due to snow [8]. - It also notes that the U.S. natural gas inventory surplus is rapidly decreasing, with expectations that it will fall below the five-year average by the end of March [8].

重视优质煤化工资产带来的煤炭板块配置机遇 高升：煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 李睿：煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 刘波： 煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 重视优质煤化工资产带来的煤炭板块配置机 遇 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 1 月 25 日 [Table_ReportTime] 2026 年 1 月 25 日 证券研究报告 行业研究-周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 煤炭开采 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Summary] 本期内容提要: ◆ 我们认为，当前正处在煤炭经济新一轮周期上行的初期，基本面、政策 请阅读最 ...

煤炭 业 研 究 2026 年 01 月 24 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《煤价上行回归合理价格，坚定稳煤 价逻辑—行业周报》-2026.1.18 《重视煤价合理才是常态，稳煤价逻 辑依旧—行业周报》-2025.12.21 《煤价合理才是常态，稳煤价逻辑依 旧—行业周报》-2025.12.14 煤价动态波动中寻求合理点位，稳字是核心 ——行业周报 王高展（分析师） 程镱（分析师） wanggaozhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070003 chengyi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525090001 本周要闻回顾：煤价动态波动中寻求合理点位，稳字是核心 动力煤方面：动力煤价格微跌，截至 1 月 24 日，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 685 元/吨，环比下降 10 元/吨，前期已经完成了我们估算的第四目标价格区间，即 800-860 元区间。目前回调至煤电盈利均分的 750 元价格以下，我们预计未来价 格将逐步修复 ...

2026 年 01 月 25 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) [Table_Title] 供需边际改善，煤价具备支撑 ——煤炭开采行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2026/01/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 煤炭开采 | 2.4% | -4.4% | 6.5% | | 沪深 300 | 1.8% | 2.1% | 23.6% | 相关报告 《煤炭开采行业动态研究：2025Q4 煤炭基金重仓 股持仓占比 0.36%，板块景气提升、注重底部配置 价值（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》——2026-01-24 《煤炭开采行业 12 月数据全面解读：生产降、进 口升，火电依旧疲弱（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》— —2026-01-19 《煤炭开采行业周报：寒潮来临叠加节前停产预 期，煤价仍有支撑（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》—— 2026-01-18 《煤炭开采行业周报：钢厂复产叠加冬储补库，焦 煤价格存在支撑（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》—— 2026-01-11 《炭火暖意，天平微倾 ——煤炭行业 2026 年投资 策略（推荐） ...

Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a slight increase in coking coal prices while thermal coal inventories continue to decline, indicating a potential stabilization in prices moving forward [7][85][87]. Market Dynamics - Thermal coal prices have shown a slight decrease, with the CCI5500 thermal coal index reported at 691 RMB/ton, down 11 RMB/ton week-on-week [13][86]. - The production capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is at 89.8%, reflecting a 1.2 percentage point increase week-on-week [23]. - Inventory levels at major ports have decreased, with a reported 6.939 million tons, down 2.4% week-on-week [23][30]. Industry Outlook - The coal industry is expected to see a significant improvement in profitability in 2026, with a projected total profit of 2.97 billion RMB in 2025, down 47% year-on-year [7][87]. - The supply side is anticipated to experience a substantial decrease in growth rates compared to previous years, with coal prices expected to gradually rise [7][87]. - The long-term contracts for coal supply in 2026 are expected to remain stable, with stricter safety regulations likely to limit production [88][89]. Key Companies - Notable companies with stable profit distributions include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated demand recovery and supply constraints [7][87]. - Companies with high elasticity benefiting from improved demand expectations include Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [7][87]. - Long-term growth companies identified include Huayang Co., New Energy, and Baofeng Energy, which are expected to show significant growth potential [7][87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market has recovered, and credit has followed the decline in interest rates. The credit spreads in the 3 - 7Y period have all converged. The yields of various - term credit bonds have also significantly declined, and the credit spreads of different - term and - grade bonds have shown different changes [3][10] - The spreads of urban investment bonds have generally decreased by 2BP, with spreads of different - rated and - level platforms showing varying degrees of decline [4][15][19] - The spreads of real - estate bonds have generally continued to widen, but the spread of Vanke has been significantly compressed. The spreads of other industrial bonds have slightly declined [4][25] - The yields of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds have continued to decline, with the largest decline in spreads in the 3Y period [5][33] - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds have widened, while the excess spreads of urban investment perpetual bonds have shown differentiation [5][36] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market and Credit Spreads Convergence - This week, the bond market recovered, and the interest - rate curve steeply declined. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y CDB bonds decreased by 2BP, 1BP, 2BP, 3BP, and 4BP respectively. The yields of various - term credit bonds also dropped significantly. From the perspective of credit spreads, the 3 - 7Y credit spreads all narrowed [3][10] 3.2 Urban Investment Bond Spreads - The spreads of urban investment bonds decreased by 2BP overall. The credit spreads of external - rated AAA, AA +, and AA platforms all decreased by 2BP compared to last week. By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial, municipal, and district - county platforms decreased by 2BP compared to last week [4][15][19] 3.3 Real - Estate and Other Industrial Bond Spreads - The spreads of real - estate bonds continued to widen overall, but the spread of Vanke was greatly compressed. The spreads of other industrial bonds slightly declined. The spreads of central - state - owned real - estate bonds widened by 4BP, state - owned real - estate bonds by 1BP, private real - estate bonds by 17BP, and mixed - ownership real - estate bonds converged by 103BP [4][25] 3.4 Secondary - Tier and Perpetual Bond Yields and Spreads - This week, the yields of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds continued to decline, with the largest decline in spreads in the 3Y period. The yields of different - grade 1Y secondary - tier capital bonds decreased by 1 - 2BP, and perpetual bonds by 2BP; 3Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 3BP, and perpetual bonds by 4BP; 5Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 2 - 4BP, and perpetual bonds by 1 - 2BP; 10Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 5BP, and perpetual bonds by 4BP [5][33] 3.5 Excess Spreads of Industrial and Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds - This week, the excess spread of 3Y industrial AAA - grade perpetual bonds widened by 0.26BP to 14.67BP, and the 5Y by 0.01BP to 13.21BP. The 3Y urban - investment AAA - grade perpetual - bond excess spread decreased by 0.48BP to 4.03BP, and the 5Y increased by 3.21BP to 13.34BP [5][36] 3.6 Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial - bank secondary - tier spreads, and urban - investment/industrial perpetual - bond credit spreads are based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term note and ChinaBond perpetual - bond data. The historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015. The credit spreads related to urban - investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by the Huafu Securities Research Institute, and the historical quantiles are also since the beginning of 2015 [38][40]

供给收紧叠加补库需求仍存，煤价有望趋稳反弹 glmszqdatemark 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601001 | 晋控煤业 | 14.66 | 1.68 | 1.01 | 1.32 | 9 | 15 | 11 | 推荐 | | 600546 | 山煤国际 | 10.71 | 1.14 | 0.67 | 1.17 | 9 | 16 | 9 | 推荐 | | 601699 | 潞安环能 | 12.95 | 0.82 | 0.74 | 1.01 | 16 | 17 | 13 | 推荐 | | 600348 | 华阳股份 | 9.18 | 0.62 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 15 | 20 | 14 | 推荐 | | 600188 | 兖矿能源 | 13.85 | ...

煤炭/ 煤炭开采 2026 年 01 月 23 日 版》分别 相关研究 #研究报 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 册 分歧了后 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 下半年煤价及行业利润边际改善, 某价筑底、盈利回升可期 煤炭行业 2025 年年报业绩前瞻 本期投资后了 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 手 供给端, 2025 年国内原煤产量小幅增长, 但煤炭进口量下降。据统计局数据, 2025 年 ● 全国原煤产量为 48.32 亿吨，同比增长 1.2%，其中 10、11、12 月单月产量分别为 4.07、4.27、4.37 亿吨，同比增速分别为-2.3%、-0.5%、-1.0%。据海关总署数据, 2025 年累计进口煤 ...