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煤炭行业2025年中报总结及9月月报:煤价、业绩同步探底,改善可期-20250905
Guoxin Securities· 2025-09-05 13:06
Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is experiencing a performance bottoming out, with improvements expected in the future. In Q2 2025, national raw coal production remained high, but commodity coal consumption decreased by 11.8% month-on-month during the off-season, leading to a significant supply-demand imbalance and high social inventory, which pressured coal prices downwards. Except for the coking coal sector, which benefited from the price dual-track system, the performance of coal companies generally faced pressure [2][11] - The supply side is tightening due to rainfall and production checks, with July's production decreasing by 40 million tons month-on-month and 9 million tons year-on-year. The four major producing regions all saw a reduction in output, with Xinjiang experiencing the largest month-on-month decrease [3][30] - Demand improved significantly in July, entering the peak season, with national commodity coal consumption reaching 450 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% and a month-on-month increase of 12.5%. The upcoming non-electric consumption peak season in September and October is expected to support coal demand [4][67] - Inventory levels across various segments have decreased, with port inventories lower than the same period last year, which may provide support for coal prices [5] - Coal prices are expected to rebound due to supply contraction expectations and the upcoming non-electric demand peak season. The price of thermal coal has rebounded close to 100 yuan/ton, and the downside potential is limited [5] Summary by Sections Q2 2025 Performance Summary - The coal industry is at a performance bottom, with improvements anticipated. Q2 2025 saw a high national raw coal output but a significant drop in commodity coal consumption during the off-season, leading to a supply-demand imbalance and falling prices [2][11] Supply - July's coal production decreased significantly due to rainfall and production checks, with a month-on-month reduction of 40 million tons and a year-on-year decrease of 9 million tons. The supply tightening expectations remain [3][30] Demand - July marked the peak demand season, with a notable improvement in coal consumption. National commodity coal consumption reached 450 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% and a month-on-month increase of 12.5%. The upcoming non-electric consumption peak season is expected to sustain coal demand [4][67] Inventory - Inventory levels across various segments have decreased, with port inventories lower than the same period last year, potentially supporting coal prices [5] Price - Coal prices are expected to rebound due to supply contraction expectations and the upcoming non-electric demand peak season. The price of thermal coal has rebounded close to 100 yuan/ton, with limited downside potential [5]
煤炭开采板块9月5日涨0.66%,山西焦煤领涨,主力资金净流入3.47亿元
证券之星消息,9月5日煤炭开采板块较上一交易日上涨0.66%,山西焦煤领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3812.51,上涨1.24%。深证成指报收于12590.56,上涨3.89%。煤炭开采板块个股涨跌见下表: | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601225 陕西煤业 | | 1.69 Z | 16.44% | 7146.60万 | 6.97% | -2.40 Z | -23.41% | | 000983 山西焦煤 | | 9664.20万 | 19.55% | -3037.47万 | -6.14% | -6626.73万 | -13.40% | | 601699 路安环能 | | 5613.94万 | 9.74% | 685.24万 | 1.19% | -6299.17万 | -10.93% | | 601088 中国神华 | | 4082.50万 | 4.22% | 78.08万 | 0.08% | -4 ...
煤炭2025中报总结(一):业绩压力测试结束,反转,不是反弹
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-09-05 08:41
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry moving forward [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the coal industry is experiencing a reversal rather than a rebound, with expectations for profitability to improve as coal prices have likely reached their lowest point [12][10]. - The report highlights that coal prices have begun to stabilize and recover, particularly in the context of both thermal and coking coal [15][19]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - As of September 1, 2025, the spot price for Q5500 thermal coal is reported at 695 CNY/ton, down 73 CNY/ton from the beginning of the year but up 77 CNY/ton from the lowest price in June [19]. - The average spot price for Q5500 thermal coal in Q2 2025 was 642 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 211 CNY/ton (24.7%) and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 91 CNY/ton (12.5%) [19]. - Coking coal prices have also shown resilience, with the price for low-sulfur coking coal reported at 1480 CNY/ton, up 100 CNY/ton from the start of the year [23]. Performance Overview - The report notes that the coal sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with the CSI 300 index rising by 16.37% from April 1 to September 1, 2025, while the coal index only increased by 8.99% [2][29]. - Among 26 sampled coal companies, 19 saw their stock prices rise, while 7 experienced declines during the same period [2]. Fund Holdings - As of Q2 2025, active funds held 0.43% of their portfolios in the coal sector, a slight decrease from Q1, while passive funds held 0.71%, also down from the previous quarter [3][34]. - The combined holding of both active and passive funds in the coal sector is 0.55%, reflecting a decline of 0.06 percentage points from Q1 2025 [3]. Financial Performance - The report indicates that coal companies' profits have been under pressure due to declining coal prices, with a total profit decline of 5.4% to 113.7% among the sampled companies [3][12]. - Notably, companies like Electric Power Energy and Kailuan achieved profit growth despite the overall downward trend in the sector [3]. Operational Insights - Coal companies are focusing on increasing production, improving quality, and reducing costs to mitigate the impact of falling prices [4][12]. - The total coal production for the sampled companies in H1 2025 was 586 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks with strong earnings elasticity such as Lu'an Energy, Yanzhou Coal, and Jinkong Coal, while also highlighting key state-owned enterprises like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy for potential investment [10][11].
煤炭行业2025年半年报总结:上半年业绩承压,下半年回暖可期
Minsheng Securities· 2025-09-05 07:22
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal industry, recommending specific companies based on their performance and market conditions [7][8]. Core Insights - The coal market experienced a decline in prices during the first half of 2025, with an average price of 675.7 CNY/ton for thermal coal, a year-on-year decrease of 22.8% [3][14]. - A rebound in coal prices is anticipated in the second half of 2025 due to increased demand and supply constraints, potentially returning to levels seen in Q3 2024 [4][29]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in production from both domestic and international sources, with a year-on-year decrease in coal production from major exporting countries [18][24]. Market Review - In H1 2025, thermal coal prices continued to decline, with Q2 prices hitting a low of 631.6 CNY/ton, down 25.6% year-on-year [3][14]. - The average price of coking coal also saw a significant drop, with the main coking coal price at 1377.67 CNY/ton, down 38.79% year-on-year [3][14]. Industry Outlook - The report forecasts a price recovery driven by supply reductions and seasonal demand increases, with expectations for prices to return to Q3 2024 levels [4][29]. - Supply-side constraints are expected to persist, with an estimated annual reduction of 230 million tons due to stricter production regulations [24][25]. - Non-electric demand, particularly from the coal chemical sector, is projected to grow, providing additional support for coal prices [29][30]. Fund Holdings - In Q2 2025, most listed companies in the coal sector saw an increase in fund holdings compared to Q1, with notable increases for companies like Huabei Mining and Xinjie Energy [5][34]. Half-Year Report Summary - The coal sector's total revenue in H1 2025 decreased by 18.8% year-on-year, with the thermal coal sub-sector experiencing a 16.6% decline [36][37]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 32% year-on-year, with the coking coal sub-sector facing the steepest decline of 60.1% [38].
陕煤集团70亿元小公募债项目获上交所受理
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-05 06:45
上交所公司债券项目信息平台显示,陕西煤业化工集团有限责任公司70亿元小公募债项目状态更新 为"已受理",受理日期为2025年9月5日。募集说明书申报稿显示,本次债券募集资金扣除发行费用后, 拟用于偿还到期债务本息。 ...
中国煤炭:在结构性低迷中选择-Selective amid a structural downturn
2025-09-04 15:08
September 1, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Coal | Asia Pacific Selective amid a structural downturn China's coal segment remains in structural decline amid the energy transition. Thermal coal faces slight oversupply, while coking coal appears broadly balanced this year. "Anti-involution" looks unlikely but would be an upside catalyst if implemented. Policy context - different from 2015. Today's industry backdrop differs from 2015's supply-side reform. We note fewer loss-makers, greater consolidation, and a higher ...
煤炭中报“寒意浓”!25家煤企利润集体滑坡,头部四企同比少赚100多亿
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-09-04 04:17
华夏时报记者 李佳佳 李未来 北京报道 近期,煤炭行业上市公司中期报告已披露完毕。据Wind数据统计,25家煤炭指数成分股中,23家营收 同比下滑,25家归母净利润全部负增长。其中,中国神华(601088)(601088.SH)、中煤能源 (601898)(601898.SH)、陕西煤业(601225)(601225.SH)、兖矿能源(600188)(600188.SH) 4家头部企业,较2024年上半年合计少赚100多亿元,行业盈利收缩态势显著。 从整体业绩看,25家煤企2025年上半年归母净利润合计554.72亿元。较去年同期的808.11亿元减少近250 亿元,对比2023年中期的1057.54亿元,总额少了近500亿元,两年内利润规模近乎腰斩。 卓创资讯(301299)分析师任慧云向《华夏时报》记者表示,2025年上半年,煤炭价格整体以持续下行 为主,动力煤各主流市场均价重心跌幅多在20%以上,导致多家煤企业绩同比下滑明显。 具体数据显示,2025年上半年,中国神华业绩依旧稳居第一,公司实现营业收入1381.09亿元,同比下 降18.34%;归母净利润246.41亿元,同比下降12.03%。中煤能源排 ...
煤炭中报“寒意浓”!25家上市煤企利润集体滑坡
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-09-04 01:54
近期,煤炭行业上市公司中期报告已披露完毕。据Wind数据统计,25家煤炭指数成分股中,23家营收 同比下滑,25家归母净利润全部负增长。其中,中国神华(601088.SH)、中煤能源(601898.SH)、 陕西煤业(601225.SH)、兖矿能源(600188.SH)4家头部企业,较2024年上半年合计少赚100多亿 元,行业盈利收缩态势显著。 从整体业绩看,25家煤企2025年上半年归母净利润合计554.72亿元。较去年同期的808.11亿元减少近250 亿元,对比2023年中期的1057.54亿元,总额少了近500亿元,两年内利润规模近乎腰斩。 卓创资讯分析师任慧云向记者表示,2025年上半年,煤炭价格整体以持续下行为主,动力煤各主流市场 均价重心跌幅多在20%以上,导致多家煤企业绩同比下滑明显。 业绩集体承压 今年上半年,4家头部煤企业绩集体承压,净利润均呈两位数同比下滑,合计实现归母净利润446.36亿 元,较去年同期的574.16亿元、前年同期的669.03亿元,持续回落。从盈利规模看,2023年四家利润超 百亿元,2024年缩减至中国神华、陕西煤业两家,2025年则仅剩中国神华一家维持百亿规模。 ...
发挥长钱长投优势险资系私募偏好大蓝筹
又一家险资系证券私募正式亮相。平安资管旗下恒毅持盈(深圳)私募基金管理有限公司近日完成登 记,首期基金规模达300亿元。截至目前,险资系证券私募已达7家,试点金额合计2220亿元。 随着上市公司2025年半年报的披露,这些"巨无霸"长线资金的配置路径逐渐清晰——偏爱中国石油、中 国神华、大秦铁路等能源、基建龙头,长期投资、价值投资的标签较为鲜明。 又有险资系证券私募完成登记 近日,又一家险资系证券私募完成私募管理人登记。中国证券投资基金业协会网站信息显示,8月29 日,恒毅持盈(深圳)私募基金管理有限公司完成登记,其注册资本和实缴资本均为3亿元,由平安资 产管理有限责任公司100%持股。 据了解,恒毅持盈将作为基金管理人向平安人寿定向发行契约型私募证券投资基金,首期基金规模为 300亿元。基金将聚焦"长期投资、价值投资"的理念,重点布局符合政策导向和险资配置需要的优质上 市公司。 保险资金长期投资改革首批试点于2023年10月获批。彼时中国人寿和新华保险作为首批试点机构,各出 资250亿元,设立规模500亿元的公司制基金。今年1月,《关于推动中长期资金入市工作的实施方案》 印发,提出抓紧推动第二批保险资金长期 ...
煤炭中报“寒意浓”!25家上市煤企利润集体滑坡,中国神华等头部四企同比少赚100多亿
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-09-03 14:08
近期,煤炭行业上市公司中期报告已披露完毕。据Wind数据统计,25家煤炭指数成分股中,23家营收 同比下滑,25家归母净利润全部负增长。其中,中国神华(601088.SH)、中煤能源(601898.SH)、 陕西煤业(601225.SH)、兖矿能源(600188.SH)4家头部企业,较2024年上半年合计少赚100多亿 元,行业盈利收缩态势显著。 从整体业绩看,25家煤企2025年上半年归母净利润合计554.72亿元。较去年同期的808.11亿元减少近250 亿元,对比2023年中期的1057.54亿元,总额少了近500亿元,两年内利润规模近乎腰斩。 卓创资讯分析师任慧云向《华夏时报》记者表示,2025年上半年,煤炭价格整体以持续下行为主,动力 煤各主流市场均价重心跌幅多在20%以上,导致多家煤企业绩同比下滑明显。 业绩集体承压 今年上半年,4家头部煤企业绩集体承压,净利润均呈两位数同比下滑,合计实现归母净利润446.36亿 元,较去年同期的574.16亿元、前年同期的669.03亿元,持续回落。从盈利规模看,2023年四家利润超 百亿元,2024年缩减至中国神华、陕西煤业两家,2025年则仅剩中国神华一家维 ...