Summary of Conference Call on 2026 Electric Coal Long-term Contracts Industry Overview - The conference focuses on the electric coal industry, specifically the long-term contract policies for electric coal in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions of China [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Mechanism Adjustments**: The 2026 electric coal long-term contract price mechanism allows enterprises to negotiate monthly prices based on market indices, with a price range set between 320 to 520 RMB/ton for the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions [2][3]. 2. **Demand Forecast**: It is anticipated that electric coal demand will decline slightly in 2026 due to the impact of renewable energy, leading to reduced operating hours for thermal power generation [1][6]. 3. **Supply Chain Stability**: Coal mines benefiting from supply guarantee policies must fully sign contracts for increased production capacity. Mines that fail to complete the necessary procedures by the end of 2025 will revert to original capacity, affecting contract fulfillment and supply chain stability [1][5]. 4. **Third-party Participation Restrictions**: Shaanxi province does not support third-party companies in electric coal transactions, requiring all contracts to be signed directly between mines to enhance compliance and transaction transparency [1][7]. 5. **Production Capacity Management**: The Shaanxi government plans to manage small and medium-sized coal mines through mergers and upgrades, targeting a production capacity increase to 8 billion tons by 2025 and 8.5 billion tons by 2030 [3][11]. 6. **Impact of Environmental Regulations**: Safety and environmental inspections may hinder the completion of production targets, with Shaanxi likely unable to meet its 8 billion tons target this year [6][12]. 7. **Market Price Trends**: The overall market price for coal is expected to remain stable with limited upward momentum, potentially leading to a downward trend in the coming months [6][20]. 8. **State Control on Overproduction**: The government is strictly controlling overproduction to stabilize market prices, especially in light of recent price declines [12][20]. 9. **Differential Impact on Enterprises**: State-owned enterprises have shown more compliance in completing capacity increase procedures compared to private enterprises, which face challenges in the current market environment [13][16]. 10. **Future Production Outlook**: The Shaanxi government aims for a steady increase in coal production, with a projected annual growth rate of around 2% [11][20]. Additional Important Insights - **Coal Price Adjustments**: There are discussions about adjusting the price range for coal in the three provinces to reflect rising production costs, with suggestions to raise the lower limit by 50 RMB [20][21]. - **Long-term Contract Benefits**: State-owned enterprises are expected to benefit more from long-term contracts compared to private enterprises, especially if coal prices fall below contract prices [16][20]. - **Transition to Renewable Energy**: The dual carbon policy and the shift towards renewable energy sources are expected to gradually reduce coal consumption, although thermal power generation will still play a crucial role [20]. This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the electric coal industry and its future outlook.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the coal industry is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal stocks on dips [12][13] - The report highlights a tight supply situation, with coal prices stabilizing at a new platform, and emphasizes the high profitability, cash flow, and dividend yield of quality coal companies [12][13] - The report suggests that the coal sector is undervalued and has potential for valuation enhancement, with a focus on high dividend yields and cyclical elasticity [12][13] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of November 22, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 827 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous week [28] - The price for thermal coal from Shanxi at the pit head is 780 RMB/ton, up by 15 RMB/ton week-on-week [28] - International thermal coal prices have seen slight increases, with Newcastle thermal coal at 86.5 USD/ton, up by 1.5 USD/ton [28] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 91.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points week-on-week [46] - Daily coal consumption in 17 inland provinces has increased by 14.7 thousand tons/day, a rise of 4.37% week-on-week [12] - The report notes that the daily coal consumption in 8 coastal provinces has also risen by 7.5 thousand tons/day, up by 4.18% week-on-week [12] Coal Inventory Situation - Coal inventories in coastal provinces increased by 25.5 thousand tons week-on-week, while inland provinces saw an increase of 89.1 thousand tons [12] - The report indicates a decrease in available days of coal supply in both coastal and inland regions [12] Company Performance - The report emphasizes the strong performance of companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, which are expected to maintain stable operations and robust earnings [13] - It also highlights companies with higher elasticity such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and others, suggesting they are worth monitoring [13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is expected to maintain a stable and slightly strong price trend due to seasonal demand increases and supply constraints [7][75] - The overall supply and demand for coal remain balanced, with port coal prices holding steady [14][73] - The report highlights the resilience of leading coal companies, which exhibit strong cash flow and profitability characteristics [7][75] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - As of November 21, the price of thermal coal at northern ports is 834 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [14][15] - Production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region increased by 0.14 percentage points to 89.93% as of November 19, indicating stable supply [21][73] - Electricity consumption in October reached 857.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, driven by low base effects and seasonal heating demand [14][73] 2. Coking Coal - The price of main coking coal at the Jing Tang port decreased to 1780 CNY/ton, down 80 CNY/ton week-on-week [39][40] - Coking coal production capacity utilization increased by 0.07 percentage points to 84.3% during the week of November 12-19, indicating a slight recovery in supply [39][74] - The average crossing volume at the Ganqimaodu port remains high, with a seven-day average of 1,339 vehicles [39][74] 3. Coke - The report notes that coking enterprises have completed four rounds of price increases, improving profit margins [52][75] - The production capacity utilization of coking enterprises increased slightly by 0.04 percentage points to 74.21% [52][75] - The average profit per ton of coke increased to approximately 19 CNY/ton, reflecting improved profitability in the sector [56] 4. Anthracite - The price of anthracite coal remains stable, with the small block price at 930 CNY/ton as of November 21 [68][75] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining, all of which are rated as "Buy" [9][75] - The report emphasizes the strong financial health and growth potential of leading coal companies, suggesting a favorable investment environment [7][75]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. (601225) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 118.08 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.81%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 12.71 billion, down 27.22% year-on-year [1] - The report highlights that coal prices are on the rise, supporting profit recovery, and the coal-electricity integration strengthens long-term advantages [1] - The report anticipates that coal prices will continue to rise in the fourth quarter due to increased winter storage demand from downstream power plants and stricter safety inspections affecting coal production [7] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of CNY 40.10 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.91%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.03%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 5.07 billion, down 26.59% year-on-year but up 79.08% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The average selling price of coal for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 540.2 per ton, a decrease of 12.63% year-on-year, while the production and sales volumes were 130.37 million tons and 189.20 million tons, respectively, showing slight year-on-year increases of 2.03% and 0.40% [7] - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 at CNY 17.94 billion, CNY 20.59 billion, and CNY 23.35 billion, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12x, 11x, and 10x [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its coal production capacity, with recent approvals for capacity increases at its coal mines, which will contribute to stable growth in its coal business [7] - The integration of coal and electricity production is expected to improve the company's profitability, creating a complete industrial chain from coal mining to electricity generation [7] - The current dividend yield is approximately 4.8%, based on a 60% payout ratio for 2025 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating a favorable investment rating due to the rising cost structure and expected increase in coal prices [2][6]. Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a structural change with a systematic increase in the cost base, driven by factors such as increased mining depth, stricter environmental compliance, and rising safety investments. This has led to a higher price floor for coal, making it unlikely to return to the low levels seen in 2015 [8][7]. - The report emphasizes that the rising costs are not a temporary phenomenon but are supported by rigid factors such as labor costs, safety investments, and environmental governance, which are expected to persist in the long term [7][8]. - The anticipated tightening of supply due to production constraints and limited new capacity is expected to support a steady increase in coal prices [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Cost Research Framework - The report outlines the components of coal production costs, including direct and indirect costs, with a focus on production costs as the most significant element [16][17]. 2. Thermal Coal: Cost Support and Price Floor - From 2015 to 2024, the average complete cost of thermal coal for sample enterprises increased from 216 CNY/ton to 306 CNY/ton, with a CAGR of 4%. The production cost rose from 161 CNY/ton to 231 CNY/ton [29][30]. - In 2024, benchmark companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy have complete costs of 251, 294, and 310 CNY/ton respectively [29][30]. 3. Coking Coal: Rising Cost Support - The complete cost of coking coal for sample companies increased from 546 CNY/ton to 1051 CNY/ton from 2015 to 2024, with a CAGR of 7.6%. The production cost rose from 432 CNY/ton to 814 CNY/ton [5][6]. - The report indicates that the cost structure for coking coal is also expected to rise due to increased mining difficulty and regulatory pressures [5][6]. 4. Supply Tightening and Market Dynamics - The report notes that domestic coal production has been in negative growth since July, influenced by loss pressures and capacity checks, which are expected to tighten supply further [6][7]. - Import volumes have been declining for eight consecutive months, limiting the ability to supplement domestic supply [6][7]. 5. Key Conclusions and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stable, high-dividend stocks such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, while also suggesting attention to more elastic stocks like Jinko Coal and Huayang Co. [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Freedom Cash Flow ETF CSI All Share (561080) experienced a decline of 1.70% as of the midday close on November 21, with a trading volume of 4.1672 million yuan [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Freedom Cash Flow ETF CSI All Share (561080) closed at 1.211 yuan [1] - The fund has a performance benchmark of the CSI All Share Free Cash Flow Index return rate [1] - Since its establishment on April 23, 2025, the fund has achieved a return of 23.00%, with a one-month return of 4.57% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings - Major stocks in the Freedom Cash Flow ETF include: - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) down 1.44% - Midea Group down 0.05% - Gree Electric Appliances down 0.74% - Wuliangye Yibin down 0.36% - China COSCO Shipping down 0.46% - Luoyang Molybdenum down 3.48% - TCL Technology down 1.92% - China Aluminum down 4.08% - SF Express down 1.34% - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry down 0.43% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the trends in China's coal industry, particularly focusing on the production statistics and future development forecasts [1] - In September 2025, China's raw coal production was reported at 410 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [1] - From January to September 2025, the cumulative raw coal production in China reached 3.57 billion tons, showing a cumulative growth of 2% [1] Group 2 - The article lists key listed companies in the coal sector, including China Shenhua (601088), Zhongmei Energy (601898), Shanxi Coking Coal (000983), and others [1] - The report referenced is the "China Coal Industry Panorama Research and Future Development Trend Assessment Report (2026 Edition)" published by Zhiyan Consulting [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, providing comprehensive industry research reports and customized services [1]

截至9月30日，陕西煤业股东户数10.50万，较上期增加2.07%；人均流通股92312股，较上期减少 2.02%。2025年1月-9月，陕西煤业实现营业收入1180.83亿元，同比减少5.86%；归母净利润127.13亿 元，同比减少20.26%。 分红方面，陕西煤业A股上市后累计派现816.45亿元。近三年，累计派现473.31亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，陕西煤业十大流通股东中，中国证券金融股份有限公司位居第二 大流通股东，持股1.95亿股，持股数量较上期不变。香港中央结算有限公司位居第三大流通股东，持股 1.33亿股，相比上期减少1.07亿股。华夏上证50ETF（510050）位居第八大流通股东，持股7405.03万 股，相比上期减少200.86万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第十大流通股东，持股6605.50万 股，相比上期减少281.22万股。 责任编辑：小浪快报 11月20日，陕西煤业跌2.48%，成交额6.00亿元。两融数据显示，当日陕西煤业获融资买入额5596.29万 元，融资偿还1973.22万元，融资净买入3623.06万元。截至11月20日，陕西煤业 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a slight adjustment towards market-oriented policies in the long-term coal supply contracts for 2026 compared to 2025, with both quantity and price aspects moving closer to market mechanisms [2][7] - The signing volume for coal enterprises is set to be no less than 75% of their own resource volume, while for power generation enterprises, the minimum signing volume should be at least 80% of the demand [2] - The fulfillment rates have been relaxed slightly, with monthly fulfillment remaining at no less than 80%, quarterly fulfillment now being generally no less than 90%, and annual fulfillment also generally no less than 90% [2] - The pricing mechanism for long-term contracts may begin to reference indices, with a monthly adjustment mechanism established for the pricing of coal from production areas [3][4] - The report emphasizes that the coal mining industry continues to show a long-term upward price trend driven by factors such as rising labor costs, increased safety and environmental investments, and higher taxation by local governments [8] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The 2026 policy document indicates that contracts for coal from production areas must align with reasonable price ranges and establish a monthly adjustment mechanism through negotiation between supply and demand enterprises [3] - The pricing for long-term contracts for coal remains unchanged, with a base price set at current levels [4] Market Performance - As of November 19, 2025, the coal mining sector has shown a performance of 2.3% over one month, 11.3% over three months, and 0.2% over twelve months, compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index which recorded 1.6%, 8.6%, and 15.4% respectively [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on robust companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, highlighting their strong cash flow and high asset quality [8] - Specific recommendations include: - Steady stocks: China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others - Stocks with greater elasticity in thermal coal: Yanzhou Coal, Jinko Energy, and others - Stocks with greater elasticity in coking coal: Huaibei Mining, Pingdingshan Coal, and others [8] Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for several coal enterprises [10]

Market Overview - The coal mining sector experienced a decline of 2.08% on November 20, with Dayou Energy leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3931.05, down 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12980.82, down 0.76% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include: - Xindazhou A (000571) increased by 0.88% to close at 5.76, with a trading volume of 342,200 shares and a turnover of 195 million yuan [1] - Dayou Energy (600403) fell by 9.97% to 8.31, with a trading volume of 1,108,400 shares and a turnover of 95.26 million yuan [2] - China Shenhua (601088) decreased by 1.22% to 42.00, with a trading volume of 140,700 shares and a turnover of 596 million yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The coal mining sector saw a net outflow of 564 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 580 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks indicates: - Huai Bei Mining (600985) had a net outflow of 35.39 million yuan from major funds [3] - Electric Power Investment Energy (002128) recorded a net inflow of 22.42 million yuan from major funds [3] - New Dazhou A (000571) experienced a net inflow of 18.34 million yuan from major funds [3]