Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, suggesting that the demand during the peak season remains resilient, and coal prices are expected to rise after adjustments [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the supply side is constrained due to increased safety and environmental inspections, while demand is bolstered by winter heating needs, leading to an anticipated rebound in coal prices [2][8]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with elastic demand for thermal coal, such as Jinkong Coal Industry, Huayang Co., and TBEA, as well as undervalued stocks like Shanxi Coking Coal and Huaibei Mining [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The 2026 National Coal Trading Conference is scheduled for December 3-5 in Rizhao, Shandong [7]. - The Longwanggou Coal Mine's capacity replacement plan has been approved, marking a significant development in coal production capacity [7]. - Shanxi has established 281 green mines, enhancing the province's coal production capabilities [7]. 2. Price Trends of Thermal and Coking Coal - As of November 28, thermal coal prices have decreased slightly, with prices reported at 619, 713, and 816 RMB/ton for different grades [2]. - Coking coal prices have shown stability with minor declines, such as the price for low-sulfur coking coal at 1580 RMB/ton [2][11]. 3. International Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil futures settled at 63.2 USD/barrel, reflecting a 1.02% increase [14]. 4. Inventory Levels in the Bohai Rim - The average daily coal inflow in the Bohai Rim ports decreased to 2.0511 million tons, while the outflow increased to 1.9854 million tons, indicating a supply-demand adjustment [18]. - The total coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports rose to 26.671 million tons, marking a 2.65% increase [18]. 5. Coastal Shipping Rates - Domestic coastal shipping rates have decreased to 42.62 RMB/ton, a drop of 9.84% [27]. - International shipping rates have seen an increase, with Indonesian coal prices rising to 10.36 USD/ton [27]. 6. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating stock prices and market capitalizations, such as China Shenhua at 41.14 RMB with a market cap of 817.4 billion RMB [33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, rating it as "看好" (Overweight) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience of seasonal demand for coal, suggesting that coal prices are expected to stabilize and rebound [2] - It notes that while there has been a decrease in the prices of thermal coal, the demand from power plants remains strong due to cold weather [2] - The report emphasizes the impact of regulatory inspections on coal production, which is expected to limit overall output [2] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The 2026 National Coal Trading Conference is scheduled for December 3-5 in Rizhao, Shandong [8] - A significant coal mine in Inner Mongolia has received approval for a capacity replacement plan, enhancing production capabilities [8] - Shanxi province has established 281 green mines, contributing to sustainable coal production [8] Price Trends of Coal - As of November 28, thermal coal prices have decreased slightly, with specific prices reported for various grades [9] - The report indicates that the price index for thermal coal remains stable, with some fluctuations noted [9][10] - Coking coal prices are also showing a mixed trend, with some prices decreasing while others remain stable [12] Inventory and Supply Chain Dynamics - The average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports has decreased, while outflow has increased, indicating a shift in supply dynamics [20] - Coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports has risen, reflecting changes in demand and supply [20] Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs have decreased, while international shipping rates have seen an increase [30] Company Valuation - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalization, and earnings projections [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and others, indicating a positive outlook for the coal mining sector [9]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal price dynamics are primarily driven by "real demand" rather than speculative demand, with expectations of increased consumption as colder weather approaches [2][6]. - The coal market is experiencing a phase of price adjustment due to a lack of significant demand, with coal prices expected to stabilize and potentially rise as winter progresses and consumption increases [2][11]. - The report emphasizes that while coal prices are currently under pressure, the overall upward trend remains intact due to supply constraints and the potential for demand to pick up [6][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index decreased by 0.54%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.18 percentage points, ranking 29th among CITIC sectors [1][76]. - As of November 28, 2025, the price of thermal coal at northern ports was reported at 824 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 7 CNY/ton [35][76]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, leading to price adjustments. The supply remains stable, but demand is not meeting expectations, causing inventory pressures [11][14]. - **Coking Coal**: Prices are declining due to reduced purchasing from downstream sectors, with many coking enterprises pausing purchases to manage existing inventory [40][50]. - **Coke**: The first round of price reductions has begun, with steel mills becoming more cautious in their procurement strategies [56][74]. Price Trends - The report notes that the price of coking coal has seen a cumulative decline of 50-130 CNY/ton across various grades, with expectations for further price drops in the short term [50][56]. - The average profit per ton of coke has increased, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for coking enterprises despite the overall market weakness [70][74]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Inventory levels for both thermal and coking coal are rising, with many downstream buyers halting purchases, leading to increased stockpiles at coal mines [45][56]. - The report highlights that the effective supply of domestic coking coal may gradually shrink due to regulatory pressures and limited new capacity [57][58].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - Since November, the coal price has declined due to weak demand, leading to a sector pullback. Despite high inventory levels at power plants limiting price increases, low port inventories and tight supply conditions suggest limited downside for prices. The current market presents value in dividend-paying stocks with stable earnings, especially considering year-end demand for insurance capital allocation [2][7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) fell by 0.51%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.15 percentage points. The thermal coal price at Qinhuangdao port was 816 CNY/ton, down 18 CNY/ton week-on-week [6][16] Supply and Demand Analysis - As of November 27, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 25 provinces was 5.41 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%. Power plant inventories were 137 million tons, with an available days supply of 25.2 days, up 0.6 days year-on-year. Port inventories showed a year-on-year decline of 9.5% [17][37] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port decreased by 2.16% week-on-week. The price of coking coal at Jingtang port was 1,670 CNY/ton, down 110 CNY/ton week-on-week. The market remains resilient due to low port inventories and seasonal demand [6][44] Investment Recommendations - Stock selection should focus on three strategies: defensive and offensive stocks like Yancoal Energy and Electric Power Investment Energy; stable leaders such as China Coal Energy and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical; and elastic growth stocks like Jinkong Coal and Lu'an Environmental Energy [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the critical role of coal in ensuring power supply stability during the winter months, particularly in the context of increasing electricity demand driven by data centers [2][5]. - It highlights that the peak electricity demand in the U.S. is expected to increase by 166 GW over the next five years, with data centers being a significant contributor to this growth [2]. - The report suggests that coal-fired power generation will be essential in filling the supply gap during winter electricity shortages, reinforcing its importance as a reliable energy source [5]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Prices - European ARA coal price is at $97.3 per ton, down by $1.44 per ton (-1.46%) from the previous week [1]. - Newcastle coal price is at $111.1 per ton, up by $0.2 per ton (+0.18%) [1]. - IPE South African Richards Bay coal price is at $85.1 per ton, up by $0.2 per ton (+0.18%) [1]. Electricity Demand - The report notes that coal power will play a crucial role in meeting electricity demand, especially during winter when renewable energy sources may be less reliable [5][6]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong performance potential, such as Yancoal Energy and Jinneng Holding, which are expected to benefit from the increased demand for coal [5][6]. Key Stocks - The report lists several key stocks with "Buy" ratings, including: - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) with an EPS forecast of 1.46 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 9.40 [6]. - China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH) with an EPS forecast of 2.95 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 14.40 [6]. - Jinneng Holding (601001.SH) with an EPS forecast of 1.68 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 9.00 [6]. Market Trends - The report indicates a significant increase in electricity demand, with data centers being a primary driver, and suggests that coal will remain a vital component of the energy mix in the coming years [2][5].

Core Insights - The coal mining sector experienced a 0.98% increase on November 27, with Xinda Zhou A leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.26, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12875.19, down 0.25% [1] Coal Mining Sector Performance - Xinda Zhou A (000571) closed at 5.67, up 3.85% with a trading volume of 365,900 shares and a transaction value of 203 million yuan [1] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225) closed at 23.04, up 2.49% with a trading volume of 272,900 shares and a transaction value of 622 million yuan [1] - Dayou Energy (600403) closed at 8.02, up 1.78% with a trading volume of 589,800 shares and a transaction value of 471 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include Jinkong Coal Industry (601001) and Jiukang Energy (600188), with respective increases of 1.67% and 1.60% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The coal mining sector saw a net inflow of 9.66 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 13.74 million yuan [2] - However, there was a net outflow of 23.40 million yuan from speculative funds [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Yancoal Energy (600188) experienced a significant net outflow of 54.61 million yuan from institutional investors, indicating a 12.51% share of total capital flow [3] - Lu'an Environmental Energy (669T09) had a net inflow of 43.37 million yuan from institutional investors, representing 14.65% of total capital flow [3] - Yongtai Energy (600157) also saw a net inflow of 35.48 million yuan from institutional investors, accounting for 4.19% of total capital flow [3]

Core Viewpoint - Shaanxi Coal Industry's stock price has shown fluctuations with a recent increase of 2.00%, while the company faces a decline in revenue and net profit year-on-year [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 27, Shaanxi Coal's stock price is 22.93 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 222.31 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has increased by 4.31% year-to-date, but has seen a decline of 1.04% over the last five trading days [1]. - The trading volume on November 27 was 3.97 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 0.18% [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Shaanxi Coal reported operating revenue of 118.08 billion CNY, a decrease of 5.86% year-on-year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 12.71 billion CNY, down 20.26% compared to the previous year [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 105,000, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 2.02% to 92,312 shares [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 81.65 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 47.33 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3]. - Major shareholders include China Securities Finance Corporation and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, with the latter reducing its holdings by 10.7 million shares [3].

Investment Strategy - The oil and gas capital expenditure trend is declining, leading to a slowdown in supply growth. Since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, global capital expenditure in the oil and gas upstream sector has significantly decreased, with a notable drop of nearly 22% from the 2014 peak to $351 billion in 2021. This trend is expected to continue as major energy companies face pressure to decarbonize and shift focus towards energy transition and renewable projects [9][25][27] - The current active drilling rig count in the US remains low, with new well costs closely aligned with current oil prices, limiting profit margins. The growth rate of US oil production is anticipated to slow down, with evidence emerging from the first half of 2025 [9][25][27] Oil Market - Brent crude oil spot price is currently at $63.54 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.63%, while WTI crude oil is at $59.43 per barrel, down 0.43% [10][28] - The geopolitical situation, particularly the easing of tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, is contributing to a volatile oil price environment. The expectation of a breakthrough in diplomatic negotiations has led to fluctuations in oil prices [10][28] Coal Market - The average market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is reported at 820 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.35%. However, the market is experiencing a stalemate as downstream demand remains cautious towards high prices [11][12] - The total inventory at nine ports in the Bohai Rim is reported at 23.93 million tons, up 6.74% week-on-week, while southern ports report a decrease of 1.48% to 603.8 million tons [11][12] Coking Coal Market - Coking coal prices are experiencing a high-level consolidation, with the price of coking coal at the Jingtang port reported at 1,780 RMB per ton, down 4.30% week-on-week. The price of coking coal is less regulated compared to thermal coal, allowing producers to benefit from price increases [13][14] - The average daily iron output from 247 steel mills is reported at 2.3621 million tons, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.30% week-on-week, indicating a weak demand environment for steel products [13][14] Natural Gas Market - Russian LNG is entering the Chinese market at prices 20-30% lower than market rates, despite US pressure on Japan and Europe to halt imports of Russian LNG. This influx is contributing to a stable supply environment [14][15] - The average price of natural gas in the US is reported at $4.44 per million British thermal units, down 1.4% week-on-week, while European gas prices are on the rise [14][15] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services sector is expected to maintain its growth due to government policies aimed at ensuring energy security. The capital expenditure of major oil companies is projected to remain high, supporting the oilfield services industry's outlook [16][17] - The global active rig count is reported at 1,800, with a slight decrease in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions, while the US shows a week-on-week increase of 5 rigs [16][17]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has seen a decline, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.9 percentage points, with a weekly drop of 5.67% as of November 21, 2025 [2] - Short-term coal consumption is low, leading to an increase in social inventory, but it remains below last year's levels. There is a need to ensure supply while releasing production safely [5][29] - The report anticipates a gradual balance in supply and demand in the fourth quarter, with coal prices expected to rise steadily, targeting 850 CNY/ton [5][29] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - As of November 21, 2025, the average daily coal sales from monitored enterprises were 7.53 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.2% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [2] - The total coal inventory (including port storage) was 24.61 million tons, up 1.3% week-on-week but down 19% year-on-year [2][6] Price Trends - The price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) was stable at 698 CNY/ton, while the imported thermal coal price index was 944 CNY/ton, also unchanged [3] - The price of coking coal at major ports showed a decline, with the main coking coal price at 1,790 CNY/ton, down 2.2% week-on-week [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in high-dividend thermal coal companies, specifically mentioning China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [5][29] - Focus on coking coal companies such as Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal, as well as coking companies with improved profits like Jinneng Technology and others [5][29]

格隆汇11月24日｜华创证券研报指出，陕西煤业2025Q1-3实现归母净利润127.1亿元，同比-27.22%；其 中Q3归母净利润50.7亿元，同比/环比分别-26.59%/+79.08%。煤价上行支撑盈利修复，煤电一体化巩固 长期优势。近期煤价回升态势明显，据Wind数据显示，第三季度陕西榆林坑口动力块煤均价626.9元/ 吨，环比上涨6.95%。叠加疆煤及进口煤产量下降，随气温下降下游电厂冬储需求上涨；且第四季度安 检严格，煤矿产量受到影响；预计第四季度煤价继续上涨。公司发挥"煤电一体化"优势，积极响应市场 变化，进一步增强公司业绩，形成煤炭开采、洗选、运输、销售至电力生产的完整产业链，公司盈利稳 健性将明显提升；基于2025年Wind一致预期和60%的分红比例，当前时点（11.21）公司股息率约为 4.8%。考虑可比公司以及历史估值，给予公司2026年13倍PE，对应目标价27.56元，维持"强推"评级。 ...