Core Insights - Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225.SH) reported its main operational data for January 2026, indicating a coal production of 15.19 million tons and self-produced coal sales of 13.91 million tons [1] - The total electricity generation for the month was 4.488 billion kilowatt-hours, with total electricity sales reaching 4.244 billion kilowatt-hours [1] Group 1 - The coal production in January 2026 was 15.19 million tons [1] - The self-produced coal sales amounted to 13.91 million tons [1] - The total electricity generation for January was 4.488 billion kilowatt-hours [1] Group 2 - The total electricity sales for the month reached 4.244 billion kilowatt-hours [1]

Core Insights - Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225.SH) reported its main operational data for January 2026, indicating a coal production of 15.19 million tons and self-produced coal sales of 13.91 million tons [1] - The total electricity generation for the month reached 4.488 billion kilowatt-hours, with total electricity sales amounting to 4.244 billion kilowatt-hours [1] Production Data - Coal production in January 2026 was 15.19 million tons [1] - Self-produced coal sales for the same period were 13.91 million tons [1] Electricity Generation - Total electricity generation in January 2026 was 4.488 billion kilowatt-hours [1] - Total electricity sales during the month were 4.244 billion kilowatt-hours [1]

证券代码：601225 证券简称：陕西煤业 公告编号：2026-002 | 运营指标 | 单位 | 2026 | 年 | 2025 | 年 | | 同比变化（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 1 月 | 累计 | 1 月 | 累计 | 1 月 | 累计 | | 一、煤炭 | | | | | | | | | 煤炭产量 | 万吨 | 1,519.00 | 1,519.00 | 1,428.16 | 1,428.16 | 6.36 | 6.36 | | 自产煤销量 | 万吨 | 1,391.00 | 1,391.00 | 1,293.39 | 1,293.39 | 7.55 | 7.55 | | 二、发电 | | | | | | | | | 总发电量 | 亿千瓦时 | 44.88 | 44.88 | 33.18 | 33.18 | 35.26 | 35.26 | | 总售电量 | 亿千瓦时 | 42.44 | 42.44 | 31.10 | 31.10 | 36.46 | 36.46 | 以上主要运营数据来自本公司内部统计，可能 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Shaanxi Coal Industry reported significant growth in coal production and sales for January, with a year-on-year increase of 6.36% in coal production and 7.55% in coal sales [1] - In January, the total electricity generation reached 4.488 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 35.26% [1] - The total electricity sales for January amounted to 4.244 billion kilowatt-hours, which represents a year-on-year increase of 36.46% [1] Group 2 - The cumulative coal production for the year so far stands at 1,519 million tons, showing a consistent year-on-year growth of 6.36% [1] - The cumulative coal sales for the year are also at 1,391 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 7.55% [1] - The cumulative total electricity generation for the year is 4.488 billion kilowatt-hours, maintaining the same growth rate of 35.26% year-on-year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported an increase in coal production and sales, as well as significant growth in power generation and sales for the year 2026 compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Coal Production and Sales - The company's coal production reached 15.19 million tons in January 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.36% [1] - Self-produced coal sales amounted to 13.91 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.55% [1] Group 2: Power Generation and Sales - Total power generation was 4.488 billion kilowatt-hours, which is a year-on-year increase of 35.26% [1] - Total electricity sales reached 4.244 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.46% [1]

Group 1 - Indonesia's export policy adjustment significantly reduces production quotas, reflecting a shift in the government's strategy for resource exports, including nickel and coal, aimed at controlling supply and increasing prices [1][2] - In February 2026, Indonesian mining officials announced a substantial reduction in coal production quotas by 40% to 70% compared to 2025 levels, as part of a plan to boost coal prices [2] - Indonesia's coal production for 2025 is projected at 790 million tons, a 5% year-on-year decrease, with potential further reductions to 600 million tons in 2026, representing a 24% decline from 2025 [2] Group 2 - Global coal supply-demand balance may begin to shift in 2026, with supply contraction and rising demand, indicating a potential upward price cycle for coal [3] - Indonesia is expected to export 524 million tons of coal in 2025, a 6.1% decrease, and if production is limited to 600 million tons in 2026, exports could drop to 450 million tons, impacting global shipping trade [3] - Other countries, including Australia and Russia, are also facing production declines, contributing to a tightening global coal market [3] Group 3 - China's coal imports from Indonesia are projected to decline further in 2026, with an expected total of around 45 million tons, a decrease of approximately 4 million tons [4] - In 2025, Indonesia is expected to export 21 million tons of coal to China, a 10.6% year-on-year decrease, accounting for 42.9% of China's total coal imports [4] - Domestic coal prices in China are anticipated to recover in 2026, ending a four-year decline, supported by stable domestic supply and slightly reduced overseas imports [4] Group 4 - Companies with a clear outlook for volume and price elasticity over the next five years are recommended for investment, including Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225), China Coal Energy (601898), Jincheng Anthracite Mining (601001), and China Shenhua Energy (601088) [5] - Yancoal Australia (03668) is also recommended for investment in the Hong Kong market [5]

Summary of Conference Call on Coal Industry Outlook Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the coal industry, particularly the impact of Indonesia's coal export policy adjustments on global and Chinese coal markets [1][3][12]. Key Points and Arguments - **Indonesia's Export Policy Changes**: Indonesia has significantly reduced its coal production quota for 2026, leading to an expected decrease in export volume by 90 million tons, primarily affecting the spot market while long-term contracts remain largely unaffected [1][4]. - **Impact on Small vs. Large Miners**: Smaller miners will face greater production pressure due to the new quotas, while large coal companies are less affected due to their long-term contracts [1][5]. - **Price Projections**: The anticipated supply contraction in the global thermal coal market, combined with improving demand, is expected to drive prices up. If Indonesia strictly enforces its export limits, coal prices could rise to 800 RMB/ton [1][9]. - **Profitability of Major Companies**: Companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿) are projected to achieve significant profits, with estimates of 12 billion RMB in main business profits at a price of 750 RMB/ton, potentially reaching 16 billion RMB if prices rise to 800 RMB/ton [1][10]. - **China's Market Reaction**: A reduction of 40 million tons in Indonesian exports could lead to a price increase of approximately 100 RMB/ton in China, indicating a 15% upside potential from current prices [2][12]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with high market share and growth potential, such as Yanzhou, China Coal Energy, and Shenhua, while also considering companies that are sensitive to price changes [2][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Long-term Market Dynamics**: The overall trend indicates a tightening supply situation, which is expected to support higher prices in the coal market [8][9]. - **Government Revenue Considerations**: Indonesia's government aims to increase fiscal revenue through these export restrictions, and future policy adjustments will depend on the acceptance of price increases by downstream demand [7][8]. - **Potential for Future Adjustments**: The likelihood of policy changes post-Ramadan remains uncertain, with expectations that coal prices may strengthen in the first quarter [6][8]. - **Valuation Considerations**: Current valuations for companies like Yanzhou suggest significant investment potential, with projected earnings growth and a commitment to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of at least 60% [10][11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the coal industry's future, particularly in light of Indonesia's export policies and their implications for market dynamics and investment strategies.

Group 1 - The A-share market showed recovery with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4100 points, closing up 0.85% while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.21% and the ChiNext Index fell 0.4% [1] - The coal energy sector performed exceptionally well, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Meijin Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal [1][2] - The coal mining and processing sector saw an overall increase of 7.92%, with several stocks achieving limit up, indicating strong market interest and performance [2] Group 2 - Recent cold weather has increased energy demand for heating, prompting local governments to enhance energy supply measures, which supports coal production and supply stability [3] - Analysts are optimistic about coal prices stabilizing and rebounding, with expectations of increased demand post-Chinese New Year, suggesting a tight supply-demand balance [3] - The coal ETF has risen over 10% year-to-date, reflecting strong investor interest and net inflows over the past four days [4] Group 3 - International thermal coal prices have significantly increased, with Australian Newcastle coal futures reaching a one-year high, indicating a bullish trend in the market [5] - Forecasts for the coal industry suggest a notable improvement in profitability by 2026, driven by a slowdown in supply growth and recovery in demand [5]

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.04 印尼削减产量配额，搅动全球煤炭贸易 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 行 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄涛(分析师) | 021-38674879 | huangtao@gtht.com | S0880515090001 | | 邓铖琦(分析师) | 010-83939825 | dengchengqi@gtht.com | S0880523050003 | 本报告导读： 印尼出口政策调整，大幅削减产量配额；全球煤炭 2026 年起供给收缩需求抬升，看 好上升周期；2026 年中国进口煤量或将进一步下降，国内煤价有望恢复增长。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 煤炭《持仓略有提升，焦炭第一轮提价》 2026.02.02 煤炭《国泰海通煤炭行业基本面数据库大全 20260202》2026.02.02 煤炭《Q4 基金持仓持续回升，板块拐点确认》 2026.01.30 煤炭《地产政策多部门联动稳预期，非电需求有 望修复》202 ...

印尼矿商暂停煤炭出口，煤价上行预期明 显加强 ——煤炭行业动态跟踪报告 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：2026 年国内煤炭供需基本稳定，海外扰动可能成为驱动煤价变化的主要因 素，目前印尼方面已出现明显扰动，煤价具有上涨可能。且从长期角度，全球煤炭贸易 成本将逐步抬升，对国内煤价将形成支撑。优质煤企此前的估值仅反映出"类债"价 值，随着煤价上涨可能性的提高，将逐步向"类债"+"煤价看涨期权"演变，这部分"看涨期 权"价值目前市场反应还较为有限，推荐中国神华(601088，增持)、中煤能源(601898， 增持)、陕西煤业(601225，增持)、晋控煤业(601001，增持)。 风险提示 经济增速下滑；水电出力超预期；海外煤价大幅下跌；政策实施力度不及预期。 行业名称 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 煤炭行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 04 日 看好（维持） | 蒋山 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110006 | | --- | --- | | | jiangshan2@orientsec.com.cn | | | 0755-82819271 | | 李晓渊 | 执业证 ...