业务范围包括火力发电、综合利用发电、新能源电站、综合能源 服务和配售电等。现有发电控股装机 1082 万千瓦（其中煤电 962 万千瓦,新能源 120万千瓦),主要分布在陕西、湖南、湖北、河 南、山西、江西等６省份。而到"十四五"末，陕煤电力集团欲 将总装机规模达到 5507 万千瓦(其中煤电控股装机 2902 万千瓦、 参股总装机 2105 万千瓦、新能源 500 万千瓦。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------|-------------------------|-------|------------------------------------| | 2024 年 11月 01 日 \n陕西煤业(601225. SH) \n产销环比下降致三季度盈利稍有回落 | | | | 区公司快报 \n证券研究报告 \n动力煤 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. [5][6] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 125.43 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.94 billion yuan, down 1.5% year-on-year, indicating resilience in performance [5][6] - Coal sales volume increased by 5.09% year-on-year to 195.95 million tons, while coal production rose by 2.82% year-on-year to 127.77 million tons, contributing to performance stability despite fluctuations in coal prices [5][6] - The company plans to acquire the power assets of its controlling shareholder to transition towards a "coal-electricity integration" model, which is expected to enhance performance stability [6] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at 21.33 billion, 24.15 billion, and 24.98 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11X, 10X, and 10X [6][7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 172.43 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.9% [7] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 21.33 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year [7] - The earnings per share for 2024 is forecasted to be 2.20 yuan, with a gross margin of 40.2% [7][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][8] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 125.43 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.57%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 15.94 billion, down 1.46% year-on-year [3] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of CNY 40.69 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.12% but a year-on-year increase of 10.66% [3] - The company's coal production for the first three quarters was 127.77 million tons, an increase of 2.82% year-on-year, and coal sales were 195.95 million tons, up 5.09% year-on-year [3] - The average selling price of coal for the first three quarters was CNY 618 per ton, a decrease of CNY 41 per ton (-6.2%) year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of CNY 5.39 billion in Q3 2024, down 8.75% quarter-on-quarter but up 17.10% year-on-year [3] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was CNY 5.17 billion in Q3 2024, a decrease of 11.36% quarter-on-quarter and a decrease of 3.69% year-on-year [3] - The company's financial asset fair value changes contributed CNY 2.4 billion to performance [4] Market Data - The company's stock price is currently CNY 24.72, with a market capitalization of CNY 239.66 billion [1][3] - The stock has a 52-week price range of CNY 17.38 to CNY 29.87 [3] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of CNY 159.8 billion, CNY 164.9 billion, and CNY 170.2 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of CNY 21.165 billion, CNY 22.651 billion, and CNY 24.079 billion [4][6]

证券研究报告 | 2024年10月31日 证券分析师：刘孟峦 证券分析师：胡瑞阳 010-88005312 0755-81982908 liumengluan@guosen.com.cn huruiyang@guosen.com.cn S0980520040001 S0980523060002 基础数据 投资评级 优于大市(维持) 合理估值 收盘价 24.72 元 总市值/流通市值 239660/239660 百万元 52 周最高价/最低价 29.87/17.38 元 近 3 个月日均成交额 769.84 百万元 市场走势 盈利预测和财务指标 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入(百万元) 166,848 170,872 160,567 161,891 163,081 (+/-%) 9.6% 2.4% -6.0% 0.8% 0.7% 净利润(百万元) 35123 21239 21868 22033 22340 (+/-%) 66.1% -39.5% 3.0% 0.8% 1.4% 每股收益（元） 3.62 2.19 2.26 2.27 2.30 EBIT Margin 33.0% 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Shaanxi Coal Industry [4][10] - The target price is adjusted to 29.39 CNY, up from the previous 28.16 CNY [4][10] Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with Q3 revenue of 406.9 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 10.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 53.87 billion CNY, up 17.1% [3][10] - Q3 coal production was 41.365 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 8% due to safety inspections [10] - The company is acquiring power assets from its major shareholder, which is expected to diversify revenue streams and enhance high-quality development [10] Financial Summary - For 2024E, the company is projected to have a revenue of 161.876 billion CNY, a decrease of 5.3% from 2023A [10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 22.091 billion CNY in 2024E, reflecting a 4.0% increase from 2023A [10] - The company reported a net asset value per share of 9.79 CNY and a price-to-book ratio of 2.5 at the current price [6][10] Production and Sales Data - Q3 coal sales reached 64.4 million tons, with self-produced coal sales of 40.61 million tons, both showing year-on-year increases of 2.3% [10] - The average selling price of self-produced coal in Q3 was 510 CNY per ton, down approximately 27 CNY from the previous quarter [10] Investment Income - Investment income increased to 829 million CNY in Q3, up 1.45 billion CNY year-on-year, attributed to the change in accounting for long-term equity investments [10] - The company reported a significant cash flow from operations of 34.7 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6 billion CNY [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [2]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with a focus on coal-electricity integrated operations [1]. - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 125.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.94 billion yuan, down 1.5% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 40.69 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.1% but a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, with a net profit of 5.39 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.1% [2]. - The average selling price of coal showed a narrowing decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% for the first three quarters of 2024 [2]. - The controlling shareholder's increase in holdings demonstrates confidence in the company's future, particularly with the potential for coal-electricity integration [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 19%, ranking first among listed coal companies [3]. - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is 20.7 billion yuan, 21 billion yuan, and 21.5 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 2.14 yuan, 2.17 yuan, and 2.22 yuan [3]. Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 154.33 billion yuan, with a revenue growth rate of -9.68% [4]. - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 20.7 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 2.54% year-on-year [4]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading coal enterprise with strong resource endowment, stable operations, and significant cost advantages [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH) is "Buy," maintaining the previous rating of "Buy" [1]. Core Views - The company reported a steady operational performance, with a focus on the integrated coal and power development strategy, which is expected to enhance future performance [1]. - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 125.43 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 15.943 billion, down 1.46% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s coal production for the first three quarters was 127.77 million tons, an increase of 2.82% year-on-year, while coal sales reached 195.94 million tons, up 5.09% year-on-year [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of CNY 40.69 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.66%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.12% [1]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was CNY 5.387 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.75% [1]. - The average selling price of coal in the first three quarters was CNY 618 per ton, down 6.24% year-on-year, while the unit sales cost was CNY 404 per ton, down 2.51% year-on-year [1][3]. Strategic Developments - Shaanxi Coal Group increased its shareholding in the company to 65.25% through a buyback of 12.13 million A-shares, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term value [1]. - The company signed an asset transfer intention agreement with its controlling shareholder to acquire shares in Shaanxi Coal Power Group, which aligns with its strategy to develop a "coal and power integration" operational model [1]. - The integrated coal and power strategy is expected to enhance revenue, reduce related transactions, and promote high-quality development [1]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of CNY 21.8 billion, CNY 22.3 billion, and CNY 23.3 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1]. - The expected EPS for the same period is CNY 2.24, CNY 2.30, and CNY 2.40, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.14, 10.85, and 10.42 [1][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong long-term investment value due to its industry-leading resource endowment and significant cost advantages [3][5]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit of 15.943 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 1.46% year-on-year, while the operating revenue was 125.427 billion yuan, down 1.57% year-on-year [3]. - In Q3 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.387 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.75% [3]. - The company is pursuing a strategic acquisition of power assets from its controlling shareholder to establish a coal-electricity integrated operation model [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, coal production reached 127.7739 million tons, an increase of 2.82% year-on-year, while coal sales were 195.9488 million tons, up 5.09% year-on-year [3]. - The average selling price of coal was 618.32 yuan per ton, down 6.24% year-on-year, and the cost per ton was 403.65 yuan, a decrease of 2.51% year-on-year [3]. - The company’s gross profit from coal business was 42.064 billion yuan, down 8.09% year-on-year [3]. Future Earnings Forecast - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 21.352 billion yuan, 22.963 billion yuan, and 23.931 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.20 yuan, 2.37 yuan, and 2.47 yuan per share [3][6]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are expected to be 11, 11, and 10 times, respectively, based on the closing price on October 29, 2024 [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [4][12]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2024 revenue reached 40.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.66%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.387 billion yuan, up 17.10% year-on-year but down 8.75% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The decline in self-produced coal sales and the impact of fair value changes significantly influenced the profit figures, with a notable shift from a loss of 1.0716 billion yuan in Q3 2023 to a gain of 188.27 million yuan in Q3 2024 [1][2]. - The coal sales revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 121.16 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.47% year-on-year, while the sales cost increased by 2.46% to 79.096 billion yuan, leading to a gross profit of 42.064 billion yuan, down 8.09% year-on-year [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company forecasts net profits of 22.059 billion yuan, 22.646 billion yuan, and 23.087 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.28, 2.34, and 2.38 yuan [2][3]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 147.558 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 13.64% compared to 2023 [3]. - The net profit margin for the company is reported at 21.05%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 34.21% [7][8]. Market Position and Valuation - The company has a total market capitalization of 242.375 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.99 for 2024 [4][3]. - The company's price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 2.49, and the enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is projected at 4.26 for 2024 [3][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][3]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit of 15.943 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.46%, with total revenue of 125.427 billion yuan, also down 1.57%. However, in Q3 2024, the net profit was 5.387 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.1%, and revenue reached 40.69 billion yuan, up 10.66% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company has signed an asset transfer intention agreement with its controlling shareholder, Shaanxi Coal Group, to acquire the entire equity of Shaanxi Coal Power Group, which is a significant step towards establishing a "coal-electricity integration" operational model [3]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved coal production of 127.77 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, and coal sales of 195.95 million tons, up 5.1%. In Q3 2024, raw coal production was 41.37 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.0%. Coal sales in Q3 were 6.44 million tons, up 11.3% year-on-year but down 8.1% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Pricing and Cost - The average coal price for Q1-Q3 2024 was 618 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.2% year-on-year, but it increased from 575 yuan/ton in the first half of 2024. The cost per ton of coal was 404 yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year [2]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 21 billion yuan, 22 billion yuan, and 23.4 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.5X, 11.0X, and 10.3X [3][7].