Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Xinji Energy, among others [11][14]. Core Insights - The coal market is currently experiencing a weak supply-demand balance, with prices expected to remain stable amidst high inventory levels and fluctuating demand [18][30]. - The report highlights the potential for "black swan" events, particularly from increased demand in the U.S. and reduced production/export from Indonesia, which could significantly impact coal prices [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies with overseas operations, such as Qinfa and Yancoal Australia, as they may benefit from shifts in the global coal trade [3]. Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index reached 3743.77 points, up 1.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.06 percentage points [77]. - The U.S. coal stock BTU reached a new high of $39.95 per share, indicating a strong market performance [2]. - Indonesia is tightening coal supply by closing illegal mining operations, which could further influence global coal prices [2]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: Daily consumption is rising, but high inventory levels are leading to a weak market sentiment. Prices are expected to fluctuate as the market approaches the Chinese New Year [18][30]. - **Coking Coal**: The first round of price increases has faced resistance, and market sentiment is weakening. Focus is on pre-holiday stockpiling needs [37][51]. - **Coke**: Price increases have been delayed, and market sentiment is declining, with steel mills maintaining cautious purchasing strategies [51][75]. Key Companies - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China Shenhua, Yancoal Australia, and Qinfa, which are well-positioned to capitalize on market changes [14][12]. - Companies like Peabody (BTU) and Jin控煤业 are also highlighted for their potential growth opportunities [14][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Xinji Energy, while maintaining an "Overweight" rating for Pingmei Shenma Group [5][11]. Core Insights - The coal market is expected to face a dual weakness in supply and demand as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to a potential stabilization in coal prices [18][31]. - The report highlights the impact of AI on reshaping the U.S. coal market, indicating a rebound in demand that could influence global coal trade dynamics [2][3]. - Indonesia's government is tightening regulations on illegal mining, which may affect coal supply and prices globally [2][3]. Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index rose to 3743.77 points, an increase of 1.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.06 percentage points [78]. - The report notes that U.S. coal consumption is experiencing explosive growth, while exports are expected to slow down, leading to a tighter global coal trade balance [3][35]. - As of January 23, 2026, the price of thermal coal at northern ports was reported at 691 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 13 RMB/ton [31][19]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: The report indicates a rise in daily consumption and cost support, but high inventory levels may lead to price fluctuations [18][31]. - **Coking Coal**: The first round of price increases has faced resistance, and market sentiment is weakening due to rising costs impacting profitability for coking enterprises [38][49]. - **Coke**: The market is experiencing a pause in price increases, with a shift in sentiment leading to increased selling pressure from intermediaries [52][76]. Focused Companies - Key companies recommended for investment include China Shenhua, Yancoal Australia, and Shaanxi Coal and Energy, with a focus on those involved in smart mining and international coal markets [14][12]. - The report also highlights companies like Peabody (BTU) and China Qinfa, which are positioned to benefit from international market dynamics [14][3].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies in the coal mining sector, including China Coal Energy (H+A), Yanzhou Coal Mining (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant increase in U.S. natural gas futures prices due to a polar cold wave and short covering, with prices rising by 25% to $4.875 per million British thermal units, marking the highest settlement price since December 8 [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for coal consumption to increase as power producers may switch to coal to control fuel costs amid rising natural gas prices [3][8]. Summary by Sections Energy Price Overview - As of January 23, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $65.88 per barrel, up $1.75 (+2.73%) from the previous week, while WTI crude oil futures settled at $61.07 per barrel, up $1.63 (+2.74%) [1]. - Natural gas prices also saw significant increases, with Northeast Asia LNG spot prices at $11.81 per million British thermal units (+4.04%) and U.S. HH natural gas futures at $5.35 per million British thermal units (+72.18%) [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report specifically recommends focusing on companies that are performing well, such as China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Shenhua Energy, and Shaanxi Coal, as well as companies involved in smart mining like Keda Control and those in recovery like China Qinfa [3][8]. - Additional companies to watch include Peabody (BTU), Jinkong Coal Industry, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and others that may see growth in the future [3]. Coal Market Dynamics - The report notes slight adjustments in coal prices, with Newcastle coal at $111.50 per ton, down $0.05 (-0.04%), while European ARA coal prices increased to $98.50 per ton, up $1.85 (+1.91%) [1][40]. - The overall coal market is expected to benefit from the rising natural gas prices, potentially leading to increased coal consumption in power generation [3].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies in the coal mining sector, including China Coal Energy (H+A), Yanzhou Coal Mining (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant increase in U.S. natural gas futures prices due to a polar cold wave and short covering, with prices rising by 25% to $4.875 per million British thermal units, marking the highest settlement price since December 8 [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for coal consumption to increase as power producers may switch to coal to control fuel costs amid rising natural gas prices [8]. - The report notes that the performance of coal mining companies is expected to improve as annual report disclosures approach, following the principle that "strong performance leads to strong stocks" [3]. Summary by Sections Energy Prices Overview - As of January 23, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $65.88 per barrel, up $1.75 (+2.73%) from the previous week, while WTI crude oil futures settled at $61.07 per barrel, up $1.63 (+2.74%) [1]. - Natural gas prices have also seen significant increases, with Northeast Asia LNG spot prices at $11.81 per million British thermal units, up $0.46 (+4.04%) [1]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report specifically recommends focusing on companies such as Keda Control Technology, which is advancing in smart mining, and China Qinfa, which is experiencing a turnaround [3]. - Additional companies to watch include Peabody (BTU), Jinkong Coal Industry, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and others that may see growth in the future [3]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of weather on natural gas production, particularly in the Marcellus shale region, which may face operational challenges due to snow [8]. - It also notes that the U.S. natural gas inventory surplus is rapidly decreasing, with expectations that it will fall below the five-year average by the end of March [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The current phase is viewed as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [3][13] - The coal supply bottleneck is expected to persist, necessitating the planning and construction of high-quality production capacity to meet medium- to long-term energy coal demand [14] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, high cash flow, and high dividend yields, with a favorable investment outlook due to the tightening supply-demand balance and the potential for price increases [5][14] Summary by Sections 1. Price Trends - As of January 24, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 686 RMB/ton, down 11 RMB/ton week-on-week [4][31] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port is 1780 RMB/ton, up 30 RMB/ton week-on-week [33] 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The utilization rate of sample thermal coal mines is 89.6%, down 1 percentage point week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 89.33%, up 0.9 percentage points [5][49] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces increased by 33.70 thousand tons/day (+8.18%) and in coastal provinces by 23.90 thousand tons/day (+10.97%) [5][50] 3. Industry Performance - The coal sector has shown resilience, with a 1.44% increase in the coal sector index, outperforming the broader market [16] - The thermal coal segment saw a slight decline of 0.29%, while the coking coal segment increased by 3.84% [18] 4. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with stable operations and strong performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [14] - Consider companies with significant price elasticity and cost advantages in the coal chemical sector for potential alpha opportunities [5][13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are at a turning point, with both thermal coal and coking coal prices expected to rebound. The price of thermal coal is influenced by policies and is expected to go through a four-step process: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and approaching the breakeven point for power plants [4][15] - The report highlights that the current thermal coal price is below the profit-sharing line of 750 CNY/ton, but it is expected to gradually recover to this reasonable price level. The demand for coal is increasing due to the heating season and industrial production ramping up [3][4] - Coking coal prices are more market-driven and are expected to fluctuate based on supply and demand fundamentals. The report provides target prices for coking coal based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [4][15] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rise due to the dual influence of tightening supply and increasing demand. The report outlines that the price recovery will be driven by the repair of long-term contracts and the need to reach a profit-sharing position for coal and power companies [4][15] - Coking coal prices are determined by market dynamics, with target prices provided based on the ratio to thermal coal prices [4][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. It identifies four main lines for stock selection: 1. Cyclical logic: Jin控煤业 and 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, and 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal 2. Dividend logic: 中国神华 and 中煤能源 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份 and 电投能源 4. Growth logic: 新集能源 and 广汇能源 [5][16] Key Market Indicators - As of January 24, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 685 CNY/ton, a decrease of 10 CNY/ton from the previous period. The report notes that the price has reached the estimated target range of 800-860 CNY/ton [3][21] - The report also mentions that the average PE ratio for the coal sector is 15.05, and the PB ratio is 1.34, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to other sectors [10][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [1]. Core Insights - The coal mining industry is experiencing marginal improvements in supply and demand, with coal prices showing support. The report highlights that the recent cold wave has increased electricity consumption, leading to a rise in daily coal usage by major power plants [1][13]. - The report emphasizes the long-term upward trend in coal prices driven by factors such as rising labor costs, increased safety and environmental investments, and government taxation policies. It suggests that the coal price will continue to have upward pressure despite potential fluctuations [6][70]. Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - As of January 23, the price of thermal coal at northern ports is 685 RMB/ton, a decrease of 10 RMB/ton week-on-week. The production capacity utilization rate in the western regions has decreased by 0.86 percentage points due to maintenance and early holidays [13][14]. - The report notes a decline in coal shipments and an increase in electricity consumption due to the cold weather, indicating a marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics [13][27]. - The report anticipates that as the Spring Festival approaches, supply tightness is expected, which may support thermal coal prices in the medium term [13][68]. 2. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate for coking coal mines increased by 0.39 percentage points to 84.9%, mainly due to recovery in certain regions. However, supply in Shanxi is constrained by safety inspections [36][69]. - The price of main coking coal at ports is 1800 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 30 RMB/ton. The report indicates that the overall production and inventory levels are stable, with a focus on the recovery of steel production [37][69]. 3. Coke - The report indicates that the production rate of coke plants remains stable, with a capacity utilization rate of 74.12%. However, the first round of price increases for coke has been delayed due to weak steel market conditions [47][48]. - The average profit per ton of coke is reported to be negative, indicating challenges in profitability for the sector [49]. 4. Anthracite - The report states that the price of anthracite remains stable, with supply levels being adequate and demand driven by pre-holiday stocking [64][66]. 5. Key Companies and Investment Logic - The report highlights several key companies to watch, including: - China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, which are considered stable investment options due to their strong fundamentals and high dividends [70][72]. - Yancoal and Jinneng Holding, which are noted for their high elasticity in thermal coal [70][72]. - Huayang Co. and Lanhua Sci-Tech, which are recognized for their unique positioning in the anthracite market [70][72].

Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a slight increase in coking coal prices while thermal coal inventories continue to decline, indicating a potential stabilization in prices moving forward [7][85][87]. Market Dynamics - Thermal coal prices have shown a slight decrease, with the CCI5500 thermal coal index reported at 691 RMB/ton, down 11 RMB/ton week-on-week [13][86]. - The production capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is at 89.8%, reflecting a 1.2 percentage point increase week-on-week [23]. - Inventory levels at major ports have decreased, with a reported 6.939 million tons, down 2.4% week-on-week [23][30]. Industry Outlook - The coal industry is expected to see a significant improvement in profitability in 2026, with a projected total profit of 2.97 billion RMB in 2025, down 47% year-on-year [7][87]. - The supply side is anticipated to experience a substantial decrease in growth rates compared to previous years, with coal prices expected to gradually rise [7][87]. - The long-term contracts for coal supply in 2026 are expected to remain stable, with stricter safety regulations likely to limit production [88][89]. Key Companies - Notable companies with stable profit distributions include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated demand recovery and supply constraints [7][87]. - Companies with high elasticity benefiting from improved demand expectations include Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [7][87]. - Long-term growth companies identified include Huayang Co., New Energy, and Baofeng Energy, which are expected to show significant growth potential [7][87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market has recovered, and credit has followed the decline in interest rates. The credit spreads in the 3 - 7Y period have all converged. The yields of various - term credit bonds have also significantly declined, and the credit spreads of different - term and - grade bonds have shown different changes [3][10] - The spreads of urban investment bonds have generally decreased by 2BP, with spreads of different - rated and - level platforms showing varying degrees of decline [4][15][19] - The spreads of real - estate bonds have generally continued to widen, but the spread of Vanke has been significantly compressed. The spreads of other industrial bonds have slightly declined [4][25] - The yields of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds have continued to decline, with the largest decline in spreads in the 3Y period [5][33] - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds have widened, while the excess spreads of urban investment perpetual bonds have shown differentiation [5][36] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market and Credit Spreads Convergence - This week, the bond market recovered, and the interest - rate curve steeply declined. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y CDB bonds decreased by 2BP, 1BP, 2BP, 3BP, and 4BP respectively. The yields of various - term credit bonds also dropped significantly. From the perspective of credit spreads, the 3 - 7Y credit spreads all narrowed [3][10] 3.2 Urban Investment Bond Spreads - The spreads of urban investment bonds decreased by 2BP overall. The credit spreads of external - rated AAA, AA +, and AA platforms all decreased by 2BP compared to last week. By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial, municipal, and district - county platforms decreased by 2BP compared to last week [4][15][19] 3.3 Real - Estate and Other Industrial Bond Spreads - The spreads of real - estate bonds continued to widen overall, but the spread of Vanke was greatly compressed. The spreads of other industrial bonds slightly declined. The spreads of central - state - owned real - estate bonds widened by 4BP, state - owned real - estate bonds by 1BP, private real - estate bonds by 17BP, and mixed - ownership real - estate bonds converged by 103BP [4][25] 3.4 Secondary - Tier and Perpetual Bond Yields and Spreads - This week, the yields of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds continued to decline, with the largest decline in spreads in the 3Y period. The yields of different - grade 1Y secondary - tier capital bonds decreased by 1 - 2BP, and perpetual bonds by 2BP; 3Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 3BP, and perpetual bonds by 4BP; 5Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 2 - 4BP, and perpetual bonds by 1 - 2BP; 10Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 5BP, and perpetual bonds by 4BP [5][33] 3.5 Excess Spreads of Industrial and Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds - This week, the excess spread of 3Y industrial AAA - grade perpetual bonds widened by 0.26BP to 14.67BP, and the 5Y by 0.01BP to 13.21BP. The 3Y urban - investment AAA - grade perpetual - bond excess spread decreased by 0.48BP to 4.03BP, and the 5Y increased by 3.21BP to 13.34BP [5][36] 3.6 Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial - bank secondary - tier spreads, and urban - investment/industrial perpetual - bond credit spreads are based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term note and ChinaBond perpetual - bond data. The historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015. The credit spreads related to urban - investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by the Huafu Securities Research Institute, and the historical quantiles are also since the beginning of 2015 [38][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal industry, recommending several companies based on their performance and market conditions [2][3]. Core Insights - The coal prices are expected to stabilize and rebound due to tightening supply and ongoing replenishment demand, despite current weak market conditions [11]. - In 2025, domestic raw coal production is projected to reach 4.83 billion tons, an increase of 7.28 million tons (+1.2%) year-on-year, while total imports are expected to decline by 9.6% to 490 million tons [11]. - The report suggests that coal prices may return to a seasonal fluctuation range of 750-1000 RMB/ton, as supply constraints and regulatory normalization take effect [11]. - Investment recommendations focus on companies with high spot market exposure and strong balance sheets, particularly those in Shanxi province, which has completed overproduction governance [11][16]. Company Performance Predictions - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, all rated as "Recommended": - Jinko Coal Industry: EPS of 1.68 RMB, PE of 9 for 2024 [2] - Shanxi Coal International: EPS of 1.14 RMB, PE of 9 for 2024 [2] - Lu'an Environmental Energy: EPS of 0.82 RMB, PE of 16 for 2024 [2] - Huayang Co.: EPS of 0.62 RMB, PE of 15 for 2024 [2] - Yancoal Energy: EPS of 1.44 RMB, PE of 10 for 2024 [2] - China Shenhua: EPS of 2.95 RMB, PE of 14 for 2024 [2] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry: EPS of 2.31 RMB, PE of 9 for 2024 [2] - China Coal Energy: EPS of 1.46 RMB, PE of 9 for 2024 [2] - CGN Mining: EPS of 0.04 HKD, PE of 96 for 2024 [2] - Xinji Energy: EPS of 0.92 RMB, PE of 8 for 2024 [2] - Huaibei Mining: EPS of 1.80 RMB, PE of 7 for 2024 [2] - Lanhua Sci-Tech: EPS of 0.49 RMB, PE of 13 for 2024 [2] Market Dynamics - The coal sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.4%, outperforming the broader market indices [18][21]. - The report notes that the focus on high dividend yields and stable earnings among leading companies enhances their defensive value amid uncertain international conditions [12].