Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [6]. Core Views - The report suggests that coal prices are likely to end the year at their highest point due to increased regulatory checks on production, resilient demand, and potential capacity increases disrupting market expectations [4][11]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Coal Index was at 3,523.37 points, down 0.77%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.14 percentage points, ranking 27th among CITIC sectors [3][83]. Production and Supply - In July, the average daily output of raw coal in China hit a new low since July 2023, marking the first year-on-year decline since May 2024 [2]. - The report highlights that the National Energy Administration's recent measures to check overproduction are crucial for stabilizing coal prices, indicating long-term supply risks [2][3]. Price Trends - Coal prices saw a significant rebound after hitting a low of 618 CNY/ton in mid-June, driven by seasonal demand and regulatory news [3]. - As of August 15, the price of thermal coal at North Port was reported at 696 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 15 CNY/ton [9][39]. Demand Dynamics - The report notes that while downstream demand remains stable, the enthusiasm for purchasing coal has diminished due to rising prices, leading to a cautious approach from coal mines [9][40]. - The report emphasizes that the overall demand from downstream industries, including metallurgy and chemicals, remains stable despite fluctuations in coal prices [18]. Strategic Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong earnings potential, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, highlighting their resilience in the current market [12]. - It also suggests monitoring the impact of regulatory measures on production and the potential for increased imports of coal [11][12]. Inventory and Stock Levels - The report indicates that coal inventories at ports have been declining, with a total of 2,364 million tons reported as of August 15, down 102 million tons week-on-week [22]. - The report also notes that the overall inventory levels in the coal market remain low, which supports price stability [47].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 7 月统计局数据点评 ——原煤产量同比转负，旺季火电增幅扩大 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 展望后市：1）动力煤：随着高温天气继续推升日耗刺激电厂采购需求释放，及后续"金九银十" 非电旺季有望维持用电韧性，或为动力煤价持续上行带来期待，后续关注产地超产核查情况、 高温天气催化及终端需求释放持续性，考虑到当前煤炭红利板块依旧低配，股息率性价比较高， 防御配置价值凸显。2）焦煤：超产管控、阅兵前安监偏严及部分矿井自发实行"276"限产共同 使得供给整体偏紧，铁水高位震荡下终端用煤刚需有支撑但采购需求或阶段性放缓，短期焦煤 价格或趋稳运行，在政策预期催化及中报利空释放后有望博弈焦煤阶段性配置机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 请阅读最后评级 ...

| | | 年 2025 | | 月 | | 08 | 日 | 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究所： | | | | | | | | [Table_Title] 查超产影响下供给恢复偏慢， | | | 证券分析师： | | 陈晨 | S0350522110007 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | chenc09@ghzq.com.cn | | | | | 联系人 | ： | 张益 | S0350124100016 | | | | | 煤炭基本面旺季强势依旧 | | | | | | | | | zhangy33@ghzq.com.cn | | | | | 联系人 | ： | 徐萌 | S0350125070001 | | | | | | | | | | | | | xum02@ghzq.com.cn | | | ——煤炭开采行业周报 | | 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/08/15 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

2025 年 8 月 17 日 行业研究 新版《煤矿安全规程》发布，安监形势仍然趋严 ——煤炭开采行业周报（2025.8.11~2025.8.17） 要点 新版《煤矿安全规程》发布，安监形势仍然趋严。（1）2025 年 8 月 13 日， 国家矿山安全监察局举行新版《煤矿安全规程》专题新闻发布会，新版《煤矿 安全规程》共 34 章、777 条，与上版相比新增 56 条、实质性修改 353 条，可 以说是最彻底的一次修订；（2）煤矿安全监察司副司长朱林表示，此次修订致 力于解决煤矿企业安全管理上的"草台班子"问题；（3）截至本周，Mysteel 统计的 462 家动力煤矿山产能利用率仍低于去年同期水平，523 家炼焦煤矿山 开工率更是处于近 4 年同期最低水平，显示出当前安监形势仍然趋严。 本周港口煤价延续上涨，海外油、气价格回落。（1）本周（8.11-8.15）秦皇 岛港口动力煤平仓价（5500 大卡周度平均值）为 692 元/吨，环比+18 元/吨 （+2.61%）；（2）陕西榆林动力混煤坑口价格（5800 大卡）周度平均值为 547 元/吨，环比+4 元/吨（+0.74%）；（3）澳大利亚纽卡斯尔港动力煤 ...

足及五光 煤炭/ 1 - 7 - 7 - 1 - 2 - 2025 年 08 月 17 日 主产地供应偏紧, 旺季度同刻原 价预计仍将上涨;看好需求恢复 鳥煤价格再次回升 煤炭行业周报 (2025.8.9-2025.8.15) 寿研究报 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 (8621)23297818× shijy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资提示: 动力煤方面,截至 8 月 15 日,据中国煤炭市场网,秦皇岛港口 Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 559、643、698 元/吨,环比上涨 5、14、16 元/吨。供给端, 据中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 164.77 万吨，环比上周增加 2.83 万 吨、涨幅 1 ...

煤炭 2025 年 08 月 17 日 动力煤有望越过 700 剑指 750 元，煤炭布局稳扎稳打 ——行业周报 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《动力煤有望修复第二目标 700 元， 煤炭布局稳扎稳打 —行业周报》- 2025.8.10 《煤价上涨即将修复央企长协，煤炭 布局稳扎稳打—行业周报》-2025.8.3 《煤炭基本面利多持续，拐点右侧布 局 进 行 时 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》- 2025.7.28 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 本周要闻回顾：动力煤有望越过 700 元剑指 750 元 动力煤方面：动力煤价格持续反弹，截至 8 月 15 日，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 698 元/吨，今年上半年最低价格为 609 元，已累计上涨 14.61%。目前动力煤基本 面持续利多：从供给端来看，国内生产方面，主产区受查超产和降雨影响，叠加大 矿竞拍热情上涨，产地货源供应偏弱，截 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 钢铁限产，焦煤价格就一定回落吗？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期钢铁限产预期增强，市场普遍担忧钢铁限产往往会导致焦煤需求回落，从而抑制焦煤价格。 然而历史上来看并非如此：由于钢铁行政性限产往往引发钢厂利润快速修复，因此减弱了钢厂 对上游原材料的压价意愿，最终形成钢焦共振上涨格局，权益端也存在绝对收益；然而若钢铁 因亏损较多而导致自发性减产，则钢焦价格往往共振回落，权益端表现同样较差。展望 2025 年，当前钢厂利润依旧较优，自发性减产动力不足；若后续存行政性减产可能，有望使得钢焦 价格共振上涨，权益端也有望获得绝对收益。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579 ...

港口煤价突破 700 元/吨,神华复牌龙头价值不改 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 08 月 16 日 分析师: 杜冲 执业证书编号: S0740522040001 Email: duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 17.844.03 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 17.446.59 | 行业-市场走势对比 相关报告 1、《"276工作日"生产自律再现, 煤炭供给收缩预期强化》2025-08-12 《供给收紧预期加深,煤价短期 2. 震荡偏强》2025-08-10 《短期基本面偏强,煤价升势料 3. 延续》 2025-08-03 | 重占公司甚本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | | (元) | 2023A | ...

产量核查约束供给，非电需求韧性足 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 8 月 17 日 证券研究报告 行业研究-周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 | [Table_StockAndRank] 煤炭开采 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 高升：煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 李睿：煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 刘波： 煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 产量核查约束供给，非电需求韧性足 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 17 日 本期内容提要: [Table_Summary] 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the coal mining industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The coal production in July 2025 reached a new low since May 2001, indicating a "reversal, not a rebound" in the market [1] - The report emphasizes that while coal production is expected to grow in 2025, the growth rate is projected to narrow to approximately 1.4% [1] - The report highlights the importance of government policies in stabilizing coal supply and prices, suggesting that recent measures could lead to a price bottoming out [4][33] Production Summary - In July 2025, the industrial raw coal production was 380 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%, with a daily average production of 12.29 million tons [1][11] - For the first seven months of 2025, the total industrial raw coal production was 2.78 billion tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1][11] - The forecast for total thermal coal production in 2025 is around 3.88 billion tons, with a growth rate of 1.4% [1][11] Import Summary - In July 2025, coal imports were 35.609 million tons, a decrease of 22.9% compared to the same month last year [1][14] - For the first seven months of 2025, total coal imports were 257.305 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.0% [1][14] - The expected total thermal coal import level for 2025 is projected to be around 38 million tons, down 6.4% year-on-year [1][14] Demand Summary - In July 2025, the industrial power generation reached 926.7 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [2][17] - The growth rate of industrial thermal power generation was 4.3%, accelerating by 3.2 percentage points compared to June [2][17] - Solar power generation saw a significant increase of 28.7% year-on-year, with a notable acceleration in growth [2][17] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on major coal enterprises such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with strong performance elasticity like Lu'an Mining and Jinneng Holding [4][33] - The report also highlights the potential of companies undergoing asset restructuring, such as Anyuan Coal Industry, and those with promising future growth like Huayang Co. and Gansu Energy [4][33]