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煤炭行业周报:持续降温提振日耗,叠加年底安监趋严,预计煤价上涨-20260104
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2026-01-04 14:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" rating due to expected price increases driven by seasonal demand and stricter safety regulations [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that as of January 4, 2026, the spot prices for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port have increased, with Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 grades priced at 505, 593, and 682 RMB/ton respectively, reflecting week-on-week increases of 18, 14, and 6 RMB/ton [1]. - Supply-side constraints are noted, with a decrease in daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports, down to 1.3888 million tons, a reduction of 116,300 tons week-on-week [1]. - Demand is supported by ongoing cold weather, leading to improved daily consumption, which has risen to 1.6768 million tons, an increase of 85,600 tons week-on-week [1]. - The report anticipates that the combination of high consumption levels and reduced production from high-cost mines will support thermal coal prices moving forward [1]. - For coking coal, prices remain stable, with Shanxi Anze low-sulfur coking coal priced at 1600 RMB/ton as of January 4, 2026 [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The report discusses the implementation of a "benchmark price + floating price" mechanism for long-term contracts for thermal coal, with prices set at 540, 483, and 453 RMB/ton for different regions [7]. - It also mentions increased regulatory scrutiny on safety measures in coal mining, particularly during the winter heating season [7]. Price Trends - The report notes that the average daily consumption of coal has increased by 3.94% week-on-week, while the inventory of major power generation groups has decreased by 11.8% [3]. - The Bohai Rim coal inventory has decreased to 27.127 million tons, down 191,500 tons week-on-week, indicating a 6.59% drop [20]. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices have increased slightly to 60.75 USD/barrel, reflecting a 0.18% rise week-on-week [15]. - The report highlights the relationship between international oil prices and coal prices, noting a rise in the ratio of international oil prices to international coal prices [15]. Company Valuation - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, with various earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios forecasted for the coming years [32].
——煤炭开采行业周报:北港库存去化明显,港口煤价开启上涨-20260104
Guohai Securities· 2026-01-04 08:36
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Insights - The coal mining industry is experiencing a tightening in production and shipment, with downstream power plants showing an increase in daily consumption, leading to a marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics [2][12] - The report highlights that coal prices are expected to have support due to anticipated production reductions before the Spring Festival and potential temperature drops [12][63] - The long-term trend for coal prices is upward, driven by factors such as rising labor costs, increased safety and environmental investments, and higher taxation by local governments [5][66] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - As of December 31, the price of thermal coal at northern ports is 678 RMB/ton, with a weekly decrease of 3 RMB/ton but a daily increase of 8 RMB/ton [12][63] - Production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region decreased by 4.85 percentage points due to increased maintenance during the New Year holiday [12][63] - The daily consumption of the six major power plants increased by 39,000 tons week-on-week [12][63] - The inventory of the six major power plants decreased by 118,000 tons to 13.375 million tons, down 276,000 tons year-on-year [12][29] Coking Coal - The production capacity utilization for coking coal decreased by 3.14 percentage points to 79.5% [3][64] - The average customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu port decreased by 133 trucks week-on-week [3][64] - The price of main coking coal at ports remained stable at 1,740 RMB/ton as of December 31 [3][36] Coke - As of December 31, major steel mills have initiated the fourth round of price reductions for coke, indicating a weak market [3][44] - The average profit per ton of coke increased by 4 RMB/ton week-on-week [3][46] - The production rate of independent coking plants showed differentiation, with overall production rates declining slightly [3][47] Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy for their stable performance and high dividends [5][66] - Other notable stocks include Yanzhou Coal, Jinkong Coal, and Huayuan Co. for their growth potential and strong cash flow [5][67]
供需博弈加剧,煤价震荡延续
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2026-01-04 05:14
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the coal industry, including Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Huanneng, Yancoal, China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others [5]. Core Insights - The coal market is experiencing a supply-demand tug-of-war, leading to continued price fluctuations. Recent supply constraints and increasing terminal demand have resulted in a slight recovery in port coal prices. However, as coal mines resume production after the New Year, supply is expected to stabilize, while demand is anticipated to strengthen due to colder weather [8][9]. - The report suggests a strategy of buying on dips, focusing on companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, as well as those with significant production capacity growth potential. Key recommendations include China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy, and Yancoal, among others [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Business Tracking - The report emphasizes the importance of dividend policies and growth prospects for listed companies in the coal sector [13][15]. 2. Coal Price Tracking - The report tracks coal price indices, noting that the price of thermal coal at the port has shown a week-on-week increase of 6 CNY/ton, while year-on-year comparisons indicate a decline [9][10]. 3. Coal Inventory Tracking - As of December 31, 2025, the inventory at the Bohai Rim ports was reported at 28.366 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.43% [8]. 4. Downstream Performance of the Coal Industry - The report highlights that the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces reached 6.116 million tons, marking a 12.78% increase compared to the end of November [8][9]. 5. Weekly Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector has seen significant price movements, with individual stocks reflecting the overall market trends. The report provides detailed performance metrics for key companies [10][11].
煤炭行业2026年投资策略:十五五开局,供需重构,价值凸显
GF SECURITIES· 2025-12-31 04:54
Core Insights - The report indicates that the coal industry is entering a new cycle with a significant increase in value, driven by supply-demand restructuring and improved market conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Cycle Review - The coal price center has significantly increased during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to usher in a new cycle [4][15]. - The report reviews four cycles of the coal industry, highlighting that the current cycle may see a recovery from the bottom in the second half of 2025 [15][16]. - The average price of Qinhuangdao port 5500 kcal thermal coal reached 718 RMB/ton in the second half of 2025, reflecting a 6% increase compared to the first half [20][21]. Group 2: Supply Restructuring - Coal production from 2020 to 2024 increased by 23% to 4.78 billion tons, but growth is expected to slow significantly in 2025, with production growth in Xinjiang only at 2.6% [4][33]. - The report anticipates that coal production will enter a peak and decline phase, with growth rates expected to be between 0.5% and 1.0% from 2026 to 2028 [4][33]. - Regulatory policies are expected to impact coal production, potentially leading to negative growth in certain periods [4][33]. Group 3: Demand Restructuring - The demand for coal is expected to maintain resilience, with electricity consumption projected to grow at around 5% over the next five years, driven by new manufacturing and increased electrification [4][33]. - The report notes that while coal consumption is expected to decline in the short term due to electricity demand pressures, it is likely to recover as macroeconomic policies strengthen in 2026 [4][33]. - Chemical demand is projected to grow at approximately 5%, while declines in steel and construction materials are expected to narrow [4][33]. Group 4: Global and Commodity Perspectives - The report highlights that global coal production is expected to decline, while Southeast Asian demand is projected to grow by 3-5% from 2025 to 2030 [4][33]. - Compared to other commodities, coal has shown weaker performance, with the copper-coal ratio and gold-coal ratio at historical highs [4][33]. - The coal industry's share of industrial profits has dropped to historical lows, while the electricity sector's profit share has reached a high of 10% [4][33]. Group 5: Overall Viewpoint - The report concludes that the coal price center is expected to rise to around 750 RMB/ton in 2026, with leading companies offering dividend yields of 4-6% [4][33]. - Key companies identified include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal, which are expected to maintain stable profitability [4][33]. - The report emphasizes that after a pessimistic outlook on coal prices is reversed, valuation elasticity is likely to become apparent [4][33].
陕西煤业股价跌1.11%,华泰柏瑞基金旗下1只基金位居十大流通股东,持有6605.5万股浮亏损失1585.32万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-31 02:52
12月31日,陕西煤业跌1.11%,截至发稿,报21.32元/股,成交1.58亿元,换手率0.08%,总市值2066.97 亿元。 截至发稿,柳军累计任职时间16年215天,现任基金资产总规模5425.04亿元,任职期间最佳基金回报 153.27%, 任职期间最差基金回报-45.64%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示,华泰柏瑞基金旗下1只基金重仓陕西煤业。现金流ETF全指(563390)三季度增持22.81万 股,持有股数80.66万股,占基金净值比例为2.86%,位居第十大重仓股。根据测算,今日浮亏损失约 19.36万元。 现金流ETF全指(563390)成立日期2025年4月23日,最新规模5.64亿。成立以来收益27.15%。 现金流ETF全指(563390)基金经理为胡亦清。 资料显示,陕西煤业股份有限公司位于陕西省西安市高新区锦业一路2号,成立日期2008年12月23日, 上市日期2014年1月28日,公司主营业务涉及煤炭开采、洗选、运输、销售以及生产服务等业务。主营 业务收入构成为:自产煤55.83%,其中:原选煤39.02%,贸易煤31.85%,其中:洗煤16.81%,电力 8.69%,其他3 ...
陕西煤业股价跌1.01%,人保资产旗下1只基金重仓,持有1.45万股浮亏损失3190元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-30 01:57
Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Shaanxi Coal Industry's stock price has decreased by 1.01%, currently trading at 21.46 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 208.055 billion CNY [1] - Shaanxi Coal Industry Co., Ltd. is located in Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, and was established on December 23, 2008, with its listing date on January 28, 2014. The company primarily engages in coal mining, washing, transportation, sales, and production services [1] - The revenue composition of Shaanxi Coal includes self-produced coal at 55.83%, with raw selected coal at 39.02%, traded coal at 31.85%, washed coal at 16.81%, electricity at 8.69%, other at 3.26%, and transportation at 0.37% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major fund holdings, one fund under People's Insurance Asset holds Shaanxi Coal Industry as a top ten position. The fund, People's Insurance Dual Benefit Mixed A (004988), held 14,500 shares in the third quarter, accounting for 0.5% of the fund's net value [2] - The current scale of People's Insurance Dual Benefit Mixed A is 56.759 million CNY, with a year-to-date return of 1.02%, ranking 7721 out of 8087 in its category, and a one-year return of 0.82%, ranking 7732 out of 8085 [2] - The fund manager, Hu Qiongyu, has a tenure of 7 years and 215 days, with the fund's total asset scale at 342 million CNY. The best return during his tenure is 16.03%, while the worst is -11.58% [3]
申万宏源证券晨会报告-20251230
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-30 00:45
Group 1: Key Insights on Xingfu Electronics - The company is backed by Xingfa Group, a leading player in the phosphate chemical and fine chemical industry, ensuring strong supply chain support [8] - It focuses on semiconductor applications, with a complete wet electronic chemical product system, including 60,000 tons of electronic-grade phosphoric acid and 100,000 tons of electronic-grade sulfuric acid, leading the domestic market [8] - The company aims to become a world-class electronic materials enterprise, with ongoing internationalization and diversification strategies [8] Group 2: Key Insights on JD Industrial - JD Industrial is a leading provider of industrial supply chain technology and services in China, with a projected revenue of 20.398 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit of 909 million yuan for 2024 [10] - The company has established a comprehensive digital infrastructure for supply chain management, covering 80 product categories and serving over 11,100 key enterprise clients [10] - The industrial supply chain market in China is vast, with a size of 11.4 trillion yuan in 2024, and JD Industrial holds a market share of 4.1% in the industrial supply chain technology and services market [10] Group 3: Insights on the Coal Industry - The coal industry is experiencing a restructuring due to stricter safety regulations, with a cumulative coal production of 4.402 billion tons from January to November, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [14] - The demand for coal remains stable, with a projected increase in coal consumption in the chemical industry, and the overall coal demand is expected to grow slightly [14] - Investment recommendations include stable high-dividend stocks like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as growth stocks such as TBEA and Huaihe Energy [14] Group 4: Insights on MEMS Sensor Industry - The company is a leading player in high-performance MEMS inertial sensors, with a revenue and net profit CAGR exceeding 38% from 2019 to 2024 [15] - The MEMS technology market is expanding, with applications in consumer electronics, automotive, industrial, and aerospace sectors [16] - The company is actively pursuing new market opportunities, including partnerships in autonomous driving and low-altitude aviation [16] Group 5: Insights on Automotive Industry - The automotive market is seeing a shift towards intelligent and high-end vehicles, with a focus on new energy vehicles and the potential for significant growth in the second-hand car market [24] - Recent data indicates a 9% month-on-month increase in retail sales of passenger vehicles, despite a year-on-year decline [26] - Investment recommendations include companies with strong alpha potential and those benefiting from the ongoing reforms in state-owned enterprises [27]
陕西煤业等成立支付公司,注册资本2亿
Qi Cha Cha· 2025-12-29 03:03
企查查APP显示,近日,陕西西煤支付有限公司成立,注册资本2亿元,经营范围包含:非银行支付业 务;第二类增值电信业务等。企查查股权穿透显示,该公司由陕西煤业(601225)等共同持股。 (原标题:陕西煤业等成立支付公司,注册资本2亿) ...
陕西煤业涨2.04%,成交额3.01亿元,主力资金净流入2230.80万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-29 02:54
Core Viewpoint - Shaanxi Coal Industry's stock price has shown slight fluctuations, with a recent increase of 2.04%, and the company is experiencing a mixed financial performance in terms of revenue and profit [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of December 29, Shaanxi Coal's stock price is 22.02 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 3.01 billion CNY and a market capitalization of 213.48 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 0.17%, with a 0.14% rise over the last five trading days, a 3.80% decline over the last 20 days, and an 8.37% increase over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Shaanxi Coal reported a revenue of 118.08 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 5.86%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.71 billion CNY, down 20.26% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 81.65 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 47.33 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders has increased to 105,000, a rise of 2.07%, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 2.02% to 92,312 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, China Securities Finance Corporation holds 195 million shares, unchanged from the previous period, while Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited has reduced its holdings by 10.7 million shares to 133 million shares [3].
陕西煤业等成立支付公司,注册资本2亿元
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-12-29 02:43
人民财讯12月29日电,企查查APP显示,近日,陕西西煤支付有限公司成立,注册资本2亿元,经营范 围包含:非银行支付业务;第二类增值电信业务等。企查查股权穿透显示,该公司由陕西煤业 (601225)等共同持股。 ...