格隆汇1月13日｜A股市场保险股集体走强，其中，中国人寿涨超4%，新华保险、中国人保涨超3%，中 国太保、中国平安涨近3%。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ | 代码 | 名称 | . | 涨幅%↓ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601628 | 中国人寿 | 1 | 4.41 | 14590亿 | 13.45 | | 601336 | 新华保险 | + | 3.76 | 2591亿 | 19.18 | | 601319 | 中国人保 | 1 | 3.27 | 4475亿 | 13.07 | | 601601 | 中国太保 | 安 | 2.97 | 4496亿 | 11.50 | | 601318 | 中国平安 | 1 | 2.77 | 12570亿 | 1.49 | ...

1月13日金融一线消息，保险板块短线拉升，中国人保、新华保险、中国人寿、中国平安均涨超2%。 责任编辑：王馨茹 1月13日金融一线消息，保险板块短线拉升，中国人保、新华保险、中国人寿、中国平安均涨超2%。 责任编辑：王馨茹 ...

保险股接下来怎么看？20260112 摘要 从负债端来看，2025 年底至 2026 年初的数据表明，预收预录数据质量较好， 大部分转化为实收。银行存款利率下降导致居民资金流向保险产品，这使得传 统险与分红险具有吸引力。预计 2026 年全年保费增速将呈现前高后低态势， 上半年尤其是一季度增速较高，而三季度可能面临一定压力。 从资产端来看， 利率上行趋势对保险公司固收类投资有利，可以缓解利差损风险。目前十年国 债收益率已上升至 1.9%左右，相比去年增加了 30 个 BP。此外，权益类资产 占比约 15.5%，若股票市场持续走强，将进一步提升保险公司收益。 保险股估值仍处低位，中国太保和中国平安 2026 年 P/EV 分别约为 0.7 倍和 0.8 倍，内涵价值快速增长，建议投资者继续持有或适度加仓，但 需关注市场波动。 中国人寿 A 股估值高于中国太保和平安，因其内涵价值增长较快，但更 推荐港股中国人寿，因其相对于 A 股有明显折价。 2025 年底至 2026 年初预收预录数据质量较好，银行存款利率下降导 致资金流向保险产品，预计 2026 年全年保费增速前高后低，一季度增 速较高，三季度或有压力。 利 ...

本文来自格隆汇专栏：国金证券研究所；作者：舒思勤 黄佳慧 预计26年上市险企新单保费将实现双位数增长，银保渠道是主驱力。展望2026年，预计个险渠道保持稳健增长，银保渠 道直接受益于存款搬家，客户优势和账户优势明显，叠加大型险企开拓银保市场的积极性和优势显著，预计仍将延续较 好增长，市占率继续提升。在银保增长的主驱动下，预计大型险企的2026年新单保费将实现双位数增长；规模增长将摊 薄固定成本，这在银保渠道将更为显著，带来整体盈利提升。 自2020年起头部险企开始重新重视银保渠道，从弥补规模到追求价值，市占率随积极性同步抬升且将延续。个险渠道自 2018年开始进入深度调整期，保险公司为转移业务压力重新发力银保渠道，弥补规模保费。自2020年开始，增额终身寿 热销驱动银保渠道期缴保费增长，且其价值率比趸交产品高，大型险企加大银保渠道发展力度，2023年"老七家"银保规 保新单市占率较2019年提升15.6pct至23.8%。2023年8月银保渠道报行合一开始推行，费用成本大幅下降驱动价值率大幅 提升，叠加"1+3"网点限制的放开，头部公司纷纷大力开拓银保渠道，在资源协同、品牌、服务等优势加持下，头部市 占率提升 ...

Group 1 - The insurance sector experienced a decline of 0.47% on January 12, with China Pacific Insurance leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4165.29, up 1.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14366.91, up 1.75% [1] - Key individual stock performances included China Life Insurance up 1.29% to 49.44, while China Pacific Insurance fell 2.41% to 45.38 [1] Group 2 - The insurance sector saw a net outflow of 2.661 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 1.387 billion yuan [1] - Specific stock fund flows indicated that China Life Insurance had a net outflow of 89.416 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - China Pacific Insurance experienced a net outflow of 114 million yuan from institutional investors, with a retail net inflow of 107 million yuan [2]

Group 1 - The current market uptrend is supported by long-term capital inflows and strong performance from the insurance sector, with the A500 ETF seeing significant net inflows of nearly 100 billion RMB in December 2025, contributing to market buoyancy [4][8][12] - The "spring rally" is characterized by a seasonal pattern in the A-share market, typically occurring from late December to the first quarter, driven by macroeconomic policies, liquidity conditions, and the timing of financial reports [5][22][24] - Historical data from 2016 to 2025 indicates that the spring rally usually starts in late January and lasts about 30 trading days, with an average index increase of approximately 15% [24][25][31] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment for 2026 is expected to remain in a weak recovery phase, with structural support for technology-related sectors likely to continue, as policies emphasize growth and technological advancement [33][37][38] - The transition from old to new economic drivers is showing initial results, with several high-tech companies moving from policy-driven growth to performance validation, which is crucial for sustained investment confidence [40][41][45] - The market is likely to experience active trading with structural opportunities rather than a broad-based rally, as long-term capital and policy support create a conducive environment for thematic investments [48][49][50] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest prioritizing small-cap growth and innovation-driven sectors, as these areas are expected to benefit from improved liquidity and risk appetite [57][58] - The strategy should focus on short-term trend tracking and rapid rotation among themes, as the market dynamics are driven more by policy and industry expectations than by fundamental improvements [60][61] - The securities and financial technology sectors are expected to benefit from increased trading volumes and active leverage, while the insurance sector is positioned for long-term growth due to favorable market conditions and improved investment returns [63][64]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating, recommending continued active investment in the insurance sector due to expected double-digit growth in new premiums driven by the bancassurance channel [5]. Core Insights - The insurance industry is projected to achieve double-digit growth in new premiums by 2026, primarily driven by the bancassurance channel, which benefits from the migration of deposits and the competitive advantages of large insurance companies [1][26]. - The bancassurance channel has seen a significant increase in market share, with the "old seven" insurance companies' new premium market share rising from 8.2% in 2019 to 23.8% in 2023, and expected to reach 26.0% in 2024 [2][22]. - A survey of 88 frontline bank wealth managers indicates that a substantial portion of household deposits will mature in 2026, with expectations that many will not be renewed, leading to a shift towards insurance products [3][35]. - The demographic of clients with maturing deposits is predominantly older, with a lower risk appetite, making insurance products a preferred option for reallocating funds [4][40]. - The report highlights that the bancassurance channel's growth will significantly enhance the overall profitability of large insurance companies by spreading fixed costs over a larger premium base [1][26]. Summary by Sections Bancassurance Channel - The bancassurance channel is identified as the main driver of value growth in the insurance industry for 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.2% from 2019 to 2023 [12]. - The report notes that the shift in focus from individual insurance channels to bancassurance began in 2020, driven by the need to compensate for declining individual premium growth [2][12]. Bank Wealth Manager Survey Analysis - The survey indicates that a significant portion of maturing deposits will not be renewed, with expectations that 50% of clients will have deposits maturing in the 10%-30% and 30%-50% ranges [3][35]. - Wealth managers believe that the most acceptable financial products for clients will be bank wealth management and insurance, with insurance ranking second [4][40]. Projections for 2026 - The report estimates that the new premium growth rate for the bancassurance channel will exceed 25% in 2026, with expected incremental funds of 3,057 billion in January, 5,094 billion in Q1, and 11,150 billion for the entire year [5][62]. - The anticipated growth is attributed to the large volume of maturing deposits and the expected shift towards insurance products due to lower renewal rates for traditional bank deposits [60].

蓝鲸新闻1月9日讯（记者 陈晓娟）2025年，保险业继续延续"严监管"态势。记者不完全统计，2025 年，监管针对保险业开出约2300张罚单，罚款总额累计约4.07亿元。主要涉及给予合同以外利益、财务 数据不真实、虚构业务套取资金等违规行为。从处罚金额来看，大额罚单频现，人保财险、泰康在线领 千万级罚单，大地财险、北大方正人寿、天安财险等机构亦被罚超过200万元。 此外，伴随着监管问责机制的持续细化与强化，"双罚制"成为常态，个人处罚力度加码。记者梳理统 计，年内约警告2268人次，罚款2239人次，处罚金额累计8376万元，取消任职资格共计21人次，禁止从 事保险业共计119人次，其中49人被终身禁入保险行业，行业合规监管正迈向重质效、严问责阶段。 业内专家指出，当前监管不仅注重处罚的覆盖面，更侧重于针对核心经营主体与重点违规领域的深度打 击，通过高额罚金倒逼机构和管理层摒弃粗放式经营，强化合规意识。 2300余张罚单合计罚没超4亿 蓝鲸新闻记者根据公开数据不完全统计，2025年，监管针对保险业开出约2300张罚单，涉及保险公司及 分支机构约1381家，责任人约2364人次，罚款总额累计约4.07亿元。对比 ...

2025 年 12 月 4 日至 2026 年 1 月 9 日，保险 II(申万)指数累计上涨 19.5%，WIND 香港保险指数累计上涨 13.5%。 分个股来看，A 股中，中国太保以 32.1%的累计涨幅领涨，其它 A 股保险股累计涨幅从高到低分别为：新华 保险+25.4%、中国人保+18.0%、中国平安+17.8%、中国人寿+12.5%。H 股中，新华保险以 30.9%的累计涨幅领 涨，其它 H 股保险股累计涨幅从高到低分别为：中国平安+23.6%、中国太保+21.7%、中国人寿+17.6%、众安在 线+15.2%、中国人保+7.4%、友邦保险+6.7%、中国财险-2.5%。 证券研究报告|行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 11 日 [Table_Title] 资负两端全面改善，保险迎开年行情 [Table_Title2] 保险 II 行业评级: 推荐 [Table_Summary] 事件概述: 分析与判断: 2026 年开门红数据超预期，是保险股本轮上涨的直接催化。据今日保披露，部分头部险企仅 2026 年元旦 三天累计新单规模同比增幅超 70%。叠加去年同期低基数，头部 ...

Regulatory Dynamics - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has provided the most authoritative explanation for the "reporting and operation integration" of non-auto insurance [6] - The Guangdong Financial Regulatory Bureau is promoting the establishment of private equity securities investment funds by insurance companies in Guangdong [11] - The Jiangxi government supports insurance institutions in enhancing risk reduction service levels and providing comprehensive insurance solutions for technology-based enterprises [14] Company Dynamics - Ping An Life has made its fourth stake increase in China Merchants Bank H-shares, reaching a holding ratio of over 20% [18] - Ping An Life has also increased its stake in Agricultural Bank of China H-shares to over 20% [19] - Sunshine Life plans to reduce its stake in Huakang Clean by 3% [22] - China Life has reported over 62.24 million claims in 2025, with total payouts exceeding 100.4 billion [32] - New China Life reported a maximum payout of 10.5 million in 2025 [33] - People's Insurance Company of China reported over 2 billion claims in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of over 10% [36] Industry Dynamics - The short-term large-denomination deposit rates have entered the "0" range, with experts predicting a continued downward trend [47] - Insurance stocks have collectively surged, with Ping An, New China Life, and China Pacific Insurance reaching historical highs [49][50] - The issuance scale of insurance companies' bonds has exceeded 100 billion for three consecutive years [54] - 93.4% of combination-type insurance asset management products achieved positive returns in 2025 [55] - The insurance industry has entered a new cycle of predetermined interest rates, with significant changes in pricing logic [56]