非银金融 相关研究报告 《引导中长期超额考核，非银板块有 望增配—行业周报》-2025.5.18 《核心考核转向投资者回报，公募行 业马太效应强化—《推动公募基金高 质量发展行动方案》学习》-2025.5.11 《稳股市政策加码，寻找结构性机会 —非银金融行业 2025年度中期投资策 略》-2025.5.8 港股市场资产端扩容，首批浮动管理费产品亮相 ——行业周报 高超（分析师） 卢崑（分析师） gaochao1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520050001 lukun@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040002 周观点：港股市场资产端扩容，首批浮动管理费产品亮相 近期多家A股龙头公司登陆H股上市，5月20日和5月23日，宁德时代和恒瑞医药 两家不同行业的龙头公司先后正式登陆港股。5月22日证监会发行监管司司长严 伯进表示，证监会将持续优化科技企业境内上市的环境，会实施更加灵活精准的 新股发行逆周期调节机制，支持优质红筹科技企业回归境内上市。A股龙头公司 积极赴港上市和优质中概股回流港股市场，有望带动港股市场资产端扩容，提升 港股市场交易活跃度，推荐持续受益于港股市场活跃度提升和IP ...

探索开展前沿研究，提升气候专业能力。 气候风险量化评估是目前全球金融行业面临的重要挑 战。公司充分结合国内外最新研究成果，开展气候情景分析与压力测试项目，通过整合本土气 候数据创新研发适用于中国保险机构的气候风险评估模型，完成台风、暴雨洪涝等灾害对公司 业务组合影响的定量测算，为制定科学风险管控策略提供依据。 聚焦新能源、农险等重点领 域，形成相关风险管理制度及措施 ， 加强关键环节管控 。持续拓展"风险雷达"系统功能，加 强风险勘查与灾害预警，提升公司智能化风险管控能力。 首次发布运营碳排放目标，打造低碳运营新模式。中国太保 积 极响应国家双碳战略，在对标 领先同业实践以及系统分析现有减排潜力的基础上，科学制定减排计划， 明确 集团整体 1,2 2028年运营碳排放总量较2023年下降20% 的量化目标 ， 保障碳减排工作有序推进。持续 完善运营碳排放管理体系，形成《运营碳盘查管理制度》，明确碳盘查流程规范，提升碳数据 质量。加强节能减排管理，通过采用先进节能技术、推进智能化节能改造、加强数据中心节能 等多项措施，有效降低公司运营碳排放。 加强对外交流合作，助力全球气候治理。中国太保 积极参与全球气候行动， ...

Core Insights - The overall profit growth of listed insurance companies in Q1 2025 shows significant divergence, primarily influenced by base effect differences, while the liability side remains stable. The equity market is identified as a critical factor for performance, with regulatory policies fostering a recovery in market confidence, presenting opportunities in the non-bank sector [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q1 2025 net profit on a comparable basis increased by 1.4% year-on-year, with non-annualized ROE slightly declining from 4.2% in Q1 2024 to 4.0% in Q1 2025, which is better than previously pessimistic expectations [1] - The average net assets attributable to shareholders of A-share listed insurance companies remained flat compared to the beginning of the year, with life insurance showing the highest growth at 4.5%, while Xinhua reported a decline of 17.0% [1] - The ratio of other comprehensive income to net profit was -98.0%, with life insurance having the smallest difference at -20.9% [1] - Underwriting profit in Q1 2025 grew by 27.3% year-on-year, mainly due to a low base in the same period last year, with life insurance performing well and property insurance seeing a significant increase in underwriting profit [1] - The average annualized net investment return rate for listed insurance companies in Q1 2025 was 3.08%, slightly down from 3.19% in Q1 2024, while the average annualized total investment return rate was 4.06%, down from 4.08% [1] Group 2: Life Insurance Business - The average NBV growth rate for listed insurance companies in Q1 2025 was approximately 20%, with value rate improvement being the core reason [2] - NBV year-on-year growth rates from high to low were: Xinhua (67.9%), Ping An (34.9%), PICC (31.5%), Taikang (11.3%), and China Life (4.8%) [2] - New single premium growth showed significant divergence, with individual insurance affected by the "opening red" period, while the structure of bank insurance new single premiums improved [2] - The improvement in value rates is attributed to: 1) a reduction in scheduled interest rates leading to a stable decline in overall liability costs; 2) optimization of product and term structures; 3) active cost reduction and efficiency enhancement [2] Group 3: Property Insurance Business - In Q1 2025, listed insurance companies achieved property insurance service revenue of 249.635 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, with a significant decrease in the combined underwriting cost ratio to 95.7%, down 2.8 percentage points [3] - Underwriting profit under the new standards reached 10.653 billion yuan, nearly doubling year-on-year, primarily due to a low base in the previous year and challenges from adverse weather conditions [3] - The total premium income from auto insurance grew by 3.2% year-on-year, with effective cost control contributing to improved underwriting profits [3] - Data from the Ministry of Emergency Management indicated that natural disasters in Q1 2025 primarily involved geological disasters, with direct economic losses of approximately 10.16 billion yuan, significantly lower than 23.76 billion yuan in Q1 2024, leading to improved claims ratios, especially in February [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the insurance industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2][6]. Core Insights - The insurance industry experienced steady growth in fund utilization, with a net increase of over 1.6 trillion yuan in Q1 2025, bringing the total fund utilization balance to 34.93 trillion yuan, a 5.0% increase from the beginning of the year [5][6]. - The allocation of funds has shifted, with bonds and stocks reaching their highest proportions in recent years, highlighting a more pronounced "barbell" structure in investment strategy [6]. - The report notes a significant increase in equity investments, with insurance companies actively increasing their positions in the transportation sector and continuing to engage in shareholding activities primarily in the banking and public utility sectors [6][15]. Summary by Sections Fund Utilization - As of Q1 2025, the balance of funds utilized by insurance companies was 34.93 trillion yuan, with life insurance companies holding 31.38 trillion yuan (89.8% of the total) and property insurance companies holding 2.27 trillion yuan (6.7% of the total) [5][6]. - The bond allocation reached 16.97 trillion yuan, accounting for 50.4% of total investments, the highest level in recent years, driven by a strategic increase in long-term bond investments [6]. - The stock balance increased to 2.82 trillion yuan, representing 8.4% of total investments, also the highest level in recent years, with a net increase of 389.3 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [6]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of long-duration bonds and high-dividend stocks as key components for insurance companies' revenue stability [6]. - The investment strategy is diversifying, with a cautious increase in equity allocation expected, alongside a richer variety of investment products [6]. Sector Focus - The top sectors for insurance equity investments include banking (45.8%), transportation (10.8%), real estate (7.4%), telecommunications (6.9%), and public utilities (6.1%) [10][11]. - The report highlights a trend of insurance companies increasing their stakes in high-dividend stocks, which provide stable returns and lower risk, aligning with long-term strategic investment goals [6][15]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks such as China Taiping and China Ping An, while suggesting to pay attention to New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and China Life Insurance for their long-term investment value [6].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is undergoing a transformation driven by regulatory reforms and changing consumer demands, as highlighted by the popular drama "The Good Life," which reflects both the growth and challenges faced by the sector [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Challenges and Reforms - The rapid expansion of the insurance agent workforce has led to issues such as inflated manpower and inadequate training, resulting in a lack of trust in insurance sales [3][4]. - The recent notification from the financial regulatory authority aims to reform the personal marketing system in the insurance industry, emphasizing the need for better regulation and professionalization of agents [2][4]. - The "New National Ten Articles" issued by the State Council calls for accelerated marketing system reforms to enhance the quality and sustainability of the insurance sector [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Innovations - Major insurance companies are launching initiatives to attract high-quality agents, reflecting a competitive landscape focused on improving service quality and agent professionalism [4][5]. - The industry is shifting from a focus on scale to value creation, with companies like China Pacific Insurance and Taikang Insurance implementing strategies to address aging populations and diversify service offerings [6][7]. - Digital transformation is becoming a key driver for precision in product innovation and risk management, utilizing technologies like AI and IoT for better underwriting and claims processes [5][6]. Group 3: Consumer Engagement and Education - There is a growing recognition of the need for better public understanding of insurance as a risk management tool, which is essential for enhancing consumer trust and satisfaction [7]. - The narrative in "The Good Life" illustrates the importance of empathy and professionalism in insurance sales, aligning with the industry's goal of putting customers at the center of its operations [2][7]. - The industry's transition towards a more refined management approach aims to improve customer experiences and restore the fundamental purpose of insurance as a safety net [7].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Insurance Sector**: In Q1 2025, net profits for major insurers like China Ping An and China Taiping fell by 26% and 18% respectively, primarily due to declines in the bond market and equity market volatility. Conversely, PICC and China Life saw net profit growth of approximately 40%, with Xinhua also reporting positive growth, benefiting from favorable bond market and Hong Kong stock allocations [1][2]. - **Brokerage Sector**: The overall performance of 39 brokerages in Q1 2025 met expectations, with a 53% year-on-year increase in net profit, driven by a low base from the previous year and significant improvements in trading volume, which rose nearly 80% year-on-year. The number of new accounts opened increased by 32%, contributing significantly to retail business [1][3]. - **Public Fund Regulations**: New regulations for public funds shift the focus from short-term returns to long-term investor performance, potentially restoring trust and benefiting the industry's long-term development. This may exacerbate the "Matthew Effect," favoring leading fund companies [4]. - **Non-Banking Financial Sector**: The non-banking financial sector is significantly under-allocated, with only 1% of active equity funds invested compared to a standard of 6.5%. This indicates a potential recovery volume of approximately 150 billion, suggesting a sustained reallocation towards benchmark stocks, especially large-cap stocks [5][6]. Key Insights - **Brokerage Performance**: The brokerage sector is expected to see a 50% year-on-year growth in Q1 2025, with a forecasted 40% growth for the mid-year report and an overall annual growth expectation of around 25%. Current valuations remain low, with a focus on brokerages with strong retail advantages such as Guosen Securities, Huatai Securities, and GF Securities [7]. - **Insurance Recommendations**: Due to weak marginal improvements in the insurance sector, it is recommended to focus on undervalued stocks like China Taiping and China Ping An, as well as high dividend yield stocks like Jiangsu Jinzu [8]. - **Banking Sector Performance**: In Q1 2025, 42 listed banks reported a revenue decline of 1.7% and a net profit decline of 1.2%. The overall loan volume is expected to remain stable compared to 2024, with a slight narrowing of interest margins anticipated [9][14]. - **Real Estate Sector**: The real estate industry experienced a 7.5% revenue decline in Q1 2025, with a net profit loss of 10 billion yuan. The top 100 real estate companies saw a 30% drop in sales, although the decline was less severe than in previous periods. Companies with strong fundamentals in first-tier and strong second-tier cities are viewed positively [15][18]. Additional Considerations - **Market Dynamics**: The new public fund regulations may lead to a decrease in fees for banks, brokerages, and third-party sales agencies, impacting their revenues negatively but within expected limits [4]. - **Investment Strategy**: The recommendation for banks includes focusing on stable dividend strategies, with a preference for banks like CITIC Bank and Agricultural Bank of China, as well as regional banks benefiting from recovering demand from small and micro enterprises [14]. - **Future Outlook for Real Estate**: The real estate sector is expected to see a recovery in demand, particularly in first-tier and strong second-tier cities, with a focus on companies like Binjiang Group and China Merchants Shekou [18].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Index Non-Bank Financial Theme Index has shown significant growth, with a 13.63% increase over the past month and a 12.54% increase year-to-date, reflecting strong performance in the non-bank financial sector within the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1][2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Index Non-Bank Financial Theme Index rose by 0.65% to 3292.09 points, with a trading volume of 13.164 billion yuan [1]. - Over the last three months, the index has increased by 9.80% [1]. - The index was established on November 14, 2014, with a base point of 3000.0 [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The index includes up to 50 listed companies that meet the non-bank financial theme criteria from the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1]. - The top ten weighted companies in the index are: Hong Kong Exchanges (17.71%), AIA Group (15.97%), Ping An Insurance (13.53%), China Life Insurance (7.95%), China Pacific Insurance (7.13%), People's Insurance Group of China (6.03%), China Taiping Insurance (5.39%), New China Life Insurance (5.13%), CITIC Securities (2.41%), and China Taiping (2.6%) [1]. - The index's holdings are entirely focused on the financial sector, with a 100% allocation [2]. Group 3: Index Adjustment Mechanism - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2]. - In special circumstances, the index may undergo temporary adjustments, such as when a sample company is delisted or when new companies meet the criteria for inclusion [2].

Core Points - The meeting of China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co., Ltd. is scheduled for June 11, 2025, to discuss various proposals including the annual reports and profit distribution plans [1] - The Supervisory Board has completed its restructuring and emphasized the importance of independent supervision to enhance corporate governance [2][4] - The company reported a net profit of 44.96 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024, with a proposed cash dividend of 1.08 yuan per share, totaling approximately 10.39 billion yuan [12][13] Group 1: Meeting Agenda and Proposals - The meeting will cover the review of the Board of Directors' report, Supervisory Board report, annual financial statements, and profit distribution proposals [1] - The company aims to enhance the stability and predictability of its profit distribution policy in response to regulatory changes [12] Group 2: Supervisory Board Activities - The Supervisory Board conducted 39 proposals and reviewed 27 reports, ensuring compliance and effective decision-making [2][4] - The board emphasized the importance of risk management and compliance in its supervisory role [4][5] Group 3: Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 44.96 billion yuan for 2024, with a net profit of 10.82 billion yuan on the parent company's financial statements [12][13] - The proposed cash dividend distribution is based on operational profit, ensuring compliance with solvency requirements [13] Group 4: Independent Directors and Governance - The company is nominating Huang Jinwen as an independent director to ensure continuity in governance [19][20] - The independent directors have been actively participating in meetings and providing objective opinions to protect the interests of shareholders [28][29]

Core Viewpoint - China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co., Ltd. is set to hold its 2024 Annual General Meeting on June 11, 2025, with a combination of on-site and online voting options available for shareholders [1][2]. Meeting Details - The meeting will take place on June 11, 2025, at 14:00 at the company's headquarters in Shanghai [2][5]. - Voting will be conducted through the Shanghai Stock Exchange's network voting system, with specific time slots for both trading and internet voting [1][2]. Agenda Items - The agenda includes several non-cumulative voting proposals, such as the approval of the 2024 Board Report, Supervisory Board Report, Annual Report, Financial Settlement Report, and profit distribution policy [2][9]. - Additional proposals include the appointment of the auditing firm for 2025, authorization for share repurchase, and election of an independent director [3][9]. Voting Procedures - Shareholders can vote through multiple accounts but must ensure that their votes are consistent across all accounts [4][5]. - The voting process will adhere to the regulations set forth by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and relevant guidelines for cross-border investors [2][4]. Attendance and Registration - Shareholders must register to attend the meeting, with specific requirements for both A and H shareholders [6][8]. - The registration period for on-site attendance is from 13:15 to 13:45 on the day of the meeting [8].

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