2026 年 1 月 25 日 行业研究 7 个维度拆解 2025 理财年报 ——《中国银行业理财市场年度报告（2025 年）》点评 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378031 分析师：董文欣 执业证书编号：S0930521090001 010-57378035 dongwx@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 9 个热点问题看理财新叙事——银行理财 2025 年回顾与 2026 年展望 2026-1-13 公募销售新规落地，理财配置如何演变？— 《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规 定》点评 2026-1-3 如何看待理财三季报的 3 个"异象"？—— 《中国银行业理财市场季度报告（2025 年三 季度）》点评 2025-10-24 2Q 平稳收官，下半年还有哪些关注点？—— 《中国银行业理财市场半年报告（2025 年 上）》点评 2025-7-27 震荡中前行——《中国银行业理财市场季度 报告（2025 年一季度）》点评 2025-4-24 六个视角看 2024 理财年报——《中国银行业 理 ...

【光大证券：近期以稳为主 但仍应持股过节】智通财经1月25日电，光大证券研报表示，保持稳健，持 股过节。参考之前的市场行情，认为春节前市场将会保持震荡，难以保持稳定的趋势，这主要与春节之 前投资者交易热度有所下行，以及微观流动性短期趋紧有关。从历史情况来看，春节前20个交易日，主 要指数上涨概率不足50%。预计春节之后市场将会迎来新一轮上行动力，春节后20个交易日主要指数上 行概率与平均涨幅均较高。因此建议投资者近期以稳为主，但仍应持股过节。行业方面，关注电子、电 力设备、有色金属等。若1月市场风格为成长，五维行业比较框架打分靠前的行业分别为电子、电力设 备、通信、有色金属、汽车、国防军工；若1月份市场风格为防御，五维行业比较框架打分靠前的行业 分别为非银金融、电子、有色金属、电力设备、汽车、交通运输等。两种风格假设下，得分靠前行业具 有一定的相似性。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 转自：智通财经 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the brokerage sector, suggesting that it is currently in a phase of fundamental and valuation mismatch, with expectations for improvement in the first half of the year [2][6]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector has seen a significant increase in allocation by active equity funds, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 102 basis points, surpassing the three-year average [2]. - The report highlights strong earnings forecasts for 2025, with notable increases in net profits for several brokerages, including a projected 405.3% increase for Guolian Minsheng [2][16]. - The insurance sector is expected to stabilize, with a forecasted recovery in the predetermined interest rate for life insurance products, anticipated to rise to 1.96% in Q1 2026 [2][28]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,702.50 with a decline of 0.62%, while the non-bank index fell by 1.45% [6]. - The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial indices reported changes of -0.61%, -4.02%, and +3.10%, respectively [6]. Non-Banking Sector Insights - The report notes that the China Securities Regulatory Commission has introduced new guidelines for performance benchmarks for publicly offered securities investment funds, aiming to enhance transparency and accountability [8][10]. - Key announcements from individual companies include China Pacific Insurance reporting an 8.1% increase in premium income for 2025, and Guolian Minsheng forecasting a significant profit increase due to business integration [12][16]. Investment Analysis Recommendations - For brokerages, the report recommends focusing on firms with strong competitive positions, such as Guotai Junan and Citic Securities, as well as those with high earnings elasticity like Huatai Securities [2]. - In the insurance sector, the report maintains a positive medium-term outlook, recommending companies like China Life and Ping An Insurance [2]. Key Data Tracking - As of January 23, 2026, the average daily trading volume was reported at 30,388.36 billion [32]. - The margin trading balance stood at 27,249.13 billion [38].

来源：光大证券股份有限公司 参考历史规律，本轮牛市后续可能如何演绎？本轮牛市上涨段3 初期或在4200-4300 点形成阶段性高 点，随后回调企稳于震荡段2 上沿，并重新开启新一轮上涨。从历史来看，结构性牛市突破震荡段2 后，上涨段3 初期高点较震荡段2上沿涨幅约5%，较震荡段2 下沿涨幅约14.5%，参考历史结构性牛市规 律，本轮上涨段3 初期或在4200-4300 点形成阶段性高点。阶段性高点出现后，市场通常会引发一轮回 调，而回调低点大概率企稳于震荡段2 上沿附近，震荡段2 上沿作为前期突破关键位，既是技术面的重 要支撑，也是市场对趋势切换的共识点位，具备较强的资金承接力与心理支撑作用。因此，后续需重点 跟踪两点：一是4200-4300点区间压力释放与资金承接情况；二是震荡段2 上沿的支撑有效性及核心板 块企稳信号。待支撑确认后，市场有望依托核心板块动能重新启动上涨，延续结构性牛市行情。 风险分析：1、牛市形态划分或不准确；2、历史规律失效；3、政策落地进度不及预期；4、市场情绪显 著回落；5、中美关系波动压制市场风险偏好；6、地缘冲突加剧。 责任编辑：王珂 A 股牛市行情形态有何规律？A 股多轮典型牛 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 1月23日，光大证券发布公告称，公司2025年度实现营业收入108.63亿元，同比增长 13.18%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润37.29亿元，同比增长21.92%。 ...

光大证券认为春节前市场将会保持震荡，难以保持稳定的趋势，这主要与春节之前投资者交易热度有所 下行，以及微观流动性短期趋紧有关。从历史情况来看，春节前20个交易日，主要指数上涨概率不足 50%。预计春节之后市场将会迎来新一轮上行动力，春节后20个交易日主要指数上行概率与平均涨幅均 较高。因此建议投资者近期以稳为主，但仍应持股过节。行业方面，关注电子、电力设备、有色金属 等。若1月市场风格为成长，五维行业比较框架打分靠前的行业分别为电子、电力设备、通信、有色金 属、汽车、国防军工；若1月份市场风格为防御，五维行业比较框架打分靠前的行业分别为非银金融、 电子、有色金属、电力设备、汽车、交通运输等。两种风格假设下，得分靠前行业具有一定的相似性。 主题方面，可继续关注商业航天。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-bank financial sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2]. Core Insights - The implementation of new regulations for public fund performance benchmarks aims to reshape the industry towards long-term value creation, moving from a "scale-oriented" to a "capability-oriented" approach [14][16]. - The insurance sector shows high efficiency in claims processing, with claim acceptance rates generally above 99%, driven by technology such as AI and big data [43][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Securities Business Overview and Weekly Review - The new public fund performance benchmark regulations will take effect on March 1, 2026, addressing issues like benchmark ambiguity and style drift, thereby enhancing the accountability of fund managers [14][15]. - The report highlights a mixed performance among major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 4,136.16 points, up 0.84% week-on-week, while the non-bank financial index fell by 1.70% [16][19]. 2. Insurance Business Overview and Weekly Review - Recent claims reports from various insurance companies indicate a high claim acceptance rate, with companies like Ping An Life achieving 99.2% [43]. - Despite high acceptance rates, consumer perceptions of "claim difficulties" persist, primarily due to misunderstandings regarding policy terms and inadequate preparation of claim materials [44]. - The average payout for critical illness insurance is around 100,000 CNY, while the average treatment cost for severe illnesses can reach 400,000 CNY, highlighting a significant coverage gap [44]. 3. Market Liquidity Tracking - The central bank's net injection in the open market was 9,795 billion CNY for the week of January 19-23, 2026, indicating ongoing liquidity management efforts [49].

Group 1 - The current phase of the A-share bull market may have broken through the second consolidation phase and entered the third upward phase, with a potential peak forming in the range of 4200-4300 points, followed by a pullback and stabilization at the upper edge of the second consolidation phase [5] - Key points to monitor include the pressure release and capital reception in the 4200-4300 point range, as well as the effectiveness of support at the upper edge of the second consolidation phase and signals of stabilization in core sectors [5] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury yield curve in 2025 exhibited a "steepening" characteristic, with short-term yields significantly declining due to interest rate cuts, while long-term yields remained volatile at high levels due to economic outlook expectations and concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability [5] - For 2026, the trend of U.S. Treasury yields is expected to continue the "steepening" pattern, with clearer interest rate cut paths potentially driving further declines in short-term yields, while uncertainties regarding tariffs and expectations of U.S. fiscal sustainability may cause long-term yields to remain high and fluctuate or rise slightly [5][6]

公司利润总额增长主要由于 2025 年中国整体经济稳中向好，内地及香港地区资本市场交投活跃度显著 提升、主要股指呈上行态势，公司牢牢把握高质量发展主线，持续夯实客户基础、抓住投融资改革机 遇，财富管理、投资交易、资产管理业务板块收入同比增长。公司继续深入践行集约化、精细化成本管 理，在支持业务发展的基础上，继续推进提质增效，提升资源利用效率。 格隆汇1月23日丨光大证券(601788.SH)公布2025年度业绩快报，2025 年，公司坚守功能性定位，持续推 动服务实体经济和国家重大战略落实落细，紧扣监管政策要求与市场机遇，全力推进各项经营计划落地 见效，夯实稳健经营根基。全年实现营业收入108.63亿元、同比增长 13.18%，归属于上市公司股东的 净利润37.29 亿元、同比增长 21.92%。 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 证券代码：601788 证券简称：光大证券 公告编号：2026-005 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 2026年第一次临时股东会 (二)股东会召集人：董事会 (三)投票方式：本次股东会所采用的表决方式是现场投票和网络投票相结合的方式 (四)现场会议召开的日期、时间和地点 召开的日期时间：2026年2月27日 14点30分 召开地点：上海市静安区新闸路1508号静安国际广场 光大证券股份有限公司 关于召开2026年第一次临时股东会的通知 (五)网络投票的系统、起止日期和投票时间。 网络投票系统：上海证券交易所股东会网络投票系统 网络投票起止时间：自2026年2月27日 至2026年2月27日 采用上海证券交易所网络投票系统，通过交易系统投票平台的投票时间为股东会召开当日的交易时间 段，即9:15-9:25，9:30-11:30，13:00-15:00；通过互联网投票平台的投 ...