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行业研究|行业周报|投资银行业与经纪业:政策推动行业长期稳定发展,看好非银板块绩优个股-20260126
Changjiang Securities· 2026-01-26 13:43
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-bank financial sector [7] Core Insights - The non-bank sector has shown weak overall performance this week, but some companies have disclosed high profit growth forecasts for 2025. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued guidelines to promote the return to fundamentals in the public offering securities investment fund industry, which is expected to drive long-term stable development [2][4] - The market trading volume has decreased, yet remains at historically high levels. The report suggests monitoring the sector's future performance [4] - In the insurance sector, the third-quarter reports have confirmed the logic of deposit migration, increased equity allocation, and improved new policy costs. The certainty of ROE improvement has increased, and valuations are expected to accelerate recovery [4] - The report highlights the increasing cost-effectiveness of overall allocations and ongoing revaluation in the sector [4] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Sector Performance - The non-bank financial index decreased by 1.5% this week, with an underperformance of 0.8% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 29th out of 31 sectors [5] - Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index has decreased by 1.6%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 3.1% [5] Market Overview - The average daily trading volume in the two markets was 27,988.78 billion yuan, down 19.23% week-on-week, with a daily turnover rate of 2.68%, down 68.47 basis points [5] - The leverage capital scale has rebounded, with a margin balance of 2.72 trillion yuan, up 0.23% [5] Insurance Sector Insights - The cumulative insurance premium income for November 2025 reached 57,629 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.56% [23] - Life insurance income was 41,472 billion yuan, up 9.06% year-on-year, while property insurance income was 16,157 billion yuan, up 3.88% [24] Company Recommendations - The report recommends companies with stable profit growth and dividend rates, including Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, due to their strong business models and market positions [4] - Additional recommendations include New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Caifu, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on performance elasticity and valuation levels [4]
“陈小群”概念股炒作利益链调查:东方财富、通达信、开盘啦等主流第三方App同样存在此类标签化操作
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-26 09:12
登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 当一个未经核实的"江湖传说"被金融终端和券商App确权为"顶级游资",在这桩既收割金钱又收割认知 的流量生意背后,其中是否有违证券市场信息披露的严肃性与合规底线,值得各方深思。 对于由此引发的"陈小群"等游资的"互联网战法",有观点认为,有大户可能用龙虎榜机制来收割散户。 金舆资产基金经理赵彤向《每日经济新闻》记者指出,这类操作手法其实多年前就在A股市场一直存 在,"游资先建仓,然后主动上龙虎榜,吸引散户,这个方式在2015年牛市中就很常见。'陈小群'的动 向在最近持续发酵,让这一问题再度凸显。" 另外,他指出,也可能会有另一种情形,比如某只个股的龙虎榜显示是"陈小群"席位在买,但实际上, 是某个游资穿了"陈小群"的马甲来迷惑市场。 游资身份深陷重重迷雾 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! "陈小群"概念股炒作利益链调查:"交易软件+券商"龙虎榜信息造神,游资借"互联网战法"收割散户 每经记者|王海慜 陈晨 每经编辑|李凯 张昊 彭水萍 2026年1月,随着商业航天板块的剧烈震荡,一个在A股市场萦绕已久的神秘名字——"陈小 ...
证券ETF鹏华(159993)涨超1.8%,A股市场持续活跃
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-26 03:02
Group 1 - The capital market has been active recently, with brokers conducting research on 440 A-share companies this year, predominantly in the electronics and machinery sectors, while the power equipment and chemical sectors have seen a surge in interest [1] - According to Founder Securities, brokers are still in a "lagging" phase, but ROE is on an upward trend, indicating that sector performance, although delayed, is expected to improve [1] - The capital market is projected to remain robust in 2025, with an average daily stock trading volume of 20.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.2%, and an average margin balance of 2.08 trillion yuan, up 32.7% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 国证证券龙头指数 (399437) has shown a strong increase of 1.98%, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as 财通证券 (6.50%), 兴业证券 (4.95%), and 华泰证券 (3.52%) [1] - The 证券ETF鹏华 (159993) closely tracks the 国证证券龙头指数 and aims to reflect the market performance of quality listed companies in the securities theme [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the 国证证券龙头指数 account for 79.13% of the index, including companies like 东方财富, 中信证券, and 华泰证券 [2]
光大证券:商业航天已成为市场近期最强主线之一 太空光伏为核心受益赛道
智通财经网· 2026-01-26 02:45
在政策、需求、资本的多重催化下,商业航天已成为市场近期的最强主线之一;而商业航天的低轨卫星 组网、太空算力落地等场景的规模化发展则为太空光伏打开了广阔的需求空间,其作为商业航天规模 化、商业化发展的核心能源基石也受到了资本市场的密切关注。 马斯克对太空光伏的具体落地规划是带动板块股价上行的核心催化因素之一 作为商业航天和新能源领域的全球创新领袖,马斯克对太空光伏的表述已从早期的概念性表态逐步转向 具体落地规划,围绕技术研发、产能建设、场景落地等多维度持续完善特斯拉和SpaceX的太空光伏领 域布局。此次在达沃斯世界经济论坛上马斯克提出了明确的产能目标,进一步提升资本市场对太空光伏 商业化落地的信心,进而带动光伏ETF(159857)次日大涨9.57%。 光大证券发布研报称,商业航天已成为市场近期最强主线之一,太空光伏为核心受益赛道。太空光伏的 技术迭代将带来新技术产能设备需求的持续增长,提前布局太空光伏领域并实现差异化技术储备的光伏 企业有望在行业发展初期获得先发优势与估值溢价。 光大证券主要观点如下: 事件 马斯克在2026年达沃斯世界经济论坛上宣布,特斯拉与SpaceX计划未来三年在美国建设总计200GW ...
港股高开低走,尾盘稳住涨势
Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33% to 4136.16 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.79% and the ChiNext Index gained 0.63%[1] - The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.45% at 26749.51 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 0.62% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.51%[1] - The total market turnover in Hong Kong was 240.9 billion HKD[1] Currency and Trade Tensions - The Japanese yen rebounded strongly, nearing the 160 mark against the USD, marking its largest single-day gain since August of the previous year[8] - U.S. President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Canadian exports to the U.S. if Canada reaches a trade agreement with China[8] ETF and Market Sentiment - Continuous outflows from broad-based ETFs in China have raised concerns about potential reductions in state-owned fund holdings, leading to increased interest in small-cap stocks[12] - From January 15 to 22, approximately 67.5 billion USD was sold off from 14 ETF products by the central government, indicating a significant market impact[12] Corporate Developments - Dongpeng Beverage plans to raise up to 10.141 billion HKD through an IPO, with a share price set at 248 HKD, representing a 12.5% discount compared to its A-share price[10] - BYD aims for overseas sales of 1.3 million vehicles in 2026, a nearly 24% increase from last year's 1.05 million deliveries[14]
十大券商一周策略:慢牛未改!科技 + 资源品成共识配置,警惕赚钱效应收敛
Jin Rong Jie· 2026-01-25 23:50
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is characterized by "structural differentiation and simultaneous repair," with various institutions noting that despite ongoing redemption pressure on broad-based ETFs, sectors such as consumer chains, real estate chains, and resource products are entering a repair window [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The broad-based ETF redemption pressure continues to grow, with significant differences in the承接力 (support capacity) among different industries and stocks [2]. - The consumer chain is expected to see an increase in allocation leading up to the Two Sessions, with the real estate chain also likely to experience noticeable recovery during this period [2]. - The spring market is supported by ample liquidity and policy backing, which may sustain the ongoing spring rally, although caution is advised regarding the marginal contraction of profit effects at high levels [1][3]. Group 2: Investment Focus - The consensus among institutions is to focus on technology (AI, semiconductors) and resource products (non-ferrous metals, chemicals) as key investment directions [1][7]. - There is growing attention on cyclical sectors showing signs of bottom reversal, such as power grid equipment and lithium batteries, as well as non-bank sectors [1][3]. - The current market environment is conducive to exploring basic combinations centered around chemicals, non-ferrous metals, new energy, and power equipment, while also considering low allocation in non-bank sectors like securities and insurance [2][4]. Group 3: Performance and Earnings - As the annual report forecast disclosure period peaks, the impact of earnings on market structure is expected to become more pronounced, with a focus on sectors with earnings highlights [4][11]. - The performance of sectors such as AI hardware, batteries, pharmaceuticals, steel, and non-bank financials is anticipated to improve, given their relatively low price increases [4][12]. - The market is likely to experience a rotation among sectors, with a focus on high-growth areas and those benefiting from price increases [12][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its slow bull trend, with the potential for a correction after reaching a phase high between 4200 and 4300 points [6][10]. - The spring market is seen as an extension of the structural bull market, with a likelihood of a consolidation phase following the current rally [3][5]. - The focus for 2026 includes a clearer dual mainline of asset allocation towards physical assets and Chinese assets, with thematic investments becoming essential [9][10].
港股早报| 黄仁勋新年来华首站落地上海 光大证券去年营收和净利同比增超10%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-25 23:08
1.美国英伟达创始人黄仁勋再度前往中国,首站到访英伟达位于上海的新办公室。这是黄仁勋2026年首度赴华。 2.在避险资产需求激增、全球各地散户疯狂买入推动下,现货白银价格历史性地突破了每盎司100美元大关,延续了近期的炽热涨势。上周五纽约时段,现 货白银升破100美元,最高时涨4.5%报每盎司100.58美元。年初至今银价已累涨逾40%,在2025年银价已实现了近148%的年度涨幅。 3.《北京市关于促进商业卫星遥感数据资源开发利用的若干措施(2026—2030年)》近日印发,其中提出,拓展国际交流合作。支持各类主体积极拓展遥感 数据资源国际市场,发挥北京自由贸易试验区、国家服务业扩大开放综合示范区先行先试政策优势,推进地理信息服务出口基地北京试点建设,进一步深化 卫星出口、卫星数据沙盒监管和跨境流动试点,为"数字丝绸之路"和"一带一路"空间信息走廊建设提供"北京方案"。 热点聚焦 公司要闻 招商银行(03968.HK):发布2025年度业绩快报,2025年实现营业收入3375.32亿元,同比增幅0.01%;净利润1501.81亿元,同比增加17.90亿元,增幅1.21%。 光大证券(06178.HK):20 ...
【有色】COMEX铜价对LME铜价溢价处2025年8月以来低位——铜行业周报(20260119-20260123)(王招华/方驭涛)
光大证券研究· 2026-01-25 23:07
Core Viewpoint - The copper market is expected to remain tight in 2026, supporting upward price movement despite current demand pressures [2]. Supply and Demand - As of January 23, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 101,340 CNY/ton, up 0.57% from January 16, while LME copper closed at 13,129 USD/ton, up 2.54% [2]. - The TC spot price has reached a new low, indicating tight procurement of copper concentrate; cable enterprises' operating rates have increased week-on-week, but domestic social inventory continues to grow, which may suppress demand due to rising copper prices [2]. - The supply-demand outlook for 2026 remains tight, with continued optimism for rising copper prices [2]. Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 2.9%, while LME copper inventory rose by 16.9% [3]. - As of January 23, 2026, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 719,000 tons, up 4.1% from the previous week [3]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 960,000 tons, up 6.2% from January 16; LME copper global inventory was 172,000 tons, up 16.9% [3]. Supply - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 526 CNY/ton week-on-week [4]. - In October 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year; global copper concentrate production in November was 1.923 million tons, down 1.9% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month [4]. Smelting - The TC spot price reached -50 USD/ton, marking a historical low [5]. - In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1781 million tons, up 6.8% month-on-month and 7.5% year-on-year [5]. - In December 2025, electrolytic copper imports were 260,000 tons, down 4.0% month-on-month and 29.8% year-on-year; exports were 96,000 tons, down 32.7% month-on-month but up 473.4% year-on-year [5]. Demand - The cable industry accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with cable enterprises' operating rate at 58.71%, up 2.72 percentage points week-on-week [6]. - The air conditioning sector, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to see production changes of +11%, -11.4%, and -2.4% from January to March 2026 [6]. - Copper rod production, accounting for about 4.2% of domestic copper demand, had a brass rod operating rate of 52.74%, up 2.56 percentage points month-on-month but down 3.40 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Futures - As of January 23, 2026, the SHFE copper active contract position increased by 6.4% week-on-week, with a total position of 231,000 lots [7]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 53,000 lots, down 1.6% week-on-week [7].
【十大券商一周策略】春季行情仍在途,注意总体赚钱效应已逼近高位
券商中国· 2026-01-25 14:11
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the ongoing recovery of market confidence, with potential for sector and stock recovery, particularly in consumer and real estate chains before the Two Sessions [2] - The article highlights the significant outflow of funds from broad-based ETFs, with a notable impact on sectors and stocks that are underweight by institutions [2] - It suggests that sectors with strong fundamentals and logical narratives, particularly those not heavily weighted in broad-based indices, are likely to see recovery [2] Group 2 - The spring market is characterized by a transition towards a more stable phase, with the potential for a perfect spring market driven by increased profitability [3] - The article notes that the overall profitability effect is nearing a high point, indicating that the market may face limitations in time and space for further growth [3] - It anticipates a correction phase following the spring market, where the focus will shift to clearer industrial trends and performance digestion [3] Group 3 - The article discusses the supportive role of abundant liquidity in driving the current spring market, stemming from various factors including insurance capital and foreign fund inflows [4] - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on fundamental performance as companies begin to disclose annual reports, with particular attention to sectors like AI hardware, batteries, and pharmaceuticals [5] Group 4 - The article identifies the current market phase as a structural bull market, transitioning from the second consolidation phase to the third upward phase [6] - It suggests that the market may face a correction after reaching a temporary high between 4200 and 4300 points, with a focus on the support levels and core sectors [6] Group 5 - The article advocates for a dual focus on technology and resource sectors, highlighting the importance of macroeconomic conditions and liquidity in shaping investment strategies [7] - It identifies key sectors such as semiconductors, AI, and new energy as central to current market trends, with a positive outlook for resource industries [7] Group 6 - The article suggests that the market's optimism is necessary, particularly in light of the recent volatility and the need to consider the relationship between market optimism and regulatory cooling [8] - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on physical assets and Chinese assets in investment strategies, with a recommendation for sectors like equipment exports and consumer recovery [9] Group 7 - The article indicates that the current market is entering a phase of high volatility and differentiation, with expectations for policy-driven demand expansion [10] - It highlights the potential for the non-ferrous metals sector to benefit from both industrial trends and financial attributes, particularly in light of geopolitical factors [11] Group 8 - The article notes that the A-share market is returning to a slow bull trend, with an increasing importance of sector rotation and fundamental performance [12] - It emphasizes the need to focus on structural investment opportunities, particularly in technology innovation and manufacturing sectors [12] Group 9 - The article suggests that the current market may be entering the latter half of the spring market, with a focus on sectors with strong performance and clear industrial trends [13] - It highlights the potential for price increases in sectors like basic chemicals and new energy materials, as well as opportunities in export-driven sectors [13] Group 10 - The article maintains that the slow bull trend is likely to continue, with a focus on technology, resource sectors, and industries with high growth potential [14] - It suggests that the current market conditions provide ample opportunities for investment, particularly in sectors with strong earnings forecasts [14]
理财收益率跌破2%,去年1800万投资者跑步入场
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2026-01-25 12:28
大幅增配公募基金。 随着《中国银行业理财市场年度报告(2025年)》(下称《报告》)出炉,过去一年理财市场的运行情 况浮出水面:存续规模站上33.29万亿元,全年累计新发理财产品3.34万只,累计募集资金76.33万亿 元。 在这份《报告》中,最受普通投资者关注的还是理财收益情况。在全市场利率普遍处于下行通道的背景 下,2025年理财产品平均收益率罕见跌破2%,降至1.98%。不过,2025年持有理财产品的投资者数量又 比上年末增加了约1800万个,年末已达到1.43亿个。 从资产配置结构来看,2025年理财产品大幅增配了公募基金,降低了直接配置权益类资产和债券的比 例,对现金和银行存款的配置比例也明显提升。 低利率时代,与"存款搬家"叙事同时受到关注的是理财收益率。 《报告》显示,2025年,理财产品累计为投资者创造收益7303亿元,较上年增长2.87%;全年理财产品 平均收益率为1.98%(统计期内每个月收益率的算术平均值),比2024年的2.65%下降了0.67个百分点。 存续规模超33万亿,今年再增3万亿? 《报告》显示,截至2025年末,全国共有159家银行机构和32家理财公司有存续的理财产品,共存 ...