Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Banking Sector (H-share banks) - **Period**: 3Q25 results and 9M25 performance Earnings Review - **Net Profit Growth**: Increased from +0.4% YoY in 1H25 to +0.5% in 9M25, with all big six state banks reporting positive YoY growth [1][11] - **Core Earnings Growth**: Slowed from +1.6% YoY in 1H to +0.8% by 9M25 [1] - **Performance Comparison**: H-share bank sector rose 19.9% YTD, underperforming MSCI China and HSI by 16ppt and 9ppt, respectively [1][11] - **Dividend Yield**: Sector's dividend yield at 5.3% is considered unattractive [1][11] - **Stock Recommendations**: Downgraded CCB-H/ABC-H from Buy to Neutral; upgraded BoComm-H from Underperform to Neutral; ICBC is the top pick among large banks [1][11] Loan Growth and Deposit Trends - **Loan Growth**: Average loan growth decelerated from 6.8%/6.9% YoY in FY24/1H25 to 6.3% in 9M25; big six state banks led with 7.5-10.0% YoY growth [2] - **Small Banks**: Experienced loan size contraction of 0.3-1.4% QoQ, raising concerns [2] - **Deposit Growth**: Seasonally low at 0.2% QoQ in 3Q, but YoY growth at 6.8% exceeded loan growth [2] Net Interest Margin (NIM) - **NIM Trends**: Average NIM edged down 1bp QoQ to 1.42% in 3Q; some banks reported NIM increases due to reduced funding costs [3] - **Future Outlook**: Potential stabilization of margins expected if no further policy rate cuts occur [3] Non-Interest Income - **Fee Income Growth**: Improved from +3.3% YoY in 1H to +4.8% in 9M25, attributed to a lower base and strong capital markets [4] - **Trading Gains**: Weakened from 29% YoY in 1H25 to 16% in 9M25, with some banks experiencing significant QoQ drops [4] Credit Quality and Provisions - **NPL Ratio**: Stable at 1.22% QoQ/YTD; average credit cost fell 5bp YoY to 67bp in 9M25 [5] - **Provisions**: Total provisions rose by +0.5% YoY in 9M, down from +3.5% in 1H [5] - **Coverage Ratios**: NPL and loan reserve coverage edged down QoQ to 232% and 2.75%, respectively [5] Valuation and Market Performance - **Valuation Metrics**: H-share banks currently trade at 0.55x P/B, 3.5x P/PPOP, and 6.0x P/E; dividend yield has declined from nearly 10% in Jan-2024 to 5.3% [11][21][23] - **Market Performance**: H-share banks underperformed the MSCI China index YTD; A-H share premium narrowed from 34% to 21% [31][11] Conclusion - The Chinese banking sector is showing mixed signals with modest profit growth and declining loan growth. While larger banks provide some stability, the overall market performance and valuation metrics suggest caution for investors. The focus remains on key players like ICBC, with recommendations adjusted based on recent performance.

Core Insights - Southbound funds increased their holdings in China Construction Bank (00939.HK) by 48.891 million shares on November 6, 2025, marking a continuous increase over the past five trading days with a total net increase of 167 million shares [1] - Over the last 20 trading days, there have been 16 days of net increases in holdings, totaling 217 million shares [1] - As of now, southbound funds hold 33.489 billion shares of China Construction Bank, accounting for 13.92% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Summary by Category Trading Activity - On November 6, 2025, total shares held reached 33.489 billion, with a change of 48.891 million shares, reflecting a 0.15% increase [2] - On November 5, 2025, total shares held were 33.440 billion, with a change of 29.889 million shares, reflecting a 0.09% increase [2] - On November 4, 2025, total shares held were 33.410 billion, with a change of 77.554 million shares, reflecting a 0.23% increase [2] - On November 3, 2025, total shares held were 33.332 billion, with a change of 586,700 shares, reflecting no significant change [2] - On October 31, 2025, total shares held were 33.332 billion, with a change of 10.034 million shares, reflecting a 0.03% increase [2] Company Overview - China Construction Bank is a commercial bank with main business segments including corporate banking, personal banking, and fund operations [2]

Core Insights - The mobile banking app has become a core platform for commercial banks to serve users, optimize experiences, and enhance competitiveness in the context of national digital transformation and financial technology innovation [1] - The integration of AI technology, refined operational strategies, and diversified user demands are reshaping the market landscape and value of mobile banking apps [1] User Flow and Behavior - The user flow of mobile banking apps in China is stabilizing between 650 million to 700 million from 2023 to 2025, indicating a saturated market [2] - The decline in user engagement is evident, with average daily usage time dropping from 4.93 minutes to 2.70 minutes and daily usage frequency decreasing from 4.54 times to 2.86 times [4] Operational Strategies - Refined operations are crucial for banks to break through in a saturated market, focusing on precise user insights and intelligent technology applications [6][7] - AI technology is enhancing refined operations by upgrading interaction experiences, strengthening risk control, expanding diverse scenarios, and improving data operations [9] Rankings and Performance - The top three banks by average monthly active users (MAU) are Agricultural Bank of China (24 million), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (18.9 million), and China Construction Bank (10.6 million) [11][15] - Among joint-stock commercial banks, China Merchants Bank leads with over 7 million MAU, while other banks like Ping An Bank and CITIC Bank follow closely [16][17] - City commercial banks show strong performance, with Jiangsu Bank leading at 349.6 thousand MAU, and several banks achieving significant growth rates [19][20] Case Studies of Successful Apps - Agricultural Bank of China is integrating financial services with daily life scenarios, achieving a 4.8% growth in MAU [28][29] - China Merchants Bank continues to innovate its app to meet customer needs and leverage AI technology [31] - Beijing Bank is focusing on a digital transformation strategy that combines technology, scenarios, and services [35]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Construction Bank (Shenzhen Bank) has developed a series of innovative financial services tailored for technology enterprises, demonstrating a successful model for financial support in the context of high-quality development driven by technological innovation [2][9]. Group 1: Service Innovation - Shenzhen Bank has created a "heat map" tool to enhance service coverage for over 34,000 technology enterprises in Shenzhen, addressing the challenge of information asymmetry and enabling precise identification and management of service targets [2][8]. - As of September, Shenzhen Bank has provided financing services to over 20,000 technology enterprises, achieving a coverage rate of 80% for specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises and 60% for national high-tech enterprises [2][8]. - The bank's technology loan balance exceeds 250 billion yuan, with a year-to-date increase of over 50 billion yuan, showcasing its strong service capabilities [2]. Group 2: Differentiated Services - Shenzhen Bank offers differentiated financial services based on the lifecycle needs of enterprises, including a digital financing platform for small and micro technology enterprises that assesses innovation capabilities [3][4]. - The bank has launched specialized online loan products such as "Small Micro Technology e-loan" and "Angel Loan," focusing on technology innovation rather than traditional financial metrics [4]. Group 3: Comprehensive Financial Solutions - For growing medium and large technology enterprises, Shenzhen Bank provides integrated services that address capital needs during business expansion and capital management [5]. - The bank has established a collaborative mechanism to support enterprises in their capital operations, including long-term loans and fundraising management for IPOs [5]. Group 4: Cross-Border Financial Services - Shenzhen Bank has introduced a "one-point access, multi-chain collaboration" service model to meet the increasing demand for cross-border financial services among technology enterprises [6][8]. - The bank collaborates with its international branches to provide comprehensive services, including domestic financing, cross-border financial support, and IPO sponsorship [6]. Group 5: Ecosystem Building - Shenzhen Bank's innovation in technology finance is supported by a robust collaborative mechanism that integrates resources and business operations across domestic and international branches [8]. - The bank has formed specialized teams to provide tailored financial services that align with the unique characteristics of high-growth, high-risk, and asset-light technology enterprises [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The fundraising amount through private placements in the A-share market has significantly increased this year, with financial stocks leading the way in terms of capital raised [2]. Group 1: Fundraising Statistics - As of November 3, 2023, 140 companies have raised a total of 812.37 billion yuan through private placements, marking a 23% increase in the number of companies and a 5.4 times increase in the amount raised compared to the previous year [2]. - Among the top 10 companies by fundraising amount, 6 are financial institutions, highlighting the dominance of this sector in the private placement market [2]. - Four major state-owned banks, including China Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and others, have raised over 100 billion yuan each through private placements, contributing significantly to the overall market size [2]. Group 2: Specific Company Fundraising - China Bank raised 165 billion yuan, Postal Savings Bank 130 billion yuan, Traffic Bank 120 billion yuan, and Construction Bank 105 billion yuan through private placements [2]. - The successful completion of fundraising by these banks indicates a substantial breakthrough in their plans to supplement core Tier 1 capital through the capital market [2]. Group 3: Use of Funds - Companies are utilizing the funds raised through private placements for various purposes, including asset acquisitions and operational funding [3]. - For instance, AVIC Chengfei raised 17.439 billion yuan for acquiring 100% equity of AVIC Chengfei, while Sairisi raised 8.164 billion yuan for a new factory and operational funds [3]. - Guolian Securities raised 29.492 billion yuan to acquire 99.26% of Minsheng Securities [3]. Group 4: Policy Support and Market Dynamics - The revival of the private placement market is supported by policy initiatives, including the China Securities Regulatory Commission's new merger and acquisition guidelines [3]. - Local governments have also introduced measures to support corporate mergers and acquisitions, further stimulating the market [3]. Group 5: Notable Cases and Challenges - Some companies have seen significant participation from major shareholders in their private placements, such as Nanfang Electric, which plans to raise up to 2 billion yuan with substantial backing from its controlling shareholder [3]. - However, not all private placements have been successful; for example, GCL-Poly announced the termination of its nearly three-year fundraising plan, originally aimed at raising 4.842 billion yuan, due to market adjustments in the photovoltaic industry [4].

Core Viewpoint - China Construction Bank (CCB) is enhancing its global financial service capabilities during the China International Import Expo (CIIE), leveraging advanced technologies to provide comprehensive financial services to support the real economy and high-quality development [1][5]. Group 1: Service Innovations - CCB's Hongqiao Exhibition Branch is recognized as the "Most Beautiful Service Window" at the first CIIE, showcasing its commitment to innovative and efficient banking services [1]. - The branch offers a wide range of banking services, including both domestic and foreign currency transactions, ensuring that all customer financial needs are met efficiently [2]. - A new "self-service cash exchange machine" has been introduced to enhance customer experience by facilitating easy cash transactions [2]. Group 2: Professional Support Team - CCB has assembled a team of over 50 young employees with expertise in cross-border financial services to provide on-site support during the CIIE [2]. - This team is trained to assist exhibitors with financial policy explanations, product promotions, and various banking services, ensuring a seamless experience for participants [2]. Group 3: Digital Innovations - The introduction of the AI-powered humanoid robot GR2 at the branch aims to enhance customer interaction through intelligent Q&A and reception services [3]. - CCB is optimizing its service processes by integrating online and offline channels, improving customer service efficiency and experience [3]. Group 4: New Financial Products - CCB plans to launch a new comprehensive financial service product for enterprises engaged in cross-border trade and overseas investment during a special event on November 7 [4]. - The event will facilitate discussions on financial collaboration and opportunities for Chinese enterprises going global, highlighting the bank's commitment to supporting internationalization [4]. Group 5: Global Financial Service Center - CCB has established the "CCB Shanghai Global Financial Service Center" to serve as a hub for cross-border financial services, enhancing its global service network [5]. - The center aims to integrate domestic and international resources to provide tailored financial solutions for enterprises at different stages of development [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In recent years, the mismatch between the duration of banks' assets and liabilities has intensified, with the duration of the asset side lengthening and that of the liability side shortening. This has put pressure on some liquidity indicators and constrained banks' asset allocation behavior. The increase in long - term bond holdings has also increased the pressure on interest rate risk indicators. The report analyzes the current indicator constraints on banks' bond allocation and the prospects of these indicator pressures [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Liability - side Duration Reduction and Asset - side Duration Extension - **Net Interest Margin Pressure**: Since 2022, the net interest margin of commercial banks has continued to decline, from 2.08% at the end of December 2021 to 1.42% at the end of June 2025, compressing banks' profit margins [9]. - **Liability - side Duration Reduction**: - **Deposit**: Since 2023, the duration of new deposits has significantly shortened. High - cost, long - term deposits have been significantly reduced due to the expiration of high - interest fixed deposits in 2025 - 2026 and the suspension of "manual interest compensation" in 2024. Banks tend to guide customers to transfer to short - term deposits, and customers are less attracted to long - term deposits. New deposits are concentrated within 1 year [10]. - **Inter - bank Liabilities**: In 2025, banks mostly reduced the issuance of 9M and 1Y certificates of deposit (CDs) and increased the issuance of 3M and 6M CDs [15]. - **Asset - side Duration Extension**: Since 2019, the loan growth rate of listed banks has continued to decline, and financial investment has become an important alternative asset on the asset side. Bond investment is a major part of financial investment, with government bonds accounting for a relatively high proportion. From 2023 - 2025, the average duration of local government bonds has lengthened from 12.39 years to 15.62 years, and it is expected that the duration of the asset side of national and joint - stock banks will lengthen [17]. 3.2 What Indicator Constraints Do Banks Face in Bond Allocation? 3.2.1 Liquidity Risk: Low NSFR Index for Joint - stock Banks - **Liquidity Regulatory Indicators**: Chinese banks need to meet five liquidity regulatory indicators, including LMR, LR, NSFR, LCR, and HQLAAR. The report mainly analyzes LR, NSFR, and LCR. In mid - 2025, the LR and LCR of listed banks generally had sufficient safety margins, while the NSFR safety cushions of joint - stock banks (except China Merchants Bank) and some city commercial banks were relatively thin [3][22]. - **Reasons for Low NSFR in Joint - stock Banks**: The core reason lies in the liability side. Retail deposits are not advantageous, the proportion of inter - bank liabilities is high, and deposits tend to be short - term. This leads to a low Available Stable Funds (ASF) [41]. - **Measures to Deal with NSFR Pressure**: - **Increase the Numerator**: In October, joint - stock banks significantly increased the issuance of 1Y CDs. The net financing of joint - stock bank CDs in October reached 62.44 billion yuan, and the issuance scale of 1Y CDs was significantly increased [45]. - **Reduce the Denominator**: From January to September this year, joint - stock banks basically maintained a monthly net reduction of CDs and increased the allocation of interest - rate bonds, which is conducive to reducing the Required Stable Funds (RSF) and improving the NSFR [48]. 3.2.2 Interest Rate Risk: The ΔEVE/First - tier Capital of Some State - owned Banks Approaches the Upper Limit - **Regulatory Requirements**: According to the "Administrative Measures for the Interest Rate Risk of Commercial Banks' Banking Books (Revised)", when the economic value change of state - owned large commercial banks exceeds 15% of their first - tier capital, the banking regulatory authority should pay attention and conduct follow - up evaluations [53]. - **Interest Rate Risk of Banking Books**: In 2024, under six standardized interest rate shock scenarios, the maximum economic value change losses of Agricultural Bank of China (- 14.31%), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (- 14.71%), and China Construction Bank (- 14.73%) as a percentage of their first - tier capital were close to - 15%. This has objectively constrained bond - allocation behavior and will affect the volume and duration of state - owned banks' bond investments [55].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" and has been maintained from the previous rating [5]. Core Viewpoints - The retail loan quality is under pressure, with growth slowing down, and the overall retail loan bad debt ratio has been on the rise since 2022, reaching 1.29% in Q2 2025, an increase of 13 basis points from Q4 2024 [2][12]. - Retail loan growth is weak, with a year-on-year increase of only 3.5% in Q2 2025, which is a further slowdown compared to 2024 [20]. - Banks are increasing efforts to dispose of retail bad debts, which is expected to mitigate the impact of retail loan risk exposure on overall asset quality [3][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Retail Loan Asset Quality Under Pressure, Growth Slowing - As of Q2 2025, the total retail loan amount of listed banks reached 63.3 trillion yuan, accounting for 34.3% of total loans [2][11]. - The retail loan bad debt ratio has continued to rise, with the overall bad debt ratio for listed banks at 1.23% [12][19]. - The increase in retail bad debts is attributed to weak consumer demand and a decline in repayment capacity, with the retail bad loan balance growing by 28.7% year-on-year [20][21]. 2. Retail Loan Risk Exposure Easing, Credit Cost Pressure Marginally Reduced - The bad debt generation rate for retail loans in H1 2025 was 1.18%, slightly up from 2024, but the increase is less pronounced compared to previous years [34][35]. - The marginal easing of credit cost pressure is reflected in the credit cost for retail loans, which increased by only 1 basis point to 1.02% in H1 2025 [35][41]. - The overall retail loan risk exposure is expected to remain manageable due to banks' proactive measures in bad debt disposal [33]. 3. Retail Asset Quality Outlook: Policy Support, Risks Expected to Continue Easing - The overall credit risk of retail loans is expected to continue easing under supportive policies, particularly in consumer credit [4]. - The asset quality of consumer credit, including housing loans, is anticipated to stabilize marginally, while the asset quality in the small and micro-enterprise sector may continue to face pressure [4].

Core Viewpoint - Recent announcements from multiple banks indicate a trend of redeeming preferred shares, driven by cost optimization and capital structure adjustments in response to regulatory requirements [4][6]. Group 1: Redemption of Preferred Shares - Ningbo Bank plans to fully redeem 100 million preferred shares issued on November 7, 2018, with a total scale of 10 billion RMB, at a redemption price of 104.5 RMB per share, scheduled for November 7, 2025 [1]. - Hangzhou Bank, Shanghai Bank, and Changsha Bank also announced plans to redeem their preferred shares in December 2025, with similar redemption structures [2]. - The total amount of preferred shares redeemed by banks this year is significant, with a focus on optimizing costs and reducing liabilities [1][2]. Group 2: Issuance of Perpetual Bonds - In conjunction with the redemption of high-cost preferred shares, banks are increasingly issuing perpetual bonds as a replacement, with 51 perpetual bonds issued this year totaling 675.4 billion RMB, surpassing last year's figures [1][6]. - Perpetual bonds are seen as a more flexible and lower-cost capital tool compared to preferred shares, which typically have higher dividend rates [4][6]. Group 3: Market Trends and Regulatory Environment - The trend of redeeming preferred shares and issuing perpetual bonds reflects a broader market shift, where banks are adapting to lower interest rates and tighter regulatory requirements [4][7]. - The issuance of perpetual bonds is particularly crucial for smaller banks facing capital adequacy pressures, as they seek to enhance their capital structure and meet regulatory demands [7].

Core Insights - The overall performance of A-share listed banks in the first three quarters of 2025 reflects a stable total, improved structure, and significant differentiation amid a gradually recovering macroeconomic environment [1][10] - Revenue growth remains robust, with over 60% of listed banks reporting year-on-year increases, driven by optimized asset structures and a focus on non-interest income [2][10] - The net interest margin (NIM), a key profitability driver, is under pressure, posing challenges to the banking industry's profit model [1][7] Revenue Growth Resilience - More than 60% of A-share listed banks achieved positive year-on-year revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating effective support for the real economy [2][4] - There is a clear structural differentiation in growth dynamics among banks of different sizes, with larger banks showing stable revenue while some smaller banks exhibit stronger growth [4][10] Bank Performance Data - Key performance metrics for selected banks in the first three quarters of 2025 include: - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China: Revenue of 6400.28 billion, 2.17% growth; Net profit of 2718.82 billion, 0.52% growth - Agricultural Bank of China: Revenue of 5508.76 billion, 1.97% growth; Net profit of 2223.23 billion, 3.28% growth - Minsheng Bank: Revenue of 1085.09 billion, 6.74% decline; Net profit of 285.39 billion, 7.09% decline - Jiangsu Bank: Revenue of 671.83 billion, 7.83% growth; Net profit of 318.95 billion, 8.87% growth [3][4] Performance of State-Owned Banks - State-owned banks maintain a leading position in revenue due to their large asset scale and extensive customer base, with revenue growth rates above 1.5% for major banks [4][6] - Despite a stable net profit growth, the overall growth rates are moderate, reflecting the challenges of achieving high growth from a large base [4][6] Performance of Smaller Banks - Some smaller banks and regional banks demonstrate significant growth potential, with Minsheng Bank and Jiangsu Bank showing revenue growth rates of 6.74% and 7.83%, respectively [4][6] - The ability of these banks to achieve rapid profit growth is attributed to precise customer targeting, effective cost management, and supplementary income from non-interest sources [6][10] Net Interest Margin Challenges - The net interest margin for listed banks is generally declining, primarily due to factors such as the decrease in loan market quotation rates and adjustments in existing mortgage rates [7][8] - State-owned banks and some joint-stock banks experience a decline in NIM by approximately 15 basis points, while Postal Savings Bank sees a more significant drop of 21 basis points [8][9] Resilience in NIM - Some banks, like Minsheng Bank, show resilience with a slight increase in NIM, indicating effective business structure management in response to interest rate fluctuations [9][10] - Regional banks like Ningbo Bank exhibit smaller declines in NIM compared to the industry average, showcasing the effectiveness of their localized service models [9][10] Future Outlook - The banking sector's operating environment is expected to gradually improve with the continued effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, although differentiation among institutions is likely to persist [10] - Large banks need to leverage technology to enhance their comprehensive service advantages, while smaller banks must focus on deepening their niche markets to establish competitive strengths [10]