证券研究报告 公 2024年04月28日 司 报 告 迎驾贡酒(603198) │ 行 业： 食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 公 投资评级： 买入（维持） 司 当前价格： 68.94元 季 年报及一季报点评：洞藏高增长，业绩超预期 目标价格： 83.95元 报 点 事件： 评 基本数据 公司发布 2023 年年报与 2024 年一季报，2023 年实现营业收入 67.20 亿 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 800.00/800.00 元，同比增长22.07%；归母净利润22.88亿元，同比增长34.17%。2024Q1 流通A股市值(百万元) 55,152.00 实现营业收入23.25亿元，同比增长21.33%；归母净利润9.13亿元，同比 每股净资产(元) 11.56 增长30.43%。 资产负债率(%) 24.32 ➢ 利润超预期，现金回款良好 一年内最高/最低(元) 82.99/48.26 公司2023Q4实现营业收入19.16亿元，同比增长18.80%；归母净利润6.33 亿元，同比增长26.03%。2023Q4+2024Q1收入同比增长20.17%，归母净利 股价相对走势 润同比增长28.60%，收入符合预期，利润 ...

[Table_StockInfo] 买入 2024年 04月 25日 （维持） 证券研究报告•23年报及 24年一季报点评 当前价： 65.75元 迎驾贡酒（603198） 食品饮料 目标价： ——元（6个月） 24Q1 利润超预期，洞藏高增势能延续 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [T ab事le件_S：u公mm司a2ry0]2 3年实现收入67.2亿元，同比+22.1%，归母净利润22.9亿元， [分Ta析bl师e_：Au朱th会or振] 同比+34.2%；其中 23单 Q4实现收入 19.2亿元，同比+18.8%，归母净利润 执业证号：S1250513110001 6.3亿元，同比+26.0%，同时公司拟每10股派发现金红利13元（含税）。24Q1 电话：023-63786049 实现收入23.2亿元，同比+21.3%，归母净利润9.1亿元，同比+30.4%；24Q1 邮箱：zhz@swsc.com.cn 收入端符合预期，利润端超市场预期。 分析师：王书龙  洞藏占比稳步提升，省内增速表现亮眼。1、分产品看，23 年/24Q1 中高档白 酒分别实现收入50.2/18.8亿元，分别同比+27.8%/+ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 68.94 yuan and projected PE ratios of 19X, 15X, and 12X for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][3]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 6.72 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.29 billion yuan in 2023, representing year-on-year growth of 22.07% and 34.17% respectively. The fourth quarter of 2023 saw revenues of 1.92 billion yuan and a net profit of 633 million yuan, with growth rates of 18.80% and 26.03% respectively. In the first quarter of 2024, revenues reached 2.33 billion yuan and net profit was 913 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 21.33% and 30.43% [2][3]. - The product structure is continuously upgrading, with high-end liquor sales reaching 5.02 billion yuan and ordinary liquor sales at 1.38 billion yuan in 2023, showing growth of 27.84% and 8.68% respectively. The proportion of high-end liquor increased by 2.87 percentage points to 78.45% [2][3]. - The company is focusing on the Dongcang series and strengthening its mid-to-high-end product layout, while managing its low-end products. The revenue from high-end liquor is growing faster than the overall company growth, enhancing the product structure [2][3]. - The company reported a record high net profit margin in Q1, with gross margins of 71.37%, 70.71%, and 75.09% for the full year of 2023, Q4 2023, and Q1 2024 respectively, indicating a consistent upward trend in profitability [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 8.24 billion yuan, 10.09 billion yuan, and 12.22 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 22.6%, 22.4%, and 21.2% [3][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 2.91 billion yuan, 3.61 billion yuan, and 4.42 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 27.1%, 24.2%, and 22.3% [3][7]. - The company maintains a stable expense ratio, with sales and management expense ratios of 8.65% and 3.11% for 2023, and 6.72% and 2.34% for Q1 2024 respectively [2][3].

[Table_Page] 年报点评|白酒Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [迎Table_驾Title] 贡酒（603198.SH） [公Tab司le_I评nves级t] 买入 当前价格 65.75元 业绩表现亮眼，产品持续优化 合理价值 79.85元 前次评级 买入 [ 核Tabl 心e_Su 观mm 点ary] ： 报告日期 2024-04-26  事件：公司发布 2023 年年报和 2024 年一季报。2023 年公司实现营 [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 收67.2亿，同增22.1%；归母净利润22.9亿元，同增34.2%。24Q1 实现营收23.2亿元，同增21.3%，归母净利润9.1亿元，同增30.4%。 32% 22%  高档白酒占比提升，省内大本营氛围升温。分产品来看，2023年公司 11% 中高档白酒/普通白酒实现收入 50.2/13.8 亿元，同增 27.8%/8.7%； 1% 24Q1 中高档白酒/其他白酒分别实现收入 18.8/3.6 亿元，分别同比 -10%04/23 06/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 02/24 04/24 +24.3%/+11.9%。分地区来看， ...

公司研究 | 年报点评 迎驾贡酒 603198.SH 买入 （维持） 洞藏消费氛围渐起，业绩持续高增 股价（2024年04月25日） 65.75元 目标价格 77.49元 52周最高价/最低价 82.99/48.26元 总股本/流通A股（万股） 80,000/80,000 A股市值（百万元） 52,600 核心观点 国家/地区 中国 行业 食品饮料 ⚫ 公司发布2023年年报、2024年一季报。2023年全年实现营业收入67.2亿元，同 报告发布日期 2024年04月26日 比+22.1%；实现归母净利润22.9亿元，同比+34.2%。2024Q1实现营业收入23.2 亿元，同比+21.3%；实现归母净利润9.1亿元，同比+30.4%，业绩维持高增。 1周 1月 3月 12月 ⚫ 预计洞6/9高增引领结构提升，24Q1迎来开门红。分产品，2023年，中高档白酒 绝对表现% 6.01 0.32 17.54 10.13 实现收入50.2亿（yoy+27.8%），营收占比同比+2.9pct至78.4%，产品结构进一 相对表现% 7.12 0.19 11.94 21.04 步提升，预计洞藏6年/9年销售额快速增长、消 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 迎驾贡酒(603198.SH) 2024年04月26日 增持（维持） 迎驾贡酒（603198.SH）：洞藏延续高 所属行业：食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 增，业绩超预期 当前价格(元)：65.75 证券分析师 投资要点 熊鹏 资格编号：S0120522120002 事件：公司发布 2023 年年报，2023 年公司实现营业收入 67.2 亿元，同比增长  邮箱：xiongpeng＠tebon.com.cn 22.1%；实现归母净利润22.9亿元，同比增长34.2%；实现扣非归母净利润22.3 研究助理 亿元，同比增长36.0%。根据计算，2023Q4实现营业收入19.2亿元，同比增长 18.8%；实现归母净利润6.3亿元，同比增长26.0%；实现扣非归母净利润6.2亿 尤诗超 元，同比增长32.4%。2024Q1公司实现营业收入23.3亿元，同比增长21.3%； 邮箱：yousc3＠tebon.com.cn 实现归母净利润9.1亿元，同比增长30.4%；实现扣非归母净利润9.0亿元，同比 增长32.7%。 市场表现 迎驾贡酒 沪深300  23 年圆满收官，产品结 ...

食品饮料 公 2024年04月26日 司 报 迎驾贡酒(603198.SH) 告 产品结构升级，盈利能力优化 推荐 ( 维持 ) 事项： 迎驾贡酒发布2023年年报与2024年1季报，2023年实现营业收入67亿元，同 股价:65.75元 比增长22%，归母净利23亿元，同比增长34%。1Q24公司实现营业收入23亿 公 主要数据 元，同比增长21%，归母净利9.1亿元，同比增长30%。2023年公司拟每股派 行业 食品饮料 司 发现金股利1.3元（含税），合计派发现金股利10.4亿元。 公司网址 www.yingjia.cn ...

上 市 公 司 食品饮料 公 2024年04月26日 迎驾贡酒 (603198) 司 研 究 —— 23 年报及 24Q1 点评：洞藏势能仍强，24Q1 业绩 公 司 再超预期 点 评 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入 投资要点： （维持） 证 ⚫ 事件：公司发布2023年报与2024年一季报，2023年实现营业收入67.2亿，同比增长 券 22.07%，归母净利润22.88亿，同比增长34.17%，我们在业绩前瞻中预测公司23年营 研 市场数据： 2024年04月25日 业收入同比增长22%，归母净利润同比增长34%，公司收入业绩符合预期。24Q1实现营 究 收盘价（元） 65.75 报 业收入23.25亿，同比增长21.33%，归母净利润9.13亿，同比增长30.43%，我们在业 一年内最高/最低（元） 82.99/48.26 告 市净率 5.7 绩前瞻中预测公司 24Q1 营业收入同比增长 20%，归母净利润同比增长 25%，公司收入 息率（分红/股价） - 流通A股市值（百万元） 52600 符合预期，业绩超预期。23Q4+24Q1实现营业收入42.41亿，同比增长20.17%，归母 上证指数/深证 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.72 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.29 billion yuan, up 34% year-on-year. In Q1 2024, revenue reached 2.32 billion yuan, a 21% increase year-on-year, with net profit of 910 million yuan, up 30% year-on-year [3][4] - The company continues to see growth in its premium product lines, with the "Cave Cellar" series accounting for approximately 50% of total sales, reflecting a growth rate of about 35% year-on-year. The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in both domestic and regional markets [3][4] - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 71.4%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, driven by an improved product mix. The net profit margin also improved to 34%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 8.203 billion yuan in 2024, 10.008 billion yuan in 2025, and 11.808 billion yuan in 2026, with a consistent growth rate of around 22% [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 2.878 billion yuan in 2024, 3.573 billion yuan in 2025, and 4.263 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 25.78%, 24.16%, and 19.31% respectively [2][3] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.60 yuan in 2024, 4.47 yuan in 2025, and 5.33 yuan in 2026, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2][3] Market Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong market position in its home province, with a focus on enhancing the quality and quantity of its distribution network. The management emphasizes a digital transformation strategy to improve operational efficiency [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025, now expecting net profits of 2.88 billion yuan and 3.57 billion yuan respectively, reflecting confidence in sustained growth driven by consumer demand and product upgrades [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 80.00 CNY, maintaining the previous rating of "Buy" [1][2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company has benefited from the volume increase of its cave-aged liquor series and internal structural upgrades, leading to record-high profit margins. The revenue for 2023 is expected to meet forecasts, with a net profit of 2.288 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.2% [1][2]. - The company is expected to maintain high profitability with projected EPS of 3.64 CNY for 2024, 4.55 CNY for 2025, and 5.66 CNY for 2026, supported by a 22X PE valuation for 2024 [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 6.720 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 22%. The net profit is expected to reach 2.288 billion CNY, reflecting a 34.2% increase [1][2]. - The first quarter of 2024 shows a revenue of 2.325 billion CNY, up 21.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 913 million CNY, marking a 30.4% increase [1][2]. Market Position - The high-end liquor segment's revenue is expected to account for 78.4% of total sales, with cave-aged liquor contributing approximately 50% to total revenue [1][2]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the high-end liquor market, with positive feedback from core markets and a strong inventory and pricing environment [1][2]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the cave-aged liquor segment, with a stable performance expected in 2024. The company plans to enhance brand and channel management, aiming for further structural upgrades [1][2]. - The financial metrics indicate a robust outlook, with operating profit margins projected to reach 45.2% in 2024 and net asset return rates expected to improve to 29.4% [1][2].