证券研究报告 | 2025 年 04 月 29 日 晨会集萃 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|中观景气度高频跟踪及运用——中观景气度数据库和定量模型应 用》 1、4 月决断，应对波动率放大，待冲击落地继续攻坚。根据经济复苏与 市场流动性，可以把投资主线降维为三个方向：1）Deepseek 突破与开源 引领的科技 AI+，2）消费股的估值修复和消费分层逐步复苏，3）低估红 利继续崛起。红利回撤常在有强势产业趋势出现的时候，因此低估红利的 高度取决于 AI 产业趋势的进展，而 AI 产业趋势的进展又取决于 AI 应用 端和消费端的突破。2、从整体的行业景气度方面来看，本周机械设备、 食品饮料、非银金融、房地产、环保、商贸零售等行业整体呈上行趋势； 石油石化、医药生物、家用电器、银行、公用事业等行业整体呈下行趋势。 3、我们预测了未来 4 周表现较优的申万二级行业。重视汽车服务、通用 设备、物流、元件、专用设备、造纸、半导体、风电设备、消费电子、电 机Ⅱ、服装家纺、光学光电子、光伏设备、饰品、基础建设等申万二级行 业。相对于上周，本周主要新增了汽车服务、半导体、服饰家纺等。 风险提示：1）历史复盘仅供参考；2）市 ...

[Table_Title] 盈利能力恢复 [Table_Title2] 科沃斯(603486) [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司发布 24 年年报&25 年一季报： 24 年：营业总收入 165.42 亿元（YOY+6.71%），归母净利润 8.06 亿元（YOY+31.70%），扣非后归母 净利润 7.16 亿元 （YOY+48.09%）。 24Q4：营业总收入 63.16 亿元（YOY+27.07%），归母净利润 1.91 亿元（YOY+2178.04%），扣非后归母净利润 1.85 亿元 （YOY+583.82%）。 25Q1：营业总收入 38.58 亿元（YOY+11.06%），归母净利润 4.75 亿元（YOY+59.43%），扣非后归母 净利润 3.56 亿元 （YOY+24.17%）。 分析判断 收入端：主要由量增贡献，外销增速快于内销，国补表现出较 强的拉动作用。24 年科沃斯品牌服务机器人销售收入 80.82 亿 元，同比增长 5%；添可品牌高端智能生活电器销售收入 80.61 亿元，同比增长 11%。收入主要由量增贡献，24 年科沃斯品牌 服务机器人产品全球出货达 295 万 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·小家电 科沃斯（603486） 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评：2025Q1 归 母净利润同比+59%，盈利改善逻辑开始兑现 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 15,502 | 16,542 | 18,224 | 20,519 | 23,105 | | 同比（%） | 1.16 | 6.71 | 10.17 | 12.59 | 12.60 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 612.08 | 806.09 | 1,201.98 | 1,483.65 | 1,819.70 | | 同比（%） | (63.96) | 31.70 | 49.11 | 23.43 | 22.65 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.06 | 1.40 | 2.09 | 2.58 | 3.16 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 49.98 | 37.95 | 25.45 | 2 ...

公司报告 | 年报点评报告 科沃斯（603486） 证券研究报告 国补带动内销增长，公司大力发展海外市场 事件：公司 2024 年全年实现营业收入 165.42 亿元，同比+6.71%，归母净利润 8.06 亿元，同 比+31.7%；其中 2024Q4 实现营业收入 63.16 亿元，同比+27.07%，归母净利润 1.91 亿元，同 比+2178.04%。公司 2025 年 Q1 全年实现营业收入 38.58 亿元，同比+11.06%，归母净利润 4.75 亿元，同比+59.43%。公司向全体股东每股派发现金红利 0.45 元（含税），分红比例 32.12%。 国补+大促带动内销增长，公司大力发展海外市场 国补 +大促带动公司 24Q4 快速增长。 分品牌看，24A 科沃斯/添可/代工收入同比 +5.2%/+10.9%/-34%，其中 24H2 收入同比+12.2%/+17.8%/-32.4%。自有品牌 24H2 在大促+国 补的带动下环比加速增长。从量价看，24A 科沃斯品牌服务机器人产品全球出货达 295 万台， 同比+16.9%，添可品牌洗地机全球出货达 414 万台，同比+28.3%；其中，受益于国 ...

科沃斯（603486）在2025年首季迎来"开门红"。 4月25日晚，科沃斯(603486.SH)同时发布了2024年年报与2025年一季报，报告期内，公司的营收与净利 润纷纷大涨。今年一季度，公司净利润增幅接近60%。 梳理财报后，证券之星发现，科沃斯之所以能够收获如此亮眼的成绩单，离不开技术创新和对趋势洞察 上的前瞻性。2024年，公司的系列明星新品备受赞誉，T50和X8系列新品在四季度更分别实现29.4万台 和20.6万台销售，推动品牌在中高价格市场份额的显著提升。其X8ProPlus一举斩获2024IFA"家庭清洁 机器人品牌奖"与"家居清洁解决方案金奖"两项产品技术创新大奖。 而凭借着丰富的产品线、卓越的创新能力，科沃斯在海外市场持续获得认可，2024年，科沃斯品牌和添 可品牌在欧洲市场营业收入较上年分别同比大增51.6%和64%。 值得一提的是，2024年，在实现业绩增长的同时，科沃斯也凭借着多项降本举措，使毛利率提升2个百 分点，今年一季度，公司毛利率进一步提升至49.68%。 两大自有品牌业务收入合计达161.43亿元，占公司报告期总收入的97.59%。从单季度来看，受益于国补 政策的有效实施 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company has shown significant sales growth driven by national subsidies, with a notable profit margin recovery [1][2] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be CNY 165.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with a net profit of CNY 8.1 billion, up 31.7% year-on-year [1] - The company expects continued growth in net profit for 2025-2027, with estimates of CNY 13.86 billion, CNY 16.30 billion, and CNY 19.00 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 71.9%, 17.6%, and 16.6% [4] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company's revenue from various segments includes CNY 80.8 billion from service robots, CNY 80.6 billion from smart home appliances, CNY 2.6 billion from OEM/ODM, and CNY 1.4 billion from other businesses, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 5.2%, 10.9%, -34.0%, and 43.4% [2] - Domestic and international revenues for 2024 were CNY 94.3 billion and CNY 71.1 billion, showing year-on-year growth of 5.0% and 9.1% respectively [2] - Online sales accounted for CNY 111.0 billion, up 14.7% year-on-year, while offline sales were CNY 54.4 billion, down 6.6% [2] Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin for 2024 improved by 1.94 percentage points to 46.5%, with service robots, smart home appliances, and other products having gross margins of 45.0%, 48.6%, and 13.4% respectively [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 increased by 0.9 percentage points to 4.9% [3] - For Q1 2025, the gross margin further increased by 2.5 percentage points to 49.7%, with a net profit margin of 12.3% [4] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 9.8%, 9.3%, and 9.6% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is CNY 2.41, increasing to CNY 3.30 by 2027 [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 38.0 in 2024 to 16.1 by 2027, indicating improved valuation [5]

多只成分股表现强势 星石投资认为，短期看，国内暂时缺少新的驱动因素，叠加临近五一假期，海外不确定性因素仍较多， 预计市场以震荡为主。中期来看，海外扰动因素冲击最大的时刻已经过去，中国市场进一步下行风险有 所减小。全球经济秩序重构和美国政策高度不确定性的环境可能会持续，这可能导致全球资金流出美国 市场，相应非美资产有望受益。 上周市场反弹，上证指数上涨0.56%，深证成指上涨1.38%，创业板指上涨1.74%，沪深300指数上涨 0.38%，品牌工程指数上涨0.45%，报1614.56点。 上周品牌工程指数多只成分股表现强势。具体来说，科沃斯上涨12.34%，排在涨幅榜首位；信立泰上 涨9.99%，居次席；上海家化和珀莱雅涨逾9%；药明康德上涨8.53%；丸美生物、中际旭创、宁德时代 涨逾7%；华谊集团、小熊电器、石头科技涨逾5%；阳光电源、恒瑞医药、盾安环境涨逾4%；兆易创 新、恒顺醋业、新宝股份、步长制药、亿纬锂能涨逾3%。 □本报记者 王宇露 2025开年以来，上海家化上涨34.83%，排在涨幅榜首位；信立泰上涨28.19%，居次席；丸美生物和广 联达涨逾20%；安集科技上涨19.48%；韦尔股份、山西汾 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 16.54 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.81 billion yuan, up 31.7% year-on-year [5] - The company is expected to benefit from the domestic subsidy and successful expansion in the European market, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [5] - The company’s gross margin has been recovering, with a gross margin of 49.7% in Q1 2025, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [7] Financial Summary - The total market capitalization of the company is 30.594 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 30.270 billion yuan [1] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 18.455 billion yuan in 2025 to 22.028 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits increasing from 1.386 billion yuan to 1.959 billion yuan [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 2.41 yuan in 2025 to 3.41 yuan in 2027, with the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 22.1 to 15.6 over the same period [8] Market Performance - The company’s stock price has fluctuated between 36.25 yuan and 68.39 yuan over the past year, with a current price of 53.18 yuan [1] - The company has a high turnover rate of 85.02% over the last three months, indicating strong trading activity [1] - The company’s domestic sales benefited from government subsidies, while international sales, particularly in Europe, showed significant growth [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported profits that exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 16.542 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 806 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32% [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.45 yuan per share, totaling 259 million yuan, which accounts for 32.12% of the annual net profit attributable to shareholders [6] - The company has outlined a shareholder return plan for the next three years (2025-2027), committing to distribute no less than 30% of the annual distributable profits in cash [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 19.037 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.1% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 1.313 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 62.8% [5] - The earnings per share for 2025 is estimated at 2.28 yuan [5] - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 46.8% for 2025 [5] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 16.1% for 2025 [5] Business Performance - The company successfully launched new products in the domestic market and achieved significant growth in the European market, with overseas revenue reaching 6.808 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.6% [6] - The company’s brands achieved a revenue of 8.082 billion yuan and 8.061 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.22% and 10.87% [6] - The company’s sales volume for new products in Q4 2024 saw a year-on-year increase of 47.5% and 32.7% for its two main brands [6] Cost Control and Profitability - The company has effectively controlled costs, with a decrease in the sales expense ratio by 3.84 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The R&D and financial expense ratios have also narrowed in Q1 2025 [6] Valuation and Investment Outlook - The company’s earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 1.313 billion yuan and 1.563 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a growth of 63% and 19% [6] - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 23 for 2025, 20 for 2026, and 17 for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Ecovacs, reported a strong financial performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, with significant growth in both revenue and net profit, driven by innovation and cost optimization strategies [2][3][5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Ecovacs achieved a revenue of 16.552 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.71%, and a net profit of 806 million yuan, up 31.70% [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.858 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.06% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 475 million yuan, which is a 59.43% increase [2]. Revenue Structure and Market Demand - Both Ecovacs and its sub-brand, Tineco, surpassed 8 billion yuan in sales, with growth rates of 5.22% and 10.87% respectively, driven by innovative product launches [3]. - The Ecovacs brand sold 2.95 million service robots globally, a 16.9% increase, while Tineco's floor cleaning machines reached 4.14 million units, up 28.3% [3]. Market Leadership - Ecovacs has maintained its position as the leading brand in China's vacuum robot market for ten consecutive years, while Tineco has been the top-selling floor cleaning machine brand for five years [4]. Cost Control and Profitability - The company has successfully implemented cost control measures, resulting in a 2 percentage point increase in overall gross margin [5][6]. - Ecovacs' overseas revenue reached 6.808 billion yuan, a 12.6% increase, with significant growth in the European market, where revenues grew by 51.6% for Ecovacs and 64.0% for Tineco [6]. R&D Investment and Innovation - Ecovacs increased its R&D expenditure to 885 million yuan, a 7.30% rise, with R&D personnel making up 18.38% of the workforce [7]. - The company holds a total of 2,415 authorized patents, including 668 invention patents, and is actively exploring advanced technologies in robotics and AI [7]. Market Opportunities - The rise in consumer awareness of smart products, coupled with effective government incentives, is creating new growth opportunities in the service robot and smart appliance sectors [8].