Core Viewpoint - The report from Zheshang Securities indicates that the import volume of Mongolian coal has rebounded in Q3, leading to a recovery in supply chain trade profits as prices have increased [1][5]. Group 1: Coal Price and Trade Profit - In Q3, coking coal prices have rebounded, and the profit margin for trade enterprises has improved [2][5]. - The profit margin for Jiao You International's coking coal supply chain trade is approximately 58 CNY/ton, primarily driven by logistics services, while trade segment profits have been largely squeezed [1][2]. - Jiao You International achieved a sales volume of 3.4 million tons of Mongolian coal in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 15%, increasing its market share at the Ganqimaodu port to 20% [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply and demand for coking coal are expected to remain tight, providing support for prices [3][5]. - Domestic iron and steel production remains high, with an average daily output of approximately 2.42 million tons from 247 sample steel mills, a year-on-year increase of 8% [3]. - The coal inventory at Ganqimaodu port was approximately 2.88 million tons as of September 25, a decrease of 112 tons from the end of Q2 [3]. Group 3: Import Volume and Transportation Costs - The import volume of Mongolian coking coal has turned positive year-on-year in Q3, with significant increases in transportation volume at Ganqimaodu port [4][5]. - The average price of Mongolian raw coal at Ganqimaodu port was approximately 920 CNY/ton as of September 29, an increase of 134 CNY/ton from the previous quarter [2]. - Short-distance transportation costs have risen, with the average price in Q3 increasing by about 4% compared to Q2 [4].

嘉友国际物流股份有限公司 证券代码：603871 证券简称：嘉友国际 公告编号：2025-045 2025年半年度权益分派实施公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 每股分配比例 A 股每股现金红利0.2元 相关日期 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 发放日 | | Ａ股 | 2025/10/14 | － | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/15 | 差异化分红送转：否 一、通过分配方案的股东会届次和日期 四、分配实施办法 本次利润分配方案经公司2025 年 9 月 15 日的2025年第二次临时股东会审议通 过。 二、分配方案 1. 发放年度：2025年半年度 2. 分派对象： 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任 公司上海分公司（简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的本公司全体股东。 3. 分配方案： 本次利润分配以方案实施 ...

Core Insights - The logistics sector experienced a slight decline of 0.09% on September 30, with Furan De leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3882.78, up 0.52%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13526.51, up 0.35% [1] Stock Performance - Jiangsu Investment (600119) saw a significant increase of 4.92%, closing at 8.75 with a trading volume of 204,300 shares and a turnover of 180 million [1] - Other notable gainers included Wuchan Zhongda (600704) up 2.74% and Milkway (603713) up 1.59% [1] - Furan De (605050) led the declines with a drop of 3.95%, closing at 17.00 with a trading volume of 158,000 shares and a turnover of 273 million [2] Capital Flow - The logistics sector experienced a net outflow of 111 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 126 million [2] - Major stocks like Wuchan Zhongda and SF Holding had mixed capital flows, with Wuchan Zhongda seeing a net inflow of 43.38 million from institutional investors [3] - SF Holding (002352) had a net inflow of 40.77 million from institutional investors but faced outflows from retail investors [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - In Q3 2025, coking coal prices rebounded, leading to a recovery in profit margins for trading companies in the Mongolian coal import supply chain [1][2] - The supply-demand balance for coking coal is expected to remain tight, providing price support [3] - Mongolian coal import volumes have bottomed out and are expected to increase significantly, with short-distance shipping rates rising [4] Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - In Q3 2025, the average price of Mongolian raw coal at Ganqimaodu port was approximately 920 RMB/ton, a rise of 134 RMB/ton from the previous quarter [2] - The profit margin for coking coal trading is expected to improve significantly in Q3 due to the widening price gap between terminal and long-term contract prices [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic iron output remains high, with an average daily production of approximately 2.42 million tons from 247 sample steel mills, up 8% year-on-year [3] - Coal inventory at Ganqimaodu port was about 2.88 million tons as of September 25, 2025, a decrease of 112 tons from the end of Q2 [3] Import Trends - Mongolian coking coal imports turned positive in Q3, with average monthly imports of 5.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13% [4] - Daily average traffic at Ganqimaodu port increased by 20% month-on-month and 85% year-on-year in September [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Jiayou International and suggests paying attention to Yidazong due to the recovery in Mongolian coal import volumes and supply chain trading profits [5]

Core Points - The signing ceremony for the TAZARA Railway Activation Project took place in Beijing, attended by officials from Tanzania and Zambia, as well as representatives from various Chinese banks and companies [2] - The TAZARA Railway is a symbol of Sino-African friendship, with historical ties dating back to the 1960s when Tanzanian and Zambian presidents sought Chinese assistance for railway construction [4][5] Summary by Sections - **Project Overview** - The TAZARA Railway Activation Project Memorandum of Understanding was signed on September 4, 2024, leading to a collaborative effort between China and the two African nations [7] - The project aims to modernize the railway, enhancing its transport capacity and operational efficiency through systematic upgrades [7] - **Expected Outcomes** - The freight capacity of the TAZARA Railway is projected to increase from approximately 200,000 tons per year to 2.4 million tons, with transportation time potentially reduced by nearly two-thirds [7] - The activation of the railway is expected to stimulate the development of industries such as mining, agriculture, and logistics along the route, creating numerous job opportunities [7] - **Strategic Importance** - The project exemplifies China's commitment to the "Belt and Road" initiative and reflects the principles of "consultation, contribution, and shared benefits" in Sino-African relations [7]

Core Viewpoint - 嘉友国际 experienced a decline of 5.11% on September 29, with a stock price of 13.74 CNY per share and a total market capitalization of 18.796 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - 嘉友国际物流股份有限公司, established on June 22, 2005, and listed on February 6, 2018, is based in Beijing and specializes in cross-border multimodal transport, bulk mineral product logistics, and smart warehousing [1] - The revenue composition of 嘉友国际 includes: 62.06% from supply chain trade services, 29.83% from cross-border multimodal transport services, 7.57% from land port project services, 0.53% from PPP project contracts, and 0.02% from other services [1] Shareholder Information - 景顺长城基金旗下的景顺长城景盛双息收益债券A类 (002065) increased its holdings by 3.4726 million shares in the second quarter, now holding 8.6211 million shares, representing 0.63% of the circulating shares [2] - The estimated floating loss for this fund today is approximately 6.3796 million CNY [2] Fund Performance - 景顺长城景盛双息收益债券A类 (002065) has a total asset size of 10.557 billion CNY, with a year-to-date return of 7.06% and a one-year return of 8.3% [2] - The fund has ranked 343 out of 6588 in its category this year and 573 out of 6318 over the past year [2] Fund Manager Information - The fund managers for 景顺长城景盛双息收益债券A类 (002065) are 李怡文, 邹立虎, and 李曾卓卓, with varying tenures and performance records [3] - 李怡文 has a tenure of 15 years and a best fund return of 84.05% [3] - 邹立虎 has a tenure of 8 years with a best fund return of 64.28% [3] - 李曾卓卓 has a tenure of 3 years with a best fund return of 21.3% [3] Fund Holdings - 景顺长城价值驱动一年持有期灵活配置混合 (008715) holds 969,400 shares of 嘉友国际, accounting for 3.2% of the fund's net value, making it the eighth largest holding [4] - The estimated floating loss for this fund today is approximately 717,300 CNY [4] Additional Fund Information - 景顺长城价值驱动一年持有期灵活配置混合 (008715) has a total asset size of 325 million CNY, with a year-to-date return of 17.99% [4] - The fund has ranked 4694 out of 8244 in its category this year and 5591 out of 8080 over the past year [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][44] Core Viewpoints - Supply chain logistics companies are leveraging their substantial transaction volumes to create a second growth curve through monetization of flow, extending their business from "logistics - trade - manufacturing" [5][18] - New business segments are experiencing high growth, with significant increases in profit margins. For instance, from 2018 to 2024, the annualized gross profit growth rate for Manufacturing at Wuchan Zhongda is 22%, while for Milky Way's distribution, it is 21% [6][19] - The potential for a "Davis Double" exists, where high growth in new business profits and rising profit shares could drive overall profit growth for companies, alongside a rebound in commodity prices and improved market sentiment [7][30] Summary by Sections 1.1 Transaction Volume and Growth - Supply chain companies handle substantial transaction volumes, but revenue growth in logistics or manufacturing is slowing, necessitating new growth points [10][12] - The revenue growth rates for various companies from 2018 to 2024 show a mix of positive and negative trends, indicating a need for strategic shifts [11] 1.2 Monetization Logic - The monetization logic follows a "logistics - trade - manufacturing" model, with companies like Wuchan Zhongda and Milky Way focusing on enhancing their manufacturing and distribution capabilities [13][15] 2.1 Flow Monetization and New Business Growth - Flow monetization is driving high growth in new business revenues and gross profits, with expectations for continued growth in the future [16][18] 2.2 Wuchan Zhongda: High Growth in Manufacturing - Wuchan Zhongda's high-end manufacturing business has seen a 26% annualized revenue and gross profit growth from 2016 to 2024, with a 28% year-on-year gross profit increase in the first half of 2025 [21][23] 2.3 Profit Growth Center Rising - The rising share of gross profits from new business segments for companies like Wuchan Zhongda and Milky Way indicates an upward trend in overall profit growth [27][29] 3.1 Supply Chain Profit Recovery - Supply chain profit growth is correlated with commodity prices, which are currently at a historical low, suggesting potential for recovery as commodity prices rise [31][33] 3.2 Valuation Upside - Domestic supply chain companies' PE and PB ratios are approaching those of Japanese trading companies, with expectations for higher valuations due to faster projected profit growth from 2024 to 2027 [34][36]

Summary of 嘉友国际 Conference Call Company Overview - 嘉友国际 is involved in the coal supply chain and logistics, with a focus on coal trading and transportation services. The company has a target trade volume of 6-7 million tons for the year, up from 5.5 million tons last year [2][4]. Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - The company expects to return to profitability starting from Q3, benefiting from a decrease in coking coal prices and a stable domestic demand for coal during the economic recovery phase [2][3]. - The logistics profit is relatively stable, with a gross profit of over 50 RMB per ton for full-service logistics and around 35 RMB for partial services [2][6]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a trading volume of 1.7 million tons in Q2, with a significant increase in expected annual trading volume [4]. - If the company achieves its target of 7 million tons, logistics could contribute approximately 350 million RMB in profit [6]. - The overall profit expectation for the year is around 1.2 billion RMB, with contributions from both Mongolia and Africa [12][18]. Growth Opportunities - The company has secured long-term contracts totaling 7.5 million tons, providing a stable foundation for future growth [2][5]. - The African land port business has seen a growth rate of 40%, with expected profits of 330-350 million RMB this year, up from 270 million RMB last year [9]. - The company is expanding its operations in Africa, with projects in Zambia and Tanzania, which are expected to enhance profitability significantly [10][11][15]. Strategic Initiatives - 嘉友国际 plans to introduce advanced logistics models from China to Africa, optimizing resource allocation and improving operational efficiency [10][16]. - The company is also involved in significant infrastructure projects, such as the upgrade of the TAZARA railway, which will facilitate mineral transportation [15]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a stable demand for coking coal in China, with a positive outlook on pricing and demand during the economic recovery [7][17]. - The potential for profit in Africa is substantial, with projections indicating that overall profits could reach 1.5 billion RMB as projects mature [16]. - The company is expected to maintain a growth trajectory, with a projected market valuation of over 28 billion RMB based on a 20x P/E ratio, compared to its current valuation of 20 billion RMB [19]. Risks and Considerations - The company acknowledges that while coal prices have decreased, operational costs have also declined, which may limit profit margins compared to previous high price levels [17][18]. - The reliance on logistics profits rather than coal price fluctuations is a strategic shift that may mitigate risks associated with market volatility [18]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting 嘉友国际's strategic positioning, financial expectations, and growth potential in both the coal and logistics sectors.

Market Overview - On September 25, the logistics sector declined by 0.71% compared to the previous trading day, with Huapengfei leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.3, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13445.9, up 0.67% [1] Individual Stock Performance - China National Foreign Trade (601598) saw a closing price of 7.80, with a significant increase of 7.44% and a trading volume of 692,900 shares, amounting to 524 million yuan [1] - Huapengfei (300350) closed at 6.76, down 5.59%, with a trading volume of 702,900 shares and a turnover of 479 million yuan [2] - Other notable stocks include Zhejiang Merchants Zhongtuo (000906) with a slight increase of 0.66% and a closing price of 6.06, and ST Guangwu (600603) which decreased by 0.35% to 8.65 [1][2] Capital Flow Analysis - The logistics sector experienced a net outflow of 434 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 297 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like China National Foreign Trade had a net inflow of 43.04 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow from retail investors of 33.37 million yuan [3] - Other stocks such as Jiayou International (603871) and Milkewei (603713) also showed mixed capital flows, with Jiayou International experiencing a net inflow of 9.51 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - Jiayou International's stock rose by 5.01% on September 23, reaching a price of 14.04 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 261 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.41%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 19.207 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Jiayou International Logistics Co., Ltd. is located in Shijingshan District, Beijing, and was established on June 22, 2005, with its listing date on February 6, 2018 [1] - The company's main business includes cross-border multimodal transport, bulk mineral product logistics, and smart warehousing, providing comprehensive logistics services and supply chain trade services [1] - The revenue composition of the main business is as follows: supply chain trade services 62.06%, cross-border multimodal transport services 29.83%, land port project services 7.57%, PPP project contracts 0.53%, and others 0.02% [1] Shareholder Information - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Jiayou International, a fund under China Europe Fund holds a significant position. The China Europe Times Pioneer Stock A (001938) increased its holdings by 5.6 million shares in the second quarter, totaling 10.6001 million shares, which accounts for 0.77% of the circulating shares [2] - The estimated floating profit for today is approximately 7.102 million CNY [2] - The China Europe Times Pioneer Stock A (001938) was established on November 3, 2015, with a latest scale of 8.986 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are 41.4%, ranking 1006 out of 4220 in its category; the one-year return is 54.3%, ranking 1830 out of 3814; and since inception, the return is 320.1% [2]