大摩：相信洛阳钼业未来30日内股价将上涨，目标价11.7港元。 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley believes that the stock price of Luoyang Molybdenum will rise in the next 30 days, estimating a probability of about 70% to 80% for this scenario [1] - The firm maintains an "overweight" rating and a target price of HKD 11.7, based on discounted cash flow valuation [1] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its cobalt export ban until October 15, followed by the implementation of export quotas, with quotas for 2026 to 2027 set at 40% of normal production [1] Group 2 - Assuming Luoyang Molybdenum can obtain a quota ratio similar to the national level, potential sales volume could be approximately 8,600 tons in Q4 2025 and about 43,600 tons in 2026 to 2027 [1] - The expected cobalt supply will be significantly impacted, as the Democratic Republic of Congo accounts for 70% of global supply [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the Nonferrous ETF Fund (159880) and its major holdings, highlighting the fund's recent gains and overall returns since its inception [1]. Fund Performance - The Nonferrous ETF Fund (159880) opened with a gain of 0.79%, priced at 1.522 yuan [1]. - Since its establishment on March 8, 2021, the fund has achieved a return of 50.99% [1]. - Over the past month, the fund's return has been 12.17% [1]. Major Holdings - Key stocks in the Nonferrous ETF Fund include: - Zijin Mining: up 1.92% - Luoyang Molybdenum: up 3.76% - Northern Rare Earth: down 0.53% - China Aluminum: up 0.52% - Shandong Gold: up 3.84% - Huayou Cobalt: up 4.69% - Zhongjin Gold: up 3.50% - Ganfeng Lithium: up 0.34% - Chifeng Jilong Gold: up 2.90% - Yun Aluminum: unchanged [1]. Management Information - The fund is managed by Penghua Fund Management Co., Ltd., with Yan Dong as the fund manager [1].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Cobalt and Nickel Production in the Asia Pacific region, specifically focusing on the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and its impact on Chinese producers [2][8] Core Insights - **Cobalt Export Ban**: The DRC has extended its cobalt export ban until October 15, 2025, which will be followed by export quotas [2][8] - **Global Production Impact**: The DRC accounted for over 70% of global cobalt production in 2024. The new quotas are expected to lead to a significant supply decline in 2026-27 [2][8] - **CMOC Sales Projections**: CMOC sold 109,000 tons (kt) of cobalt in 2024 and 46kt in the first half of 2025. Assuming a quota similar to the national level, CMOC could sell approximately 8.6kt in Q4 2025 and around 43.6kt in 2026-27 [2][8] - **Nickel Smelters' Advantage**: Nickel smelters in Indonesia using laterite nickel ore and the High Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) method can obtain about 10% cobalt as a byproduct. This is expected to benefit them from potential cobalt price increases [3][8] - **Production Estimates**: Huayou's cobalt production from its Indonesian smelting operations is estimated to be around 20kt in 2025 (11kt attributable), while GEM's production is estimated at 12kt (6kt attributable) [3][8] Additional Important Information - **Export Quota Details**: The maximum export amount is set at 18,125 tons for 2025, with a breakdown of 3,625 tons for October and 7,250 tons for both November and December. For 2026-27, the maximum export amount is projected to be 96.6kt, which is about 40% of normal production levels [8] - **Quota Distribution**: Quotas will be allocated to companies based on historical export volumes, excluding those that exported less than 100 tons in 2024 or whose cobalt resources have been depleted [8] Industry Rating - **Overall Industry View**: The Greater China Materials sector is rated as Attractive, indicating a positive outlook for the industry over the next 12-18 months [5]

Group 1 - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will lift its cobalt export ban on October 16, implementing annual export quotas [1][3] - Cobalt is a critical raw material for batteries and essential for the electric vehicle industry [1] - DRC accounted for approximately 70% of global cobalt production last year, with the export ban initially imposed due to a significant drop in cobalt prices [2][3] Group 2 - The DRC government has stated that illegal mining is fueling violence from the M23 rebel group, and 10% of the export volume will be reserved for national strategic projects [3] - Major cobalt intermediate producers have suspended pricing, and some manufacturers have halted production due to raw material shortages [3] - The demand for cobalt is expected to increase as domestic consumption rises, particularly with the release of new consumer electronics and the end of the overseas summer break [3] Group 3 - Under the quota system, the cobalt industry may face tight balance or even shortages, with expectations of a long-term increase in cobalt prices [3] - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) plans to optimize resource release in line with local policies to maximize cobalt value, while Hanrui Cobalt (300618) is controlling order intake to manage sales rhythm [3] - Domestic cobalt raw material inventories are expected to last until the end of the year [3] Group 4 - Luoyang Molybdenum is a leading "mining + trading" company with significant production in tungsten, cobalt, niobium, and molybdenum, and is also a major producer of copper and phosphate fertilizers [4] - The company holds an 80% stake in TFM, one of the largest and highest-grade copper-cobalt mines globally, and a 71.25% stake in KFM, a world-class greenfield copper-cobalt mine [4]

Group 1 - The cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo has led to significant impacts on the global cobalt market, with major producers suspending quotes and some halting production due to raw material shortages [1] - If the cobalt export ban is extended, a substantial increase in cobalt prices is expected in the short term [1] - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Hanrui Cobalt are adopting strategies to manage market changes, focusing on resource release and controlling order intake [1] Group 2 - XINWANDA's wholly-owned subsidiary, Qianhai Hongsheng, plans to establish a private equity fund in collaboration with several investment institutions, with a total subscription amount of 30 million yuan, focusing on commercial energy storage projects in China [2] - This investment reflects the company's strategic positioning in the new energy sector and is expected to provide new growth opportunities and investment returns [2] Group 3 - Fengshan Group's collaboration with Tsinghua University on a technology development contract is primarily for research purposes, with significant uncertainty regarding the commercialization of results [3] - The contract does not impact the company's main business, and the current revenue from its sodium-ion and lithium-ion battery electrolyte products is limited due to intense market competition [3] - The company is cautiously expanding into the new energy sector while maintaining focus on its traditional business, with limited contributions from the new energy segment [3]

Group 1 - The cobalt export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo has led to significant impacts on the global cobalt market, with major producers suspending quotes and some halting production due to raw material shortages [1] - If the cobalt export ban is extended, a substantial increase in cobalt prices is expected in the short term [1] - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Hanrui Cobalt are adopting strategies to manage market changes, focusing on resource release and controlling order intake [1] Group 2 - Xiwanda's wholly-owned subsidiary, Qianhai Hongsheng, plans to establish a private equity fund in collaboration with several investment institutions, with a total subscription amount of 30 million yuan, focusing on commercial energy storage projects in China [2] - This investment reflects the company's strategic positioning in the new energy sector, potentially providing new growth opportunities and investment returns [2] Group 3 - Fengshan Group has signed a technology development contract with Tsinghua University, but the development is highly uncertain and unlikely to significantly impact the company's main business or 2025 performance [3] - The company is currently focused on traditional business areas while cautiously exploring the new energy sector, facing intense competition in the market [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [4][5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to support metal prices in the short term, with a structural improvement in demand anticipated during the "golden September and silver October" period in China [2][3]. - The supply disruptions in copper due to the ongoing closure of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia are contributing to a tightening market, which is expected to drive prices higher [2][3]. - The report is optimistic about cobalt and lithium prices due to supply constraints and increasing demand, particularly in the context of the upcoming holiday season and energy storage needs [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that industrial metal prices are expected to rise due to the combination of U.S. monetary easing and seasonal demand in China. The SMM copper concentrate import index has shown a slight increase, indicating a tightening supply situation [2][3]. - Aluminum production has seen a slight increase, with downstream demand expected to rise as the holiday season approaches. However, there has been a recent accumulation of aluminum inventory [2][3][4]. Energy Metals - The report anticipates a significant increase in cobalt prices due to potential extensions of export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, alongside strong demand for lithium driven by seasonal purchasing and energy storage needs [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that both cobalt and lithium markets are experiencing strong demand growth, with expectations for price increases in the near term [3]. Precious Metals - Following the Fed's interest rate cut, the report expresses a bullish outlook on precious metals, particularly gold, which is expected to benefit from geopolitical tensions and increased central bank purchases [4][5]. - The report highlights that the recent increase in SPDR gold holdings indicates a growing interest from overseas investors, further supporting the bullish sentiment for gold prices [4][5]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, based on their strong market positions and growth potential [4][5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [12]. Core Insights - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is a major supplier of diamond resources globally, and since February 2025, it has implemented an export ban on diamond products, significantly disrupting the supply side [1][3]. - The DRC's export ban, which began on February 22, 2025, has led to a substantial decline in China's diamond imports, with volumes dropping from 1.9 thousand tons in June to 0.52 thousand tons in August, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of -61.62%, -27.26%, and -62.05% respectively [3][4]. - It is estimated that global effective diamond supply will decrease by 34% from 282,000 tons to 185,000 tons due to the DRC's export suspension lasting seven months [3]. - Demand for diamonds is expected to grow steadily, particularly in emerging sectors such as low-altitude economy and robotics, with a projected increase of 5.06% in diamond demand to 210,900 tons in 2025 [3][6]. - The price of diamonds has risen from a historical low of 159,000 yuan/ton to 277,000 yuan/ton since the DRC's export restrictions were enacted, indicating a strong upward trend in diamond prices [3][6]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The DRC's export restrictions are expected to tighten supply, leading to a forecasted diamond price increase in the short term [3]. - The DRC's government has a clear stance on controlling diamond supply, making it unlikely for export restrictions to be lifted in the near future [3]. Company Valuation - Key companies in the diamond sector include Huayou Cobalt, Tongyuan Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, Liqin Resources, and Hanrui Cobalt, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated price increases [3][7].

Investment Rating - The report rates the cobalt industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3][12]. Core Insights - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is the primary supplier of cobalt globally, and since February 2025, it has implemented an export ban on cobalt products, significantly disrupting supply [3]. - The DRC's export ban has led to a noticeable decline in China's cobalt imports from June to August 2025, with import volumes dropping by 61.62%, 27.26%, and 62.05% respectively [3]. - It is projected that global effective cobalt supply will decrease by 34% from 282,000 tons to 185,000 tons in 2025 due to the DRC's export restrictions [3]. - Demand for cobalt is expected to grow steadily, particularly in the battery sector, with a projected increase of 5.06% in cobalt demand to 210,900 tons in 2025 [3]. - Cobalt prices have risen from a historical low of 159,000 yuan/ton to 277,000 yuan/ton since the DRC's export restrictions began, with expectations for continued price increases in the short term [3]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The DRC's export ban is expected to tighten supply, leading to a projected global cobalt supply of 185,000 tons in 2025, down from 282,000 tons [3][6]. - The demand for cobalt in the battery sector is anticipated to grow, with total cobalt demand reaching 210,900 tons in 2025, driven by applications in drones and consumer electronics [3][6]. Price Outlook - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to supply constraints, with a strong long-term price support anticipated from the DRC's government policies [3][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with profit elasticity in the cobalt sector, including Huayou Cobalt, Tongyuan Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, Liqin Resources, and Hanrui Cobalt [3][7].