2024 年 10 月 30 日 公司点评 买入/维持 东鹏饮料(605499) 目标价: 284.62 昨收盘:220.68 东鹏饮料：Q3 业绩延续高增，全国化扩张加速 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------|-------|---- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 12.56 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 45.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.71 billion yuan, up 63.5% year-on-year [1] - The revenue growth rate of 47.3% in Q3 2024 is the highest quarterly growth since the company went public, driven by factors such as strong product value, rapid channel development, and effective brand promotion through Olympic sponsorship [2] - The company is expected to see continued growth in revenue and net profit over the next three years, with projected revenue growth rates of 42%, 30%, and 22% for 2024 to 2026, respectively [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.3%, and a net profit of 980 million yuan, up 78.4% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin in Q3 2024 was 45.8%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to scale benefits and a decrease in raw material prices [2] Market Dynamics - The company has seen a significant increase in the contribution of new products, with the proportion of new products rising by 9 percentage points to 16% in the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - The company’s market share has improved, particularly in the provinces outside its home region, with the share from these markets increasing by 6 percentage points to approximately 73% [2] Future Outlook - The report projects that the company will continue to benefit from strong demand in the functional beverage category, with an expected increase in consumer base and market expansion [3] - The company is anticipated to enter a new growth phase in Q4 2024, supported by strong sales momentum and reduced channel inventory [3]

公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [T事ab件le：_S公um司m发ar布y] 2024 年三季度报告，Q1-Q3 实现营收 125.58 亿元，同比 +45.3%，归母净利润 27.07 亿元，同比+63.53%。 | --- | --- | |----------|-------| | | | | 投资评级 | 买入 | | 上次评级 | 买入 | 程丽丽 食品饮料行业分析师 执业编号：S1500523110003 联系电话：15680937306 基地市场持续深耕，全国加速。2024Q3 公司实现主营业务收入 46.85 亿元，同比+47.28%，主要系全国市场高速增长。具体来看，2024Q3 公司持续深耕优势市场，广东区域营收同比+23.79%至 13.12 亿元，收 入占比同比-5.23pct 至 28.12%；广西区域增速放缓，收入同比+46.18% 至 3.73 亿元。全国市场加速发展，华中区域收入同比+57.90%至 6.54 亿元；华东区域收入同比+43.60%至 6.44 亿元；西南区域收入同比 +51.85%至 4.44 亿元；华北区域收入同比+59.62%至 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/食品 证券研究报告 东鹏饮料（605499）公司季报点评 2024 年 10 月 31 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------|---------------|-------| | 股票数据 | | | | 10 [ Table_StockInfo 月 30 日收盘价（元） ] | 213.83 | | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 154.16-298.06 | | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | 520/520 | | | 总市值 / 流通市值（百万元） | 111194/111194 | | | 相关研究 | | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《东鹏特饮百亿后加速成长，补水啦第二曲线 | | | | 势能充沛》 2024.09.03 | | | | 《收入继续高增势能足，冰柜投放加大布局长 | | | | 期发展》 2024.04.29 ...

华福证券 司 研 东鹏饮料（605499.SH） 第二曲线爆发，基本面高增长 事件：东鹏饮料发布 2024 年三季度报，公司 24 年前三季度实现营业收入 125.58 亿元，同比+45.34%，实现归属于母公司股东的净利润 27.07 亿元， 同比+63.53%，实现扣非归母净利润 26.63 亿元，同比+77.3%。根据三季报， 公司 24Q3 单季度实现营收 46.85 亿元，同比+47.29%，归母净利润 9.77 亿 元，同比+78.42%，扣非归母净利润 9.56 亿元，同比+86.9%。 东鹏特饮稳定增长，新产品"东鹏补水啦"表现亮眼 1） 24 年前三季度，公司精耕全渠道的同时积极开拓全国销售渠 道，带动 500ml 金瓶及"东鹏补水啦"等新品销量增长。前三季度东 鹏特饮实现收入 105.07 亿元，同比+31.43%，占比对比去年同期-8.73pct 至 83.86%，东鹏补水啦/其他饮料分别实现收入 12.11/8.12 亿元，分别 同比+292.11%/+145.43%，占比对比去年同期分别增长 6.08/2.65pct 至 9.66%/6.48%。24Q3 单季度看，东鹏特饮实现收入 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Dongpeng Beverage (605499 SH) [5] Core Views - Dongpeng Beverage achieved strong growth in Q3 2024 with total revenue of 12 558 billion yuan up 45 34% YoY and net profit attributable to parent company of 2 707 billion yuan up 63 53% YoY [3] - The company's second growth curve "Dongpeng Water" accelerated with revenue reaching 1 211 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 up 292 11% YoY [3] - National expansion is progressing steadily with revenue from regions outside Guangdong growing rapidly such as Central China up 57 90% YoY and North China up 59 62% YoY [3] - Gross margin improved significantly to 45 81% in Q3 2024 up 4 29 percentage points YoY driven by cost reductions and economies of scale [3] - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to parent company of 3 260 billion yuan in 2024 up 59 8% YoY [3] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2024 was 4 685 billion yuan up 47 29% YoY with net profit attributable to parent company of 977 million yuan up 78 42% YoY [3] - Core product "Dongpeng Special Drink" maintained steady growth with revenue of 3 652 billion yuan in Q3 2024 up 27 73% YoY [3] - Operating cash flow for 2024 is projected to be 4 501 billion yuan up from 3 281 billion yuan in 2023 [8] - Net profit margin is expected to increase from 18 11% in 2023 to 21 67% in 2026 [6] Growth Strategy - The company is implementing a multi category strategy and strengthening its brand assets [3] - It is continuously improving the national layout of production and sales networks and enhancing channel penetration [3] - The company is actively developing and reserving other health functional beverages to meet consumer demand [3] Valuation - The current P E ratio is 34X for 2024 and is expected to decrease to 21X by 2026 [4] - The P B ratio is projected to decline from 13 0X in 2024 to 7 0X in 2026 [7] - EV EBITDA ratio is forecasted to decrease from 27 22X in 2024 to 16 34X in 2026 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in Q3 2024, achieving revenue of 4.685 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 977 million yuan, up 78.42% year-on-year, slightly exceeding previous forecasts [2][6] - The growth is supported by cost advantages and scale effects, with the company transitioning from a leader in energy drinks to a broader beverage platform [2][6] - The company is expected to continue its revenue growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 15.975 billion yuan, 20.242 billion yuan, and 24.586 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 41.84%, 26.71%, and 21.46% [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 12.558 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.34%, and a net profit of 2.707 billion yuan, up 63.53% year-on-year [6] - Q3 2024 saw revenue from East Peng Special Drink, Water, and Other Beverages at 3.652 billion yuan, 735 million yuan, and 281 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.73%, 299.58%, and 107.04% [6] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 45.81%, an increase of 4.29 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to low raw material costs [6] Market Expansion - The company is experiencing steady expansion in the energy drink market and is making progress in national distribution, with significant growth in various regions including Guangdong, East China, and Central China [6] - The company is also focusing on increasing advertising and promotional investments to support its growth strategy [6] Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 3.204 billion yuan, 4.185 billion yuan, and 5.240 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 57.10%, 30.61%, and 25.20% [7] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 36, 27, and 22 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [6][7]

补水啦增长强劲,盈利能力持续改善 核心观点 == ● 公司发布 2024 年三季度报，前三季度实现营业收入 125.6 亿元 ( yoy+45.3% ) ; 实 现归母净利润 27.1 亿元 ( yoy+63.5% ) 。单三季度来看，公司实现营业收入 46.8 亿元（yoy+47.3%），实现归母净利润 9.8 亿元（yoy+78.4%），业绩增长强劲。 ● 东鹏特饮大单品+补水啦新品共推强势增长。东鹏特饮大单品+补水啦新品共推强势 增长。分产品来看,24Q3 东鹏特饮实现收入 105.1 亿元（ yoy+31.4% ），补水啦实 现收入 12.1 亿元（yoy+292.1% ），双产品增速均强劲。分地区来看，24Q3 广东/ 华东/华中/广西/西南/华北/线上分别实现收入 16.6% /49.9% /54.1% /21.7% /67.1% /83.6% /112.8%，华北、西南地区以及线上高增,预计受益于销售渠道优化、线上 布局等。截至 24Q3 末，公司在广东/华东/华中/广西/西南/华北/直营及线上分别拥有 经销商 251/289/386/122/446/875/624 家，分别环比 24H1 末变 ...

证券研究报告 非金融公司 | 公司点评 | 东鹏饮料 (605499) 三季报点评:业绩持续亮眼，成本红利 及规模效应支撑盈利能力进一步提升 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 2024年10月30日 正券研究报告 |报告要点 公司发布 2024 年三季度报告，202403 公司实现收入 46.85 亿元，同比+47.29%，接近此前业 绩预告中枢；归母净利润 9.77 亿元，同比+78.42%，咯超此前业绩预告中枢。Q3 补水啦环比 提速，广东/华中/广西环比提速,成本红利及规模效应支撑盈利能力进一步提升。考虑到公司 能量饮料市场稳步扩容,全国化持续推进,同时第二曲线表现亮眼，助力公司加速从能量饮料 龙头向泛饮料平台转变。 | 分析师及联系人 邓周黄 徐锡联 刘景瑜 吴雪枫 SAC: S0590524040005 SAC: S0590524040004 SAC: S0590524030005 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 非金融公司 | 公司点评 2024年10月30日 东鹏饮料(605499) 三季报点评：业绩持续亮眼，成本红利及规 模效应支撑盈利能力进一步提升 | --- | --- | |--- ...

补水啦增长强劲，盈利能力持续改善 核心观点 ⚫ 公司发布 2024 年三季度报，前三季度实现营业收入 125.6 亿元（yoy+45.3%）；实 现归母净利润 27.1 亿元（yoy+63.5%）。单三季度来看，公司实现营业收入 46.8 亿元（yoy+47.3%），实现归母净利润 9.8 亿元（yoy+78.4%），业绩增长强劲。 ⚫ 东鹏特饮大单品+补水啦新品共推强势增长。东鹏特饮大单品+补水啦新品共推强势 增长。分产品来看，24Q3 东鹏特饮实现收入 105.1 亿元（yoy+31.4%），补水啦实 现收入 12.1 亿元（yoy+292.1%），双产品增速均强劲。分地区来看，24Q3 广东/ 华东/华中/广西/西南/华北/线上分别实现收入 16.6% /49.9% /54.1% /21.7% /67.1% /83.6% /112.8%，华北、西南地区以及线上高增，预计受益于销售渠道优化、线上 布局等。截至 24Q3 末，公司在广东/华东/华中/广西/西南/华北/直营及线上分别拥有 经销商 251/289/386/122/446/875/624 家，分别环比 24H1 末变动 -5/+2/- 1/+3/ ...