Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [14]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading wafer foundry in mainland China, benefiting from advanced process optimization and the trend of domestic substitution [5][12]. - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of $4.456 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.04%, and a net profit of $321 million, up 35.61% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 21.45%, reflecting improvements in product structure and capacity utilization [5]. - The report highlights the high barriers in the AI chip industry, with domestic manufacturers gradually overcoming challenges related to design and manufacturing [6][9]. - The domestic semiconductor equipment sector is advancing, with significant support from national policies, which is expected to alleviate the challenges faced by local manufacturers [7][12]. - The demand for advanced process chips is rapidly increasing, particularly in AI computing, smart automotive driving chips, and high-end consumer electronics [9][12]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand in various sectors, including AI computing and smart automotive technologies, due to its advanced process capabilities and production capacity [12][14]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of $9.386 billion, $11.159 billion, and $12.852 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 0.73, HKD 0.94, and HKD 1.19 [14][16]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth rate of 16.9% in 2025, followed by 18.9% in 2026 and 15.2% in 2027 [16][17]. - The net profit is expected to rebound significantly, with a projected growth rate of 51.5% in 2025 and continued growth in subsequent years [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - SMIC's second-quarter financial results showed a revenue of $2.209 billion, a 1.7% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 16.2% increase year-on-year. However, net profit fell to $133 million, down 19% year-on-year, missing market expectations of $167 million [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2, SMIC's revenue was $2.209 billion, reflecting a 1.7% decrease from the previous quarter but a 16.2% increase year-on-year [2]. - The net profit for Q2 was $133 million, which is a 19% decline compared to the same period last year, falling short of market expectations [3]. - Following the earnings report, SMIC's AH shares experienced significant declines, with a 3.04% drop in Hong Kong and a 1.30% drop in A-shares [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Orders - SMIC's current order volume is in a state of supply-demand imbalance, with demand exceeding supply [7][11]. - CEO Zhao Haijun expressed optimism about the semiconductor industry's growth for this year and next, predicting stable growth unless extreme scenarios occur [5][36]. - Despite external pressures from tariffs, Zhao indicated that the impact on SMIC's revenue would be minimal, estimating it to be less than 10% of customer revenues [12][16]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Despite the challenges, some fund managers increased their positions in SMIC, citing opportunities in domestic semiconductor manufacturing and advanced process breakthroughs [4]. - SMIC remains a favorite among public funds, ranking among the top ten holdings with a market value exceeding 40 billion yuan, although the number of shares held decreased by 11.58% in Q2 [3][4]. Group 4: Strategic Developments - SMIC is focusing on meeting the demands of strategic customers by expanding its product offerings, particularly in power devices and analog chips [20][22]. - The company is also adapting to the growing demand for 8-inch wafers, primarily driven by domestic customers, while maintaining competitiveness in the international market [24][26]. Group 5: Pricing Strategy - SMIC has not actively raised or lowered prices, with ASP (average selling price) expected to rise due to a shift in product mix rather than direct price increases [28][30]. - The company maintains a cautious approach to pricing, ensuring that it does not compromise its market position while responding to competitive pressures [30]. Group 6: Industry Trends - The semiconductor industry is projected to grow steadily, with expectations of a 5%-6% increase in the coming year, driven by AI and other technological advancements [38]. - The demand for networking and storage-related products is expected to remain strong, with significant growth potential in domestic manufacturing of NAND Flash and DRAM [31][33].

机构：国信证券 研究员：胡剑/胡慧/叶子/张大为 2Q25 营收超指引上限，预计3Q25 营收环比增长。公司2Q25 实现销售收入22.09 亿美元（YoY +16.2%，QoQ -1.7%），高于指引(QoQ -4%至-6%)上限，晶圆收入占总收入的94.6%；毛利率为20.4% (YoY +6.4pct，QoQ -2.1pct)，超指引(18%-20%)上限；归母净利润为1.32 亿美元(YoY -19.5%，QoQ -29.5%)；折旧摊销金额为8.79 亿美元(YoY +10.2%，QoQ +1.5%)。公司预计3Q25 营收环比增长 5%-7%，毛利率为18%-20%。原先公司担心的关税政策是否硬着陆、市场刺激和急建库存是否透支了未 来的需求，以及大宗商品需求是否在新关税引起的价格上涨后衰退，这些目前并没有发生。 二季度产能利用率环比提高2.9pct，创3Q22 以来新高。公司2Q25 付运折合8 英寸晶圆239 万片(YoY +13.2%，QoQ +4.3%)，产能利用率上升至92.5%(YoY+7.3pct，QoQ +2.9pct)，创3Q22 以来新高。在晶 圆收入中12 英寸晶圆贡献76.1 ...

Core Viewpoint - SMIC's Q2 2025 performance exceeded expectations in terms of revenue but fell short in net profit, leading to a negative market reaction despite positive revenue growth [1][3][8] Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue reached $2.209 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and a slight quarter-on-quarter decline of 1.7%, outperforming the company's previous guidance of a 4%-6% decline [1] - Net profit for the quarter was $132 million, a 29.5% decrease from Q1, and significantly below market expectations of $167 million [3][8] - Gross margin was reported at 20.4%, exceeding the upper limit of the company's guidance [1] - Capacity utilization rose to 92.5%, the highest in nearly six quarters [1][6] Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, SMIC's stock price fell, with A-shares opening down 2.9% and H-shares dropping over 4%, resulting in a market value loss of over 20 billion RMB in one day [1][3] - The market's pessimism was primarily triggered by the company's guidance for future performance during the earnings call [1][8] Operational Insights - The company experienced a "volume increase but price decrease" scenario, with wafer shipments up 4.3% quarter-on-quarter but average selling prices (ASP) down 6.4% [3] - The increase in low-priced 8-inch products contributed to the decline in overall ASP, while rising depreciation and R&D costs further pressured profitability [3][4] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - Capital expenditures for H1 2025 totaled $3.3 billion, with Q2 spending at $1.9 billion, a 35% increase quarter-on-quarter, and an annual plan exceeding $7 billion [3][8] - Management indicated that ASP increases would not occur unless competitors raised prices, and they aim to support clients in maintaining market share [4][7] - The company expects Q3 revenue to grow by 6% to 11% quarter-on-quarter, despite concerns about visibility for Q4 performance due to potential adjustments in smartphone market demand [7][9] Industry Context - SMIC remains the largest foundry in mainland China, with a stable revenue contribution from the domestic market at 84% [4] - The automotive and industrial chip revenue share increased to 10.6%, while smartphones and consumer electronics accounted for 66%, indicating weak demand in those segments [4][6] - The long-term value of SMIC is tied to the ramp-up of advanced processes and the deep integration with the domestic ecosystem, rather than short-term fluctuations in gross margin [9]

8月12日，中芯国际大宗交易成交18.24万股，成交额1614.6万元，占当日总成交额的0.33%，成交价88.52元，较市场收盘价88.52元持平。 | 交易日期 | 证券简称 | 证券代码 | 成交价(元) | 成交金额(万元) 成交量(*) 买入营业部 | | | | 卖出营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-08-12 | 中芯国际 | 688881 | 88.52 | 1327.8 | દિ | 华泰证券股份有限 公司北京雍和宫证 | 国泰海通证券股份 有限公司总部 | | | | | | | | | 券营业部 | | | | 2025-08-12 | 中芯国际 | 688981 | 88.52 | 286.8 | 3.24 | 华泰证券股份有限 | 国泰海通证券股份 | | | | | | | | | 公司北京雍和宫证 | 有限公司总部 | | | | | | | | | 去查 部 | | | ...

Core Insights - The National Big Fund holding concept rose by 1.83%, ranking fourth among concept sectors, with 34 stocks increasing in value, led by Shengke Communication, Chip Origin, and Tailin Micro, which rose by 19.27%, 9.24%, and 7.34% respectively [1][2] - The concept sector saw a net inflow of 2.169 billion yuan, with 34 stocks receiving net inflows, and 7 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan in net inflows, with Tongfu Microelectronics leading at 522 million yuan [2][3] Market Performance - The top-performing concept sectors included Brain-Computer Interface (+2.37%), Lithography Machine (+2.26%), and China AI 50 (+2.01%), while sectors like PEEK Materials (-1.58%) and Rare Earth Permanent Magnet (-1.53%) faced declines [2] - The National Big Fund holding concept was among the top gainers, with a notable increase in stock prices and significant net inflows [2] Stock Specifics - Tongfu Microelectronics had a daily increase of 4.55% with a net inflow rate of 17.13%, followed by Guoli Microelectronics and Huizhi Microelectronics with rates of 16.88% and 15.67% respectively [3][4] - Stocks such as Shengke Communication and Chip Origin saw significant price increases of 19.27% and 9.24%, indicating strong market interest [4][5]

Market Overview - The main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced a net outflow of 30.12 billion yuan, while the Sci-Tech Innovation Board saw a net inflow of 361 million yuan [1] - A total of 243 stocks had net inflows, while 344 stocks had net outflows [1] Sci-Tech Innovation Board Performance - On the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, 224 stocks rose, with two stocks, Shanghai Hejing and Cambricon, hitting the daily limit, while 359 stocks declined [1] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow were Cambricon (1.977 billion yuan), Haiguang Information (371 million yuan), and SMIC (351 million yuan) [1] Continuous Fund Flow - There are 39 stocks with continuous net inflows for more than three trading days, with Longsoft Technology leading at nine consecutive days [2] - 145 stocks experienced continuous net outflows, with the most significant outflow from Starry Planet Graphite at 15 consecutive days [2] Top Fund Inflows - The top stocks by net inflow include: - Cambricon: 197.72 million yuan, 13.07% inflow rate, 20% increase [2] - Haiguang Information: 37.14 million yuan, 5.39% inflow rate, 2.13% increase [2] - SMIC: 35.10 million yuan, 7.21% inflow rate, 1.79% increase [2] Top Fund Outflows - The stocks with the highest net outflows include: - Sino Medical: 39 million yuan outflow, 2.36% increase [1] - Dongxin Technology: 24.5 million yuan outflow [1] - Zhong无人机: 22.2 million yuan outflow [1]

恒指报收24969.68点，涨0.25%，恒生科技指数报收5439.16点，跌0.38%。芯片股走强，中芯国际、华 虹半导体涨超5%。（第一财经AI快讯） ...

摩根大通发布研报称，正在调整对中芯国际(00981)的预测，以考虑到公司因去库存而导致的第四财季 增长放缓，以及由于折旧成本上升和缺乏均价上升的压力，虽然高端晶圆比例上升，但产量降低令毛利 持续受压。因此，小摩续予中芯国际"减持"评级，目标价为36港元。该行相信，由于公司将继续扩大28 纳米及以下晶圆产能，其未来2至3年的资本开支或仍保持高位，估计达70亿至75亿美元。该行预计，公 司于第四季去库存和CIS领域的竞争加剧，短期内可能抑制毛利和均价。 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed results with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,969.68, up by 62.87 points or 0.25% [1][2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index experienced a slight decline of 0.38%, closing at 5,439.16 [1][2] - The National Enterprises Index rose by 0.32%, ending at 8,916.85 [1][2] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks exhibited varied performance, with Xiaomi increasing by 1.77% and NetEase by 1%, while Kuaishou fell over 9% [2] - Semiconductor stocks surged following rumors, with Hongguang Semiconductor rising by 11.5% and SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor both increasing by over 5% [2] - Insurance stocks performed well, with China Pacific Insurance rising over 6% due to a decrease in institutional interest rates and an increase in dividend insurance ratios [2] Declining Sectors - The rare earth and paper industries saw significant declines, while the biopharmaceutical sector experienced a high open but low close, with companies like Boan Biotechnology and LIZHU Pharmaceutical leading the losses [3] - Logistics, vocational education, and military industry stocks also faced downward pressure [3]