Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 14.34 [12][5]. Core Views - The company is undergoing a retail transformation, which is expected to solidify its operational foundation despite a forecasted decline in net profit and revenue for 2024 [1][2]. - The company is focusing on improving asset quality by actively adjusting its asset structure, which is anticipated to lead to operational improvements in the future [1][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company's net profit, operating income, and pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) are expected to decline by 4.2%, 10.9%, and 10.6% year-on-year, respectively [1]. - The proposed dividend for 2024 is RMB 0.608 per share, with a cash dividend payout ratio of 26.51% and a dividend yield of 5.08% [1]. Asset and Loan Growth - As of the end of 2024, total assets, loans, and deposits are projected to grow by 3.3%, decrease by 1.0%, and increase by 3.9%, respectively [2]. - The company has adjusted its asset structure, resulting in a 10.6% year-on-year decrease in personal loans and a 12.4% increase in corporate loans [2]. Interest Margin and Income - The net interest margin for 2024 is forecasted to be 1.87%, down by 6 basis points from the previous period [2]. - Non-interest income is expected to increase by 14.0% year-on-year, with other non-interest income rising by 68.7% [3]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is expected to remain stable at 1.06%, with a provision coverage ratio of 251% [4]. - The credit cost for 2024 is projected to be 1.56%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Valuation and Forecast - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is RMB 44.68 billion, with a projected book value per share (BVPS) of RMB 23.51, corresponding to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.61 [5][31]. - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge in retail banking, justifying a valuation premium compared to peers [5].

同时，零售贷款不良率保持平稳达1.39%，不良生成率同比下降至1.80%；拨备计提仍保持较大力度， 但同比下降了16.4%，这也意味着平安银行正强化资产质量管理、降低风险成本。 零售业务触底了吗？ 21解读丨平安银行零售"止血""造血"进行时 21世纪经济报道记者曹媛深圳报道 "血已经止住了，造血还需要过程。"3月17日，平安银行党委书记、行长冀光恒在2024年业绩发布会 上，谈及零售业务调整，"总结过去一年多的经历，我认为我们已经在战略上取得了共识并开始行动， 但零售业务改革的难度超出了我们的想象。" 在媒体、分析师出席的这场发布会上，对平安银行管理层的超半数提问皆聚焦零售改革。几乎每个问 题，冀光恒都会亲自回应或补充回答。 受市场利率下行、银行业降息让利、主动调整资产结构等内外因素影响，曾被誉为"零售黑马"的平安银 行正遭受转型阵痛。2024年营业收入为1466.95亿元，同比下降10.9%；净利润445.08亿元，同比下降 4.2%。 但从年报中也能看到一些积极信号。在资产结构调整背景下，该行高风险贷款有所下降，信用卡、消费 贷、经营贷规模均有所收缩，抵押类贷款占比较上年末提升4.0个百分点至62.8% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Bank is "Accumulate" with a target price of 13.85 CNY, maintaining the previous rating of "Accumulate" [2][3]. Core Views - The report indicates that Ping An Bank's revenue growth for 2024 is in line with expectations, while the growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders is slightly lower. The asset quality remains stable, and the peak risk pressure in retail has passed. The target price is maintained at 13.85 CNY, with an "Accumulate" rating [3][4]. Financial Summary - **Revenue**: - 2023A: 164,699 million CNY - 2024A: 146,695 million CNY (down 8.4%) - 2025E: 140,552 million CNY (down 10.9%) - 2026E: 143,905 million CNY (down 4.2%) - 2027E: 150,694 million CNY (up 2.4%) [5] - **Net Profit (attributable to shareholders)**: - 2023A: 46,455 million CNY - 2024A: 44,508 million CNY (down 4.2%) - 2025E: 44,645 million CNY (up 0.3%) - 2026E: 46,557 million CNY (up 4.3%) - 2027E: 49,408 million CNY (up 6.1%) [5] - **Net Asset Value per Share**: - 2023A: 20.74 CNY - 2024A: 21.89 CNY - 2025E: 23.46 CNY - 2026E: 25.15 CNY - 2027E: 26.97 CNY [5] - **Return on Equity**: - 2023A: 11.4% - 2024A: 10.1% - 2025E: 9.6% - 2026E: 9.3% - 2027E: 9.3% [5] Market Data - **Current Price**: 11.97 CNY - **Market Capitalization**: 232,289 million CNY - **52-week Price Range**: 9.65 - 12.88 CNY [6] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at the end of Q4 is 1.06%, consistent with the three-stage ratio. The attention rate and overdue rate have decreased slightly, indicating a stabilization in asset quality [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, Ping An Bank aims to strengthen retail, refine corporate, and specialize in interbank operations despite a slight decline in profits and narrowing net interest margin, while total assets continue to grow steadily [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Ping An Bank reported a net profit of 44.508 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%, and operating income of 146.695 billion yuan, down 10.9% year-on-year [1] - The bank's net profit decline was primarily due to a significant drop in the fourth quarter, where net profit fell to 4.779 billion yuan, a decrease of over 90 million yuan compared to the previous quarter [2] - The increase in provision for bad debts, amounting to 17 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, significantly impacted net profit [2] Asset Quality and Risk Management - Ping An Bank plans to enhance efforts in recovering non-performing assets and improve the quality of new loans while managing existing bad debts [3] - The net interest margin for 2024 was 1.87%, a decrease of 51 basis points from 2023, influenced by market interest rate declines and the reduction of high-risk retail assets [3] - The bank aims to reduce the proportion of high-risk products and increase investments in corporate and low-risk mortgage loans [4][5] Retail and Corporate Strategy - The bank's corporate loans increased by 12.4% year-on-year, while personal loans decreased by 10.6% due to the reduction of high-risk business [5] - Ping An Bank's corporate business became a major profit source, with corporate income and net profit both growing by approximately 20% year-on-year, accounting for nearly 80% of total net profit [7] - The bank plans to balance retail and corporate business development to ensure long-term competitiveness [7] Dividend Policy - For 2024, Ping An Bank announced a cash dividend of 6.08 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 11.799 billion yuan, slightly below 30% of the annual net profit [10] - The dividend policy is influenced by various factors, including previous year dividends and mid-term dividends, which have created some capital pressure [11] - The bank maintains a long-term dividend payout ratio target of 20%-30%, balancing shareholder returns with capital needs [12]

Core Viewpoint - Ping An Bank is undergoing a significant transformation in its retail banking strategy, shifting from high-risk, high-reward operations to a more balanced approach focused on medium risk and medium returns, which has resulted in substantial financial pain and challenges [1][2] Financial Performance - In the previous year, Ping An Bank's retail business generated an operating profit of 49.219 billion yuan, but faced credit and asset impairment losses of 48.729 billion yuan, leading to a net profit of only 289 million yuan, a 94.8% decrease year-on-year, representing just 0.6% of total profits [1] - As of the end of Q4 2024, the retail non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was 1.39%, a decrease of 4 basis points quarter-on-quarter, indicating improved asset quality [5] Retail Strategy and Adjustments - The bank's management has confirmed that it will continue to focus on retail banking, with a new strategy emphasizing risk control and a unified management approach, moving away from high-risk products [3][4] - The core of the retail reform is to develop medium-risk, medium-return products, particularly in the consumer and small business sectors, with ongoing internal testing and pilot programs [4][5] Management Changes - Key personnel changes have occurred, including the reassignment of the assistant president in charge of retail, reflecting a strategic shift in leadership to better align with the bank's new direction [4] Corporate Banking Performance - As of the end of 2024, personal loan balances decreased by 10.6% to 1.767168 trillion yuan, while corporate loan balances increased by 12.4% to 1.606935 trillion yuan, indicating a shift towards corporate banking [7] - The bank aims to maintain strong corporate lending growth in 2025, focusing on high-quality enterprises and specific industries, with a significant portion of new loans directed towards infrastructure and technology sectors [8] Interest Margin Management - The net interest margin for 2024 was 1.87%, a decrease of 51 basis points from the previous year, with a focus on reducing funding costs and improving asset quality to stabilize margins [9][10] - The bank aims to maintain a net interest margin above 1.7%, which is higher than the industry average by 30-40 basis points, despite overall pressure on margins in the banking sector [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 11.97 CNY and a reasonable value of 17.91 CNY [2]. Core Views - The company is undergoing a transformation period, with retail growth slowing and declining yields, but long-term risk preference adjustments are favorable for sustainable operations. The expected growth rates for the company's net profit attributable to shareholders are 0.67% and 3.00% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [9]. - The report highlights a continuous adjustment in business operations, with a significant increase in corporate loans by 17.0% year-on-year, while retail loans decreased by 10.6% [8][9]. - The net interest margin (NIM) is under pressure, with a reported NIM of 1.87% for 2024, down 51 basis points year-on-year [4][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue, pre-provision operating profit (PPOP), and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.9%, 10.8%, and 4.2% year-on-year, respectively [8][11]. - The company experienced a decline in net interest income, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.8% [16]. - The non-interest income saw a significant increase of 14.0% year-on-year, driven by a strong performance in other non-interest income, which grew by 68.7% [16]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.06% at the end of 2024, with retail NPLs at 1.39% and corporate NPLs at 0.70% [4][11]. - The provision coverage ratio was reported at 250.71% at the end of 2024, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [4][11]. Market Performance - The company's stock performance relative to the market shows a decline of 12% from March 2024 to March 2025, compared to the CSI 300 index [6]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that as the asset structure adjustment is completed and liability cost control continues, the decline in net interest margin is expected to narrow [4]. - The economic recovery is projected to improve investment returns in the bond market, although there are concerns about interest rate risks and the impact of non-interest income on performance [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 11.97 CNY and a reasonable value of 17.91 CNY [2]. Core Views - The company is undergoing a transformation period, with retail growth slowing and declining yields. However, long-term risk preference adjustments are favorable for sustainable operations. The expected growth rates for the company's net profit attributable to shareholders are 0.67% and 3.00% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.16 CNY and 2.23 CNY per share [9]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's revenue, PPOP, and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.9%, 10.8%, and 4.2% year-on-year, respectively. The growth rates for these metrics improved compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [8][11]. - The loan scale decreased by 1.0% year-on-year by the end of 2024, with retail high-risk loans being reduced significantly. Retail loans fell by 10.6%, primarily due to reductions in consumer loans (70.6 billion CNY), credit cards (83.4 billion CNY), and operational loans (79.1 billion CNY). Conversely, corporate loans increased by 17.0% year-on-year [8][9]. - The net interest margin for 2024 was 1.87%, a decrease of 51 basis points year-on-year, influenced by market changes and proactive asset structure adjustments [8][11]. Asset Quality and Risk Indicators - By the end of 2024, the non-performing loan ratio was 1.06%, remaining stable year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. The retail non-performing loan ratio was 1.39%, showing slight fluctuations, while the corporate non-performing loan ratio was 0.70%, reflecting increased risk exposure in manufacturing and real estate sectors [4][11]. - The provision coverage ratio at the end of 2024 was 250.71%, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [4][11]. Market Performance - The company's stock performance relative to the market showed a decline of 12% from March 2024 to March 2025, compared to the CSI 300 index [6].

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Zijin Mining, Weichuang Electric, Ideal Auto, and Honghua Wisdom Energy [22][24][26][36] Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of recovery, with consumer demand beginning to stabilize, particularly in the real estate and automotive sectors [2][4] - The report highlights a positive outlook for the consumer sector driven by government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption, including the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" [17] - The technology sector, particularly companies like NVIDIA, is expected to benefit from upcoming product launches and advancements in chip technology [28] Summary by Sections Macro Overview - The report indicates that the U.S. economic growth expectations are being downgraded, while Germany's fiscal expansion plans are gaining traction [2] - Consumer demand is showing marginal improvement compared to the previous year, with signs of recovery in housing transactions and automotive sales [2][4] Sector Analysis - The consumer sector is expected to see a shift from "repair growth" to "endogenous expansion," with a focus on service consumption and quality improvement [17] - The report emphasizes the potential for structural investment opportunities in sectors such as AI-driven consumption and the aging population market [17][18] Company-Specific Insights - Zijin Mining is projected to maintain strong growth with a forecasted CAGR of 14% for net profit from 2025 to 2028 [22] - Weichuang Electric is recognized for its leadership in industrial control and is expected to expand into new markets, maintaining a "Buy" rating [22] - Ideal Auto's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with new models set to launch in 2025 [24] - Honghua Wisdom Energy reported a substantial increase in core profits, with a projected dividend yield exceeding 6% [29] Market Trends - The A-share market is anticipated to continue its upward trend, supported by a favorable macro environment and active market sentiment [7] - The report notes that the technology sector remains a key focus for investment, with expectations of strong performance in the coming quarters [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Bank is maintained at Buy-A with a 6-month target price of 14.17 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 11.97 CNY [4]. Core Views - Ping An Bank's revenue growth is under pressure due to ongoing transformation and restructuring, with a reported revenue decline of 10.93% year-on-year for 2024 [1]. - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.19% year-on-year, indicating a divergence between revenue and profit growth [1]. - The bank's asset quality shows signs of improvement, with a decrease in the non-performing loan generation rate to 1.8% in 2024, down 9 basis points year-on-year [10][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Ping An Bank's operating revenue was 146.695 billion CNY, with a projected revenue decline of 7.76% for 2025 [14]. - The bank's net profit for 2024 was 44.508 billion CNY, with an expected slight increase to 44.899 billion CNY in 2025 [14]. - The bank's net interest margin for Q4 2024 was reported at 1.70%, down 41 basis points year-on-year [3][9]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.06% as of Q4 2024, with improvements in various loan categories [33]. - The bank has increased its provision coverage ratio, maintaining a stable credit cost despite the pressure on profit growth [10][12]. Retail Business - The retail business is undergoing structural adjustments, with a focus on reducing high-risk loans, leading to a decline in retail credit [2][12]. - The bank's retail assets under management (AUM) showed slight growth, benefiting from improved market conditions in Q4 2024 [11][37]. Credit Growth - New credit issuance in Q4 2024 was 5.7 billion CNY, indicating a slight recovery compared to previous quarters, although retail credit remains under pressure [20]. - The bank's overall credit growth is expected to remain weak in 2025, with ongoing efforts to reduce high-risk retail loans [12][13].

证 券 研 究 报 告 平安银行（000001）2024 年报点评 推荐（维持） 结构调整仍在进行，高端客户基本盘稳 目标价：13.28 元 事项： ❖ 3 月 14 日晚，平安银行披露 2024 年年报，全年实现营业收入 1466.95 亿元， 同比下降 10.9%；归母净利润 445.08 亿元，同比-4.2%。不良率 1.06%，环比 持平，拨备覆盖率 251%，环比持平。 评论： 公司研究 全国性股份制银行Ⅲ 2025 年 03 月 16 日 | | | 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：贾靖 邮箱：jiajing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040004 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：林宛慧 邮箱：linwanhui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524110001 公司基本数据 | 总股本(万股) | 1,940,591.82 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股(万股) | 1,940,561.75 | | 总市值(亿元) | 2,322.89 | | ...