Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][10]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 19.07 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, and a net profit of 4.75 billion RMB, up 24.5% year-on-year [4]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 23.9 billion RMB in 2024, 26.5 billion RMB in 2025, and 29.9 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 18.0%, 10.7%, and 13.2% respectively [3][4]. - The report highlights the company's strong brand recognition and operational resilience, particularly in its home market, while also noting the challenges faced in expanding outside its primary region [5]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecast: - 2022: Revenue of 16.71 billion RMB, net profit of 3.14 billion RMB - 2023: Revenue of 20.25 billion RMB, net profit of 4.59 billion RMB - 2024E: Revenue of 23.90 billion RMB, net profit of 5.67 billion RMB - 2025E: Revenue of 26.45 billion RMB, net profit of 6.50 billion RMB - 2026E: Revenue of 29.94 billion RMB, net profit of 7.68 billion RMB [3][4]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is projected to grow from 8.68 RMB in 2023 to 14.54 RMB in 2026, reflecting a strong upward trend [3][4]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 21.32% in 2023 to 24.43% in 2026, indicating enhanced profitability [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 26.81, projected to decrease to 12.82 by 2026, suggesting the stock may become more attractive over time [3][4]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 5.72 in 2023 to 3.13 in 2026, indicating potential undervaluation as the company grows [3][4].

公 司 报 告 公 司 季 报 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024年10月31日 食品饮料 古井贡酒(000596.SZ) 环比降速，稳扎稳打 推荐 ( 维持) 事项： 股价:186.31元 | --- | --- | |------------------------|----------------------------------| | 行业 | 食品饮料 | | 公司网址 | www.gujing.com | | 大股东 / 持股 | 安徽古井集团有限责任公司 /51.34% | | 实际控制人 | 亳州市人民政府国有资产监督管理委 | | | 员会 | | 总股本 ( 百万股 ) | 529 | | 流通 A 股 ( 百万股 ) | 409 | | 流通 B/H 股 ( 百万股 ) | 120 | | 总市值 ( 亿元 ) | 891 | | 流通 A 股市值 ( 亿元 ) | 761 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 45.20 | | 资产负债率 (%) | 34.2 | | 行情走势图 | | 相关研究报告 【平安证券】古井贡酒（000596.SZ）*半年报点评* 市场稳扎稳打，利润 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with revenue of 19.07 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, and a net profit of 4.75 billion RMB, up 24.5% year-on-year [5]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 23.9 billion RMB in 2024, representing an 18.0% increase, and net profits of 5.67 billion RMB, a 23.4% increase [4][6]. - The report highlights the company's strong brand recognition and operational resilience, particularly in its home market, while also noting the challenges in expanding its presence in external markets [6]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2022: Revenue of 16.71 billion RMB, net profit of 3.14 billion RMB - 2023: Revenue of 20.25 billion RMB, net profit of 4.59 billion RMB - 2024E: Revenue of 23.90 billion RMB, net profit of 5.67 billion RMB - 2025E: Revenue of 26.45 billion RMB, net profit of 6.50 billion RMB - 2026E: Revenue of 29.94 billion RMB, net profit of 7.68 billion RMB [4][6]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - The company’s net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 22.3%, consistent with the previous year, while gross margin decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 77.9% [6]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 21.32% in 2023 to 24.43% by 2026 [4]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decline from 26.81 in 2023 to 12.82 by 2026, indicating a potentially attractive valuation as earnings grow [4].

Financial Performance - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 reached ¥5,262,915,448.33, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.36%[2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was ¥1,173,702,231.04, up 13.60% compared to the same period last year[2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for Q3 2024 was ¥1,159,067,061.02, reflecting a 14.52% increase year-on-year[2] - Total operating revenue for Q3 2024 reached ¥19,068,608,990.68, an increase of 19.5% compared to ¥15,952,670,483.87 in the same period last year[15] - Net profit for Q3 2024 was ¥4,896,859,338.22, up 25.3% from ¥3,910,758,500.21 in Q3 2023[16] - Total comprehensive income for Q3 2024 was ¥4,900,827,729.90, compared to ¥3,904,598,491.91 in the same quarter last year[17] - The company reported a total operating cost of ¥12,427,587,820.52, which is an increase of 15.6% from ¥10,754,223,608.52 in Q3 2023[16] Assets and Equity - Total assets at the end of Q3 2024 amounted to ¥37,854,450,331.42, which is a 6.87% increase from the end of the previous year[2] - Shareholders' equity attributable to the parent company reached ¥23,894,550,278.19, marking an 11.01% increase compared to the end of last year[2] - Total current assets increased to CNY 26,481,216,204.64 from CNY 25,508,066,655.36, reflecting a growth of approximately 3.8%[12] - Total assets reached CNY 37,854,450,331.42, up from CNY 35,420,907,274.99, indicating an increase of about 6.9%[14] - The total equity attributable to shareholders of the parent company increased to ¥23,894,550,278.19 from ¥21,525,309,609.44 year-over-year[15] Earnings and Returns - The basic earnings per share for Q3 2024 was ¥2.22, an increase of 13.85% year-on-year[2] - The weighted average return on equity for the year-to-date was 20.54%, up 1.87% from the same period last year[2] - Earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 2024 was ¥8.98, compared to ¥7.21 in the previous year, reflecting a 24.6% increase[17] Cash Flow - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of ¥5,344,200,057.86, which decreased by 6.56% year-on-year[2] - Operating cash inflow totaled CNY 21,711,376,121.24, an increase of 16.6% compared to CNY 18,597,211,612.40 in the previous year[18] - Operating cash outflow amounted to CNY 16,367,176,063.38, up from CNY 12,877,585,826.22, reflecting a 27.5% increase[18] - Net cash flow from operating activities was CNY 5,344,200,057.86, a decrease of 6.6% from CNY 5,719,625,786.18[18] - Cash inflow from investment activities was CNY 747,558,204.45, down 60.3% from CNY 1,881,579,843.83[18] - Cash outflow from investment activities reached CNY 1,927,953,322.37, a decrease of 22.0% compared to CNY 2,471,820,622.31[18] - Net cash flow from financing activities was -CNY 2,425,692,117.32, worsening from -CNY 1,576,361,387.31 in the previous year[19] Shareholder Information - The total number of ordinary shareholders at the end of the reporting period was 38,101[6] - The largest shareholder, Anhui Gujing Group Co., Ltd., holds a 51.34% stake in the company[6] Liabilities - Total liabilities amounted to ¥12,957,265,996.69, slightly down from ¥13,006,634,312.91 in the previous year[15] - The company’s non-current liabilities totaled CNY 12,410,716,997.55, slightly up from CNY 12,408,612,368.81, showing a marginal increase[14] - The accounts payable decreased to CNY 2,547,190,695.13 from CNY 2,814,192,071.24, a decline of approximately 9.5%[14] - The company has a strong liquidity position with current liabilities totaling CNY 12,410,716,997.55[14]

古井贡酒 20240925 摘要 • 古井贡酒是 220 至 250 元价位段中国白酒市场的第一名，其单品"古 8" 占公司总收入的 27%，相当于一个六七十亿的大单品。 • 古井贡酒近年来在资本市场上表现出色，其独特阿尔法属性主要源自安徽 区域红利和内部管理激励机制。公司净利率从 18%-19%提升至 23%-24%， 预计未来仍有提升空间。 • 古井贡酒在安徽市场具有独特性，通过打赢地方次高端价位决战，如今国 20 系列已在安徽一枝独秀，为其下一步板块化市场和全国化扩张奠定了 基础。 • 古井贡酒未来将继续依托省内引领结构升级保收入，通过费用率收缩实现 利润弹性，并通过全国化扩张成为汇聚龙头。 • 古井贡酒在产品定价策略上，通过推出新版本来调整价格策略，避免直接 降价带来的品牌损害。例如，2009 年推出的献礼版有效调整了市场价格， 并借助品牌联想和省内操作，使得献礼版在第一年就占据了古井年份营销 收入的 65%至 70%。 • 古井贡酒采用"产品杠杆理论"，通过提升各个产品之间的联动性来对抗 产品周期。具体做法包括将不同年份的白酒设计成相似的棕色包装，以增 强品牌一致性，并采用统一的视觉元素，使得消费者 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a stable double-digit revenue growth with a total operating revenue of 13.806 billion yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.07%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.573 billion yuan, up 28.54% year-on-year [6][7]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw an operating revenue of 5.519 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.79%, with a net profit of 1.507 billion yuan, an increase of 24.57% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company's strategy of "nationalization and next-high-end" is progressing steadily, aiming to achieve a target of 30 billion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 13.806 billion yuan, a 22.07% increase year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.573 billion yuan, up 28.54% year-on-year, and the non-recurring net profit was 3.541 billion yuan, increasing by 29.64% [6][7]. - In Q2 2024, the operating revenue was 5.519 billion yuan, a 16.79% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 1.507 billion yuan, reflecting a 24.57% increase year-on-year [6][7]. Product and Regional Performance - The product performance showed significant growth, with the aged original liquor generating 10.787 billion yuan (up 23.12% year-on-year), and the Gujing Gongjiu product line reaching 1.238 billion yuan (up 11.47% year-on-year) [6][7]. - Regionally, the North China market performed well with revenue of 1.109 billion yuan (up 35.1% year-on-year), while the Central China market generated 11.87 billion yuan (up 21.34% year-on-year) [6][7]. Profitability Metrics - The company experienced a faster profit growth rate than revenue, with a gross margin increase of 2.72 percentage points to 80.5% in Q2 2024. The net profit margin increased by 1.7 percentage points to 27.3% [6][7]. - The overall expense ratio showed improvement, with a notable decrease in financial expense ratio by 3.13 percentage points [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 10.96 yuan and 13.67 yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15 and 12 times based on the current stock price [7].

上 市 公 司 食品饮料 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 09 月 01 日 古井贡酒 (000596) ——24H1 点评：业绩符合预期，产品结构继续提升 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 08 月 30 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 172.02 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 298.88/156.64 | | 市净率 | 3.9 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 2.62 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 70,287 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 2,842.21/8,348.48 | | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 06 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 42.98 | | 资产负债率 % | 35.10 | | 总股本 /流通 A 股（百万） ...

[Table_Main] 公司研究|日常消费|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 古井贡酒(000596)公司点评报告 2024 年 09 月 04 日 [Table_Title] Q2 业绩增 25%，年份原浆引领增长 ——古井贡酒 2024 年中报点评 [Table_Summary] 事件 公司公告 2024 年中报。24H1，公司实现总营收 138.06 亿元，同比+22.07%， 归母净利 35.73 亿元，同比+28.54%，扣非归母净利 35.41 亿元，同比 +29.64%。24Q2，公司实现总营收 55.19 亿元，同比+16.79%，归母净利 15.07 亿元，同比+24.57%，扣非归母净利 14.91 亿元，同比+25.68%。 年份原浆持续引领高增，量价齐升 1 ） 分 业 务 看 ： 24H1 ， 公 司 白 酒 / 酒 店 / 其 他 业 务 分 别 实 现 收 入 134.28/0.41/3.36 亿元，同比分别+22.29%/-5.99%/+17.75%。 2）年份原浆持续保持高势能，公司白酒量价齐升。分产品看，24H1，年份 原浆/古井贡酒/黄鹤楼及其他白酒分别实现收入 107. ...

公 司 研 究 2024 年 09 月 03 日 公司点评 买入/上调 古井贡酒(000596) 目标价: 256.22 昨收盘:165.20 古井贡酒：业绩符合预期，产品结构持续提升 ◼ 走势比较 (50%) (40%) (30%) (20%) (10%) 0% 23/9/4 23/11/1524/1/2624/4/724/6/1824/8/29 古井贡酒 沪深300 ◼ 股票数据 总股本/流通(亿股) 5.29/4.09 总市值/流通(亿元) 873.25/675.67 12 个月内最高/最低价 (元) 298.88/156.64 相关研究报告 <<双百亿目标顺利达成，净利率稳步 上升>>--2024-04-30 <<古井贡酒：Q3 利润超预期，产品结 构持续提升>>--2023-10-30 <<古井贡酒：经营效率延续改善，业 绩弹性持续释放>>--2023-09-03 证券分析师：郭梦婕 电话： E-MAIL：guomj@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523080002 研究助理：林叙希 电话： E-MAIL：linxx@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编号：S11901240300 ...

公司报告 | 半年报点评 年份原浆升级势能延续，Q2 利润弹性持续释放 古井贡酒（000596） 证券研究报告 2024 年 09 月 03 日 投资评级 行业 食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 6 个月评级 买入（维持评级） 当前价格 168.1 元 目标价格 元 【业绩】2024Q2 公司收入/归母净利润分别为 55.19/15.07 亿元（同比 +16.79%/+24.57%）。 年份原浆奠定增长基本盘，黄鹤楼低基数下贡献增长弹性。 24H1 公司酒类业务营收 134.28 亿元，同比+22.29%，其中年份原浆/古井 贡酒 / 黄鹤 楼 及其 他 分别 贡 献 营收 107.87/12.38/14.03 亿元（ 同比 +23.12%/+11.47%/+26.58%）。24H1 年份原浆占比提升 0.54pcts 至 80.33%， 年份原浆奠定增长基本盘。量价齐升推动营收增长，24H1 公司酒类销量同 比+12.75%至 7.36 万吨，吨价同比+8.46%至 18.25 万元/吨；其中年份原浆 销量同比+16.64%至 4.20 万吨，吨价同比+5.56%至 25.65 万元/吨，年份原 浆量增为主，同时吨价稳步提 ...