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证券研究报告 | 2024年10月30日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 燕京啤酒（000729.SZ） 优于大市 中国第四大啤酒企业，深化改革促进效益释放 国内第四大啤酒企业，深化改革促复兴。燕京啤酒股份有限公司（以下简称 "公司"）主营啤酒业务，2023 年产销量排名中国啤酒行业第四。公司旗下 有燕京品牌、漓泉啤酒、惠泉啤酒、雪鹿啤酒四大品牌，在北京、广西、内 蒙古市场享有高市场份额。历史上，公司曾通过改革销售模式实现销量快速 提升，成为当时国产啤酒第一品牌，但此后在行业竞争与转型中掉队。2022 年新董事长引领公司加速改革步伐，明确"二次创业，复兴燕京"战略，目 前全面深化改革的效果正逐步释放。 存量竞争时代龙头合力推动高端化，中长期行业仍将延续高端化发展主线。 我国啤酒行业已为存量竞争市场，但产品结构升级的空间仍然充足。合计占 据九成以上市场份额的五大啤酒龙头已达成高端化发展共识，共同重点发力 8 元以上（大高档）细分市场，通过提升高端产品销量占比来实现盈利能力 提升。需求端，啤酒作为高性价比酒类，档次升级的成本较小，消费者对于 价位小幅提升以获得档次提升的接受度较高。虽然 2023 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer (000729) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 12.85 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.29 billion yuan, up 34.7% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.8 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 530 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.8% [1] - The company's sales volume for the first three quarters reached 3.45 million tons, a 0.5% increase year-on-year, outperforming the industry average [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 45.1%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 11.8% for the first three quarters [2] - The company maintained a stable ton price of 3726 yuan/ton in Q3 2024, with a slight year-on-year increase of 3% [1][2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is committed to the U8 product strategy nationwide, aiming to capture market share in weaker markets and enhance product structure [3] - Marketing innovations are being implemented to achieve brand rejuvenation and increase brand influence [3] - Ongoing management reforms are expected to enhance operational efficiency and drive future performance [3] Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.34 yuan, 0.43 yuan, and 0.50 yuan respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 31x, 24x, and 21x [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to Yanjing Beer, with a target price of 12.00 CNY, compared to the last closing price of 10.50 CNY [1]. Core Views - Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of 12.846 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.47%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.288 billion CNY, up 34.73% year-on-year [1]. - The third quarter revenue was 4.800 billion CNY, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.19%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 530 million CNY, up 19.84% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s sales volume and price per ton for the first three quarters were 3.447 million tons and 3,726 CNY/ton, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 0.5% and 3.0% [1]. - The report highlights that Yanjing Beer’s sales growth outperformed the industry, with the U8 brand's national expansion progressing steadily, and anticipates continued double-digit growth in certain regions [1]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the projected revenue is 14.961 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 5.27%. The net profit is expected to be 897 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 39.09% [2]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.32 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 33.00 [2]. - The gross profit margin for the third quarter of 2024 reached 47.99%, a slight increase of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Operational Efficiency - The report indicates that the company has established its first digital intelligent procurement platform, which has contributed to a decrease in the average procurement price of raw materials [1]. - The report also notes improvements in profitability, with the net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 at 11.79%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a total revenue of 12.846 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.288 billion yuan, up 34.7% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.261 billion yuan, reflecting a 45.7% increase year-on-year [5]. - In Q3 2024, the company recorded a total revenue of 4.800 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 530 million yuan, up 19.8% year-on-year [5]. - The company’s beer sales reached 3.4473 million kiloliters in the first three quarters, a 0.5% increase year-on-year, outperforming the industry average decline of 1.5% [5]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 45.1%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 maintaining a gross margin of 48.0% [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s operating expenses ratio decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 25.2% in Q3 2024, indicating effective cost control and operational efficiency improvements [6]. - The company’s net profit margin and net profit margin excluding non-recurring items increased by 1.8 percentage points and 1.9 percentage points to 11.0% and 10.8%, respectively [6]. - The company’s sales cash collection was stable, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% to 5.009 billion yuan in Q3 2024 [6]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to have EPS of 0.34, 0.45, and 0.56 yuan per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7][11]. - The report suggests a reasonable valuation range of 10.40 to 12.25 yuan based on a 12-15 times EV/EBITDA multiple for 2024 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer (000729.SZ) [1] Core Views - The company has shown stable revenue performance, with cost control leading to profit elasticity. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 12.846 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.73% [1] - The report anticipates that the company's revenue will grow from 14.213 billion yuan in 2023 to 16.288 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.5% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 645 million yuan in 2023 to 1.392 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022A: 13,202 million yuan - 2023A: 14,213 million yuan - 2024E: 14,854 million yuan - 2025E: 15,716 million yuan - 2026E: 16,288 million yuan - Growth Rate: 2023A to 2024E is 4.5% [2][3] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2022A: 352 million yuan - 2023A: 645 million yuan - 2024E: 967 million yuan - 2025E: 1,209 million yuan - 2026E: 1,392 million yuan - Growth Rate: 2023A to 2024E is 50% [2][3] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.23 yuan - 2024E: 0.34 yuan - 2025E: 0.43 yuan - 2026E: 0.49 yuan [2][3] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: 2024E is projected at 38.9% - Net Margin: 2024E is projected at 8.3% - Return on Equity (ROE): 2024E is projected at 6.1% [3] Market Position and Trends - The company has experienced a stable sales volume with a slight increase in beer sales, reaching 114.24 million kiloliters in Q3 2024, a year-on-year growth of 0.19% [1] - The average revenue per ton of beer is expected to grow to 4,202 yuan per kiloliter by Q3 2024, reflecting a 2.97% increase compared to H1 [1] - The report indicates that the company is benefiting from cost reductions and improved operational efficiency, which are expected to continue driving profit growth [1][2]

公 司 报 告 公 司 季 报 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024年10月28日 食品饮料 燕京啤酒(000729.SZ) U8引领，盈利改善逻辑持续兑现 推荐 ( 维持) 事项： 股价:10.5元 | --- | --- | |------------------------|----------------------------------| | 行业 | 食品饮料 | | 公司网址 | www.yanjing.com.cn | | 大股东 / 持股 | 北京燕京啤酒投资有限公司 /57.40% | | 实际控制人 | 北京市人民政府 | | 总股本 ( 百万股 ) | 2,819 | | 流通 A 股 ( 百万股 ) | 2,510 | | 流通 B/H 股 ( 百万股 ) | | | 总市值 ( 亿元 ) | 296 | | 流通 A 股市值 ( 亿元 ) | 264 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 5.27 | | 资产负债率 (%) | 36.2 | | 行情走势图 | | 证券分析师 | --- | --- | |--------|-------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][6][8] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 12.846 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.47%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.288 billion yuan, up 34.73% year-on-year [1][5] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.800 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.19% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 530 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.84% [1][5] - The company continues to improve its profitability, with a net profit margin increasing to 11.0% in Q3 2024, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [1][5] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve total revenue of 14.869 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.006 billion yuan, representing a significant increase of 56.1% [2][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.36 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 29, 23, and 19 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][6][8] - The company has been implementing reforms that are expected to continue to release benefits, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement [1][5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer with a target price of 14 yuan [1] Core Views - Yanjing Beer achieved revenue of 12.846 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.47%, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 1.288 billion yuan, up 34.73% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 4.8 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.19% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company grew by 19.84% to 530 million yuan [1] - The company's flagship product, U8, continues to show strong growth momentum, with contract liabilities increasing by 22% year-on-year to 1.2 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2024 [1] - Yanjing Beer's cost control and efficiency improvements have driven profit growth, with a net profit margin of 11.0% in Q3 2024, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company's reform initiatives and product upgrades are expected to further enhance profitability, with potential for mid-to-long-term profit growth [1] Financial Performance - Yanjing Beer's gross margin in Q3 2024 was 48.0%, with a ton cost of 2,185 yuan per kiloliter, both remaining stable year-on-year [1] - The company's sales/management/R&D expense ratios were 13.9%/10.9%/1.7% respectively, with sales and R&D expense ratios improving year-on-year [1] - The actual tax rate decreased by 3.0 percentage points to 12.0% in Q3 2024, contributing to profit growth [1] - The minority interest ratio decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 17.5%, reflecting improved performance of wholly-owned subsidiaries [1] Market and Industry Analysis - The beer industry faced weak demand in Q3 2024, with national beer production declining by 10% and 3.3% in July and August respectively, before rebounding by 1.4% in September [1] - Yanjing Beer outperformed the industry with a 0.2% year-on-year increase in sales volume to 1.142 million kiloliters in Q3 2024 [1] - The company's average selling price remained stable at 4,202 yuan per kiloliter in Q3 2024, with a slight slowdown in price growth due to increased sales efforts [1] Future Outlook - Yanjing Beer is expected to reduce losses in Q4 2024, with a projected net profit margin of 8-9% for the full year, compared to the industry leader's 13% in 2023 [1] - The company's focus on the mid-to-high-end market segment, particularly the 8-10 yuan price range, is expected to drive future growth [1] - Yanjing Beer's reform initiatives and cost optimization efforts are anticipated to continue driving profitability improvements [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance in the coming years [2]. Core Views - Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of 12.85 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and a net profit of 1.29 billion yuan, up 34.7% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on cost control and product upgrades, which have contributed to improved profit margins despite a slowdown in sales volume and price growth [1][3]. - The introduction of the flagship product, Yanjing U8, has been a significant driver for sales growth, particularly in the mid-to-high-end market segment [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, Yanjing Beer achieved a revenue of 4.8 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 530 million yuan, reflecting a 19.8% increase year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 45.09%, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.07 percentage points, attributed to product mix upgrades [1]. - The sales expense ratio decreased to 11.98% for the first three quarters, down 0.79 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost management [1]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue nurturing its core product, Yanjing U8, and expects to benefit from the gradual recovery of consumer demand and ongoing reform benefits [3]. - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 985 million yuan, 1.274 billion yuan, and 1.551 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 6% to 7% due to current weak beer consumption [2]. Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 0.35 yuan, 0.45 yuan, and 0.55 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 30x, 23x, and 19x [2].