燕京啤酒(000729.SZ)2024 年半年度业绩预告点评 扣非后利润高增,改革成效加速释放 2024 年 07 月 13 日 ➢ 事件:2024 年 7 月 11 日,公司发布 2024 年半年度业绩预告。预计 24H1 公司归母净利润达 7.19-7.97 亿元,同比+40%-55%,取中值同比+47%;扣非 归母净利润达 7.00-7.75 亿元,同比+60%-77%,取中值同比+68%。经测算, 24Q2 公司归母净利润达 6.17-6.94 亿元,同比+37%-54%,取中值同比+46%; 扣非归母净利润达 5.97-6.72 亿元,同比+57%-76%,取中值同比+66%。 ➢ 预计 24Q2 收入环比提速,成本下行叠加改革持续显效驱动业绩高增。我们 预计 Q2 收入环比提速,一方面进入旺季公司积极开展市场开拓及销售推广工作, 叠加销量基数回落(23Q1/Q2 销量增速分别为 13%/2%),预计销量环比提速, 量增跑赢行业大盘(根据统计局,24 年 4、5 月我国啤酒产量分别同比-10%、- 6%),同时预计 U8 维持前期增势,驱动产品结构稳步提升。利润端,得益于大 麦等原材料价格下行及一系 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer (000729) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 719 million to 797 million yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40% to 55% [5] - The report highlights the strong growth of the U8 flagship product and the effectiveness of internal reforms, indicating a promising growth trajectory for the company [5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Data - Closing price: 9.53 yuan - Market capitalization: 23,916 million yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 1.9 [2] Financial Performance - H1 2024 net profit forecast: 719 million to 797 million yuan, with a growth rate of 40% to 55% year-on-year - Q2 2024 net profit forecast: 617 million to 694 million yuan, with a growth rate of 37% to 54% year-on-year - H1 2024 net profit excluding non-recurring items: 700 million to 775 million yuan, with a growth rate of 60% to 77% year-on-year [5][6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected net profit for 2024-2026: 935 million, 1,150 million, and 1,381 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 45%, 23%, and 20% [5][7] - Expected revenue for 2024: 15,122 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.4% [7] Product Strategy - The company is focusing on strengthening the U8 product as a core national flagship and expanding its product matrix with regional and specialty products [5] - Anticipated mid-single-digit growth in sales for H1 2024, with a projected increase in Q2 sales growth compared to Q1 [5][6] Cost Management - The report notes a decrease in raw material costs, particularly malt, contributing to improved profit margins [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 719-797 million yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40%-55% [3] - The second quarter of 2024 continues the strong performance from Q1, with net profit expected to be 617-694 million yuan, marking a historical high for a single quarter since the company's listing [3] - The growth is attributed to management reforms, increased sales of the Yanjing U8 product, and a significant decrease in raw material costs [3][4] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The total revenue is projected to grow from 14,213 million yuan in 2023 to 17,435 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.44% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 644.71 million yuan in 2023 to 1,560.28 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 25.74% [2] - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 970 million yuan, 1,240 million yuan, and 1,560 million yuan respectively, with corresponding net profit margins of 6.3%, 7.5%, and 8.9% [4] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 9.53 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 26.86 billion yuan [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 41.66 in 2023 to 17.22 in 2026 [9] Basic Data - The company has a total asset value of 21.53 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 32.06% [6][9] - The book value per share is estimated to be 4.74 yuan in 2024 [9]

[Table_Page] 公告点评|非白酒 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 燕京啤酒(000729.SZ) 改革加速兑现,业绩超预期 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 事件:公司发布 2024 年半年度业绩预告。24H1 公司预计实现归母净 利润 7.2-8.0 亿元,同比+40%-55%,实现扣非归母净利润 7.0-7.8 亿 685627 元,同比+60%-77%,业绩超预期。 ⚫ 24Q2 表现亮眼,扣非归母净利润大幅增长。24Q2 单季度公司归母/扣 非归母净利润预告中值为 6.6/6.3 亿元,分别同比+45.9%/66.4%,其 中以预告中值计算 24Q2 非经常损益为 2055 万元、同比-69.7%,主要 系 23Q2 公司土地收储获得政府补助 6091 万元,24Q2 扣非归母净利 润同比+56.6%-76.2%更能反映实际经营过程中的业绩弹性。 ⚫ 持续高增,改革兑现。24Q2 延续了 24Q1 公司归母/扣非归母净利润 同比+58.9%/81.7%的高增态势,24Q2 是公司上市以来最高归母净利 润的单二季度,我们认为主要系公司近年持续深化改革,收入端燕京 U8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer (000729) with a target price of 18 CNY, compared to the current price of 8.92 CNY [1][2]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth, with a forecasted net profit of 7.19-7.97 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 40%-55%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be 7.00-7.75 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 60%-77% [1]. - In Q2 2024, the net profit is anticipated to be between 6.17-6.94 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 37%-54%, and the non-recurring net profit is expected to be 5.97-6.72 billion CNY, showing a growth of 57%-76% [1][2]. - The U8 brand is performing strongly, with sales expected to show resilience despite a generally weak recovery in consumption and high base effects [2]. - Cost advantages are being realized through raw material cost reductions and internal reforms, leading to a significant increase in gross margins [2]. - The company is expected to maintain strong sales momentum in the second half of the year, supported by ongoing reforms and cost reductions [2]. Financial Summary - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 14.213 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.7%. By 2024, revenue is expected to reach 15.081 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 6.1% [3]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 645 million CNY, with a remarkable year-on-year growth of 83%. For 2024, the net profit is forecasted to be 980 million CNY, indicating a growth of 52.1% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.23 CNY in 2023 to 0.35 CNY in 2024, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 39 and 26, respectively [3].

证券研究报告 燕京啤酒 (000729 CH) Q2 业绩超预期,改革成效持续凸显 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(人民币): 11.52 华泰研究 公告点评 2024 年 7 月 11 日│中国内地 饮料 Q2 业绩超预期,改革成效释放 24H1 公司预计归母净利 7.2-8.0 亿元,同比+40%-55%,实现扣非归母净 利润 7.0-7.8 亿元,同比+60%-77%;24Q2 公司预计实现归母净利润 6.2-6.9 亿元,同比+37%-54%,实现扣非归母净利润 6.0-6.7 亿元,同比+57%-76%, 公司业绩超预期(前次前瞻我们预计公司 Q2 归母净利同比+25%)。公司改 革成效持续释放,Q2 在结构升级、成本改善、内部提效三因子的共振下实 现业绩高增,U8 引领下高端化持续向前,内部供应链改革、体制机制改革 全面推进,红利持续释放。预计 24-26 年 EPS 0.36/0.48/0.61 元,参考可 比 24 年平均 PE 20x(Wind 一致预期),23-25 年净利 CAGR(56%)高于 可比均值(9%),给予 24 年 32x PE,目标价 11.52 元,"买入"。 U8 ...

2024 年 07 月 11 日 究 结构升级叠加提效降费,利润弹性释放 —燕京啤酒(000729.SZ)公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 | | | |--------------------|----------------| | 分析师:孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师:廖望州 | S1050523100001 | | liaowz@cfsc.com.cn | | 基本数据 2024-07-11 当前股价(元) 8.92 总市值(亿元) 251 总股本(百万股) 2819 流通股本(百万股) 2510 52 周价格范围(元) 7.78-11.95 日均成交额(百万元) 176.14 市场表现 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 (%) 燕京啤酒 沪深300 资料来源:Wind,华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《燕京啤酒(000729):提效控 费,释放利润弹性》2024-04-25 2、《燕京啤酒(000729):结构升 级趋势显著,业绩落于预告区间上 沿》2024-04-16 3、《燕京啤酒(000729):改革如 期推进, ...

2024 年 07 月 11 日 究 结构升级叠加提效降费,利润弹性释放 —燕京啤酒(000729.SZ)公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 | | | |--------------------|----------------| | 分析师:孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师:廖望州 | S1050523100001 | | liaowz@cfsc.com.cn | | 基本数据 2024-07-11 当前股价(元) 8.92 总市值(亿元) 251 总股本(百万股) 2819 流通股本(百万股) 2510 52 周价格范围(元) 7.78-11.95 日均成交额(百万元) 176.14 市场表现 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 (%) 燕京啤酒 沪深300 资料来源:Wind,华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《燕京啤酒(000729):提效控 费,释放利润弹性》2024-04-25 2、《燕京啤酒(000729):结构升 级趋势显著,业绩落于预告区间上 沿》2024-04-16 3、《燕京啤酒(000729):改革如 期推进, ...

2024 年 7 月 11 日 公司研究 利润再创新高,改革红利快速释放 ——燕京啤酒(000729.SZ)2024 年半年报预告点评 要点 事件: 24H1 公司预计实现归母净利润约 7.19~7.97 亿元,同比+40%~55%;扣 除非经常性损益后的净利润预计 7.0~7.75 亿元,同比+60%~77%。其中 24Q2 预计实现归母净利润 6.17~6.94 亿元,同比+37%~54%;预计实现扣非归母净 利润 5.97~6.72 亿元,同比+57%~76%。 利润再创新高,改革成效显著。24H1 公司预计实现归母净利润约 7.19~7.97 亿 元,超过 23 年全年归母净利润,利润再创新高。公司"十四五"规划以来,公 司收入利润屡创新高,完成了公司每年实现一定提升的目标。为实现目标,公司 积极完成三项重要任务:1)生产端实施多元管理系统,并落实到全国所有工厂, 助力科学排产、控制成本、提高效率;2)市场端建立基地市场,并做大做强, 以支撑公司持续增长;3)供应链端加强数字化建设,提升生产和市场的协同效 应,提高运营效率、降低成本。公司通过一系列改革措施,充分激发了员工的积 极性和创造性,这种改革不 ...

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