Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their profitability and stock performance [3][4]. Core Insights - Supply control expectations are rising, which may lead to a recovery in steel mill profits. Despite high production levels, demand is slowly recovering, and inventory continues to accumulate, resulting in a slight decline in steel mill profits [3][4]. - The report highlights that the current steel prices are at a low point for the year, and with inventory levels low and demand stabilizing, the potential for further profit declines is limited [3][4]. - The report suggests that the recent supply-side adjustments may be more precise, promoting a competitive environment that could enhance the profitability of steel companies [3][4]. Price Trends - As of August 29, 2025, steel prices have decreased, with 20mm HRB400 rebar priced at 3,250 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other steel products also saw slight price declines [1][11]. - The report notes that the average price changes for various steel products over the past month show a decrease of 5.8% for rebar and 4.2% for hot-rolled sheets [12]. Production and Inventory - As of August 29, 2025, the total production of the five major steel products reached 8.85 million tons, an increase of 6.55 million tons week-on-week. Rebar production increased by 5.91 million tons to 2.2056 million tons [2][3]. - Total social inventory of the five major steel products rose by 291,000 tons to 10.4532 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 23,300 tons [2][3]. Profitability - The report indicates a decline in steel mill profits, with estimated gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel decreasing by 48 CNY/ton, 75 CNY/ton, and 61 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. - The profitability of electric arc furnace steel also saw a decrease of 28 CNY/ton week-on-week [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel in the flat steel sector, and Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., Ltd. in the special steel sector [3][4].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3857.93 points, above the annual line, with a change of 0.37% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 28,301.97 billion yuan [1] Stocks Breaking Annual Line - A total of 22 A-shares have surpassed the annual line today, with notable stocks including Guoan Co., Transsion Holdings, and ST Huawen, showing divergence rates of 6.70%, 5.14%, and 4.43% respectively [1] - Stocks with smaller divergence rates that just crossed the annual line include Changjiang Electric, ST Zhongzhuang, and Laobaigan Liquor [1] Top Divergence Rates - The top three stocks with the highest divergence rates are: - Guoan Co. (10.07% increase, 6.70% divergence) - Transsion Holdings (7.17% increase, 5.14% divergence) - ST Huawen (4.86% increase, 4.43% divergence) [1] Additional Stock Performance - Other notable stocks include: - Shenyang Machine Tool (4.49% increase, 3.75% divergence) - Shangong Shenbei (4.20% increase, 3.64% divergence) - ST Boda (4.10% increase, 3.48% divergence) [1]

Market Performance - The special steel sector increased by 0.22% on August 29, with Fangda Special Steel leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3857.93, up 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12696.15, up 0.99% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Fangda Special Steel (600507) closed at 5.58, up 1.64%, with a trading volume of 401,600 shares and a turnover of 225 million yuan [1] - Jiuli Special Materials (002318) closed at 22.52, up 1.40%, with a trading volume of 148,000 shares and a turnover of 333 million yuan [1] - Other notable performances include: - Jinzou Pipeline (002443) at 7.16, up 0.99% [1] - Taigang Stainless Steel (000825) at 4.14, up 0.98% [1] - Changbao Co. (002478) at 5.52, up 0.55% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The special steel sector experienced a net outflow of 59.85 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 33.37 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors increased their positions [2] Detailed Capital Flow by Stock - Jiuli Special Materials (002318) had a net inflow of 27.39 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 27.69 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Fushun Special Steel (600399) saw a net inflow of 4.64 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 5.99 million yuan [3] - Fangda Special Steel (600507) experienced a significant net outflow of 20.95 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Company Overview - Jiu Li Special Materials Co., Ltd. is located in Huzhou, Zhejiang Province, established on January 8, 2004, and listed on December 11, 2009. The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of industrial stainless steel pipes and special alloy materials, including pipes, fittings, flanges, bars, and prefabricated components [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Jiu Li Special Materials achieved operating revenue of 6.105 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.39%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 828 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 28.48% [2]. - As of June 30, 2025, the company had a total of 20,600 shareholders, an increase of 16.03% compared to the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per person was 46,427, which decreased by 13.80% [2]. Stock Performance - On August 29, Jiu Li Special Materials' stock price increased by 2.07%, reaching 22.67 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 167 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.78%. The total market capitalization stood at 22.152 billion yuan [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has risen by 0.90%, with a slight increase of 0.22% over the last five trading days, a 0.93% increase over the last 20 days, but a decline of 5.50% over the last 60 days [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders included Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited as the second-largest shareholder, holding 44.6371 million shares, an increase of 1.8334 million shares from the previous period. The eighth-largest shareholder, Fu Guo Xing Yuan Preferred 12-Month Holding Period Mixed A, maintained its holding of 15.2453 million shares, while the ninth-largest shareholder, Guangfa Steady Growth Mixed A, reduced its holdings by 800,000 shares to 12.5 million shares [3]. Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Jiu Li Special Materials has distributed a total of 3.468 billion yuan in dividends, with 1.802 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Industry Classification - Jiu Li Special Materials is classified under the steel industry, specifically in the special steel sector, and is involved in various concept sectors including special steel, oil and gas pipelines, ultra-supercritical power generation, natural gas, and nuclear power [1].

Core Insights - The report highlights the updated monthly interest rate timing model, which shows improved predictive accuracy with a success rate of 74% for the recent two years [12][14] - The company Atour (ATAT.O) has raised its full-year retail revenue guidance, with Q2 revenue growing by 37.4% year-on-year to 2.47 billion yuan, exceeding expectations [15][17] - Shenzhen International (00152.HK) reported a revenue of 6.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, with a focus on logistics park transformation projects [18][16] Group 1: Interest Rate Timing Strategy - The updated model incorporates richer factor indicators and adjusts weightings for different types of indicators, enhancing predictive capabilities [14] - Three strategy applications have been designed: basic timing strategy, timing & treasury futures strategy, and timing & leverage strategy, all outperforming longer-duration benchmarks [14] - The timing & leverage strategy achieved a maximum annualized excess return of 128 basis points [14] Group 2: Atour (ATAT.O) Performance - Atour's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with a net profit increase of 39.8% year-on-year to 425 million yuan [15][17] - The company opened 118 new hotels in Q2, maintaining its target of 500 new openings for the year [15][17] - Retail business GMV reached 1.144 billion yuan in Q2, a year-on-year growth of 84.6%, with online sales accounting for over 90% [15][17] Group 3: Shenzhen International (00152.HK) Insights - The company’s logistics park transformation and asset securitization strategies are expected to enhance earnings resilience [18][16] - For 2025-2027, net profit forecasts are 3.081 billion, 3.430 billion, and 3.925 billion HKD, with a dividend yield projected at 8.3%, 9.3%, and 10.6% respectively [18][16] - The logistics park business reported a revenue of 785 million HKD in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [18][16] Group 4: Steel Industry Performance - Baosteel (600019) reported steady growth with high dividend maintenance, while Hualing Steel (000932) saw a significant increase in high-end product sales [20][24] - The steel industry is experiencing a shift towards high-end products, with companies like Zhongxin Special Steel (000708) maintaining stable performance [26] - The overall steel market is expected to benefit from reduced raw material costs and improved product structures, leading to enhanced profitability [24][26]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3812.43 points, above the annual line, with a change of 0.32% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares is 1,230.98 billion yuan [1] Stocks Breaking Annual Line - 23 A-shares have broken above the annual line today, with notable stocks including Chuangyi Information, Zhongfu Information, and Qifeng New Materials, showing divergence rates of 11.29%, 5.02%, and 3.05% respectively [1] - Stocks with smaller divergence rates that have just crossed the annual line include Guizhou Tire, Andisoo, and Haier Smart Home [1] Top Stocks by Divergence Rate - Chuangyi Information (300366) has a daily increase of 13.27% and a divergence rate of 11.29% [1] - Zhongfu Information (300659) has a daily increase of 6.91% and a divergence rate of 5.02% [1] - Qifeng New Materials (002521) has a daily increase of 3.24% and a divergence rate of 3.05% [1] Additional Stocks with Minor Divergence - Anuoqi (300067) shows a daily increase of 2.60% with a divergence rate of 1.87% [1] - Henglin Shares (603661) has a daily increase of 2.56% and a divergence rate of 1.35% [1] - Other stocks with minor divergence rates include Rabbit Baby (002043), Landun Optoelectronics (300862), and Transsion Holdings (688036) [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue of 6.105 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 828 million yuan, up 28.48% year-on-year [6] - The company continues to optimize its product structure, with seamless pipe revenue showing steady growth and composite pipe revenue experiencing significant increases due to overseas orders [6] - The company is expanding its presence in high-end sectors, with high-value products contributing to 20% of total revenue, reflecting a 15.42% year-on-year growth [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 11.618 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.4% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.682 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 12.9% increase year-on-year [2] - Earnings per share are expected to be 1.72 yuan in 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 13 [2] Market Data - As of August 27, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 22.37 yuan, with a market capitalization of 21.362 billion yuan [3] - The stock has a dividend yield of 4.34% based on the most recent dividend announcement [3] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 2.8 [3]

Key Insights - The report highlights the updated monthly interest rate timing strategy, which includes enriched factor indicators and differentiated weight settings, leading to improved predictive accuracy [12][10][5] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of Atour (ATAT.O) with a 37.4% year-on-year revenue increase in Q2 2025, reaching 2.47 billion yuan, and a net profit growth of 39.8% to 425 million yuan, exceeding expectations [13][11] - Shenzhen International (00152.HK) reported a revenue of 6.67 billion yuan in H1 2025, a slight increase of 0.9%, but a net profit decline of 24.9% due to the absence of prior REIT gains [16][14] Group 1: Atour (ATAT.O) - The company achieved a RevPAR of 343 yuan, recovering to 95.7% of the same period last year, with an occupancy rate (OCC) of 97.4% and an average daily rate (ADR) of 98.2% [13] - Atour's retail business saw a GMV of 1.144 billion yuan in Q2, a significant year-on-year increase of 84.6%, with online sales maintaining a 90% share [15] - The company has adjusted its full-year retail revenue guidance to a 60% year-on-year increase based on current growth trends [15] Group 2: Shenzhen International (00152.HK) - The company confirmed a profit increase of approximately 290 million yuan from the sale of residential projects, contributing to overall performance despite a net profit decline [16] - The logistics park transformation project is expected to provide significant profit elasticity, with estimated tax-adjusted returns exceeding 156.58 billion yuan [16] - The company maintains a stable dividend policy, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 3.081 billion, 3.430 billion, and 3.925 billion Hong Kong dollars, respectively [16] Group 3: Steel Industry Insights - Baosteel (600019) reported a revenue of 151.372 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit of 4.879 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.28% decline in revenue but a 7.36% increase in net profit [20] - The company achieved a steel production volume of 25.46 million tons, with a gross profit per ton increasing by 56.53% year-on-year [20] - The report indicates that the high-end product segment continues to grow, contributing to overall revenue stability in the steel sector [23]

Core Viewpoint - Jiu Li Special Materials' stock price closed at 22.37 yuan on August 27, 2025, reflecting a decline of 3.49% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 540 million yuan and a turnover rate of 2.48% [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Jiu Li Special Materials operates in the steel industry, focusing on the research, production, and sales of stainless steel pipes and special alloy materials [1] - The company's products are widely used in sectors such as oil, chemical, and power [1] Group 2: Shareholder Information - As of the end of the second quarter, pension accounts held 36.037 million shares of Jiu Li Special Materials, accounting for 3.77% of the circulating shares, with the market value of holdings ranking among the top in pension heavyweights [1] Group 3: Market Activity - On August 27, 2025, the net outflow of main funds from Jiu Li Special Materials was 16.0524 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 137 million yuan over the past five days [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index within the next 12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 6.105 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.39%, and net profit of 828 million yuan, up 28.48% [1]. - The composite pipe business experienced rapid growth, with revenue from composite pipes increasing by 219.26% year-on-year, primarily driven by large orders from EBK composite pipes [2]. - The company's gross margin remained high at 27.20% for the first half of 2025, an increase of 2.29 percentage points year-on-year, with seamless pipes and composite pipes showing significant margin growth [2]. - The company is focusing on high-end capacity release and international business collaboration, with a production capacity of 200,000 tons of industrial pipes and ongoing projects expected to enhance production capabilities [3]. - Future profit forecasts for the company indicate a net profit of 1.722 billion yuan in 2025, with expected growth rates of 15.5% and a PE ratio of 13x [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.105 billion yuan, a 26.39% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 828 million yuan, up 28.48% [1]. - Q2 2025 saw revenue of 3.223 billion yuan, a 31.97% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 438 million yuan, reflecting a 38.74% year-on-year growth [1][2]. Business Segments - Revenue from seamless pipes, welded pipes, and composite pipes in H1 2025 was 2.318 billion yuan, 821 million yuan, and 2.050 billion yuan, respectively, with composite pipes showing the highest growth [2]. - The international revenue increased significantly, with overseas sales rising from 1.669 billion yuan to 3.219 billion yuan, contributing to 52.73% of total revenue [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue enhancing its profitability with the gradual release of high-end production capacity, projecting net profits of 1.722 billion yuan in 2025, 1.893 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.176 billion yuan in 2027 [4][5]. - The completion of various projects, including the EBK company upgrade, is anticipated to further support capacity expansion and performance improvement [3].