Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5][8]. Core Insights - The black industrial chain has experienced significant price fluctuations, with the CITIC Steel Index rising by 7.55% during the week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 5.86 percentage points [1][85]. - The report highlights a rebound in steel prices due to a reversal in inventory cycles, driven by strong domestic and external demand in the first half of the year, although uncertainties remain due to tariff frictions [2][6]. - The report anticipates that the implementation of "anti-involution" policies will accelerate the recovery of industry profitability, with a focus on reducing production capacity [2][6]. Supply Analysis - Daily molten iron production has decreased slightly to 242.2 thousand tons, with a marginal decline in long-process production [11][14]. - The capacity utilization rate for domestic blast furnaces is reported at 90.8%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points week-on-week [14][20]. Inventory Analysis - Total steel inventory has slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points, with social inventory increasing while steel mill inventory has significantly declined [20][22]. - The social inventory of five major steel products stands at 9.271 million tons, up 0.5% week-on-week but down 27.4% year-on-year [22][27]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has shown a slight decline of 0.2% week-on-week, indicating resilient demand despite the overall weakness [36][46]. - Weekly average transaction volume for construction steel has increased by 22.4% compared to the previous week, reaching 115 thousand tons [36][37]. Raw Material Analysis - Iron ore prices have strengthened, with the Platts 62% Fe iron ore price index rising to $102.6 per ton, a week-on-week increase of 2.4% [45][54]. - The report notes a decrease in Australian iron ore shipments by 10.5% week-on-week, while Brazilian shipments increased by 17.4% [54][68]. Price and Profit Analysis - The report indicates a significant improvement in immediate gross margins for steel products, with the Myspic comprehensive steel price index rising by 4.2% week-on-week [66][67]. - Current prices for rebar in Beijing and Shanghai have increased by 7.7% and 5.5% respectively, reflecting a positive trend in the market [67][70]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including: - Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes (Buy) - Nanjing Steel (Buy) - Hualing Steel (Buy) - Baosteel (Buy) - Jiuli Special Materials (Buy) - New Steel (Increase Holding) [8][89].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [3]. Core Insights - The demand for special steel is expected to rise due to the commencement of the Yajiang Hydropower Station project, with an estimated special steel demand of approximately 4-6 million tons, significantly exceeding similar hydropower projects [3][7]. - Steel prices have increased, with notable weekly price rises across various steel products, indicating a strengthening market [1][10]. - The profitability of steel manufacturers is recovering, with significant increases in gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel [1][2]. Price Trends - As of July 25, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3,450 CNY/ton, up 180 CNY/ton from the previous week, while hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel prices also saw increases of 170 CNY/ton [1][10]. - The report highlights a 5.5% weekly increase in rebar prices and a 4.6% increase in cold-rolled prices, reflecting a positive price trend in the steel market [11]. Production and Inventory - The total production of the five major steel products decreased to 8.67 million tons, with a slight weekly decline of 1.22 million tons, while total inventory also saw a decrease [2]. - Rebar production increased by 2.9 million tons to 2.1196 million tons, indicating a positive trend in production for this specific category [2]. Profitability Analysis - The report indicates that the gross profit margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel have increased by 46 CNY/ton, 45 CNY/ton, and 79 CNY/ton respectively, showcasing a recovery in profitability for steel manufacturers [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel in the general steel sector, and Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel in the special steel sector, among others [3].

Supply Side - As of July 18, 2025, the total output of five major steel products reached 8.6819 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.52% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.79% [2] - The average daily pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4244 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.10% and a year-on-year increase of 1.16% [2] - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel enterprises was 90.89%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.99 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 1.27 percentage points [2] - The capacity utilization rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 51.79%, with a week-on-week increase of 1.43 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 6.81 percentage points [2] - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills rose to 60.2%, stimulating some steel mills to resume production [2] Demand Side - As of July 18, 2025, the total consumption of five major steel products was 8.7011 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.34% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.28% [2] - The daily transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 94,200 tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 6.49% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.45% [2] - In June, the total export volume of steel reached 9.678 million tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 8.51% and a year-on-year increase of 10.89% [2] - The cumulative export volume in June was 58.1466 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 19.97% and a year-on-year increase of 9.22% [2] - Except for rebar, the consumption of other varieties showed a slight increase, driven by improved macro expectations and increased demand in the terminal manufacturing sector [2] Inventory Side - As of July 18, 2025, the total social inventory of five major steel products was 9.2211 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.89% and a year-on-year decrease of 27.80% [3] - The total factory inventory of five major steel products was 4.1555 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 2.35% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.43% [3] - The inventory pressure decreased as inventory shifted from steel mills to downstream [3] Cost Side - As of July 18, 2025, the price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) at Rizhao Port was 759.4 RMB/wet ton, with a week-on-week increase of 3.29% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.66% [4] - The price for Indian iron ore (61% Fe) at Qingdao Port was 715.4 RMB/wet ton, with a week-on-week increase of 5.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.46% [4] - The comprehensive absolute price index for scrap steel was 2,372.81 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.93% [5] - The comprehensive absolute price index for foundry pig iron was 2,788.8 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.13% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.08% [5] - The price index for low-sulfur coking coal was 1,239.54 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 6.22% and a year-on-year decrease of 35.22% [5] Price Side - As of July 18, 2025, the Mysteel absolute price index for ordinary steel was 3,462.31 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.99%, a month-on-month increase of 2.91%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.43% [5] - The Mysteel absolute price index for special steel was 9,317.6 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.05%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.35%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.73% [5] - The global steel price index was 205.6 points as of July 11, 2025, with a week-on-week increase of 0.59%, a month-on-month increase of 0.54%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.68% [5] - Steel prices are expected to rise in the off-season due to the anticipated "anti-involution" policy and the rebound in raw material prices [5] Industry News - On July 18, 2025, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the development of industry and information technology in the first half of 2025, revealing that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of growth stabilization plans for ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials [6] - The specific work plans will be released in the near future, focusing on structural adjustments, supply optimization, and the elimination of backward production capacity [6] Investment Suggestions - The anticipated "anti-involution" policy is expected to boost the valuation of the sector [6] - The industry is expected to remain stable supported by the stabilization of real estate and construction, as well as a positive outlook for manufacturing [6] - The industry is likely to see increased concentration, structural adjustments in output, and high-quality product development as part of its transformation [6] - Recommended companies include industry leaders with product structure advantages and scale effects, such as Nanjing Steel (600282.SH), Hualing Steel (000932.SZ), and Baosteel (600019.SH) [6] - Special steel companies with high barriers and high value-added products, such as Jiuli Special Materials (002318.SZ), are also recommended [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, among others [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The upcoming "stability growth plan" from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to optimize steel production capacity, focusing on structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated capacity [3][7]. - Steel prices have shown an upward trend, with specific prices for various steel products increasing as of July 18, 2025 [1][10]. - The report indicates a decrease in steel production and inventory levels, with a total production of 8.68 million tons for the five major steel products, reflecting a week-on-week decrease [2][8]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of July 18, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3,270 CNY/ton, up 30 CNY/ton from the previous week [1][10]. - Other steel products also saw price increases, including hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel [1][11]. Production and Inventory - The total production of the five major steel products is 8.68 million tons, down 45,300 tons week-on-week [2][8]. - Social inventory of the five major steel products increased by 81,500 tons to 9.21 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 100,200 tons [2][8]. Profitability - The report notes fluctuations in steel profitability, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel margins changing by -19 CNY/ton, -7 CNY/ton, and +7 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel in the flat steel sector, and Xianglou New Materials and CITIC Special Steel in the special steel sector [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The profitability of Chinese steel companies is significantly lower than that of Japanese steel companies, with the CEO of Nippon Steel highlighting the challenges faced by Chinese manufacturers due to low pricing strategies [1][2]. Financial Performance Comparison - In 2024, Nippon Steel's net profit was 350.2 billion yen (approximately 16.9 billion RMB), while the top five Chinese steel companies had net profits of 7.362 billion RMB (Baowu Steel), 5.126 billion RMB (CITIC Special Steel), 2.261 billion RMB (Nanjing Steel), 2.032 billion RMB (Hualing Steel), and 1.49 billion RMB (Jiuli Special Materials) [1][2]. - The combined net profit of the top four Chinese steel companies in 2024 was less than that of Nippon Steel alone [2]. Industry Challenges - The Chinese steel industry is facing overcapacity, price competition, and increasing technical standards, leading to a decline in profitability [2][6]. - In 2024, the total profit of key Chinese steel companies was 42.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 50.3% [6][7]. - The apparent consumption of crude steel in China has decreased from 1.048 billion tons in 2020 to 892 million tons in 2024, indicating a significant drop in demand [8]. Export Dynamics - Despite increasing steel exports, the average export price has declined, with the volume of steel exports doubling from 53.67 million tons in 2020 to 111 million tons in 2024, while the average price fell from 847.2 USD/ton to 755 USD/ton [9][10]. - Trade protectionism against Chinese steel products is rising, with multiple anti-dumping investigations initiated by countries like Vietnam and South Korea [9][10]. Strategic Adjustments - Chinese steel companies are attempting to improve their competitiveness by focusing on high-end steel production and reducing costs through better management practices [13][14]. - The industry is urged to adopt a more flexible production mechanism to balance supply and demand, especially in light of declining domestic demand and increasing export challenges [15].

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Zhongtai Dividend Quantitative Stock Selection A (021167) reported a profit of 69,300 yuan in Q2 2025, with a net value growth rate of 0.58% for the period, and a total fund size of 12.2475 million yuan as of the end of Q2 2025 [3][16]. Fund Performance - As of July 17, the fund's unit net value was 1.066 yuan [3]. - The fund's performance over different periods includes a 4.66% growth rate over the last three months, 3.23% over the last six months, and 8.37% over the last year, ranking 93rd, 97th, and 92nd respectively among comparable funds [4]. Investment Strategy - The fund employs a quantitative investment strategy based on objective indicators, focusing on dividend yield, historical volatility, and stability of historical dividend yields when selecting stocks [3]. - The investment portfolio is constructed to minimize exposure to non-dividend-related factors such as scale and industry [3]. Portfolio Composition - As of Q2 2025, the fund's investment portfolio is heavily weighted in the industrial, financial, and consumer discretionary sectors [3]. - The top ten holdings include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Agricultural Bank of China, China State Construction Engineering, Kweichow Moutai, China Merchants Bank, Anhui Conch Cement, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Gree Electric Appliances, Jiuli Special Materials, and Meihua Holdings [19]. Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio since inception is 0.616 [9]. - The maximum drawdown since inception is 12.37%, with the largest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q2 2025 at 6.3% [11]. Fund Positioning - The average stock position since inception is 90.04%, compared to the industry average of 88.05%. The fund reached a peak stock position of 92.43% at the end of H1 2025 and a low of 85.08% at the end of Q3 2024 [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metal industries [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-side reform in China is expected to break the deflationary cycle and create investment opportunities in the steel and non-ferrous metal sectors [1][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of "supply constraints" to manage the supply-demand balance and mitigate economic downturn risks [6][12] - The steel industry is facing severe overcapacity, with state-owned enterprises holding a significant market share, which facilitates the implementation of administrative measures to control production [6][28] Summary by Sections 1. Supply-Side Reform and Economic Management - The socialist market economy in China allows for effective macroeconomic control, contrasting with the cyclical issues faced in capitalist economies [12][13] - Historical experiences show that demand stimulus alone is insufficient to resolve deep-seated deflationary pressures [14][15] - The supply-side reform initiated in 2016 has proven successful in stabilizing prices and improving corporate profitability [21][22] 2. Steel Industry Analysis - The steel industry has been in a state of oversupply from 2007 to 2024, with crude steel production increasing from 490 million tons to 1.01 billion tons, while apparent consumption has not kept pace [28][29] - The production capacity utilization rates for rebar and wire rod are expected to decline from around 70% to 50% due to weak real estate demand [33][34] - The concentration of production among state-owned enterprises is high, with central state-owned enterprises accounting for approximately 63% of total production in 2024 [38][39] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of investment targets: profit recovery, stable profit with valuation repair, and stable high-dividend stocks [51] - Specific companies recommended for profit recovery include Liugang Co., Taigang Stainless Steel, and Shandong Iron and Steel, with projected annualized PE ratios improving significantly under favorable conditions [51]

巴西对华奥氏体不锈钢管作出反倾销日落复审终裁 智通财经7月15日电，据商务部官网，2025年7月4日，巴西外贸委员会管理执行委员会（GECEX）在官 方日报发布2025年第755号决议，对自中国进口的奥氏体不锈钢管（葡萄牙语名称：tubo de aço inoxidável austenítico，南共市税号为73064000和73069020）作出反倾销日落复审终裁，裁定继续对中国 的涉案产品征收1340.52美元/吨的反倾销税，有效期为5年（浙江久立特材科技股份有限公司Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co., Ltd.除外）。决议自发布之日起生效。 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3519.65, up 0.27% [2][4] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.11%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.45% [2][4] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious with a focus on the electric power sector, which has shown strength recently [4][11] Economic Indicators - In the first half of 2025, China's total goods trade reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [18][19] - The total value of exports was 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports decreased by 2.7% to 8.79 trillion yuan [19][20] - The People's Bank of China reported an increase of 12.92 trillion yuan in RMB loans during the same period [20][21] Industry Dynamics - The EVTank report indicates that in 2024, Chinese companies dominated the global high-rate battery market, occupying eight out of the top ten positions [30] - The construction of the largest 750 kV ring network project in China has been completed, enhancing power supply capabilities in the Xinjiang region [34] - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a transformation with efforts to reduce "involution" and improve overall market conditions [62] Company Performance - KingMed Diagnostics (603882.SH) is expected to report a net loss of 0.65 billion to 0.95 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 0.90 billion yuan in the previous year [36] - Zhongji United (605305.SH) anticipates a net profit of 0.25 billion to 0.30 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 78.02% to 113.63% year-on-year [37] - JiuLi Special Materials (002318.SZ) is set to enhance its production capabilities with a new high-tech seamless steel pipe production line [40] Financial Performance - Youfu Co., Ltd. (002427.SZ) expects to turn a profit in the first half of 2025, with a net profit forecast of 10 million to 15 million yuan [44] - MiaoKe LanDuo (60882.SH) projects a net profit increase of 56% to 89% for the first half of 2025, driven by rising cheese product sales [46] - Shengyi Technology (688183.SH) anticipates a staggering net profit growth of 432% to 471% for the same period, attributed to strategic product optimization [55]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the steel sector, highlighting strong price performance and potential recovery in profitability for steel companies [5][6]. Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy continues to influence the market, leading to stronger expectations for supply-side constraints and supporting higher steel prices [5]. - As of July 11, 2025, steel prices have increased, with notable rises in various categories such as rebar and hot-rolled steel [3][11]. - The report indicates a decrease in steel production and inventory levels, suggesting a tightening supply situation [4][5]. Price Summary - As of July 11, 2025, the prices for key steel products are as follows: - Rebar (20mm HRB400): 3,240 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton from last week - High-line (8.0mm): 3,410 CNY/ton, up 50 CNY/ton - Hot-rolled (3.0mm): 3,350 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton - Cold-rolled (1.0mm): 3,680 CNY/ton, up 70 CNY/ton - Common medium plate (20mm): 3,330 CNY/ton, up 10 CNY/ton [3][11][12]. Production and Inventory - As of July 11, 2025, total steel production for the five major categories was 8.73 million tons, a decrease of 124,400 tons week-on-week [4]. - Total social inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 20,200 tons to 9.1278 million tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 17,700 tons to 4.2557 million tons [4]. Profitability Analysis - The report notes fluctuations in steel profitability, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel margins changing by -14 CNY/ton, -13 CNY/ton, and +33 CNY/ton respectively week-on-week [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market position: - For flat steel: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel - For special steel: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. - For pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel - Additionally, it suggests paying attention to high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel [5].