Workflow
TLC(002466)
icon
Search documents
【有色】从重置成本角度再看锂矿板块投资价值——碳酸锂产业链研究报告之八(王招华/马俊)
光大证券研究· 2025-03-13 09:05
Core Viewpoint - The lithium industry is entering a clearing phase, with potential for price increases due to production cuts and supply-demand improvements [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Historical data shows that during the last lithium cycle, stock prices generally trended upward despite fluctuations, with Ganfeng Lithium's stock rising by 162.3% over a 15-month clearing period [2]. - As of January 2024, six Australian mines have announced production cuts or delays, indicating a potential for further reductions in 2025, which could enhance the supply-demand balance [2]. Group 2: Valuation Methods - The lithium sector lacks a clear valuation anchor, with companies experiencing extreme fluctuations in price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, sometimes exceeding hundreds of times during upswings and dropping below 10 times after peaks [3]. - Alternative valuation methods, such as the replacement cost method, may provide a more accurate reflection of asset values, especially given the volatility of lithium prices [3]. Group 3: Replacement Cost Calculation - The replacement cost method assesses the total cost required to acquire or construct a new asset under current conditions, including intangible assets like mining rights and fixed assets such as lithium refining and mining facilities [4]. - The calculation of replacement costs involves determining the value of lithium resources per ton and applying it to the resource quantities of various lithium mines, as well as estimating the investment costs for refining and mining operations [4]. Group 4: Current Valuation Status - Based on replacement cost calculations, companies like Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, Shengxin Lithium, and Yahua Group are already trading below their replacement costs, indicating potential undervaluation [5]. - Other companies, while having lower replacement costs than their current market values, may still be undervalued due to uncalculated non-lithium business assets [5].
天齐锂业(002466) - H股公告:证券变动月报表
2025-03-03 10:30
第 1 頁 共 11 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 本月底法定/註冊股本總額: RMB 1,641,221,583 增加備註 備註: 1. 因本公司是於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司,"法定股本"之概念不適用於本公司。在上述第 I 部顯示的資料是指本公司的"註冊股本"。 _ 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2025年2月28日 | | | | 狀態: | 新提交 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 致:香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | | | | | | 公司名稱: | 天齊鋰業股份有限公司 | | | | | | | | 呈交日期: | 2025年3月3日 | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股本變動 I. | 不適用 | | | | | | | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | + | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 09696 | 說明 | | | | | | | 增加多櫃檯 ...
天齐锂业20250226
2025-02-26 16:22
Summary of Tianqi Lithium's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tianqi Lithium - **Date**: February 26, 2025 Key Points Industry Challenges and Financial Performance - Tianqi Lithium faces multiple challenges including pricing mismatches in aluminum products, tax litigation with SQM, suspension of the Kwinana Phase II project, and foreign exchange losses, leading to a decline in investment income [2][3] - The company anticipates a loss of 7.1 to 8.2 billion yuan for the year 2024, primarily due to significant declines in aluminum product prices and increased asset impairment losses [3] Production Capacity and Developments - The Greenbush lithium mine's capacity is steadily increasing, with the CDP3 plant expected to commence production in Q4 2025, raising capacity to 2.14 million tons per year [2][4] - Current lithium hydroxide production capacity stands at 188,600 tons per year, with a new 30,000-ton project in Zhangjiagang expected to be completed within 18 to 24 months, increasing total capacity to 218,600 tons per year [2][6] Kwinana Project Status - The Kwinana Phase II project has been terminated, while Phase I is still ramping up and is projected to produce approximately 5,000 to 6,000 tons in 2024 [2][10] - The total impairment for the Kwinana Phase II project is about 400 million yuan, with an additional inventory impairment of approximately 770 million yuan, impacting net profit by around 770 million yuan [2][14] Cost Structure - The cash mining cost at the Greenbush mine is approximately 300 AUD, with total costs around 500 AUD, translating to about 18,000 to 20,000 USD per ton [4][12] - The average cost of lithium carbonate from the Adaparama salt lake is between 5,000 to 7,000 USD, with costs rising due to electricity and environmental factors [4][13] SQM Resource Allocation Impact - Starting in 2025, SQM will receive 33,500 tons of lithium resource revenue, which will affect Tianqi Lithium's investment income. After 2030, resource allocation will be based on equity ratios [2][11] Future Plans and Innovations - Tianqi Lithium is expanding its metal lithium production capacity in Chongqing, targeting an additional 1,000 tons per year [2][17] - The company is focusing on the development of next-generation battery materials, particularly sulfide solid electrolytes, and has received positive feedback from downstream customers on high-purity lithium sulfide products [2][17] Impairment Provisions - The company plans to recognize an impairment of 2.2 billion yuan, reflecting current market conditions and asset value adjustments [2][14] Market Conditions - The procurement cost for refined materials has decreased from high levels at the end of 2023 to around 1,300 USD, with December prices for lithium around 705 USD [2][7] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from Tianqi Lithium's conference call, highlighting the company's operational challenges, production developments, financial outlook, and strategic initiatives in the lithium industry.
天齐锂业(002466) - 关于2024年度计提资产减值准备的进展公告
2025-02-19 11:45
股票代码:002466 股票简称:天齐锂业 公告编号:2025-006 天齐锂业股份有限公司 关于 2024 年度计提资产减值准备的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、 完整,没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 三、风险提示 为了真实、准确地反映公司截至2024年12月31日的财务状况及2024年度经营成果, 基于谨慎性原则,公司目前仍将根据《企业会计准则》等相关规定对公司相关资产进行 持续的减值测试。截至本公告披露日,预计计提资产减值准备金额数据尚未经审计,最 终的计提减值金额尚待进一步验证和确认,最终结果请以审计后的公司《2024年年度报 告》为准。如确认后的资产减值损失金额对公司2024年度经营业绩造成较大影响,公司 将及时履行信息披露义务。 请投资者理性投资,注意投资风险。 特此公告。 一、背景 天齐锂业股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")分别于2016年和2017年在澳大利亚启 动了"年产2.4万吨电池级单水氢氧化锂项目"(以下简称"一期氢氧化锂项目")和"第 二期年产2.4万吨电池级单水氢氧化锂项目"(以下简称"二期氢氧化锂项目")建设相关 工作。目前,一期氢氧化锂项目处于 ...
天齐锂业(002466) - H股公告:证券变动月报表
2025-02-06 11:17
股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | | 2025年1月31日 | | | | | 狀態: 新提交 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 致:香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | | | | | | | | 公司名稱: | | 天齊鋰業股份有限公司 | | | | | | | | | 呈交日期: | | 2025年2月5日 | | | | | | | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 不適用 | | | | | | | | | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | | 股份類別 H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | + | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 09696 | | 說明 | | | | | | | | 增加多櫃檯證券代號 | | | | | | | | | | | 手動填寫 | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 164,122,200 | R ...
天齐锂业:2024年业绩预告点评:终止投资建设奎纳纳二期,资产减值导致Q4亏损扩大
Soochow Securities· 2025-01-26 06:43
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianqi Lithium Industries is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has terminated the investment in the construction of the Kwinana Phase II project, leading to asset impairment and an expanded loss in Q4 [1] - The company expects a significant decrease in net profit for 2024, with a forecasted loss of 7.65 to 8.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 204.86% [1] - Despite the challenges in 2024, the company anticipates a recovery in 2025 and 2026, with net profits projected to be 2.22 billion yuan and 2.99 billion yuan respectively, indicating a year-on-year increase of 129% and 35% [1] Financial Performance Summary - For 2022, total revenue was 40.449 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 427.82%. In 2023, revenue slightly increased to 40.503 billion yuan, a growth of 0.13%. However, a significant decline is expected in 2024, with revenue projected at 13.674 billion yuan, a decrease of 66.24% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022 was 24.125 billion yuan, which dropped to 7.297 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a decrease of 69.75%. The forecast for 2024 indicates a loss of 7.652 billion yuan [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2022 was 14.70 yuan, which fell to 4.45 yuan in 2023, and is expected to decline further to -4.66 yuan in 2024 [1] Market Data Summary - The closing price of Tianqi Lithium is 30.99 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 50.861 billion yuan [6] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 1.17 and a total circulating A-share market value of 45.750 billion yuan [6] - The company's total assets are valued at 73.228 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 28.43% [7]
天齐锂业(002466) - 关于终止投资建设第二期年产2.4万吨电池级单水氢氧化锂项目的公告
2025-01-23 16:00
股票代码:002466 股票简称:天齐锂业 公告编号:2025-003 天齐锂业股份有限公司 关于终止投资建设"第二期年产 2.4 万吨电池级 单水氢氧化锂项目"的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、 完整,没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 1 合人民币约12.56亿元。具体内容详见公司于2020年4月29日披露于巨潮资讯网 (http://www.cninfo.com.cn)的《2019年年度报告》。 2023年9月,公司控股子公司Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia Pty Ltd(以下简称 "TLEA")董事会审议通过了二期氢氧化锂项目前端工程设计合同。2023年11月,TLEA 之全资子公司Tianqi Lithium Kwinana Pty Ltd正式与承包商签订前端工程设计合同,拟 对项目经济可行性和投建节奏进行综合分析。同时,为适应市场环境等多种因素的影响, 公司管理层结合公司的经营发展规划等情况,重新全面审视该项目进度和资本金投入计 划。具体内容详见公司于2024年8月31日披露于巨潮资讯网(http://www.cninfo.com.cn) ...
天齐锂业(002466) - 关于2024年度计提资产减值准备的公告
2025-01-23 16:00
风险提示: 天齐锂业股份有限公司 关于 2024 年度计提资产减值准备的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、 完整,没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 股票代码:002466 股票简称:天齐锂业 公告编号:2025-005 公司分别于2016年和2017年在澳大利亚启动了"年产2.4万吨电池级单水氢氧化锂 项目"(以下简称"一期氢氧化锂项目")和"第二期年产2.4万吨电池级单水氢氧化锂 项目"(以下简称"二期氢氧化锂项目")建设相关工作。目前,一期氢氧化锂项目处于 产能爬坡阶段,二期氢氧化锂项目处于暂缓建设阶段。 根据《企业会计准则》《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第1号——主板上市 公司规范运作》和公司会计政策等相关制度的规定,公司正在结合最新情况对上述氢氧 化锂项目进行减值测试,并就相关信息与公司控股子公司Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia Pty Ltd(以下简称"TLEA")管理层进行持续沟通确认。经初步测算,公司 预计在2024年计提在建工程及使用权资产减值准备合计约14.12亿元人民币(不包含一 期氢氧化锂项目(如有))。 此外,截至本公告日 ...
天齐锂业(002466) - 第六届董事会第二十次会议决议公告
2025-01-23 16:00
股票代码:002466 股票简称:天齐锂业 公告编号:2025-002 天齐锂业股份有限公司 第六届董事会第二十次会议决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、 完整,没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 天齐锂业股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")第六届董事会第二十次会议(以下简称"会 议")于2025年1月23日在四川省成都市天府新区红梁西一街166号公司八楼会议室以现场结合 通讯的方式召开。召开本次会议的通知已于2025年1月20日通过电子邮件方式送达各位董事, 会议材料于2025年1月21日以电子邮件方式送达各位董事。本次会议应参加表决董事8人(其中 独立董事4人),实际参加表决董事8人。本次会议由董事长蒋安琪女士召集并主持,会议的召 集、召开与表决程序符合《中华人民共和国公司法》和《公司章程》及相关法律、法规的规定, 合法有效。 特此公告。 天齐锂业股份有限公司董事会 二〇二五年一月二十四日 1 本次会议审议通过了以下议案: 一、审议通过《关于终止投资建设"第二期年产2.4万吨电池级单水氢氧化锂项目"的议 案》 表决结果:同意8票、反对0票、弃权0票。 在综合审视公司在澳大利亚的"第 ...
天齐锂业(002466) - 2024 Q4 - 年度业绩预告
2025-01-23 13:45
Financial Performance Expectations - The company expects a net loss of between 8.2 billion yuan and 7.1 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024, compared to a profit of 729.73 million yuan in the same period last year[2]. - The basic earnings per share are projected to be a loss of between 5.00 yuan and 4.33 yuan, down from a profit of 4.45 yuan per share in the previous year[2]. - The decline in performance is primarily attributed to a significant drop in lithium product market prices, despite an increase in production and sales volume of lithium compounds and derivatives[4]. - The company anticipates an increase in asset impairment losses for the year due to evaluations of its lithium hydroxide projects[6]. - The strong US dollar has led to increased foreign exchange losses compared to the previous year, affecting overall financial performance[6]. - The investment income from the company's important associate, SQM, is expected to decline significantly due to SQM's anticipated poor performance in 2024[5]. Operational Challenges - The pricing mechanism mismatch between the company's lithium chemical products and the pricing of lithium concentrate from its subsidiary Talison Lithium has contributed to the current financial challenges[4]. - The company is gradually seeing production costs align with the latest procurement prices of lithium concentrate as lower-priced materials are utilized[5]. Audit and Forecasting - The company has communicated with its auditing firm regarding the performance forecast, and there are no significant discrepancies noted as of the announcement date[3]. - The financial data provided in the performance forecast is preliminary and subject to change pending the completion of the annual audit[7].