[ T able_StockInfo] 2025 年 02 月 28 日 证券研究报告•2024 年业绩快报点评 涪陵榨菜（002507）食品饮料 目标价：——元（6 个月） 买入 （维持） 当前价：13.35 元 Q4 业绩略低于预期，成本红利仍可期 风险提示：新品推广或不及预期；原材料价格大幅波动风险。 | [Table_MainProfit] 指标/年度 | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 2449.85 | 2407.96 | 2545.82 | 2676.03 | | 增长率 | -3.86% | -1.71% | 5.73% | 5.11% | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | 826.58 | 824.06 | 896.06 | 971.25 | | 增长率 | -8.03% | -0.30% | 8.74% | 8.39% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 0.72 | 0.71 | 0.78 | 0.84 | | 净资产收益率 ROE | 10.03% | 9.09 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fuling Pickle has encountered a performance growth bottleneck, with both revenue and net profit declining for the second consecutive year, prompting the company to adapt its product strategy to meet changing consumer preferences [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Fuling Pickle reported revenue of 2.408 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.71% year-on-year, and a net profit of 824 million yuan, down 0.31% year-on-year [3]. - The company's stock price closed at 13.35 yuan per share on February 28, reflecting a decline of over 50% from its historical peak [3]. Market Environment - The overall market consumption environment and consumer willingness to spend have negatively impacted revenue, despite lower raw material costs in 2024 [4]. - The decline in sales during the fourth quarter of 2024 is attributed to the disappearance of stockpiling demand that was prevalent during the COVID-19 pandemic [4]. Product Strategy - Fuling Pickle has introduced a new 60g product priced at 2 yuan to cater to price-sensitive consumers, which has become one of the company's main products, accounting for 25% of sales [9][10]. - The company has not considered lowering prices for its main products but is adapting by offering lower-priced alternatives to attract consumers [6][9]. Competitive Landscape - The industry is facing a slowdown in growth, with limited pricing power due to a focus on cost-effectiveness among consumers [5][7]. - Fuling Pickle's brand image and value remain strong, but the company must carefully evaluate the long-term impact of any pricing strategies on its brand [7][8]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that Fuling Pickle should focus on product innovation, expand sales channels, and enhance brand marketing to overcome its performance challenges [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure, with a projected revenue of 2.408 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 824 million yuan, down 0.3% year-on-year. However, the non-recurring net profit is expected to increase by 0.1% to 757 million yuan [5] - The company has completed organizational restructuring and is focusing on optimizing product and channel collaboration, which is expected to drive growth in the restaurant channel [6] - The company is actively addressing previous marketing and product strategy issues, leading to continuous improvement in performance, with a forecasted EPS of 0.71, 0.79, and 0.85 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.408 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% from 2023, and a net profit of 824 million yuan, a decrease of 0.3% [11] - The company expects a revenue increase of 5.3% in 2025 and 6.1% in 2026, with net profit projections of 907 million yuan and 976 million yuan respectively [11] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin is expected to remain high at 52.6% in 2024, increasing to 54.5% by 2026 [12] - The net profit margin is projected to improve from 33.7% in 2023 to 36.3% in 2026 [12] Organizational Changes - The company has implemented a flat organizational structure and optimized its compensation system, which is expected to enhance collaboration and efficiency [6] - The company is focusing on product optimization and new product launches, with specific support for channel policies [6] Market Outlook - The company anticipates that the restaurant channel will continue to grow significantly, supported by the adaptability of its products [6] - The company has sufficient low-cost raw material inventory to support operations through Q2 2025, with additional storage capacity being developed [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure, with a projected revenue of 2.408 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 824 million yuan, down 0.3% year-on-year. However, the non-recurring net profit is expected to increase by 0.1% to 757 million yuan [5] - The company has completed organizational restructuring and is focusing on optimizing product and channel collaboration, which is expected to drive growth in the restaurant channel [6] - The company is actively addressing previous marketing and product strategy issues, leading to continuous improvement in performance, with a forecasted EPS of 0.71, 0.79, and 0.85 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 446 million yuan, a decrease of 11% year-on-year, and a net profit of 153 million yuan, down 8% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit for the same period was 120 million yuan, a decrease of 22% [5] - The company expects to maintain a high gross margin despite the ongoing digestion of low-cost raw materials [5] Organizational Changes - The company has optimized departmental collaboration and completed a flat organizational structure reform, which is expected to enhance the adaptability of its products in the restaurant channel [6] - The company is increasing the speed of product optimization and new product launches, with specific support for channel policies [6] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been adjusted to 0.71, 0.79, and 0.85 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19, 17, and 16 times [7] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from a sufficient reserve of low-cost raw materials, which will help maintain high gross margins [7]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 02 28 年 月 日 涪陵榨菜（002507.SZ） 淡季表现低于预期，低基数下蓄势增长 事件：公司发布 2024 年度业绩快报，2024 年实现营业收入 24.08 亿，同 比下降 1.71%；实现归母净利润 8.24 亿元，同比下降 0.31%；实现扣非 归母净利润 7.57 亿元，同比增长 0.13%。其中单四季度而言，实现营业 收入 4.46 亿，同比下降 10.58%；实现归母净利润 1.53 亿元，同比下降 8.36%；实现扣非归母净利润 1.20 亿元，同比下降 21.51%。 淡季表现平淡，收入低于预期。公司 2024Q4 实现营业收入 4.46 亿，同 比下降 10.58%，而 2024Q1-Q3 实现营业收入 19.62 亿，同比+0.56%， 2024Q4 同比大幅下滑，究其原因，一方面，我们判断可能与跨期确认收 入相关，部分商品 2024Q4 发货尚未交付至经销商手中，跨期货物预计于 2025 年 Q1 确认收入；另一方面，我们预计可能与消费者淡季囤货意识减 弱相关。 淡季费投减少，利润率环比改善。公司 2024 年实现 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.408 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.71%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 824 million, a decrease of 0.31% [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant revenue drop of 10.58% year-on-year, attributed to delayed shipments and reduced consumer stockpiling awareness during the off-season [1][2] - The company achieved a net profit margin of 34.22% for 2024, an increase of 0.48 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from lower raw material costs and reduced marketing expenses during the off-season [2] - The strategic focus remains on stabilizing the core pickled vegetable business while diversifying product offerings, with successful project management and organizational adjustments [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 2.408 billion, with a growth rate of -1.7% [5] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 824 million, with a growth rate of -0.3% [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.71 yuan, with a slight decrease from the previous year [5] - The company anticipates a recovery in 2025 with projected revenue growth of 6.4% and net profit growth of 9.6% [3][5]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of CNY 2,407,988,879.23, a decrease of 1.71% compared to the previous year[4] - Operating profit for the year was CNY 972,297,240.80, down 0.34% year-on-year, while total profit was CNY 972,793,271.33, a decrease of 0.20%[4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 824,044,193.97, reflecting a decline of 0.31% from the previous year[4] - Basic earnings per share decreased by 1.39% to CNY 0.71[4] - The weighted average return on net assets was 9.71%, down from 10.41% in the previous year[4] - There were no significant changes in major financial indicators during the reporting period[7] Assets and Equity - The company's total assets at the end of the reporting period were CNY 9,416,700,963.06, an increase of 7.38% from the beginning of the period[4] - Shareholders' equity rose to CNY 8,722,275,698.82, marking a growth of 5.80% compared to the start of the year[4] Strategic Focus - The company maintained a strategic focus on optimizing the pickled vegetable category and diversifying its development amidst challenges in traditional consumption models[5] Earnings Forecast - The company did not provide prior earnings forecasts for the 2024 fiscal year[8]

本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、闲置自有资金和募集资金理财的审批情况 证券代码：002507 证券简称：涪陵榨菜 公告编号：2025-002 重庆市涪陵榨菜集团股份有限公司 关于使用闲置自有资金及募集资金理财的进展公告 | 序号 | 受托方 | 产品名称 | 金额 | 产品类型 | 起息日 | 产品期限 | 关联 | 资金 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (万元) | | | | 关系 | 来源 | | 2 | | 协定存款 | 10,000 | 本金保障型 | 2025年1月16日 | 5天 | 无 | 募集 资金 募集 | | 1 | | 协定存款 | 10,000 | 本金保障型 | 2025年1月9日 | 12天 | 无 | 募集 资金 | | 3 | 恒丰银行股份 | 协定存款 | 10,000 | 本金保障型 | 2025年1月17日 | 4天 | 无 | | | | | | | | | | | 资金 | | 4 | 有限公司 | ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 19.9 yuan, corresponding to a reasonable valuation of 23 times earnings [2][4][43]. Core Insights - The company is undergoing significant reforms under new management, which are expected to lead to a turnaround in sales expenses, pricing strategies, and channel structures, helping the company emerge from a period of stagnation [1][2][11]. - The long-term trend of consumption upgrading remains unchanged, and price increases are anticipated to drive future industry growth. The company is expected to regain growth momentum in the context of a broader recovery in the condiment industry [2][43]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading player in the domestic pickled vegetable industry, primarily producing pickled mustard tubers. It has experienced both rapid growth and stagnation in recent years due to industry slowdowns and internal challenges [1][5]. Recent Developments - Since 2023, the new management has initiated organizational adjustments and strategic changes, marking three key turning points: improved sales expense implementation, revised pricing strategies, and expanded restaurant market channels [1][2][11]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a revenue growth of 9.8% and a net profit growth of 10.37% for 2025, with an expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.83 yuan. The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 16.2 times [2][3][43]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on multi-category development, with growth in other product lines expected to inject new momentum into its business. The emphasis on restaurant channel development is seen as a significant growth opportunity [2][30][34]. Competitive Landscape - The company holds a dominant market share in the pickled vegetable sector, benefiting from its established brand recognition and distribution capabilities. It has been able to implement price increases effectively, maintaining its competitive edge [22][35].

Group 1: Product Development and Market Strategy - The company has optimized its product categories based on market research results, increasing R&D efforts for future market promotions, with specific plans still in preparation for next year [2] - The company launched a low-salt product in 2022, which is gradually replacing the original version in the market, with feedback leading to the introduction of a 60g original packaging product in select regions [3][5] - The main products' prices have not been adjusted, although the pickled vegetable sauce product saw a price reduction at the end of the year based on terminal feedback [6] Group 2: Channel Expansion and Competition - The company has established a restaurant division in 2023, actively recruiting professionals and collaborating with distributors to expand its restaurant channel [2][7] - The pickled vegetable industry is currently focused on stock competition and market share acquisition in first and second-tier markets, with the company planning targeted promotional activities in response to competitive pressures [7] - New product categories, including radish and pickled vegetables, have been added to the restaurant channel, leveraging their broad consumption scenarios [7] Group 3: Investor Relations and Communication - The investor relations activity was conducted online on December 24, 2024, with participation from various investment institutions [2] - For more recent research and frequently asked questions, stakeholders can refer to the company's published investor relations activity records on the interactive platform [8]