上 市 公 司 有色金属 ——140 万吨技改项目落地，未来公司产量有望释放 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 06 月 18 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 8.38 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 9.88/6.08 | | 市净率 | 1.4 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 4.77 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 34,609 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,388.81/10,175.59 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 5.99 | | 资产负债率% | 49.30 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 4,652/4,130 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 06-18 07-18 08-18 09-18 10-18 11-18 12-18 01-18 02-18 03-18 04-18 05-18 06-18 -30% ...

Group 1 - In 2024, China's bauxite production is expected to be approximately 93 million tons, remaining stable compared to 2023 due to environmental regulations and mining restrictions [1] - China's alumina production is projected to reach about 85.52 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.9% [2] - The output of electrolytic aluminum in China is estimated to be around 44.01 million tons in 2024, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [4] Group 2 - China's recycled aluminum production is anticipated to be about 10.5 million tons in 2024, continuing its growth trend despite previous slowdowns [5][8] - The production of aluminum processing materials in China is expected to be around 64.6 million tons in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, accounting for 67.15% of the global total [9]

记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2025-036 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 本次担保后，本公司及控股子公司对外担保总额超过最近一期经审计净资产 限公司提供担保，属于对资产负债率超过 70%的对象提供担保。敬请投资者充分 关注担保风险。 一、担保情况概述 （一）担保情况 根据公司业务的发展和生产经营的需要，天山铝业集团股份有限公司（以下 简称"天山铝业""公司"或"本公司"）为招商银行股份有限公司石河子分行（以下 简称"招商银行石河子分行"）对本公司全资子公司新疆生产建设兵团第八师天山 铝业有限公司（以下简称"天铝有限"）享有的 2.5 亿元人民币主债权提供最高额 保证担保；为上海农村商业银行股份有限公司上海长三角一体化示范区分行（以 下简称"上海农商行长三角一体化示范区分行"）对本公司全资孙公司上海辛然实 业有限公司（以下简称"上海辛然"）享有的 1.755 亿元人民币主债权提供最高 ...

Group 1 - The overall economic operation in 2024 was stable, with a 5.8% increase in industrial added value for large-scale enterprises, and a 8.9% growth in the non-ferrous metal industry [15][16] - The non-ferrous metal industry saw a profit increase of 24.5% in the smelting and rolling sector and 47.8% in the mining sector in the first four months of 2025 [15] - The non-ferrous metal industry index rose by 16.41% as of June 13, 2025, outperforming other sectors [16] Group 2 - Gold prices are expected to rise due to multiple factors including weakened dollar credit, increased central bank purchases, and ongoing geopolitical risks [20][34] - In 2024, global central banks purchased 1,045 tons of gold, accounting for 21% of total demand, with significant purchases from emerging market countries [23] - The demand for gold in investment increased by 25% in 2024, reaching 1,180 tons, with bar investment demand growing significantly [23][30] Group 3 - The strategic metals sector, including rare earths and tungsten, is crucial for national defense, economic development, and technological advancement, with China leading in production and reserves [50][62] - The supply of rare earths is expected to tighten due to export controls and limited quota increases, while demand from new energy vehicles and robotics continues to grow [50][67] - The tungsten market is projected to remain strong due to increasing demand from photovoltaic and nuclear fusion sectors, despite tightening supply [50][67] Group 4 - The aluminum industry faces rigid supply constraints with a production cap of 45 million tons, while demand is expected to grow in the new energy sector [4][18] - The demand for aluminum in the automotive and new energy sectors is on the rise, with significant increases in production for battery foils and structural components [4][18] - The copper market is experiencing a shift in demand dynamics, with traditional demand weakening while new energy applications drive growth [5][8]

证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2025-036 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 关于公司对全资子公司和全资孙公司提供担保的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 本次担保后，本公司及控股子公司对外担保总额超过最近一期经审计净资产 100%（均为合并报表内单位担保）；公司本次对下属全资孙公司上海辛然实业有 限公司提供担保，属于对资产负债率超过 70%的对象提供担保。敬请投资者充分 关注担保风险。 一、担保情况概述 （一）担保情况 单位：万元 三、被担保方基本情况 （一）公司名称：新疆生产建设兵团第八师天山铝业有限公司 根据公司业务的发展和生产经营的需要，天山铝业集团股份有限公司（以下 简称"天山铝业""公司"或"本公司"）为招商银行股份有限公司石河子分行（以下 简称"招商银行石河子分行"）对本公司全资子公司新疆生产建设兵团第八师天山 铝业有限公司（以下简称"天铝有限"）享有的 2.5 亿元人民币主债权提供最高额 保证担保； ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical tensions and the decline of the US dollar index have led to a strong performance in gold prices, with COMEX gold rising 3.65% to $3,452.60 per ounce this week [23][25] - The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of two cuts this year, the first likely in September [3][43] - The uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran and Israel, is contributing to a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver [5][17] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX silver increased by 0.66% to $36.37 per ounce, while SHFE gold rose 1.42% to ¥794.36 per gram [23][25] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 201,954.41 troy ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 1,090,806.40 ounces [25] - The gold-silver ratio rose by 2.97% to 94.93 this week [25] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper fell 0.24% to $9,647.50 per ton, while aluminum rose 2.10% to $2,503.00 per ton [49] - SHFE copper decreased by 1.17% to ¥78,010.00 per ton, and aluminum increased by 1.84% to ¥20,440.00 per ton [49] - The supply of copper is expected to tighten due to maintenance plans at domestic smelters and the ongoing geopolitical situation [7][8] Copper - The supply side is affected by a downward adjustment in the annual production forecast for the Kamoa-Kakula project and ongoing maintenance at the Cobre copper mine [7][44] - Domestic copper rod enterprises' weekly operating rate rose to 73.21%, but actual purchases are subdued due to high prices [7] - SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5.08% to 101,900 tons, while LME inventory fell by 13.54% to 114,500 tons [74] Aluminum - The aluminum industry operates at over 95% capacity, with minor maintenance plans causing limited supply disruptions [9][78] - Demand for aluminum products has softened, with a decrease in operating rates for various aluminum products [9][78] - SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 6.91% to 110,000 tons, while LME inventory fell by 2.92% to 353,200 tons [11][78] Zinc - Zinc prices are under pressure due to weak demand, with domestic zinc ore processing fees rising [79] - SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 3.29% to 45,466 tons, while LME inventory fell by 4.36% to 131,000 tons [79]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [3] Core Views - The company is implementing a 1.4 million ton electrolytic aluminum energy efficiency improvement plan, which is expected to enhance its production capacity and long-term cost advantages [6] - The projected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.17, 1.37, and 1.58 yuan respectively, with a target price of 9.36 yuan based on an 8x PE valuation for 2025 [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is forecasted to decline from 28,975 million yuan in 2023 to 28,089 million yuan in 2024, before increasing to 35,501 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 26.4% [2][8] - Operating profit is expected to rise significantly from 2,642 million yuan in 2023 to 5,219 million yuan in 2024, and further to 6,096 million yuan in 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 97.6% [2][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 2,205 million yuan in 2023 to 4,455 million yuan in 2024, and to 5,426 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 102.0% [2][8] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 14.1% in 2023 to 23.3% in 2024, and stabilize around 21.5% to 23.6% in the following years [2][8] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a leading player in the electrolytic aluminum industry, benefiting from a significant reduction in energy costs due to falling coal prices [6] - The implementation of advanced energy-saving technologies in the production process is expected to further reduce production costs and enhance operational efficiency [6] - The company has demonstrated strong cash flow generation capabilities, which supports stable dividend distributions [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [3] Core Views - The company is implementing a 1.4 million ton electrolytic aluminum energy efficiency improvement plan, which is expected to enhance its production capacity and long-term cost advantages [6] - The projected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.17, 1.37, and 1.58 yuan respectively, with a target price of 9.36 yuan based on an 8x PE valuation for 2025 [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is forecasted to decline from 28,975 million yuan in 2023 to 28,089 million yuan in 2024, before increasing to 35,501 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 26.4% [2][8] - Operating profit is expected to rise significantly from 2,642 million yuan in 2023 to 5,219 million yuan in 2024, and further to 6,096 million yuan in 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 97.6% [2][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 2,205 million yuan in 2023 to 4,455 million yuan in 2024, and to 5,426 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 102.0% [2][8] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 14.1% in 2023 to 23.3% in 2024, and stabilize around 21.5% to 23.6% in the following years [2][8] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a leading player in the electrolytic aluminum industry, benefiting from a significant reduction in energy costs due to falling coal prices [6] - The implementation of advanced energy-saving technologies in the production process is expected to further reduce production costs and enhance operational efficiency [6] - The company has demonstrated strong cash flow generation capabilities, which supports stable dividend distributions [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [3] Core Views - The company is implementing a 1.4 million ton electrolytic aluminum energy efficiency improvement plan, which is expected to enhance its production capacity and long-term cost advantages [6] - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027, predicting EPS of 1.17, 1.37, and 1.58 yuan respectively, with a target price of 9.36 yuan based on an 8x PE valuation for 2025 [2][3] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 35,501 million yuan, 40,269 million yuan, and 42,569 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 26.4%, 13.4%, and 5.7% respectively [2] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 6,096 million yuan in 2025 to 8,250 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 16.8%, 17.6%, and 15.1% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 5,426 million yuan in 2025 to 7,343 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 21.8%, 17.6%, and 15.1% [2] - The company’s gross margin is projected to be 21.5% in 2025, increasing to 23.6% by 2027 [2] - The net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 15.3% to 17.2% from 2025 to 2027 [2] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from 18.6% in 2025 to 19.0% in 2027 [2] Market Performance - As of June 9, 2025, the stock price was 8.06 yuan, with a 52-week high of 9.64 yuan and a low of 5.8 yuan [3] - The company has shown a relative performance of 3.37% over the past week and 10.47% over the past month [4]

公司报告 | 公司点评 天山铝业（002532） 证券研究报告 20 万吨电解铝富余指标拟开始建设，达产后产量增量 21% 事件：6 月 6 日公司发布公告，拟对公司 140 万吨电解铝产能进行绿色低 碳能效提升改造。项目完工后，公司电解铝产量将提升至 140 万吨/年左右， 铝液综合交流电耗将达到行业领先水平。 项目概况：1）建设期：暂定 10 个月，按照目前时间点推算，项目将于 26 年 4 月投产/达产；2）项目投资：约 22.31 亿元；3）场地：石河子厂区东 侧预留场地；4）技术路线：本项目采用全石墨化阴极炭块和新式节能阴 极结构技术，具有内衬寿命高、电阻率低、钠膨胀率低、抗热冲击性好、 电阻率低、运行稳定性和电流效率高等诸多优点；5）项目进度：项目已 获得相关政府部门的备案及批复，议案已获得公司董事会审议通过。 电解铝产能 120 万吨→140 万吨，达产后产量增量 21% 公司拥有 140 万吨电解铝产能指标，目前已建成 120 万吨电解铝产能， 实际年产量约 116 万吨左右（25 年经营计划原铝产量 116 万吨），尚余 24 万吨产能待建，预计该项目建成后形成 24 万吨产量净增量，增幅 ...