Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Basic Materials, specifically focusing on Copper and Aluminium - **Current Trends**: Fundamentals are stable with an improving outlook for industrial metals driven by macroeconomic factors such as US rate cuts, US dollar weakness, and China's potential stimulus measures due to weak economic data [2][3] Core Insights - **Copper Market**: - Demand normalization post-tariff has not negatively impacted prices as anticipated in Q3 2025 [2] - UBS raised copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 3% to US$4.37/lb and US$4.80/lb respectively [3] - Expected supply constraints and strong secular growth drivers (e.g., electrification) will support prices in 2026/2027 [3] - **Aluminium Market**: - Demand remains mixed, but supply constraints, particularly from China, are supporting prices [4] - Aluminium price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were increased by 5% and 2% to US$1.17/lb and US$1.18/lb respectively [4] Earnings and Price Target Adjustments - **Earnings Forecasts**: - Increased earnings forecasts for Zijin, CMOC, and JCC by 4%-5% for 2025 and 5%-9% for 2026 due to higher price expectations for copper, aluminium, and gold [5] - Specific earnings adjustments include: - Zijin: 2025 NPAT raised to Rmb 46,519 million (+4%) and 2026 NPAT to Rmb 57,056 million (+9%) [19] - CMOC: 2025 NPAT raised to Rmb 17,504 million (+5%) and 2026 NPAT to Rmb 19,200 million (+6%) [19] - **Price Target Changes**: - Price targets for key companies were raised, including: - Zijin H: Target increased by 9% to Rmb 35.4 [19] - CMOC H: Target increased by 6% to Rmb 17.5 [19] - Hongqiao: Target increased by 4% to Rmb 28.0 [19] Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: - The overall outlook for industrial metals is improving, with a reduced risk of a near-term demand slowdown [2] - Potential for restocking in developed markets could support prices as traditional end markets recover [2] - **Investment Recommendations**: - Top picks include Zijin, JCC, Hongqiao, and Tianshan based on revised earnings and price targets [5] Important but Overlooked Content - **Macroeconomic Drivers**: The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic themes rather than physical market tightness in supporting metal prices [2] - **Equity Rotation**: There is a noted equity rotation into mining stocks, indicating investor confidence in the sector's recovery [2] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the copper and aluminium markets, along with specific company performance forecasts and investment recommendations.

Group 1 - UBS reports that industrial metal prices are supported by positive macroeconomic factors, including US interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, confidence in AI trade, and China's anti-involution policies along with potential additional stimulus measures from China [1] - The overall outlook for industrial metals is improving, with the risk of a significant short-term demand slowdown diminishing, while the medium-term fundamentals for copper and aluminum remain attractive [1] - UBS has raised its copper price forecasts for this year and next by 3%, from $4.24 and $4.68 per pound to $4.37 and $4.80 respectively, due to limited supply growth and recovering traditional demand [1] Group 2 - UBS has increased its earnings estimates for Zijin Mining (601899), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), and Jiangxi Copper (600362) by 4%, 5%, and 5% respectively for this year, and by 9%, 6%, and 5% for next year [2] - The firm has also raised its earnings forecasts for China Hongqiao, Aluminum Corporation of China (601600), and Tianshan Aluminum (002532) by 5% to 8% for next year [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6]. Core Views - The market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut, and the non-ferrous and steel sectors are set to rebound [9][15]. - Despite a recent decline in aluminum prices, the profitability of the electrolytic aluminum sector remains stable due to a simultaneous decrease in raw material costs [9][15]. - Gold prices are expected to rise in the medium term due to multiple factors, enhancing corporate profitability and dividend intentions [9][15]. - The steel sector is poised for mid-term profitability improvements, with potential increases in dividends as the Simandou iron ore project progresses [9][15]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous and Steel Industry Overview - The non-ferrous and steel sectors experienced a notable decline prior to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, driven by speculative trading [9][15]. - The market is expected to shift towards low-risk, high-dividend segments within the non-ferrous and steel sectors [9][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Although aluminum prices have decreased, the profitability of the sector remains stable due to lower raw material costs [9][15]. - Future price increases are anticipated as supply-demand dynamics tighten, potentially leading to higher dividend payouts from companies like Tianshan Aluminum [9][15]. Gold Sector - The recent interest rate cut is expected to lead to a short-term stabilization or correction in gold prices, but medium-term prospects remain positive [9][15]. - Increased profitability in gold mining companies is likely to result in higher dividend distributions [9][15]. Steel Sector - The Simandou iron ore project is entering a decisive phase, which could enhance mid-term profitability and dividend capabilities for steel companies [9][15]. - The steel price is expected to stabilize and potentially increase, supported by cost structures and seasonal demand shifts [9][15]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes a seasonal increase in rebar consumption, with a week-on-week rise of 6.04% [17][22]. - Inventory levels show a divergence between social and steel mill stocks, indicating structural improvements in demand [22][24]. Price Trends - The overall steel price index has seen a slight increase of 0.50%, with specific products like steel billets showing a 1.18% rise [37][38]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring price movements in raw materials, which are crucial for profitability in the steel sector [29][34].

证券日报网讯 9月19日晚间，天山铝业发布公告称，公司近日接到股东、实际控制人曾超林函告，获悉 其所持有本公司的部分股份解除质押，本次解除质押股份数量为5，700万股。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Group 1 - Tianshan Aluminum Industry announced the release of 57 million shares from pledge by its shareholder and actual controller, Zeng Chaolin [1] - As of the report date, Tianshan Aluminum's market capitalization is 51.3 billion yuan [2] - The company's revenue composition for the first half of 2025 is entirely from the aluminum industry, accounting for 100% [2]

关于实际控制人部分股份解除质押的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、股东股份质押后续进展 证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2025-059 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 1 / 2 | 石河子 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 市锦汇 | | | | | | | | | | | 能源投 | 34,535.80 | 7.42% | 17,268.00 | 50.00% | 3.71% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 资有限 | | | | | | | | | | | 公司 | | | | | | | | | | | 曾超懿 | 39,377.84 | 8.46% | 11,310.00 | 28.72% | 2.43% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 曾超林 | 30,206.1 ...

Company Overview - Tianshan Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. is located in Shanghai and was established on November 3, 1997, with its listing date on December 31, 2010 [1] - The company specializes in the production and sales of primary aluminum, aluminum deep processing products, prebaked anodes, high-purity aluminum, and alumina [1] - The revenue composition includes 65.26% from aluminum ingots, 24.20% from alumina, 6.89% from aluminum foil and foil materials, 2.10% from high-purity aluminum, and 1.55% from other sources [1] Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Tianshan Aluminum achieved a revenue of 15.328 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.19% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 2.084 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.51% year-on-year [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 6.562 billion yuan, with 3.463 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3] Stock Performance - On September 19, Tianshan Aluminum's stock price increased by 2.03%, reaching 11.06 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 51.45 billion yuan [1] - The stock has seen a year-to-date increase of 44.16%, a decline of 3.66% over the last five trading days, a rise of 13.67% over the last 20 days, and a 29.51% increase over the last 60 days [1] - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 49,700, with an average of 83,175 circulating shares per person, a decrease of 4.25% from the previous period [2] Shareholding Structure - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the seventh largest circulating shareholder, holding 113 million shares, which is a decrease of 10.084 million shares from the previous period [3]

Group 1 - Tianshan Aluminum experienced a decline of 5.06% on September 18, with a stock price of 10.88 CNY per share, a trading volume of 578 million CNY, a turnover rate of 1.27%, and a total market capitalization of 50.613 billion CNY [1] - Tianshan Aluminum Group Co., Ltd. is located in Shanghai and was established on November 3, 1997, with its listing date on December 31, 2010. The company specializes in the production and sales of primary aluminum, aluminum deep processing products, prebaked anodes, high-purity aluminum, and alumina [1] - The main business revenue composition includes: sales of self-produced aluminum ingots at 65.26%, sales of alumina at 24.20%, sales of aluminum foil and aluminum foil raw materials at 6.89%, sales of high-purity aluminum at 2.10%, and other sales at 1.55% [1] Group 2 - According to data from the top ten heavy stocks of funds, one fund under Bosera Fund holds Tianshan Aluminum as a significant investment. Bosera Xintai Mixed A (004175) held 32,800 shares in the second quarter, accounting for 0.63% of the fund's net value, ranking as the seventh largest heavy stock [2] - The latest scale of Bosera Xintai Mixed A (004175) is 3.2026 million CNY. Since the beginning of the year, it has incurred a loss of 0.35%, ranking 8105 out of 8193 in its category; over the past year, it has achieved a return of 3.27%, ranking 7699 out of 7977; and since its inception, it has gained 100.61% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to shift towards low-risk, high-dividend sectors, making the allocation in non-ferrous and steel sectors timely. The operating performance of most sub-sectors in the non-ferrous and steel industry has shown significant improvement in both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter comparisons [15][16] - Copper prices have surpassed $10,000 per ton, with expectations for profitability and dividend rates to gradually increase for copper mining companies. For instance, Zangge Mining reported a mid-term dividend of 1.569 billion yuan, with a dividend rate significantly raised to 87% [15][16] - Aluminum prices have risen, leading to upward revisions in profitability and dividend expectations. The aluminum price has reached 21,000 yuan per ton, and companies like Tianshan Aluminum have increased their dividend rates to 50% [16] - The rare earth sector is anticipated to enter a new phase of price increases due to the resumption of bidding by downstream magnetic material manufacturers, with companies like Jinkeli Yongci reporting a mid-term dividend rate of 81% [16] - Steel companies are expected to enhance their dividend capabilities as profitability improves and capital expenditures decline. For example, Huazhong Steel has seen an increase in shareholding by Xintai Life Insurance, which plans to continue increasing its stake [16] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous and Steel Industry - The report highlights the positive outlook for low-risk, high-dividend sub-sectors within the non-ferrous and steel industry, driven by improving operating performance and rising commodity prices [15][16] - The copper market is experiencing tight supply, pushing prices above $10,000 per ton, which is expected to enhance profitability and dividends for mining companies [15][16] - The aluminum sector is benefiting from a favorable supply-demand balance, with prices rising and companies increasing their dividend rates [16] - The rare earth market is poised for growth as bidding resumes in downstream sectors, leading to improved profitability and dividend stability [16] - Steel companies are likely to see enhanced profitability and dividend capabilities due to reduced capital expenditures and improved market conditions [16]

| 股东 | 是否为控股 股东或第一 | 本次质押 | 占其所 | 占公司 | 是否 | 是否 为补 | 质押起 | 质押到 | | 质押 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 大股东及其 | 数量（万 | 持股份 | 总股本 | 为限 | 充质 | 始日 | 期日 | 质权人 | 用途 | | | 一致行动人 | 股） | 比例 | 比例 | 售股 | 押 | | | | | | 曾超 | | | | | | | 2025/9/ | 2027/8/ | 银河金汇 证券资产 | 偿还 | | 林 | 是 | 3,400.00 | 11.26% | 0.73% | 否 | 否 | 15 | 27 | 管理有限 | 存量 | | | | | | | | | | | 公司 | 负债 | 1、本次股份质押基本情况 证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2025-058 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 关于实际控制人部分股份质押的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没 ...