| 证券代码：002541 | 证券简称：鸿路钢构 | 公告编号：2025-033 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：128134 | 债券简称：鸿路转债 | | 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司 单位：人民币 万元 关于为子公司担保事项的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、对外担保情况概述 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司（以下简称：公司或本公司）分别于 2024 年 11 月 20 日召开第六届董事会第十五次会议、2024 年 12 月 9 日召开 2024 年第二次临时股东大会，审议通过了《关于 2025 年度公司对子公司提供担保额 度的议案》，同意公司为安徽鸿翔建材有限公司等 16 家子公司银行融资提供担 保总额度 141.48 亿元，具体担保额度明细如下表： | 被担保人名称 | 资产负债 | 贷款银行 | 担保金额(不 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 率 | 中国建设银行股份有限公司 | 超过） 68,000.00 | | | | 中国农业银行股份有限公司 合肥科 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a decline in revenue and profit due to weak downstream demand and falling steel prices, but it maintains a strong market position and is expected to recover in the coming years [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 137 million yuan, a decrease of 32.8% [1]. - The company signed new orders worth 7.05 billion yuan in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with steel structure production reaching 1.049 million tons, up 14.3% year-on-year [1]. - The company's full-year revenue for 2024 is projected to be 21.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.6%, with a net profit of 772 million yuan, down 34.5% year-on-year [1][2]. Market Conditions - The company’s new orders for 2024 are expected to be 28.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year, with steel structure production at 4.511 million tons, a slight increase of 0.5% [2]. - The average price of section steel in 2024 is projected to be 3,814 yuan per ton, down 298 yuan from the previous year, while the cost per ton of steel structure is 4,277 yuan, down 384 yuan [2]. Profitability - The gross profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 10.33%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous year, primarily due to declining steel prices and increased inventory costs [2]. - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 is projected to be 570 million yuan, a decrease of 47.8% year-on-year, indicating slower collection from customers [2]. Investment Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast and an "outperform" rating, citing its strong market position and ongoing investments in automation to reduce costs [3]. - The expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 930 million, 1.02 billion, and 1.14 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14.1, 12.9, and 11.5 [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [11]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in sales volume, with a year-on-year growth of over 20% in Q1 2025. The production volume increased by 14%, and the sales volume grew by 27% due to a saturated order book and strong demand [13]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 137 million, a year-on-year decrease of 32.78%, while the non-recurring net profit was 115 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 31.27% [2][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from internal cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, leading to a recovery in profit margins [13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of 4.815 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.78%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 137 million, down 32.78% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 115 million, up 31.27% year-on-year [2][8]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities turned negative due to increased procurement costs, indicating a strategic move to stock up on materials amid strong order demand [13]. Operational Insights - The company’s production and sales rates improved significantly, with a production and sales rate of 98%, leading to a notable increase in both production and sales volumes [13]. - The company’s gross profit per ton showed a year-on-year decline of approximately 120 yuan/ton, primarily due to a sustained decrease in steel prices over the past year [13]. Market Outlook - The company has a low market share of 5% in its sector, indicating potential for growth as it expands its market presence and explores overseas opportunities [13]. - The company is positioned to benefit from potential domestic demand stimulation policies, especially in the industrial construction sector, which constitutes 70% of its downstream demand [13]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company is at a confirmed operational turning point, with non-recurring net profits improving against the trend, indicating a positive outlook for mid-term performance [13]. - The company’s advancements in smart manufacturing technology are expected to enhance cost efficiency and production capacity, further supporting growth [13].

Summary of China Building Products Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China building products industry, specifically six stocks across five sectors: steel structure, glass, construction hardware, ceramic tile, and anti-seismic [1][3]. Key Points and Arguments Sales Growth and Market Recovery - Sales growth showed recovery in 1Q25 after a weak 2024, with the steel structure sector leading year-over-year (yoy) revenue growth [3][19]. - Orders in 1Q25 indicated positive trends, but 2Q demand growth is critical for companies to meet full-year guidance [3][10]. - Infrastructure and manufacturing investments (FAI) were resilient, contributing to order growth in the steel structure sector, with SOE construction companies' overseas orders growing by 21% yoy in 1Q25 [3][21]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Steel Structure**: Honglu's orders turned around to +1% yoy after four quarters of decline, while Jinggong's orders moderated to +1% yoy from +8% yoy in FY24 [3][23]. - **Float Glass**: Order days improved from a 30% yoy decline in 1Q to a high-teens decline in April, with factory inventory down 10% since mid-March [3][30]. - **Construction Hardware**: Kinlong aimed for flat sales in FY25, with 1Q25 sales accelerating to +28% yoy [3][5]. - **Ceramic Tile**: The industry may see further volume contraction, with a significant share of aged accounts receivable (AR) rising [4][49]. - **Anti-Seismic**: Orders remained lukewarm due to weak public project constructions, particularly in high seismic areas [4][58]. Margin and Profitability Challenges - Margin pressure persisted, with gross profit margins (GPM) declining across the board in 2024 and 1Q25, primarily due to intensified retail competition and industry overcapacity [5][63]. - Companies are focusing on cost control to drive earnings recovery, with expectations of stable GPM in 2025E [6][10]. Capital Allocation and Cash Flow - Capital allocation has become more prudent, with average capex declining by approximately 20% quarter-over-quarter in 3Q/4Q24 and 1Q25 [6][10]. - Operating cash flow (OCF) showed weakness in 2024, with cash/accounting revenue ratios inching up by 5 percentage points [6][70]. Target Price and Stock Recommendations - Target prices for 2025E-27E earnings were revised down by an average of 1%, reflecting a 3% lower topline and recent margin trends [8][9]. - The steel structure and building materials indices have outperformed year-to-date, with selective buy ratings on Honglu and Kinlong, while Jinggong received a sell rating [10][13]. Additional Important Insights - The ceramic tile sector has seen a shift towards 2C channels, increasing from below 50% in 2021 to approximately 70% in 2024 [47]. - The share of aged AR is rising, particularly affecting companies like Dongpeng and Quakesafe, while Honglu and Kinlong are better positioned [7][49]. - The overall valuation for most sectors remains undemanding, with P/E and P/B ratios at low historical percentiles [14][10]. This summary encapsulates the key takeaways from the conference call, highlighting the recovery trends, sector-specific insights, margin pressures, and strategic recommendations for investors in the China building products industry.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has faced operational pressure over the past 24 years, but there has been an improvement in profit per ton in Q1 2025 compared to the previous quarter [1][11] - The company’s total revenue and net profit for 2024 were 21.5 billion and 770 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9% and 35% [5][11] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 4.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, while net profit decreased by 33% [5][11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company’s steel structure business generated revenue of 20.8 billion yuan, down 9% year-on-year, with a sales volume of 4.33 million tons, up 2% [6] - The average price per ton was 4,803 yuan, a decrease of 10% year-on-year due to falling steel prices [6] - The gross profit margin for the steel structure business was 17.1 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year, with a gross profit per ton of 394 yuan, down 18% [6] Operational Performance - The company signed new orders worth 28.3 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, with a production volume of 4.51 million tons [6] - The production and sales rate was 96.1%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [6] Q1 2025 Performance - In Q1 2025, the company produced 1.05 million tons, with a sales volume of approximately 1 million tons [10] - The gross profit per ton was 475 yuan, down 57% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in steel prices [10] - The company reported a significant reduction in R&D expenses, indicating a potential peak in the intensity of its smart transformation efforts [10] Financial Forecasts - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 1.03 billion yuan and 1.15 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 21% and 30% [11] - The report anticipates improvements in profitability as the company’s smart transformation progresses [11] Market Position - The company’s stock price has experienced a significant correction, and the improvement in ton profit in Q1 2025 supports the "Buy" rating [11]

Core Viewpoint - Honglu Steel Structure (002541.SZ) reported its Q1 2025 financial results, highlighting significant institutional investor activity and changes in public fund holdings [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Investor Holdings - As of April 30, 2025, 49 institutional investors disclosed holdings in Honglu Steel Structure A-shares, totaling 145 million shares, which represents 20.96% of the company's total equity [1]. - The top ten institutional investors collectively hold 13.92% of the shares, with a decrease of 0.82 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1]. Group 2: Public Fund Activity - In the current period, 10 public funds increased their holdings, with a total increase rate of 0.89%, including funds like Zhonggeng Value Leadership Mixed and Zhonggeng Value Quality One-Year Holding Mixed [2]. - Conversely, 20 public funds reduced their holdings, with a total decrease rate of 1.46%, including funds such as Invesco Great Wall China Return Mixed A and Zhonggeng Small Cap Value Stock [2]. - Eight new public funds were disclosed this period, while 133 public funds were not disclosed compared to the previous quarter [2]. Group 3: Foreign Investor Attitude - The only foreign institution that did not disclose holdings in the current period was Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [7][19]. Core Views - The company has shown a steady revenue growth with a year-on-year increase of 8.78% in Q1 2025, achieving a revenue of 4.815 billion [1]. - The non-recurring profit has significantly improved, with a non-recurring net profit of 115 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.27% [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from its investments in automation and smart technology, with projections for net profit reaching 1.222 billion by 2027 [4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 137 million, a decrease of 32.78% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 115 million, marking a 31.27% increase [1]. - The production volume of steel structure products increased by 14.29% year-on-year, reaching approximately 1.049 million tons in Q1 2025 [2]. - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 9.83%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points year-on-year, with a per-ton gross profit of 473 yuan [2]. Cost Management - The company effectively managed its period expenses, achieving a period expense ratio of 6.21%, down 0.97 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company has seen a reduction in accounts receivable, decreasing by 520 million compared to the end of 2024, indicating improved cash flow management [3]. R&D and Automation - The company has made significant strides in automation, deploying nearly 2,000 welding robots across its production bases since 2023, which is expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [4]. - R&D expenses in Q1 2025 decreased to 125 million, down 20.1% year-on-year, contributing to the improvement in per-ton net profit [2]. Financial Projections - The projected revenues for the company are expected to grow from 21.514 billion in 2024 to 33.630 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14.66% [5]. - The estimated net profit for 2025 is projected at 868.65 million, with a year-on-year growth of 12.48% [5].

证券研究报告 鸿路钢构 (002541 CH) Q1 吨净利迎来改善拐点 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 30 日│中国内地 | 建筑施工 | 公司发布一季报：2025Q1 实现营收 48 亿元，同比+8.78%，归母净利 1.37 亿元，同比-32.78%，扣非净利 1.15 亿元，同比+31.27%。我们认为公司 在经过两年智能化改造投入后，25 年有望迎来资本开支影响减弱、产能利 用率恢复爬坡趋势、机器人应用降本增效阶段。公司 25Q1 新签订单测算量 137 万吨，同比+13.9%，实现产量 104.91 万吨，同比+14.3%，吨净利 109 元/吨，同比提升 14 元/吨，环比提升 10 元/吨，盈利能力连续 7 个季度同比 下滑以来首次迎来改善拐点，维持"买入"评级。 25Q1 研发费用减少，吨净利同、环比提升 25Q1 公司毛利率为 9.83%，同比-0.76pct，环比-0.93pct，吨毛利同比减少 60 元/吨，环比减少 29 元/吨，显示成本端受钢价持续下滑的影响有所降低。 我 们 测 算 2 ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 30 年 月 日 鸿路钢构（002541.SZ） 25Q1 扣非业绩超预期，盈利拐点已现 25Q1 营收增速拐头向上，扣非业绩超预期。公司 25Q1 实现营收 48.2 亿 元，同增 8.8%，结束连续 4 个季度的收入下滑；实现扣非后归母净利润 1.1 亿元，同比大幅增长 31%，超市场预期，主因 Q1 研发费用率下降； 实现归母净利润 1.4 亿元，同降 33%，同比下滑主因上年同期确认较多的 政府补助。25Q1 以产量计算的吨扣非后净利 109 元，同比/环比提升 14/10 元，单吨盈利能力已实现触底回升。公司 25Q1 新签订单同增 1.3%，历 经 4 个季度同比下滑后增速回正；钢结构产量同增 14.3%显著加速，结束 连续 4 个季度产量微增的状态。整体看公司 25Q1 订单、产量、营收、扣 非吨净利均出现向上拐点，后续公司业绩有望持续向上修复。 毛利率下降，费用率降低，钢材采购增多致 Q1 现金流净流出。25Q1 公 司毛利率 9.83%，YoY-0.76 个 pct，主因钢结构售价跟随钢价下行（25Q1 热轧卷板日均价格 ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 30 年 月 日 鸿路钢构（002541.SZ） 25Q1 扣非业绩超预期，盈利拐点已现 25Q1 营收增速拐头向上，扣非业绩超预期。公司 25Q1 实现营收 48.2 亿 元，同增 8.8%，结束连续 4 个季度的收入下滑；实现扣非后归母净利润 1.1 亿元，同比大幅增长 31%，超市场预期，主因 Q1 研发费用率下降； 实现归母净利润 1.4 亿元，同降 33%，同比下滑主因上年同期确认较多的 政府补助。25Q1 以产量计算的吨扣非后净利 109 元，同比/环比提升 14/10 元，单吨盈利能力已实现触底回升。公司 25Q1 新签订单同增 1.3%，历 经 4 个季度同比下滑后增速回正；钢结构产量同增 14.3%显著加速，结束 连续 4 个季度产量微增的状态。整体看公司 25Q1 订单、产量、营收、扣 非吨净利均出现向上拐点，后续公司业绩有望持续向上修复。 股价走势 -50% -36% -22% -8% 6% 20% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 鸿路钢构 沪深300 毛利率下降，费用率降低，钢材采购增 ...