证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 30 年 月 日 鸿路钢构（002541.SZ） 25Q1 扣非业绩超预期，盈利拐点已现 25Q1 营收增速拐头向上，扣非业绩超预期。公司 25Q1 实现营收 48.2 亿 元，同增 8.8%，结束连续 4 个季度的收入下滑；实现扣非后归母净利润 1.1 亿元，同比大幅增长 31%，超市场预期，主因 Q1 研发费用率下降； 实现归母净利润 1.4 亿元，同降 33%，同比下滑主因上年同期确认较多的 政府补助。25Q1 以产量计算的吨扣非后净利 109 元，同比/环比提升 14/10 元，单吨盈利能力已实现触底回升。公司 25Q1 新签订单同增 1.3%，历 经 4 个季度同比下滑后增速回正；钢结构产量同增 14.3%显著加速，结束 连续 4 个季度产量微增的状态。整体看公司 25Q1 订单、产量、营收、扣 非吨净利均出现向上拐点，后续公司业绩有望持续向上修复。 毛利率下降，费用率降低，钢材采购增多致 Q1 现金流净流出。25Q1 公 司毛利率 9.83%，YoY-0.76 个 pct，主因钢结构售价跟随钢价下行（25Q1 热轧卷板日均价格 ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 30 年 月 日 鸿路钢构（002541.SZ） 25Q1 扣非业绩超预期，盈利拐点已现 25Q1 营收增速拐头向上，扣非业绩超预期。公司 25Q1 实现营收 48.2 亿 元，同增 8.8%，结束连续 4 个季度的收入下滑；实现扣非后归母净利润 1.1 亿元，同比大幅增长 31%，超市场预期，主因 Q1 研发费用率下降； 实现归母净利润 1.4 亿元，同降 33%，同比下滑主因上年同期确认较多的 政府补助。25Q1 以产量计算的吨扣非后净利 109 元，同比/环比提升 14/10 元，单吨盈利能力已实现触底回升。公司 25Q1 新签订单同增 1.3%，历 经 4 个季度同比下滑后增速回正；钢结构产量同增 14.3%显著加速，结束 连续 4 个季度产量微增的状态。整体看公司 25Q1 订单、产量、营收、扣 非吨净利均出现向上拐点，后续公司业绩有望持续向上修复。 股价走势 -50% -36% -22% -8% 6% 20% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 鸿路钢构 沪深300 毛利率下降，费用率降低，钢材采购增 ...

Group 1: Fixed Income Market - The recent volatility in the US Treasury market is largely attributed to the upcoming June maturity, which may be overestimated in terms of its impact on financial markets [2] - In the short term, the supply pressure from maturing US Treasuries is expected to be limited, with a more significant focus on the debt ceiling adjustments anticipated in Q3 [2] - Long-term demand for US Treasuries may face a downward trend, with potential alternatives including European and Japanese bonds, as well as gold [2] Group 2: Technology Sector - The report discusses India's potential as the next manufacturing hub for Apple, highlighting the competitive tariff advantages for Indian exports compared to China [4] - Apple theoretically has the capacity to produce the required number of iPhones in India, but initial production will still rely on Chinese exports due to current limitations [4] - The localization of components in India is still in its early stages, with significant reliance on supply chains from other Asian countries for critical parts [4] Group 3: Energy and New Energy - The lithium battery production forecast for May shows a slight decline in overall production, primarily due to the cancellation of mandatory storage policies and the impact of US tariffs on exports [5] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for the lithium battery industry remains positive, driven by new vehicle models and technologies [5] - Recent power outages in Spain, Portugal, and southern France have underscored the need for investment in grid upgrades and DC grid technology, presenting opportunities for Chinese power equipment companies [6] Group 4: Media and Publishing - Phoenix Media reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 3.226 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year decline, but a significant increase in net profit due to continued tax incentives [7] - The company maintains a stable core business and is rated as a "buy" based on its solid performance and favorable tax policies [7] Group 5: Financial Sector - The report indicates that the China Construction Bank's Q1 2025 net profit and revenue showed slight year-over-year changes, with a focus on asset quality and credit expansion [9] - The bank's diversified income sources and stable operations support a "buy" rating [9] Group 6: Consumer Goods - The report highlights the strong performance of China National Offshore Oil Corporation, with Q1 revenues showing a significant year-over-year increase, driven by stable oil and gas production [20] - The company is expected to maintain a "buy" rating due to its robust operational performance and project advancements [20] Group 7: Real Estate - The report notes that China Petroleum's Q1 2025 revenue and net profit exceeded expectations, attributed to increased natural gas production and sales [34] - The company is rated as "increase" based on its strong performance and potential for further growth in the natural gas sector [34]

| 证券代码:002541 | 证券简称:鸿路钢构 | 公告编号:2025-030 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码:128134 | 债券简称:鸿路转债 | | 安徽鸿路钢结构(集团)股份有限公司 关于不向下修正"鸿路转债"转股价格的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 1、证券代码：002541 证券简称：鸿路钢构 2、债券代码：128134 债券简称：鸿路转债 3、转股价格：人民币 32.44 元/股 2、可转换公司债券上市情况 经深圳证券交易所"深证上[2020]971号"文同意，公司本次公开发行的可 转换公司债券于2020年11月2日在深圳证券交易所挂牌交易，债券简称"鸿路转 债"，债券代码"128134"。 特别提示 4、转股期限：2021 年 4 月 15 日至 2026 年 10 月 8 日 5、自 2025 年 4 月 9 日至 2025 年 4 月 29 日期间，公司股票已有十五个交易 日的收盘价低于当期转股价格的 85%（即 32.44 元/股）的情形，已触发"鸿路 转债"转股价格的向下修正条款。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering sector [12]. Core Viewpoints - The Central Political Bureau meeting on April 25 emphasized the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize growth and address risks in key areas, signaling positive stability for the real estate chain [2][9]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of high-quality development to respond to external uncertainties, particularly in the context of international trade tensions, such as the escalating US-China tariff situation [8][9]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to receive policy support as a key driver for economic growth, with a focus on enhancing funding and implementing new policies [10][11]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policies - The report outlines the need for consistent policy orientation, utilizing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, including the issuance of special bonds and maintaining liquidity to support the real economy [9][10]. Real Estate Market - The report indicates that real estate development investment in March 2025 was CNY 0.9 trillion, a decrease of 10.0% year-on-year, with sales and new construction areas also showing declines [62][63]. Infrastructure Investment - In March 2025, narrow infrastructure investment reached CNY 1.9 trillion, up 5.9% year-on-year, while broad infrastructure investment was CNY 2.6 trillion, reflecting a 10.7% increase [54][55]. Sector Performance - The construction sector is advised to focus on the dual themes of stabilizing growth and the "Belt and Road" initiative, with recommendations for companies with high overseas exposure to benefit from increasing international orders [11][12].

| 证券代码：002541 | 证券简称：鸿路钢构 | 公告编号：2025-031 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：128134 | 债券简称：鸿路转债 | | 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司 第六届董事会第二十一次会议决议的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、董事会会议召开情况 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第六届董事会第二十一 次会议于 2025 年 4 月 20 日以送达方式发出，并于 2025 年 4 月 29 日在公司会议室以现场 的方式召开。会议应出席董事 5 人，实际出席董事 5 人，会议由董事长万胜平先生主持， 公司全体监事、高级管理人员列席了会议。本次会议的召集、召开符合《公司法》和《公 司章程》的有关规定，出席会议的董事以书面表决的方式通过了以下决议，决议合法有效。 公司 2025 年第一季度报告全文刊登在《中国证券报》、《证券时报》、《上海证券报》、 《证券日报》和巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）。 （二）会议以 5 票同意，0 票反对，0 票弃权 ...

Financial Performance - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was ¥4,815,493,888.45, representing an increase of 8.78% compared to ¥4,427,021,699.83 in the same period last year[5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 32.78% to ¥136,580,761.60 from ¥203,176,365.95 year-on-year[5] - The basic and diluted earnings per share were both ¥0.1987, down 32.53% from ¥0.2945 in the same period last year[5] - Net profit for the current period was ¥136,344,040.45, a decrease of 32.9% from ¥203,176,365.95 in the previous period[18] - Earnings per share (EPS) decreased to ¥0.1987 from ¥0.2945, representing a decline of 32.5%[19] - The company reported a total comprehensive income of ¥136,344,040.45, down from ¥203,176,365.95, reflecting a decrease of 32.9%[19] Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities was negative at -¥194,985,809.27, a decline of 331.54% compared to ¥84,211,386.56 in the previous year[5] - Cash flow from operating activities showed a net outflow of ¥194,985,809.27, contrasting with a net inflow of ¥84,211,386.56 in the previous period[19] - Net cash flow from investment activities was -232,370,430.01, a decrease from -307,432,342.80[20] - Cash inflow from financing activities increased to 1,366,994,755.21 from 959,288,333.33[20] - Net cash flow from financing activities was 398,854,357.71, up from 302,036,493.14[20] - The company experienced a net decrease in cash and cash equivalents of -28,502,644.35, contrasting with an increase of 78,816,456.49 previously[20] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were ¥25,113,374,757.31, a decrease of 0.51% from ¥25,241,107,676.95 at the end of the previous year[5] - The company's total liabilities decreased from CNY 13,364,984,283.06 to CNY 13,335,092,214.96, a decline of about 0.2%[15] - Total current liabilities decreased from CNY 9,384,493,586.35 to CNY 9,155,291,603.67, a reduction of about 2.4%[15] - The total liabilities amounted to ¥15,363,103,810.23, a decrease from ¥15,627,196,760.71[16] Shareholder Equity - The equity attributable to shareholders increased by 1.42% to ¥9,748,060,095.63 from ¥9,611,463,343.64 at the end of the previous year[5] - Total equity attributable to shareholders increased to ¥9,748,060,095.63 from ¥9,611,463,343.64, marking a growth of 1.4%[16] Operational Metrics - Total operating revenue for the current period reached ¥4,815,493,888.45, an increase of 8.8% compared to ¥4,427,021,699.83 in the previous period[17] - Total operating costs amounted to ¥4,687,017,556.12, up from ¥4,324,377,059.09, reflecting a growth of 8.4%[17] - Research and development expenses were ¥125,182,349.16, down from ¥156,743,176.68, indicating a reduction of 20.1%[17] - Other income decreased significantly to ¥60,466,100.93 from ¥154,362,260.45, a decline of 60.8%[18] Accounts Receivable and Inventory - The company reported a significant increase in accounts receivable financing, which rose by 51.34% to ¥189,052,806.92 from ¥124,922,646.18 year-on-year[9] - Accounts receivable decreased from CNY 3,492,352,749.51 to CNY 2,980,883,264.22, representing a reduction of about 14.6%[14] - Inventory increased from CNY 8,955,611,202.00 to CNY 9,487,798,168.31, an increase of approximately 5.9%[14] Government Subsidies - The company received government subsidies amounting to ¥28,006,298.61, which had a lasting impact on its profits[7] Audit and Accounting Standards - The company did not undergo an audit for the first quarter report[21] - The new accounting standards will be implemented starting in 2025[21]

Group 1: Market Overview - In April, both A-share and Hong Kong stock markets experienced a decline, with the A-share market showing a cumulative drop of 0.6% for the Shanghai 50 index and a maximum drop of 7.4% for the ChiNext index as of April 25, 2025 [1][8] - The Hong Kong stock market showed significant volatility in April, influenced by overseas risk events and domestic policy expectations, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 4.9% [1][10] Group 2: A-share Insights - The A-share market is expected to experience a rebound due to continuous policy support and inflow of medium to long-term funds, with current valuations near the average since 2010 [2][13] - Three asset categories are recommended for investment: stable assets (high dividend stocks, gold), self-sufficient industrial chains, and domestic consumption [2][15][16] Group 3: Hong Kong Stock Insights - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to continue its upward trend, supported by low valuations of the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index [3][17] - A "barbell" investment strategy is suggested, focusing on technology growth and high dividend stocks, particularly in sectors like telecommunications, utilities, and banking [3][17] Group 4: Stock Recommendations - The A-share stock selection for May 2025 includes: Zhongzi Technology, Hengrui Medicine, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, China Petroleum, CNOOC Development, Zijin Mining, Muyuan Foods, Honglu Steel Structure, and Puyang Refractories [4][23] - The Hong Kong stock selection for May 2025 includes: Alibaba-W, Pop Mart, Tencent Holdings, Xindong Company, NetEase Cloud Music, and Horizon Robotics-W [4][26]

Core Insights - The company has seen a 1.3% increase in new orders in Q1 2025 and a 14.3% increase in steel structure production [1][4] - The welding robots have been scaled up for use, enhancing capacity utilization, product quality, and cost reduction [5] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's net profit decreased by 34.5%, with operating cash flow down by 47.8% [3] - Revenue for 2024 was 21.5 billion, a decline of 8.6%, with quarterly comparisons showing a consistent downward trend [3] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 10.3%, a decrease of 0.80 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 3.59%, down by 1.42 percentage points [3] Order and Production Metrics - New contracts signed in 2024 totaled 28.298 billion, a decrease of 4.8%, with Q1-Q4 figures showing a decline [4] - Steel structure product output was approximately 4.511 million tons in 2024, a slight increase of 0.5%, with Q1 2025 output reaching about 1.049 million tons, up 14.3% [4] Technological Advancements - The company has implemented nearly 2,000 lightweight welding robots and rail-type robot welding stations across its ten production bases [5] - Continuous investment in smart upgrades is expected to further enhance production efficiency and reduce costs [5] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.36 per share for the current year, up from 0.52 per share in the previous year, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 32.0% [5]

证券代码：002541 证券简称：鸿路钢构 编号：T2025-003 投资者关系活 动类别 □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 ☑业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 □现场参观 □电话调研 □其他 参与单位名称 及人员姓名 通过"全景·投资者关系互动平台"（https://ir.p5w.net）参加公司 2024 年度网 上业绩说明会的投资者 调研时间 2025 年 4 月 23 日 地 点 "全景·投资者关系互动平台"（https://ir.p5w.net） 形 式 网络远程 上市公司接待 人员姓名 公司董事长万胜平先生、财务总监张玲女士、董事会秘书吕庆荣女士、独立董事 王琦先生。 投资者关系活动 主要内容介绍 公司于2025年4月23日（星期三）15点至17点在全景网举行2024年度业绩网上说明 会。本次业绩说明会采用网络远程的方式举行，业绩说明会问答环节主要内容如下： 一、Q：领导，您好！我来自四川大决策 请问贵公司是否有布局机器人领域，如果有 请简单介绍一下。 A：谢谢您对公司的关注。自2023年以来，公司自主研发了"弧焊机器人控制系统"， 并已应用于公司集成的轻巧焊接机器人和地轨式机器人焊接 ...