Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant surge on January 12, with over 4,100 stocks closing in the green and a record trading volume of 3.64 trillion yuan, surpassing the previous high on October 8, 2024. The adjustment of export tax rebate policies for batteries has influenced market dynamics, leading to a notable increase in trading activity for the Battery 50 ETF (159796), which closed down 0.69% despite a trading volume nearing 600 million yuan [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Battery 50 ETF (159796) saw most of its constituent stocks decline, with notable drops including Sunshine Power and Xian Dao Intelligent, both down over 3%, while Ningde Times and Guoxuan High-Tech fell over 2% [3]. - The trading volume of the Battery 50 ETF (159796) surged to nearly 600 million yuan, indicating heightened investor interest despite the ETF's decline [1][3]. Group 2: Policy Impact - On January 9, two departments announced adjustments to export tax rebate policies, effective from April 1, 2026, which will reduce the VAT export rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6%, and eliminate it entirely by January 1, 2027 [4][5]. - The previous reduction in export tax rebates for certain photovoltaic and battery products from 13% to 9% in November 2024 had already triggered a rush in exports, and the latest adjustments may lead to a similar surge, benefiting the lithium carbonate sector [5]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Global demand for energy storage is expected to grow steadily, with projections indicating that global energy storage installations will reach 404 GWh by 2026, representing a 38% year-on-year increase [5]. - The battery sector is experiencing a sustained upward trend, driven by the growth of the global electric vehicle market, with domestic battery installations expected to maintain high growth rates through 2026 [5][6]. - Solid-state battery technology is advancing, with potential for significant industry upgrades, as companies that can provide stable supply and mature processes are likely to benefit [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The Battery 50 ETF (159796) is positioned to benefit from its high content in energy storage (18.7%) and solid-state batteries (45%), making it a strong candidate for investors looking to capitalize on these growing segments [7][9]. - The ETF's focus on battery chemicals, which account for 31% of its weight, positions it well to benefit from the recovery of upstream material prices, enhancing the overall industry outlook [9][12].

电力设备与新能源 电池出口退税下调,看好海外产能布局 企业 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 12 日│中国内地 动态点评 宣布阶梯式下调电池出口退税，利好 26 年抢出口及格局优化 证券研究报告 26 年 1 月 9 日，中国财政部、税务总局发布《关于调整光伏等产品出口退 税政策的公告》，宣布自 26 年 4 月 1 日起至 26 年 12 月 31 日，将电池产 品的增值税出口退税率由 9%下调至 6%，2027 年 1 月 1 日起，取消电池产 品增值税出口退税。我们认为出口退税率的下调短期将推动电池 26 年抢出 口，加剧锂矿、六氟磷酸锂等环节的供需紧张，长期将推动国内落后产能出 清，优化电池行业格局，利好海外产能布局企业，推荐宁德时代、亿纬锂能、 天赐材料、新宙邦、尚太科技、富临精工。 政策意图或为抑制出海低价竞争，长期有望优化电池格局 根据财政部及国家税务总局的文件，其电池的出口退税率从 9%逐步下调至 6%、0%。根据电池联盟，25 年 1-11 月国内电池出口合计 260.3GWh，占 总销量的 18.4%。假设出口电池 FOB 离岸均价为 0.5 元/Wh，则退税率从 9%下调至 6%/0%将 ...

会议同时审议通过《关于使用部分闲置募集资金进行现金管理的议案》，同意在不影响募投项目正常进 行的前提下，使用不超过6亿元的闲置募集资金购买安全性高、流动性好、保本型的理财产品或存款类 产品，资金可滚动使用，期限不超过12个月。 因控股股东徐金富先生提议，董事会决定将《关于增加商品期货套期保值业务额度的议案》作为临时提 案提交2026年第一次临时股东会审议，会议将于2026年1月21日以现场与网络投票相结合方式召开。 截至2026年1月9日收盘，天赐材料(002709)报收于44.44元，上涨0.09%，换手率4.98%，成交量74.87万 手，成交额33.44亿元。 当日关注点 交易信息汇总 1月9日主力资金净流出5278.92万元；游资资金净流出1237.24万元；散户资金净流入6516.16万元。 公司公告汇总 2026年1月7日，天赐材料召开第六届董事会第四十一次会议，审议通过《关于增加商品期货套期保值业 务额度的议案》，同意将公司及子公司商品期货套期保值业务的最高保证金额度由不超过1.5亿元提高 至不超过3亿元，任一交易日持有的最高合约价值由不超过15亿元提高至不超过30亿元，额度在有效期 内可循环使 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Tianqi Materials, has announced a significant reduction in its planned investment for a lithium battery electrolyte project, cutting the production capacity from 300,000 tons to 250,000 tons and canceling a 100,000-ton battery recycling project, resulting in a total investment decrease from 1.332 billion yuan to no more than 600 million yuan [2][4]. Group 1: Project Changes - The company decided to adjust the original plan for the "300,000 tons lithium battery electrolyte expansion and 100,000 tons iron lithium battery recycling project" due to market changes and site conditions [2][4]. - The total investment for the revised project is capped at 600 million yuan, representing a 55% reduction from the original plan [4]. - The cancellation of the battery recycling project was primarily due to the unsuitability of the originally planned construction site, not a withdrawal from the recycling sector [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The adjusted 250,000 tons electrolyte project is expected to generate an average annual revenue of 3.674 billion yuan and an average annual net profit of 180 million yuan once fully operational [4]. - The company has reported a recovery in performance, with a projected net profit for 2025 expected to be between 1.1 billion and 1.6 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 127.31% to 230.63% [6]. - The growth in profit is attributed to increased demand in the new energy vehicle and energy storage markets, along with improved profitability from core raw material production and cost control [6]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning - The company has established a preliminary full industry chain layout from upstream raw materials to electrolyte and waste battery recycling, enhancing its ability to withstand raw material price fluctuations [5]. - Recent agreements with Guoxuan High-Tech and Zhongchuang Xinhang for long-term supply of electrolytes, totaling over 1.5 million tons over the next three years, indicate a strong market position [6]. - Analysts from Western Securities and Kaiyuan Securities have issued "buy" ratings for the company, citing the price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate and the company's strategic positioning in solid-state battery materials as key factors [6].

Core Viewpoint - The surge of electrolyte companies going public in Hong Kong is driven by industry dynamics and capital opportunities, reshaping the competitive landscape of lithium battery exports [1] Group 1: IPO Trends and Market Dynamics - Leading electrolyte additive company Huasheng Lithium announced plans for an H-share issuance and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant event in the industry [2] - Since the second half of 2025, major players like Tianci Materials, Xinzhou Bang, and Shida Shenghua have also disclosed plans for IPOs in Hong Kong, indicating a collective push [2] - The easing of IPO regulations and the need for financing in the context of industry transformation have created a favorable environment for these listings [3] Group 2: Industry Growth and Financial Performance - The global electrolyte market is expected to experience explosive growth in 2025, with shipments projected to exceed 2.3 million tons, and Chinese companies holding over 90% market share [3] - Tianci Materials forecasts a net profit of 1.1 to 1.6 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 127.31% to 230.63% [3] - The average price of lithium iron phosphate electrolytes surged from 19,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 35,000 yuan per ton, indicating a structural reversal in the industry [3] Group 3: Global Expansion and Financing Needs - Major battery companies like CATL and Guoxuan High-Tech are accelerating overseas expansion, creating a pressing need for financing among electrolyte material companies [4] - The construction of overseas bases in countries like Hungary and Morocco requires substantial long-term funding, making IPOs in Hong Kong a necessary option [4] Group 4: Differentiated Strategies Among Companies - Tianci Materials aims to use 80% of its IPO proceeds to support global business development, particularly in establishing a lithium-ion battery material integration base in Morocco [7] - Shida Shenghua plans to focus on collaborative projects across the entire supply chain, while Xinzhou Bang seeks to enhance its international brand influence through the IPO [7] - Huasheng Lithium's IPO strategy is centered on niche market breakthroughs, with funds directed towards expanding production capacity and R&D for additive materials [7] Group 5: Impact on Competitive Landscape - The IPO wave is expected to significantly impact the lithium battery supply chain, driving demand for upstream materials and enhancing the global competitiveness of Chinese electrolyte companies [8] - The financing from IPOs will likely widen the gap between leading companies and smaller firms, as top players accelerate technological development and capacity expansion [8] - This trend marks a shift from "product export" to "capacity and technology export," fostering global collaboration within the lithium battery industry [8] Group 6: Future Outlook - The electrolyte industry is poised for high-quality development, supported by ongoing investments in technology and the establishment of overseas production capacities [9] - The Hong Kong capital market will provide continuous funding support, enhancing corporate governance and international operational capabilities [9]

锂电池产业链 超配（维持） 锂电池产业链双周报(2025/12/26-2026/01/08) 行 业 1 月锂电产业链预排产环比有所下降 2026 年 1 月 9 日 投资要点： 分析师：黄秀瑜 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340512090001 行情回顾：截至2026年1月8日，锂电池指数近两周下跌0.85%，跑输沪深 300指数2.90个百分点；锂电池指数本月至今累计上涨0.97%，跑输沪深 300指数1.36个百分点；锂电池指数年初至今上涨0.97%，跑输沪深300指 数1.36个百分点。 周 报 电话：0769-22119455 邮箱：hxy3@dgzq.com.cn 锂电池产业链近两周价格变动： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 资料来源：iFinD，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 周观点：乘联分会秘书长崔东树发文称，预计2026年Q1新能源车同比有 望微增5%，环比降36%（前10年的平均降幅）。动力电池需求进入传统淡 季，1月锂电产业链预排产整体环比有所下降，基本面或将对材料价格支 撑 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Battery and Battery Components** industry in **China**. - The report discusses the performance and outlook of two companies: **Tinci** and **Shenzhen Senior**. Key Points on Tinci - **Downgrade**: Tinci's stock rating has been downgraded from **Overweight** to **Equal-weight** due to high expectations already priced in and unattractive valuations [1][2] - **Earnings Performance**: Tinci has realized a **LiPF6 price** of over **Rmb100,000/t** and an **electrolyte unit net profit** of **Rmb4,000/t** in **4Q25**. This indicates a payback period of less than a year, suggesting that further upside may not be sustainable [3][9] - **Valuation Adjustment**: The stock is now valued using a **20x 2026e P/E** multiple, leading to a new price target of **Rmb49**. The previous valuation was based on long-term profit estimates rather than actual profit [3][10] - **Market Position**: Tinci is positioned to benefit from a demand boom due to a favorable competitive landscape, but the sustainability of high prices is questioned as the top three LiPF6 producers have significant capacities ready to start [9][10] - **Earnings Forecasts**: The earnings forecasts for **2025/26/27** have been raised, reflecting the higher LiPF6 price estimates [10] Key Points on Shenzhen Senior - **Downgrade**: Shenzhen Senior's stock rating has also been downgraded from **Overweight** to **Equal-weight** as its sales volume guidance for **2026** is below industry averages [1][4] - **Sales Volume Guidance**: The company expects a **30% YoY sales volume growth** in **2026**, which is lower than the **35-40%** expected by peers. This is attributed to a higher overseas customer mix and a potential shift from dry to wet separators by some battery producers [4][35] - **Earnings Forecasts**: The earnings forecasts for **2025/26/27** remain unchanged, based on a reasonable long-term **ROIC** of **15%** for separator makers, with a maintained price target of **Rmb16** [4][36] Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The ongoing price negotiations between battery makers and battery material makers are highlighted, indicating a competitive environment [2] - **Capacity Concerns**: The report notes that Tinci and its competitors have ready-to-start capacities that could significantly impact market prices and profitability [3][9] - **Long-term Outlook**: Both companies are expected to face challenges in sustaining high profit levels due to market saturation and competitive pressures [3][4][9] Conclusion - The downgrades for both Tinci and Shenzhen Senior reflect a cautious outlook on their stock valuations amid high expectations and competitive market dynamics. The focus on earnings performance and market positioning will be critical for future assessments in the battery components industry.

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley downgraded the ratings of Tianqi Lithium and Xingyuan Material from "overweight" to "market weight" due to current valuations being fully priced in for profit recovery expectations from the industry reversal [1][2] - For Tianqi Lithium, the target price was raised to 49 yuan, with the current stock price at 44 yuan per share. The projected average price for lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) in Q4 2025 is over 100,000 yuan/ton, and the net profit per ton of electrolyte is expected to reach 4,000 yuan, indicating a payback period of less than one year [1][2] - Xingyuan Material's target price remains at 16 yuan, but the stock is considered "at target" due to its sales growth guidance of approximately 30%, which lags behind the industry average expected growth of 35%-40% for 2026 [1][3] Group 2 - The report indicates a shift in valuation methodology from a growth-oriented P/B approach to a cycle-oriented P/E approach, reflecting concerns over potential supply expansion and competition due to short payback periods [4][5] - The report highlights that the top three LiPF6 producers in China, including Tianqi, have significant production capacity that can be released, with an expected addition of 80,000 tons of capacity by the second half of 2026, representing about 20% of total industry capacity [2][5] - The report emphasizes that while high profits are being realized, the industry may be at a cyclical peak, with concerns that any demand weakness or capacity expansion could lead to a return to mid-cycle pricing levels [5][7]

Group 1 - The energy sector is experiencing a rise, with the China Securities New Energy Index increasing by 1.30% as of January 9, 2026, and key stocks such as Mingyang Smart Energy, Goldwind Technology, and Xiamen Tungsten rising by 10.03%, 9.99%, and 9.86% respectively [1] - The globalization and acceleration of intelligence in the new energy vehicle industry is expected to lead to a total export volume of 3.03 million units in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 34% and an increase in penetration rate to 45% [1] - AI technology is reshaping the in-car experience, becoming a key differentiator in the market, while advancements in smart driving technology and high-performance chips are accelerating the deployment of new architectures [1] - The demand for upgrading and replacing vehicles is driving consumption upgrades, with high-end vehicle markets outperforming economy models, and domestic brands showing significant potential for market share growth [1] - Despite intensified competition leading to profit pressure, the increase in exports, economies of scale, and local production capacity are expected to enhance the overseas profitability of automotive companies [1] Group 2 - The construction of a national unified electricity market is accelerating, with expected grid investments during the 14th Five-Year Plan period to exceed 4 trillion yuan, a significant increase from 2.8 trillion yuan during the 13th Five-Year Plan [2] - The main grid construction will support the interconnection of the national grid, which is a crucial foundation for building a unified national electricity market and will remain a key focus area [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities New Energy Index include CATL, Sungrow Power, TBEA, LONGi Green Energy, Huayou Cobalt, EVE Energy, China National Nuclear Power, Ganfeng Lithium, Tianci Materials, and Three Gorges Energy, collectively accounting for 43.23% of the index [2]

电解液龙头企业天赐材料1月1日披露，公司预计2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润为11.00亿元至16.00亿元，同比增长 127.31%至230.63%。对于业绩增长的主要原因，公司方面表示，新能源车市场需求持续增长以及储能市场需求快速增长，公司 锂离子电池材料销量同比大幅增长。同时，因公司核心原材料的产能爬坡与生产环节的成本管控，整体盈利能力提升。 本报记者 丁蓉 多家A股上市公司披露2025年业绩预告，晒出亮眼"成绩单"。截至1月8日记者发稿，深圳市中科蓝讯科技股份有限公司 （以下简称"中科蓝讯"）、惠而浦（中国）股份有限公司（以下简称"惠而浦"）、广州天赐高新材料股份有限公司（以下简 称"天赐材料"）、珠海光库科技股份有限公司（以下简称"光库科技"）、传化智联股份有限公司、北京康辰药业股份有限公 司、吉林泉阳泉股份有限公司、昆明川金诺化工股份有限公司、利尔化学股份有限公司等A股上市公司预计去年净利润同比增 长超1倍。 具体来看，1月8日，中科蓝讯发布公告称，预计2025年实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润14.00亿元至14.30亿元，同比增 长366.51%至376.51%。 1月6日，家电企业惠而浦披 ...