凯莱英（002821.SZ）2024 年年报点评 盈利能力稳步提升，新签订单持续向上 2025 年 04 月 01 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 3 月 29 日，凯莱英发布 2024 年年报业绩。2024 年公司实 现营业收入 58.05 亿元，同比下降 25.82%，剔除上年同期大订单影响后营业收 入同比增长 7.40%；归母净利润 9.48 亿元，同比下降 58.17%；扣非净利润 8.50 亿元，同比下降 59.63%。单季度看，公司 Q4 实现收入 16.64 亿元，同比上升 15.41%；归母净利润 2.39 亿元，同比上升 306.51%；扣非净利润 1.86 亿元， 同比上升 171.45%。 ➢ 盈利能力同比改善明显，环比略有波动。单季度来看，公司 2024 年 Q4 毛 利率 39.26%，同比+1.23pcts，环比-7.06pcts，净利率 14.34%，同比 +10.27pcts，环比-0.30pcts，主要系费用率得到进一步优化。从费用端来看， 研发费用率 7.83%，同比-5.67pcts，环比-2.94pcts，另外销售费用率 4.58%， 同比+0.59pcts，环比+0.09 ...

业绩符合市场预期，化学大分子业务将为25 年贡献业绩弹性 事件概述 公司发布2024 年报：24 年实现营业收入58.05 亿元，同比下降25.82%、实现归母净利润9.49 亿元，同 比下降58.17%、实现扣非净利润8.50 亿元，同比下降59.63%。 分析判断: 公司作为国内领先的小分子CDMO 供应商，展望未来持续深耕小分子"中间体+API+制剂"一体化服务能 力，另外在合成大分子和生物大分子领域持续强化布局，为公司的中长期业绩增长保驾护航。考虑到国 内外投融资环境持续低迷等因素，调整前期盈利预测， 即24-26 年营业收入从69.28/82.13/NA 亿元调整 为66.48/76.15/88.09 亿元， EPS 从3.44/4.32/NA 元调整为3.20/3.63/4.19 元，对应2025 年03 月28 日79.66 元/股收盘价，PE 分别为25/22/19 倍，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 核心技术骨干及管理层流失风险、竞争加剧的风险、核心技术人员流失风险、汇率波动风险。 ADC 业务处于战略培育期，将为未来业绩增长奠定基础。公司生物大分子CDMO 业务24 年收入同比增 长13.9 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][8] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.805 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decline of 25.82%. However, excluding the impact of large orders from the previous year, revenue grew by 7.40%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 949 million yuan, down 58.17% year-on-year. In Q4 alone, revenue reached 1.664 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.41% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.35% [5][8] - The core business of small molecule CDMO showed steady growth, with revenue of 4.571 billion yuan, and a year-on-year growth of 8.85% when excluding large orders. The gross margin for this segment was 47.95% [8] - The company has seen a rapid recovery in its order backlog, with new orders increasing by approximately 20% year-on-year, resulting in a total backlog of 1.052 billion USD, which is over 20% higher than the same period last year [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The total revenue forecast for the company is as follows: - 2023: 7.825 billion yuan - 2024: 5.805 billion yuan - 2025E: 6.468 billion yuan - 2026E: 7.407 billion yuan - 2027E: 8.481 billion yuan - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2023: 2.269 billion yuan - 2024: 949 million yuan - 2025E: 1.071 billion yuan - 2026E: 1.234 billion yuan - 2027E: 1.424 billion yuan [7][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 91.80 CNY for the next six months [6][10]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.805 billion CNY for 2024, a decrease of 25.82% year-on-year, but excluding large orders, revenue grew by 7.4% [2][3]. - The company has a robust order backlog, with a total of 10.52 billion USD in hand orders for 2024, representing a growth of over 20% year-on-year, indicating potential operational improvement in 2025 [3][10]. - The company is expanding its global supply network, having taken over the Sandwich Site in the UK, which is now operational and securing various orders across multiple fields [4][10]. Revenue and Profit Summary - In 2024, the small molecule business generated revenue of 4.571 billion CNY, with an 8.85% increase when excluding large orders, while emerging businesses achieved 1.226 billion CNY, a 2.25% increase [2][3]. - The net profit for 2024 was 949 million CNY, down 58.17% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of COVID-19 large orders, capacity ramp-up, and investments in new technology [2][3]. Future Projections - The company expects net profits of 1.104 billion CNY, 1.287 billion CNY, and 1.481 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.3%, 16.6%, and 15.1% [10][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 3.06 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30 times, supporting the target price of 91.80 CNY [10][11]. Operational Developments - The company is focusing on expanding its small molecule CDMO services, with a rich project pipeline including 383 preclinical and early clinical projects, 73 clinical III projects, and 48 commercial projects in 2024 [3][10]. - The chemical macromolecule CDMO business is also expected to see significant growth, with over 10 projects in the validation phase anticipated for 2025 [3][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Strong Buy" with an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by over 20% within the next six months [12]. Core Views - The company has shown resilient growth by excluding large orders, with profitability returning to a higher level. The revenue for 2024 was reported at 5.805 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 25.82%, while the net profit was 949 million yuan, down 58.17% year-over-year. The company has proposed a dividend of 11 yuan per 10 shares [3][4]. - The company has a strong order backlog, with a total order amount of 1.052 billion USD, representing a year-over-year growth of over 20%, which is expected to significantly cover revenue for 2025 [6][8]. - The company is expanding its global footprint to mitigate geopolitical risks, with the Sandwich base in the UK operational since August 2024, and a Boston R&D center in progress. This strategy aims to attract clients who prefer not to outsource offshore while maintaining competitive cost levels [8][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.805 billion yuan, with a year-over-year decline of 25.82%. The net profit was 949 million yuan, down 58.17% year-over-year. The company expects a revenue increase to 6.7 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 15.4% [3][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 42.4%, with expectations for a slight recovery to 43.7% in 2025 [10]. Business Segments - The small molecule chemistry segment generated revenue of 4.571 billion yuan in 2024, with an 8.85% year-over-year growth when excluding large orders. The segment's gross margin was 47.95% [6][8]. - Emerging businesses achieved revenue of 1.226 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-over-year growth of 2.25%. The gross margin for this segment was 21.67% [8]. Future Projections - The company forecasts a net profit of 1.126 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 18.7%. The projected net profit for 2026 and 2027 is 1.378 billion yuan and 1.740 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a continued upward trend [10][11]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong cash flow from operating activities, projected at 1.980 billion yuan for 2025 [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock to outperform the market by over 20% within the next six months [11]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.805 billion yuan in 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 25.82%, and a net profit of 949 million yuan, down 58.17% year-over-year. The company plans to distribute a dividend of 11 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) [3]. - The company’s core small molecule chemistry business generated revenue of 4.571 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-over-year growth of 8.85% when excluding large orders. The gross margin for this segment was 47.95% [6]. - The company has signed new orders that are expected to grow by approximately 20% year-over-year, with a total order backlog of 1.052 billion USD, which is expected to significantly cover revenue for 2025 [6][7]. - The company is expanding its global footprint with the opening of the Sandwich base in the UK, which is expected to enhance its ability to meet overseas customer needs and mitigate geopolitical risks [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 5.805 billion yuan, with a net profit of 949 million yuan. The revenue is projected to increase to 6.700 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit forecast of 1.126 billion yuan [5][8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 42.4% in 2024 to 43.7% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to rise from 16.3% to 16.8% [9]. Business Segments - The small molecule chemistry segment is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a projected revenue increase to 6.700 billion yuan in 2025 [5][6]. - Emerging businesses, particularly in the chemical macromolecule sector, are anticipated to accelerate, with 13 new projects expected by 2025 [7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is strategically positioning itself to capture opportunities in the peptide and small nucleic acid markets, enhancing its competitive edge [7]. - The establishment of overseas bases is aimed at attracting clients who prefer not to outsource offshore, thereby maintaining a cost advantage over local competitors [7].

Key Points Summary of Kailaiying's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Kailaiying - **Fiscal Year**: 2024 - **Revenue**: 5.805 billion CNY, a decrease of 25.8% year-on-year, but a 7.4% increase when excluding COVID-related orders [3][4] Financial Performance - **Net Profit**: 149 million CNY, down 58% year-on-year; Q4 net profit was 239 million CNY, up 13% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - **Gross Margin**: 42.4%, a decrease of 8.8 percentage points from 2023, but only a slight decline when excluding COVID orders [4] - **Small Molecule Business Revenue**: 4.57 billion CNY, with a 9% year-on-year increase when excluding COVID orders; gross margin at 47.9% [5][10] - **Emerging Business Growth**: Slowed due to domestic market impacts, but showed strong recovery in Q4 [5][8] Global Operations - **International Orders**: Backlog of 1.052 billion USD, over 20% year-on-year growth; U.S. customer revenue increased by 18%, and European customer revenue doubled [6][8] - **Net Profit Margin Decline**: Due to multiple factors including excess COVID order capacity, increased competition, and higher R&D investments [7][9] Business Segments - **Small Molecule Business**: Strong resilience with a 9% increase in orders; delivered 48 commercial projects, with a 4% revenue increase to 2.8 billion CNY [10] - **Large Molecule Business**: Revenue from alpha molecule modules grew by 13% year-on-year, with Q4 growth exceeding 200%; expected to triple revenue by 2025 [11][12] - **Peptide Capacity**: Solid-phase synthesis capacity reached 21,000 liters by the end of 2024, expected to reach 30,000 liters by mid-2025 [12] Future Outlook - **Management Confidence**: Plans to solidify small molecule advantages and expand advanced manufacturing technologies; multiple late-stage projects expected to enter delivery phases [8][22] - **Capital Expenditure**: 1.13 billion CNY in 2024, accounting for 19.5% of revenue, with a focus on emerging business and R&D platform construction [21] - **Market Expansion**: Plans to enhance market development in peptide and oligonucleotide therapies, and increase efforts in the European and U.S. markets [23][30] ESG and Sustainability - **ESG Achievements**: Significant improvements in ESG ratings, with a gold certification and an A rating in CDP climate change assessment [20] Strategic Initiatives - **Global Strategy**: Continued focus on global expansion, particularly in Europe and the U.S.; exploring commercial capacity acquisitions [19][33] - **R&D Investment**: Maintained high R&D spending at around 10% of revenue in 2024, with a focus on areas that can quickly drive revenue [18] Conclusion - **Long-term Growth**: The company is optimistic about future growth driven by strong order backlogs in emerging business segments and ongoing capacity expansions [29][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company, Kailaiying, reported a revenue of 5.805 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 25.82%. However, excluding the impact of large orders, revenue grew by 7.40% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 42% [3]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to the high base from large orders delivered in 2023. The revenue from large pharmaceutical companies was 2.691 billion yuan, growing by 4.78% year-on-year after excluding large orders, while revenue from small and medium pharmaceutical companies was 3.114 billion yuan, growing by 9.78% [3]. - The company's small molecule CDMO business achieved a revenue of 4.571 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.85% after excluding large orders, and a gross margin of 47.95% [3]. - Emerging businesses generated a revenue of 1.226 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.25% and a gross margin of 21.67%, indicating room for improvement [3]. - The company has a total order backlog of 1.052 billion USD, with a year-on-year growth of over 20%, and significant growth in orders from European and American markets [3]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 949 million yuan, a decrease of 58.17% year-on-year. The forecast for 2025 estimates a net profit of 1.141 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 20.23% [4][6]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 6.572 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 13.21% [4][6]. - The gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 43.03% in 2025 and 44.51% by 2027 [4][6]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 3.16 yuan in 2025, increasing to 4.46 yuan by 2027 [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the benchmark index [16]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 performance showed significant recovery, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit, indicating that the impact of large order declines has been largely absorbed [2][3]. - The small molecule CDMO business remains a stable growth driver, with substantial commercial potential and a robust project pipeline expected to enhance profitability [4][5]. - Emerging businesses, particularly in chemical and biological macromolecules, are showing promising growth, with expectations for improved profitability as capacity utilization increases [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 5.805 billion, a year-on-year decline of 25.82%, but a 7.40% increase when excluding the impact of large orders from the previous year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 949 million, down 58.17% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 850 million, a decline of 59.63% [1]. - Q4 revenue reached 16.64 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.41% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.35%, with net profit soaring by 306.48% year-on-year [2]. Business Segmentation - The small molecule CDMO business generated 4.571 billion in revenue, with an 8.55% increase when excluding large orders. Clinical stage CDMO solutions contributed 1.767 billion, up 17.23% year-on-year [2][3]. - Emerging businesses achieved 1.226 billion in revenue, reflecting a 2.25% year-on-year growth [2]. Regional Performance - Revenue from the US market reached 3.371 billion, with an 18.41% increase when excluding large orders. Domestic market revenue was 1.520 billion, up 2.63%, while European market revenue surged by 101.33% to 735 million [3]. Customer Segmentation - Revenue from large pharmaceutical companies was 2.691 billion, a 4.78% increase when excluding large orders, while revenue from small and medium-sized pharmaceutical companies was 3.114 billion, up 9.78% [3]. Future Projections - The company anticipates a 20% year-on-year increase in new orders for 2024, with a total order backlog of 1.052 billion USD expected to drive stable growth in 2025 [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 6.621 billion, 7.554 billion, and 8.619 billion respectively, with net profits expected to rise to 1.098 billion, 1.269 billion, and 1.472 billion [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.805 billion RMB and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 948.95 million RMB for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 25.8% and 58.2% respectively. However, excluding the impact of large orders, the revenue for 2024 is expected to grow by 7.4% year-on-year, indicating stable development in its regular business [1][4] - The company has a strong order backlog of 1.052 billion USD, which has increased by over 20% year-on-year, enhancing visibility for future performance [1] - The company is expected to maintain a positive growth trajectory in its core business in 2025, supported by a solid customer base and technological leadership [1] Summary by Sections Small Molecule Business - The revenue for 2024 is projected at 4.571 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9% when excluding large orders. The commercial stage CDMO revenue is expected to be 2.804 billion RMB, growing by 4.2% year-on-year, while clinical stage CDMO revenue is anticipated to reach 1.767 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.2% [2] - The number of delivered projects in this segment reached 504, up 18.3% year-on-year, indicating robust project execution capabilities [2] Emerging Business - The revenue for 2024 is expected to be 1.226 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3%. Notably, overseas revenue has increased by 15.4% year-on-year [3] - Various segments within the emerging business have shown positive progress, including significant growth in the biopharmaceutical sector and a strong order backlog [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.087 billion RMB, 1.260 billion RMB, and 1.466 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjustments reflecting a decrease of 18.5% and 24.1% for 2025 and 2026 compared to previous estimates [4] - The target price is set at 105.49 RMB for A-shares and 77.45 HKD for H-shares, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 35x and 24x for 2025 [4]