Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][2][7]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 shows a revenue of 10.809 billion RMB and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 855 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.49% and 21.95% respectively. The third quarter alone saw revenues of 2.612 billion RMB and a net profit of 253 million RMB, with year-on-year declines of 40.91% and 28.7% [1]. - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to high gold price volatility, which has dampened consumer sentiment towards gold jewelry, leading to decreased replenishment enthusiasm among downstream customers. Despite this, the company has increased its focus on product research and development, resulting in a gross margin improvement of 9.7 percentage points year-on-year in Q3 [1][2]. - The company has seen a slight increase in self-operated and franchise revenue, with e-commerce revenue growing by 5.94% year-on-year to 1.653 billion RMB, while offline self-operated revenue increased by 9.77% to 1.354 billion RMB. However, franchise revenue faced pressure, declining by 19.75% to 7.66 billion RMB [2]. - The company plans to continue expanding its brand matrix and IP products to drive growth, although it has lowered its profit forecast for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 1.097 billion RMB, 1.274 billion RMB, and 1.417 billion RMB respectively, which corresponds to a year-on-year change of -16.6%, +16.1%, and +11.2% [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company are 10.809 billion RMB and 855 million RMB, down 13.49% and 21.95% year-on-year [1]. - Q3 alone shows revenue of 2.612 billion RMB and net profit of 253 million RMB, with declines of 40.91% and 28.7% year-on-year [1]. Market Conditions - The retail sales of gold products are expected to weaken gradually throughout 2024, with Q1 showing a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, while Q2 and Q3 are projected to decline by 4% and 7.7% respectively [1]. - The average closing price of Au9999 on the Shanghai Gold Exchange increased by 16%, 23%, and 24% year-on-year for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively [1]. Product Segmentation - Revenue from plain gold and embedded products in Q1-Q3 2024 is 8.896 billion RMB and 585 million RMB, down 15.04% and 22.46% year-on-year [2]. - The company added a net of 129 stores in Q1-Q3 2024, bringing the total to 5,235 stores, with 4,886 being franchise stores [2]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2024-2026, now expecting net profits of 1.097 billion RMB, 1.274 billion RMB, and 1.417 billion RMB, with corresponding PE ratios of 11, 9.5, and 8.5 [2].

公司报告 | 季报点评 周大生（002867） 证券研究报告 2024 年 11 月 03 日 投资评级 行业 纺织服饰/饰品 6 个月评级 买入（维持评级） 当前价格 11.15 元 目标价格 元 24Q4 及全年净利润降幅争取收窄 公司发布三季报 公司 24Q3 收入 26 亿，同减 41%；归母净利 2.5 亿同减 29%，扣非后归母 净利 2.5 亿同减 27%； 24Q1-3 公司收入 108 亿同减 13.5%，归母净利 8.5 亿同减 22%，扣非后归 母 8.4 亿同减 21%。 24Q1-3 公司毛利率 20.58%同增 2.36pct；净利率 7.89%同减 0.85pct。 24Q3 公司毛利率 27.48%，同增 9.7pct，毛利率提升明显，系①自营渠道受 益于金价上涨，以及率先优化调整产品结构，助力毛利率提升；②加盟渠 道通过收取品牌使用费方式黄金出货量占比提升，以及一口价产品对整体 毛利贡献提升，从而提升毛利率；③电商渠道中高毛利率饰品类占比提升， 对毛利率提升有积极作用。 24Q4 值得期待：24Q4 及全年净利润降幅争取收窄；争取全年门店数净增 200 家以上，并且要开好店、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][10]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant revenue decline of 41% in Q3 2024, with a net profit decrease of 29% year-on-year. The revenue for Q3 was 2.61 billion yuan, down 40.9% compared to the previous year, attributed to fluctuations in consumer demand and high gold prices [1]. - The gross margin improved by 9.7 percentage points to 27.5%, likely due to changes in channel and product mix, with a notable increase in the proportion of brand usage fees [1]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities showed a strong recovery, with a net cash flow of 1.315 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, compared to a negative cash flow of 110 million yuan in the same period of 2023 [5]. Summary by Sections Franchise Business - Franchise revenue decreased by 19.8% to 7.66 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with Q3 revenue dropping 52% to 1.7 billion yuan. The decline was primarily due to weak consumer purchasing intent for gold jewelry amid a challenging economic environment [2]. - The number of franchise stores remained stable at 4,886, with a net increase of 365 stores year-on-year [2]. Self-operated Offline Business - Self-operated offline revenue grew by 9.77% to 1.35 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a slight decline of 3.6% in Q3. The company is focusing on expanding its presence in weaker regions and establishing model stores in key urban areas [3]. Self-operated Online Business - Self-operated online revenue increased by 5.94% to 1.653 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with Q3 growth of 14%. The company is optimizing its product structure and enhancing operational efficiency in e-commerce [4]. Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 10.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21.9% to 850 million yuan [1][10]. - The report forecasts a 15% decline in total revenue for 2024, estimating it at 13.884 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.066 billion yuan, down 19% [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - In Q3 2024, the company faced significant pressure on revenue, with a year-on-year decline of 40.91% in revenue and a 28.7% drop in net profit [2][3] - The overall gross margin improved to 27.48%, up 9.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased to 9.67%, up 1.65 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company continues to expand its store network, with a total of 5,235 stores as of September 2024, an increase of 129 stores since the beginning of the year [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 10.809 billion yuan, down 13.49% year-on-year, and a net profit of 855 million yuan, down 21.95% year-on-year [2] - Q3 2024 revenue was 2.612 billion yuan, with a net profit of 253 million yuan [2] - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 from 1.39 billion, 1.57 billion, and 1.74 billion yuan to 1.14 billion, 1.29 billion, and 1.41 billion yuan respectively [4] Channel Performance - Self-operated and e-commerce channels showed slight growth, with self-operated offline revenue at 1.354 billion yuan, up 9.77% year-on-year, while franchise revenue decreased by 19.75% [3] - E-commerce revenue reached 1.653 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.94% [3] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 11.28 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 12.36 billion yuan [6] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2024 is projected at 10.82 times [1][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 was below expectations, primarily due to high gold prices leading to weak sales and reduced willingness of franchisees to restock. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in end-user sales [2][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 have been revised down to 0.99, 1.14, and 1.30 yuan respectively, with a target price adjusted to 13.86 yuan based on a 14x PE valuation for 2024 [3][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.809 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 855 million yuan, down 21.95% year-on-year [3]. - In Q3 2024 alone, revenue was 2.612 billion yuan, a decline of 40.91% year-on-year, with a net profit of 253 million yuan, down 28.70% year-on-year [3][4]. Market Conditions - The report highlights that high gold prices have led to a cautious consumer sentiment, impacting the sales of gold jewelry and resulting in a significant drop in revenue from franchise operations, which fell by 51.60% in Q3 2024 [4]. - The company is focusing on improving product structure and enhancing profitability at existing stores while waiting for consumer confidence to recover [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a strategy to strengthen its core operations and improve efficiency in its channel layout, aiming for a balance between scale and efficiency [4]. - As of the end of Q3 2024, the total number of stores reached 5,235, with a net increase of 129 stores during the quarter [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported its Q3 2024 results, which met expectations, with a revenue of 10.809 billion yuan for the first three quarters, down 13.49% year-on-year, and a net profit of 855 million yuan, down 21.95% year-on-year [3][4] - The decline in gold sales continues due to both gold prices and consumer sentiment, with Q3 revenue from gold jewelry down 40.91% year-on-year [3] - The company is focusing on product development and optimization to enhance brand strength, with online sales showing growth despite overall market challenges [3] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price as of October 30, 2024: 11.05 yuan - One-year high/low: 20.34/9.97 yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 1.9 - Dividend yield: 8.60% - Circulating A-share market value: 11,932 million yuan [1] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue: 10.809 billion yuan, down 13.49% year-on-year - Q3 2024 revenue: 2.612 billion yuan, down 40.91% year-on-year - Q1-Q3 2024 net profit: 855 million yuan, down 21.95% year-on-year - Q3 2024 net profit: 253 million yuan, down 28.7% year-on-year [3][4] Product and Sales Channels - Revenue from self-operated, e-commerce, and franchise gold products for the first nine months: 12.62 billion, 10.22 billion, and 6.525 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Q3 2024 revenue from self-operated, online, and franchise channels: 3.58 billion, 2.61 billion, and 1.291 billion yuan, respectively [3] Profitability Metrics - Q1-Q3 2024 gross profit: 22.24 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 20.58% - Q3 2024 gross profit: 7.18 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 27.48% [3] - The company expects to see a gradual improvement in profitability as gold prices stabilize [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the traditional consumption peak in Q4 and a steady increase in gold prices, which may reduce consumer hesitation [3] - Revised profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 1.086 billion, 1.218 billion, and 1.347 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11, 10, and 9 [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on its operating performance, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 13.5% and a net profit decline of 21.9% for the first three quarters of 2024. The third quarter alone saw a revenue drop of 40.9% [1][2] - Despite the challenging environment, the company is expanding its channels, which is expected to enhance market share and build momentum for future growth. The report anticipates a recovery in growth elasticity once gold prices stabilize [1][3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, now projecting net profits of 1.08 billion, 1.25 billion, and 1.43 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.99, 1.14, and 1.30 yuan [1][4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 10.81 billion yuan, with a significant decline in the third quarter [1][2] - The embedded and pure gold product segments saw revenue declines of 22.5% and 15.0% respectively [2] - The company's self-operated offline and e-commerce channels showed growth, while the franchise business declined by 19.8% due to high gold price volatility affecting inventory confidence among franchisees [2] Channel Expansion and Product Development - The company opened 474 new stores in the first three quarters of 2024, increasing the total number of stores to 5,235, with a focus on both franchise and self-operated channels [3] - The company is leveraging the "national trend" to enhance its product offerings, including a collaboration with the "National Treasure" brand to launch new gold jewelry products [3] Financial Metrics - The company’s projected revenue for 2024 is 14.396 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 11.6%, followed by a recovery in 2025 and 2026 [4] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 27.5%, an increase of 9.7 percentage points, while the net margin was 9.7%, up by 1.6 percentage points [2][4] - The company’s P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 11.4, 9.9, and 8.7 respectively, indicating a reasonable valuation [1][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-B" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue decline of 13.49% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 10.809 billion yuan, with a net profit of 855 million yuan, down 21.95% year-on-year [1] - The domestic gold jewelry consumption remains sluggish, leading to an expanded revenue decline in Q3 2024, with embedded products and gold products experiencing significant revenue drops [1][4] - Despite the challenges, the company has improved its gross margin significantly in Q3 2024, attributed to a decrease in the revenue share from lower-margin franchise channels and ongoing product structure adjustments [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 20.6%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.315 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 1310.22% year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in cash payments for goods and services [3] - The company’s net profit margin for Q3 2024 improved to 9.7%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, despite a decline in overall sales [1][4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 13.89 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%, with expected EPS of 0.99 yuan [6][4] - The forecast for EPS in 2025 and 2026 is 1.10 yuan and 1.21 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.2 and 9.3 [4][6] Market Position and Strategy - The company continues to invest in product research and development, enhancing its product offerings and marketing efforts to strengthen brand presence despite a challenging market environment [4] - The company opened 129 new offline stores in the first three quarters of 2024, indicating a commitment to expanding its retail footprint [1]

代码：002867 证券简称：周大生 编号：2024-038 周大生珠宝股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 | --- | --- | |--------------------|-----------------------------------------------------| | | | | | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | | □业绩说明会 | | 投资者关系活动类别 | □路演活动 | | | | | | 电话会议 ) | | | 位投资者（排名不分先后）： | | | 兴业证券：代凯燕、张彬鸿、韩亦佳、马睿晴 | | | 中信建投：刘乐文、黄杨璐、张舒怡 | | | 中金公司：杨润渤、宋习缘、庄铭楷 | | | 长江证券：张彦淳、曾维朵 商羊资管：陈恺 | | | 鸿运私募：高波 Jefferies ：裴晶珏 | | | 平安银行：刘颖飞 高盛证券： MiaGu | | | 中阅资本：樊淑娟 博时基金：王佳敏 | | | 鹏山资产：祝培修 合远基金：王旭晖 | | 参与单位名称 | 国泰君安：刘越男、宋小寒 高盛证券：陈凯琦 | | 及人员姓名 | 东方财富：刘嘉仁 利檀投资：焦明远 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company has shown good growth in self-operated business and continues to expand its channels despite a decline in franchise revenue due to insufficient replenishment willingness from franchise clients [4][5]. - The company is focusing on product innovation and channel expansion, with projected revenues of 146.46 billion, 165.46 billion, and 182.62 billion yuan for 2024-2026, reflecting a year-on-year change of -10.1%, +13.0%, and +10.4% respectively [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.889 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.49%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 855 million yuan, down 21.95% [3]. - In Q3 2024, the revenue was 2.612 billion yuan, a significant decline of 40.91% year-on-year, while the net profit was 253 million yuan, an increase of 28.70% [3]. - The self-operated offline and e-commerce businesses experienced growth, with franchise business revenue declining by 19.75% year-on-year to 7.660 billion yuan for the first three quarters [4]. - The gross profit margin improved significantly, with a gross margin of 20.58% for the first three quarters, up 2.36 percentage points year-on-year, and 27.48% in Q3, up 9.70 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Channel Expansion - As of the end of Q3 2024, the company had a total of 5,235 brand terminal stores, with a net increase of 129 stores since the beginning of the year [5]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for the company's financial performance includes a net profit of 1.135 billion yuan in 2024, down 13.7% year-on-year, followed by increases of 16.5% and 12.1% in the subsequent years [6][8].