Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the recovery of consumer demand is ongoing, supported by the expansion of the "old-for-new" policy and the restoration of consumer confidence. The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from upcoming domestic demand expansion policies [4][6] - The report highlights that the liquor industry is at the bottom of its cycle, with a high probability of stable upward movement, making it a suitable time for medium to long-term investment [4] - In the snack segment, companies with channel reforms and overseas market expansion are favored, with recommendations for Ganyuan Food. The beer industry is also expected to improve with the recovery of dining, recommending Qingdao Beer. Additionally, the dairy industry is highlighted for its potential due to fertility policy catalysts and the expected balance in raw milk prices, recommending leading company Yili [4] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The social retail sales data for March 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points compared to January-February [5][9] - The food and oil consumption growth rate remains stable, with significant increases in March for food and beverage categories, indicating a recovery in dining and nightlife consumption [5][6] Quarterly Observations - In Q1 2025, social retail sales increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with improvements in dining revenue, reflecting ongoing consumer demand recovery [6][7] - The food and oil category maintained a high growth rate, while beverage and tobacco categories showed month-on-month improvements, driven by improved consumer confidence [6][7] Industry Analysis - Major liquor companies are adjusting their targets and managing channel pressures, leading to a stable transition in the industry. The performance of leading liquor companies is expected to improve in the second half of the year as the base effect diminishes [7] - The snack segment is anticipated to accelerate in Q2, supported by channel reforms and category expansion, maintaining a favorable industry outlook [7]

本次会议仅面向开源证券的专业投资机构客户或受邀客户仅供在新媒体背景下研究观点的及时交流第三方专家发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议 那我们去看这个卫龙在2000几年的这个时候其实是经历过在国内经历过类似的一些这种问题的那在印尼这个市场出现了食品安全的问题的时候呢反而是非常适合卫龙去当地去抓住这样的一个这种政策机会去做一个当地的产业整合的去把当地的食品安全的这个标准去拔高 做一个这个呃这个叫呃市场的一个这个收割那么另外呃像盐晶的话我们了解到他应该是要在泰国布局这个魔玉的一个产品以及在印尼布局这个烘焙的这个产品那这也是一个有海外的一个这样子的初步的规划那么甘元的话就呃这个有更多的一个这个他是一个出海东南亚出海的一个先驱者了 未经开源证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人严禁录音、转发及相关解读涉嫌违反上述情的我们将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持谢谢 各位尊敬的投资者大家晚上好我是开源证券的分析师陈中山那么今天的话还是给各位持续更新一下我们一直在推荐的这个核心的标的甘源食品这个以及它后续的一个这个投资的一个机会首先的话我们可以看到在上一周的这个表现里甘源食品以及还有几个这个小零食它 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the white wine sector as it is expected to clear and stabilize, with gradual improvements in the mass market [1]. Core Insights - The white wine sector is currently in a clearing and bottoming phase, with expectations for marginal improvement in the second half of the year. The industry has seen risks transition from off-balance sheet channels to on-balance sheet for most listed companies, leading to a slight slowdown in payment and delivery progress in Q1. However, leading companies have largely completed their initial targets for the year [4][9]. - In the mass market, beer shows signs of marginal improvement, with standout performance in the snack category, particularly for konjac products. The dairy sector is expected to rebound in Q2 after a period of adjustment [19][25]. Summary by Sections White Wine Sector - The white wine sector is in a clearing and bottoming phase, with expectations for improvement in the second half of the year. Q1 saw a slowdown in payment and delivery, but leading companies have met their initial targets [4][9]. - High-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to see revenue and profit growth of approximately 9% and 10%, and 4% and 3% respectively in Q1 [10][12]. - The mid-range segment is experiencing varied performance, with brands like Fenjiu and Gujing showing growth, while others like Yanghe are facing challenges [10][12]. Mass Market - The beer sector is showing signs of recovery, with leading brands like Qingdao and Yanjing achieving revenue growth of 4% and 6% respectively in Q1 [26][29]. - The snack segment, particularly konjac products, is performing well, with brands like Salted and Wei Long seeing significant growth [19][25]. - The dairy sector is expected to improve as inventory levels stabilize, with companies like Yili and Mengniu showing resilience [25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests bottom-fishing in the white wine sector, with a focus on brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu, while also recommending attention to the mass market for potential turning points in beer and dairy [5][19].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the focus on domestic demand due to tariff events, with food and beverage companies primarily targeting the domestic market, leading to better stock performance. It outlines four main investment themes centered on domestic circulation, highlighting short-term catalysts for stock prices, medium to long-term growth prospects, and high dividend yield assets [3][4][19] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the food and beverage sector is 18005.21, with a 52-week high of 20128.95 and a low of 14118.56 [1] Investment Highlights - Short-term catalysts include the gradual digestion of pressure from snack quarterly reports and the arrival of buying opportunities, with beer entering its peak season and cost improvements continuing. Companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Chengde Lulux are highlighted for their strong performance and attractive valuations [3] - Medium to long-term prospects are positive for companies like Angel Yeast, which is expected to benefit from strong overseas demand and cost improvements, and dairy companies like Yili and New Dairy, which are anticipated to recover profitability due to improved milk prices and demand from birth subsidy policies [3] - High dividend yield assets include brands like Master Kong (5.73%), Uni-President (5.56%), and Chengde Lulux (4.92%) [3] Weekly Performance Review - The food and beverage sector performed well, with the industry index showing a weekly increase of +0.20%, ranking 4th among 30 sectors, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.07%. The current dynamic PE ratio is 22.15, which is considered low historically [7][32] Company-Specific Forecasts - Guizhou Moutai is expected to see a revenue growth of 7% and a net profit growth of 8% in Q1 2025, with a focus on maintaining price stability [20] - Yili's revenue is projected to remain flat with a significant drop in net profit due to previous asset transfers, while New Dairy is expected to see a profit increase of 18-20% [22][30] - Dongpeng Beverage is forecasted to achieve a revenue growth of 30% and a net profit growth of 36% in Q1 2025, driven by strong demand for its products [23][30] Market Trends - The report notes a trend towards rational growth in the liquor sector, with major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye maintaining competitive valuations and dividend yields, indicating resilience and risk management capabilities [19][30]

五粮液：五粮液计划6个月内增持5-10亿元。集团公司计划自公告之日起6个月内通过深圳证券交易所交 易系统增持公司股票，拟增持金额不低于5亿元，不超过10亿元。截至公告日，五粮液集团公司持有公 司股份7.95亿股，占公司总股本的20.49%。在本次公告前的12个月内，五粮液集团公司累计增持公司股 份340.67万股，占公司总股本的0.09%，增持金额为人民币5亿元。 投资建议 招商证券发布研报称，本周受贸易摩擦影响板块震荡。从Q1情况来看，高端白酒需求相对稳定，次高 端酒企表现分化，整体边际改善。食品板块需求企稳，调味品、乳制品、啤酒等板块轻装上阵全年业绩 改善确定性更高，而零食、饮料赛道仍然延续高景气。当前茅台、五粮液（000858）纷纷出台回购方 案，龙头底线价值清晰，白酒位置进可攻退可守，食品把握趋势向上及高景气赛道。内需有望发力背景 下，该行重申板块配置价值。 招商证券主要观点如下： 核心公司跟踪：重啤维持高位分红，中炬全年稳健收官 重庆啤酒（600132）：分红维持高位，结构表现依旧承压。公司24年高档酒结构表现仍然承压，带动吨 价同比下滑，税收政策及诉讼费用影响盈利，收入/归母净利润同比-1.2%/ ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The performance of the food and beverage index showed a 0.4% increase from March 24 to March 28, ranking third among primary sub-industries, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.4 percentage points. The leading sub-industries included meat products (+2.9%), dairy products (+2.1%), and beer (+2.0%) [4][11][12] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw significant performance differentiation among companies, with several reporting improved earnings. For instance, Shuanghui Development experienced comprehensive profit improvement, while Tianwei Foods exceeded previous profit forecasts due to strong demand and reduced raw material costs [4][11] - The outlook for the first quarter of 2025 suggests that the industry is at a bottoming phase, with expectations of gradual performance recovery in subsequent quarters. It is recommended to increase allocations in the liquor, beer, and snack sectors [4][11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage index outperformed the market with a 0.4% increase, ranking third among industries. Key performers included Miaokelando, Guangming Meat, and Jiahe Foods, while Maikui'er, Lianhua Holdings, and Xiwang Foods faced declines [12][13] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased. For example, the price of fresh milk was 3.1 yuan/kg, down 12.5% year-on-year, while pork prices increased by 2.3% year-on-year to 20.9 yuan/kg [18][21] - The price of imported barley fell by 10.4% year-on-year, which may alleviate cost pressures for beer companies [27][28] Company Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, Ganyuan Foods, and Ximai Foods, with each showing strong growth potential and strategic advantages in their respective markets [5][49]

证券代码：002991 证券简称：甘源食品 公告编号：2025-001 甘源食品股份有限公司 关于持股 5%以上股东减持计划 实施期限届满暨实施结果的公告 股东名称 减持 方式 减持期间 减持均价 （元/股） 减持股数 (万股) 减持股数占公 司剔除回购股 份后总股本比 例（%） 严海雁 集中竞价 2024 年 12 月 2 日 -2025 年 2 月 28 日 90.91 33.09 0.36 合计 -- -- -- 33.09 0.36 （一）股东减持股份情况 股东名称 股份性质 本次减持前持有股份 本次减持后持有股份 股数(股) 占剔除回购 股份后总股 本比例(%) 股数(股) 占剔除回购 股份后总股 本比例(%) 严海雁 合计持有股 份 5,613,420 6.13 5,282,520 5.77 其中： 无限售条件 1,403,355 1.53 1,320,630 1.44 股份 有限售条件 股份 4,210,065 4.60 3,961,890 4.32 （二）股东减持前后持股情况 二、其他相关说明 公司持股 5%以上股东严海雁先生保证向本公司提供的信息内容真 实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Ganyuan Foods (002991.SZ) [2][7]. Core Insights - Ganyuan Foods has a strong focus on flavor innovation and has been deeply engaged in the bean snack market for 18 years, with a diverse product range including seeds, nuts, and puffed snacks. The company has shown steady growth in revenue and profit over the past five years, with a revenue CAGR of 15.20% and a profit CAGR of 22.35% [4][39]. - The snack food market in China is projected to grow from 11,654 billion yuan in 2022 to 12,378 billion yuan by 2027, with a CAGR of 1.21%. The nut and fried snack segment is expected to see accelerated growth, with a market size projected to reach 2,220 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 8.0% from 2021 to 2026 [5][44]. - The company has a robust R&D capability, with 140 patents, allowing it to continuously innovate and meet consumer demands. The restructuring into eight business units has improved operational efficiency and market responsiveness [6][56]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Ganyuan Foods was established in 2006 in Pingxiang, Jiangxi Province, focusing on bean snacks and has expanded its product matrix over the years [22][24]. - The founder, Yan Binsheng, holds 56.24% of the shares, indicating a concentrated ownership structure [24]. Industry Analysis - The snack food market is vast, with significant growth potential in the nut and fried snack sector. The competitive landscape is fragmented, with many players and room for consolidation [44][48]. - The company is well-positioned to capture market share due to its R&D and channel advantages [49]. Future Development - Ganyuan Foods is committed to continuous product innovation and has successfully launched several new products, enhancing its market competitiveness [53][54]. - The company is expanding its distribution channels, including partnerships with mass retailers and high-end membership stores, which are expected to drive growth [56][62]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for Ganyuan Foods are optimistic, with expected revenues of 22.63 billion yuan in 2024, growing to 32.36 billion yuan by 2026, alongside a corresponding increase in net profit [7][39].

证券代码：002991 证券简称：甘源食品 公告编号：2024-065 甘源食品股份有限公司 关于董事会、监事会完成换届选举 并聘任高级管理人员、证券事务代表 和内部审计负责人的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整、 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 甘源食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 11 月 8 日召开 2024 年第四次临时股东大会，审议通过了董事会、 监事会换届选举的相关议案，选举产生了第五届董事会董事、第 五届监事会非职工代表监事。 同日公司召开了全体职工代表大会选举产生了第五届监事 会职工代表监事，与公司 2024 年第四次临时股东大会选举产生 的非职工代表监事共同组成公司第五届监事会。 公司于 2024 年 11 月 8 日召开了第五届董事会第一次会议和 第五届监事会第一次会议，选举产生了第五届董事会董事长、副 董事长、董事会专门委员会委员及第五届监事会主席，聘任了公 司高级管理人员、证券事务代表、内部审计负责人。现将相关情 况公告如下： 一、 公司第五届董事会组成情况 （一）董事会成员 非独立董事： 严斌生先生（董事长）、严海雁先生（副董事长 ...

证券代码：002991 证券简称：甘源食品 公告编号：2024-066 甘源食品股份有限公司 关于选举第五届监事会职工代表监事的公告 本公司及监事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 甘源食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第四届监事会 任期即将届满，为保证监事会的正常运作，根据《公司法》《公 司章程》等有关规定，公司于 2024 年 11 月 8 日在江西省萍乡市 萍乡经济技术开发区清泉生物医药食品工业园公司行政楼会议 室召开了公司 2024 年第一次职工代表大会，审议通过选举甘新 开先生（简历见附件）为公司第五届监事会职工代表监事。 甘新开先生将与公司股东大会选举产生的两名非职工代表 监事共同组成公司第五届监事会，与非职工代表监事的任期一致， 任期三年，自 2024 年第四次临时股东大会审议通过之日起至第 五届监事会届满之日止。 2024 年 11 月 8 日 附件： 公司职工代表监事简历 甘新开，男，1970 年 6 月出生，中国国籍，汉族，中共党员。曾任职于东莞长安平基鞋厂任保安队长，东莞 长安展丰鞋厂任总务，东莞厚街新联食品厂任总务，福建泉州佳升机械厂 ...