Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks as core investments [1][12] - The monthly recommended portfolio includes YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, which are leaders in their respective sectors [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to benefit from a cyclical rebound, with a focus on both beef and milk production, as domestic prices are projected to rise significantly by 2027 [14][40] - The report highlights that the domestic milk price has been in decline for nearly four years, leading to pressure on production capacity, while the beef-to-milk price ratio has reached historical highs, prompting faster culling of dairy cows [14][40] Swine Sector - The swine sector is experiencing a gradual recovery, with leading companies expected to benefit from improved cash flows and dividend potential as industry capacity contracts [1][15] - The report emphasizes that the current valuation of leading swine companies is at historical lows, indicating potential for valuation recovery [15][22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is seeing an increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery, particularly in the white-feathered chicken segment, which is entering a consumption peak [24][30] - The report notes that the price of broiler chickens has shown a slight recovery, with a projected increase in profitability for leading poultry companies [24][30] Pet Sector - The pet industry is identified as a promising new consumption sector, benefiting from the rise of domestic brands and emotional consumer trends [16][20] - The report recommends leading pet food companies, which are expected to continue their growth trajectory due to product upgrades and direct sales transformations [20][16] Feed Sector - The feed sector is highlighted for its deepening industrialization and clear division of labor, with leading companies expected to widen their competitive advantages through technology and service [1][3] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that the price of corn has increased by 4% month-on-month, while soybean meal prices are at historical lows, indicating a potential for future recovery [2][22] - The report also mentions that the egg market is under pressure from supply increases, while the demand for soybeans is tightening in the medium to long term [2][18]

Group 1 - Century Huatong plans to change the use of 1.28 million repurchased shares from equity incentive plans to cancellation, reducing total share capital from 7.428 billion to 7.427 billion shares [2] - Wuliangye adjusts its 2025 investment plan, increasing the number of projects from 19 to 22 and changing the investment amount from 2.586 billion to 2.207 billion yuan [3] - Qingyue Technology is under investigation for suspected financial data fraud, with the possibility of forced delisting if found guilty [4] Group 2 - Kang Enbei's chairman and legal representative resigns due to work adjustments, along with another board member [5] - Tianshan Co. expects a tax payment of approximately 61.86 million yuan to impact its 2025 net profit [6] - Muyuan Foods reports a 20.43% year-on-year decline in November sales revenue from live pigs, totaling 9.39 billion yuan [7] Group 3 - GAC Group's November automobile sales decreased by 9.72% year-on-year, with total sales of 1.797 million vehicles [8] - Western Pastoral's fresh milk production in November increased by 6.3% month-on-month but decreased by 6.47% year-on-year [9] - Gemdale Group's November contracted area fell by 58.50% year-on-year, with a total contracted amount of 1.52 billion yuan [10] Group 4 - Zhenghong Technology reports November sales revenue of 4.5196 million yuan from live pigs, with a year-on-year decline of 21.83% [11] - Wens Foodstuff's November chicken sales reached 118 million birds, generating 3.324 billion yuan in revenue [12] - Meilixin's controlling shareholder plans to increase holdings by no less than 50 million yuan [13] Group 5 - Hongcheng Environment's subsidiary wins an 853 million yuan sewage treatment project [14] - Dongzhu Ecology wins a 397 million yuan environmental project [15] - Xindian Software secures a 54 million yuan project for digital community construction [16] Group 6 - China Chemical announces that its nylon new material project has reached full production [17] - Jiaojian Co. is in discussions regarding overdue payments related to financial products, clarifying that it bears no responsibility for these products [18] - Micron Biotech's product is included in the 2025 National Medical Insurance Directory [19] Group 7 - Yitian Intelligent plans to sell 600 smart computing machines for a total of 1.56 billion yuan [20] - First Venture's subsidiary receives an administrative penalty notice from Jiangsu Securities Regulatory Bureau [21] - China Insurance's vice president is under investigation for serious violations [22] Group 8 - Zhixiang Jintai's monoclonal antibody injection is included in the 2025 National Medical Insurance Directory [23] - Haichuang Pharmaceutical's drug is also included in the National Medical Insurance Directory [24] - Yuanli Co. plans to acquire 49% of Clarimex for 25.56 million USD [25] Group 9 - Betta Pharmaceuticals' products are included in the National Medical Insurance Directory [26] - Tianci Materials' controlling shareholder commits to not reducing holdings for six months [27] - Guanglian Aviation's actual controller has had a detention measure lifted [28] Group 10 - Annie Co. announces a share transfer agreement that will make Shengshi Tianan the controlling shareholder [29] - Double Star New Materials notes uncertainty regarding the sustainability of long-term price increases [30] - ST Tianrui terminates plans for a change in control and resumes trading [31] Group 11 - Guao Technology is planning a change in control, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [32] - Guangqi Technology's subsidiary signs contracts worth 696 million yuan for the production of metamaterials [33] - Shuoshi Biotech's monkeypox virus detection kit is included in the WHO emergency use list [34]

Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, particularly recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks [1][12] - The monthly recommended portfolio includes YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from the livestock cycle recovery [1][3] - The report highlights the expected upward trend in domestic beef and milk prices, suggesting a strong recovery in the performance of livestock companies [1][14] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is projected to experience a major turnaround, with a focus on dairy farming stocks such as YouRan Agriculture and Modern Farming [1][14] - The report indicates that the domestic beef and milk markets are likely to see a price rebound, driven by a reduction in production capacity and improved demand dynamics [1][14] - The anticipated "meat-milk resonance" is expected to enhance profitability for dairy farming companies, with significant earnings recovery potential [1][14] Swine Sector - The swine sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in prices, with leading companies like Huazhong and Muyuan Foods positioned to benefit from valuation corrections [1][14] - The report notes that the cash flow of leading swine companies is improving, which may lead to higher dividend payouts in the future [1][15] - The current market conditions suggest that the swine industry is stabilizing, with a focus on maintaining reasonable breeding levels [22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is experiencing a slight increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery to support price stabilization [24] - The report highlights that the white-feathered chicken market is showing signs of recovery, with prices expected to improve as the consumption season approaches [24] - Leading poultry companies are anticipated to maintain strong profitability amid changing supply dynamics [24] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a promising growth area, with domestic brands gaining traction and expected to benefit from rising consumer sentiment [1][16] - The report emphasizes the potential for local pet food brands to capture market share, particularly in the high-end segment [1][16] - The performance of leading pet food companies is projected to remain strong, driven by product upgrades and direct sales strategies [20] Feed Sector - The feed sector is expected to benefit from deeper industrialization in livestock farming, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages [1][14] - The report indicates that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a strong cost support for livestock producers [1][14] - The anticipated tightening of supply-demand balance in the feed market is expected to lead to gradual price recovery [1][14] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that the price of live pigs was 11.25 yuan/kg at the end of November, down 10% month-on-month, while the price of 7kg piglets increased by 18% [2][22] - The report also highlights that corn prices have increased by 4% month-on-month, indicating a potential bottoming out in the market [2][22] - The overall agricultural sector is showing resilience, with the SW Agricultural Index outperforming the broader market [2][22]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Hog Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **hog industry** in China, discussing market developments and price outlooks for hogs [2][3]. Key Points Capacity Trends - **Sow Herd Capacity Cuts**: The reproductive sow herd began to decline in July 2025, with a significant acceleration in cuts noted in October 2025 due to mounting losses. The sow inventory fell over **1% month-over-month** to **39.9 million heads** [3][4]. - **Small-Scale Producers**: Responsible for approximately **28%** of hog output in 2025, small-scale producers are the main contributors to capacity reductions. Large-scale producers also began to cut capacity as losses increased [3]. Cost Trends - **Production Costs**: Costs have decreased in recent years, attributed to lower feed costs and improved efficiency. Top-tier companies operate at an average cost of **Rmb 12–13/kg**, while smaller producers operate at **Rmb 13–14/kg**. With hog prices dropping to **Rmb 11.6/kg** in October and November, the industry has entered a loss-making phase [4]. Price Outlook - **Hog Prices**: Experts predict that hog prices will remain under pressure until mid-2026 due to persistent oversupply. The Ministry of Agriculture's target of **39 million heads** by year-end 2025 is deemed achievable. An inflection point for prices is expected in the second half of 2026, reflecting a typical **10-month lag** between sow herd cuts and market supply contraction [5]. Industry Consolidation - Continued consolidation in the industry is anticipated, with small-scale producers exiting the market. Companies with cost advantages are expected to outperform during this period [5]. Key Beneficiaries - **Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group**: Both companies are well-positioned to benefit from the upcoming hog price upcycle, with Muyuan being highlighted as the top pick due to its cost advantage [6]. Risks Muyuan Foods - Risks include limited production cost savings due to rising feed costs, slower-than-expected hog destocking, lower-than-expected sales volume growth, and delays in the development of its downstream slaughtering business [8]. Wens Foodstuff Group - Risks involve limited cost savings from swine diseases and rising feed costs, sluggish hog prices due to slow de-capacity, lower demand from restaurants, and lower-than-expected average selling price growth of yellow feather broilers [9]. Conclusion - The hog industry in China is facing significant challenges with capacity cuts and price pressures expected to continue until mid-2026. However, companies like Muyuan and Wens are positioned to capitalize on future price recoveries, albeit with notable risks that could impact their profitability.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The industry is experiencing dual support for pig prices due to supply and demand factors, with expectations for continued pressure on large pig sales from individual farmers [4][13] - The overall trend indicates a reduction in breeding stock, with significant implications for the industry as losses in pig farming accelerate [26] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - There is significant short-term pressure on large pig sales from individual farmers, while large farming groups face less pressure to meet annual sales targets [4][13] - As of December 5, 2025, the average price of pigs nationwide is 11.19 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 4.40 yuan/kg [4][13] Weekly Perspective - The pig farming sector is facing losses, leading to an accelerated reduction in breeding stock. The price of pigs continues to decline, creating deeper losses for farmers [26] - Recommendations include companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [26] Market Performance (December 1-5) - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 1.86 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37% while the agricultural index fell by 1.49% [28][32] - Notable stock performances include Haodangjia (+16.15%), Xiwang Food (+10.26%), and Biological Shares (+9.66%) [28][35] Price Tracking (December 1-5) - The average price of pigs on December 5 is 11.20 yuan/kg, with a slight increase from the previous week [38] - The average price of piglets is 19.26 yuan/kg, also showing a week-on-week increase [38] - Other agricultural products such as white feather chicken and beef have seen price increases, with corn futures rising by 2.50% [38][49] Major Meat Import Volumes - In October 2025, pork imports totaled 70,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%, while chicken imports were 7,100 tons, down 72.1% [55][57] Feed Production - In October 2025, the total industrial feed production in China was 29.07 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.2% [57]

Group 1 - The 2025 Greater Bay Area Agricultural Products Trade Fair and Specialty Products Expo will take place from December 12 to 14 in Guangzhou, Guangdong [2][4] - Guangdong Wens Foodstuffs Company will showcase a variety of specialty agricultural products at the event, inviting industry peers for visits, exchanges, and cooperation [5][6][7] Group 2 - Guangdong Wens Foodstuffs Company, a subsidiary of Wens Group, focuses on the deep processing and sales of poultry and livestock products, primarily offering cooked dishes [8][9] - The company has three major production bases in South China, East China, and Central China, equipped with intelligent production facilities, with an annual production capacity of approximately 40,000 tons [12][13][14] - In 2024, the company is expected to sell 25,400 tons of products, with a focus on marinated meat products, prepared dishes, and soup products [14][16] Group 3 - Wens Foodstuffs ensures product quality and safety by sourcing raw materials from Wens Group's integrated breeding companies, implementing a fully traceable supply chain from breeding to processing and sales [16][17] - The company has invested significantly in establishing research and development centers and production bases in South and East China, collaborating with Nanjing Agricultural University on meat quality control and innovation [18][20] Group 4 - The Wens Kungfu series, particularly the salt-baked chicken, is recognized as the top-selling product in its category nationwide, emphasizing convenience and quality [23][24] - The salt-baked chicken is made from high-quality local chickens, prepared with twelve cooking techniques, resulting in a tender and flavorful product [27][28]

Group 1: Major Transactions - Bohai Chemical is planning to sell 100% equity of Tianjin Bohai Petrochemical and acquire control of Anhui Taida New Materials through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, leading to a significant asset restructuring [1] - Zhongneng Electric is set to acquire 65% equity and debt from three companies, which may constitute a major asset restructuring but will not involve share issuance or change in control [4] - Hai Tai Development has decided to terminate the acquisition of controlling interest in Zhixueyun Technology due to disagreements on key terms, ensuring no adverse impact on normal business operations [5] Group 2: Performance Updates - Wen's shares reported a sales revenue of 3.324 billion yuan from meat chickens in November, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.18% [6] - Shuguang shares saw a 71.07% year-on-year increase in vehicle sales, totaling 207 units in November [6] - Muyuan shares experienced a decline in sales revenue from commodity pigs, reporting 9.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.43% year-on-year [6] - Pengding Holdings reported a 5.58% year-on-year decrease in consolidated revenue for November [6] Group 3: Industry Developments - Xiangxi Dairy reported a 6.3% month-on-month increase in fresh milk production in November, although it saw a year-on-year decline of 6.47% [7] - Baisheng Intelligent plans to acquire 51% equity in Zhongke Shengu, which focuses on the research and application of core technologies for embodied intelligent robots [7]

Group 1 - The aquaculture sector experienced a decline of 1.0% on December 5, with Huaying Agriculture leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3902.81, up 0.7%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13147.68, up 1.08% [1] - Key stocks in the aquaculture sector showed varied performance, with Luoniushan rising by 5.40% to a closing price of 9.18 [1] Group 2 - Huaying Agriculture's stock price fell by 3.18% to 2.74, with a trading volume of 812,300 shares and a transaction value of 222 million yuan [2] - The overall net inflow of funds in the aquaculture sector was 25.5 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 7.98 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Muyuan Foods and Luoniushan had significant net inflows from institutional investors, with Muyuan Foods seeing a net inflow of 44.43 million yuan [3]

格隆汇12月5日｜温氏股份(300498.SZ)公告称，2025年11月销售肉鸡11755.44万只，收入33.24亿元，毛 鸡销售均价13.22元/公斤。环比变动分别为-8.40%、-8.51%、-0.83%，同比变动分别为6.02%、10.18%、 3.77%。同时，公司当月销售生猪435.35万头，收入51.99亿元，毛猪销售均价11.71元/公斤。环比变动 分别为11.83%、2.99%、1.21%，同比变动分别为49.71%、-14.19%、-29.92%。 ...

公司2025年11月销售生猪435.35万头（其中毛猪和鲜品345.89万头，仔猪89.46万头），收入51.99亿元， 毛猪销售均价11.71元/公斤，环比变动分别为11.83%、2.99%、1.21%，同比变动分别为 49.71%、-14.19%、-29.92%。 格隆汇12月5日丨温氏股份(300498.SZ)公布，2025年11月销售肉鸡11,755.44万只（含毛鸡、鲜品和熟 食），收入33.24亿元，毛鸡销售均价13.22元/公斤，环比变动分别为-8.40%、-8.51%、-0.83%，同比变 动分别为6.02%、10.18%、3.77%。 ...