Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the Chinese snack industry, highlighting a "golden period" characterized by simultaneous growth in volume and price, driven by health, scenario-based consumption, and digitalization [2][6]. Core Insights - The Chinese snack industry is experiencing a "volume and price increase" phase, with a steady market growth trajectory. The market size is projected to reach 1.4 trillion RMB by 2024, recovering from a growth rate slump during 2020-2022, which saw a mere 0.8% increase in 2022 [2][6]. - The current market structure is layered into three segments: foundational categories supporting the market, emerging categories breaking through, and long-tail categories gaining momentum. Traditional giants are urged to seek high-end upgrades, while new entrants should focus on health transformation [9][12]. - The market is characterized by a "strong head, weak long tail" dynamic in 2023, necessitating traditional categories to innovate through scenarios to extend their lifecycle, while health-focused niches present structural opportunities [2][9]. - Offline channels dominate the snack distribution landscape, with hypermarkets accounting for over 40% of the market share, supermarkets around 24%, and e-commerce channels approximately 20%, which is gradually declining [2][26]. Summary by Sections Current Status of the Snack Industry - The snack industry is undergoing a channel transformation that is generating new growth opportunities. The rise of hypermarkets is particularly noteworthy, as they leverage high turnover efficiency to offer competitive pricing [6][34]. Channel Transformation - The report outlines a significant shift in the snack sales channels over the years, evolving from traditional distribution networks to large chain stores, and now to hypermarket sales models. This transformation is expected to continue, with hypermarkets projected to reach a market size of 1,040 billion RMB by 2024 [25][26]. Analysis of Representative Companies - **Mingming Hen Mang**: Following a merger, the brand's sales are expected to surge from 23.865 billion RMB in 2023 to 55.5 billion RMB in 2024, marking a growth of over 130%. The company serves approximately 5.9 million consumers daily [2][56]. - **China Wangwang**: The company faces challenges with its core product, Wangzai Milk, which accounts for 90% of its revenue in the dairy segment. The revenue for the first half of 2024 is projected to decline by 1.6% year-on-year [2][60]. - **Three Squirrels**: The company has seen a decline in revenue from 9.79 billion RMB in 2020 to 7.12 billion RMB in 2023, primarily due to the fading e-commerce boom and high costs of offline expansion. However, a recovery is anticipated in 2024 with a projected revenue of 10.2 to 10.8 billion RMB, driven by a strategy focused on high-end value and omnichannel sales [2][64].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Three Squirrels, has announced the establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary, Wuhu Second Brain Coffee Co., Ltd., aimed at incubating a new sub-brand focused on the coffee category [1]. Group 1 - The subsidiary has completed its business registration and obtained a business license from the Wuhu Market Supervision Administration [1].

证券代码：300783 证券简称：三只松鼠 公告编号：2025-005 三只松鼠股份有限公司 关于投资孵化新子品牌暨设立全资子公司并取得营业执照 的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 统一社会信用代码：91340203MAEBERL30R 法定代表人：严秀国 注册资本：500 万元 注册地址：安徽省芜湖市弋江区澛港街道峨山东路 8 号阳光之城 一、投资孵化子品牌的情况概述 三只松鼠股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 10 月 28 日召开第 三届董事会第十七次会议审议通过了《关于拟加大投资孵化新子品牌的议案》， 公司拟通过增资、借款等方式向子公司合计投资不超过人民币 1 亿元，以进一步 助力超大腕、蜻蜓教练、东方颜究生、巧可果等新子品牌发展。具体详见 2024 年 10 月 29 日披露于巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）的《关于拟加大投资孵化 新子品牌的公告》（公告编号 2024-057）。 二、投资孵化子品牌的进展情况 近日，公司投资设立全资子公司芜湖第二大脑咖啡有限公司，用于孵化"第 二大脑"新子品牌，聚 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 10.2 to 10.8 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.37% to 51.80%, with a midpoint growth estimate of 48% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 400 to 420 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 81.99% to 91.09%, with a midpoint estimate of 87% [1]. - The company aims to return to a revenue level of 10 billion yuan in 2024, driven by a strategy focused on "high-end cost performance" and a comprehensive approach of "full category + full channel" [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 7.29 billion yuan in 2022, which decreased to 7.11 billion yuan in 2023, but is expected to rebound to approximately 10.46 billion yuan in 2024, marking a growth rate of 47.09% [3][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 129.06 million yuan in 2022, increasing to 219.79 million yuan in 2023, and is projected to reach 401.62 million yuan in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 82.73% [3][9]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a "one product, one chain" supply chain strategy to enhance product competitiveness through global raw material sourcing and establishing concentrated supply bases [1]. - A "D+N" (short video + full channel) strategy is being adopted to strengthen sales across all channels, particularly in offline distribution, which has seen significant growth [1][2]. - The introduction of multiple sub-brands aims to enhance sales scale, with the sub-brand "Xiao Lu Lan Lan" expected to achieve nearly 1 billion yuan in sales in 2024 [1]. Market Performance - As of January 2, 2025, the company's online traditional e-commerce channel sales reached 840 million yuan, while offline distribution sales exceeded 1.8 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of over 40% [2]. - The company anticipates maintaining high profit growth due to the successful implementation of its strategic initiatives [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company is expected to experience short-term performance, mid-term growth, and long-term potential, driven by offline distribution channel expansion and supply chain optimization [3][40] - The snack industry remains in a favorable state, with ongoing opportunities for growth through new channel penetration and product category expansion [2][37] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a manufacturing-based private label retailer, with nuts as its core product and a strong online market share [15] - The company has a clear ownership structure, with the founder holding a significant stake and extensive experience in the snack industry [16] Industry Insights - The snack sector is projected to maintain its favorable outlook through 2025, driven by hard discount channels and new product categories [2][33] - Traditional channels are undergoing self-reform to improve competitiveness, which may benefit the company's traditional business [2][36] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 104.53 billion, 135.94 billion, and 177.01 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 46.92%, 30.04%, and 30.22% respectively [4][12] - Expected net profit for the same period is projected at 4.10 billion, 5.76 billion, and 7.76 billion yuan, with growth rates of 86.67%, 40.31%, and 34.80% respectively [4][12] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company holds the second-largest market share in the nut industry, with a market share of 11.7% in 2024 [31][32] - The company is focusing on expanding its offline market presence, which currently lags behind its online performance [41] Growth Strategy - The company is leveraging its supply chain advantages and digital capabilities to enhance product adaptability across channels, aiming for comprehensive market coverage [47][53] - The strategy includes expanding product categories and enhancing the efficiency of distribution channels to drive sales growth [29][51]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 10.2 to 10.8 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.4% to 51.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 400 to 420 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 82.0% to 91.1% [1][4] - The company's high-end cost-performance strategy has shown significant results, with the sub-brand Xiao Lu Lan Lan expected to achieve nearly 1 billion yuan in sales in 2024, validating the effectiveness of strategic adjustments [4] - The company plans to maintain its business model as a "manufacturing-based self-owned brand retailer," with expectations for offline distribution to contribute to growth in 2025 [4] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 7.293 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 10.5 billion yuan in 2024 and 13.055 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 47.6% and 24.3% respectively [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 129 million yuan in 2022 to 410 million yuan in 2024 and 573 million yuan in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 86.6% and 39.6% respectively [3] - The company's EPS (Earnings Per Share) is expected to increase from 0.32 yuan in 2022 to 1.02 yuan in 2024 and 1.43 yuan in 2025 [3][4]

证券代码：300783 证券简称：三只松鼠 公告编号：2025-004 三、备查文件 三只松鼠股份有限公司 关于签订《投资意向协议》的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、《投资意向协议》相关事项概述 2024 年 10 月 28 日，三只松鼠股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第三届董 事会第十七次会议审议通过《关于签订<投资意向协议>的议案》，公司全资子公司 安徽一件事创业投资有限公司拟以不超过人民币 2 亿元收购湖南爱零食科技有限公 司（以下简称"爱零食"）的控制权或相关业务及资产；拟以不超过人民币 0.6 亿 元收购未来已来（天津）科技发展有限责任公司（以下简称"爱折扣"）的控制权 或相关业务及资产；拟以不超过人民币 1 亿元收购安徽致养食品有限公司（以下简 称"致养食品"）的控制权或相关业务及资产。具体内容详见公司 2024 年 10 月 29 日登载于巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn）的《关于签订<投资意向协 议>的公告》（公告编号：2024-055）。 二、进展情况 《投资意向协议》签订后，公司积极 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 10.2 to 10.8 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.37% to 51.80%. The fourth quarter revenue is projected to be between 3.03 to 3.63 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 19.68% to 43.37%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 400 to 420 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 81.99% to 91.09% [5][6]. - The company's high-end cost-performance strategy has shown significant results, with strong performance during the New Year sales period. The company has effectively implemented a "D+N" all-channel strategy, focusing on daily sales products and achieving a successful first round of distribution [6]. - The company has deepened its supply chain layout, enhancing product competitiveness and significantly improving net profit margins. The expected net profit margin for 2024 is approximately 3.7% to 4.1%, an increase of about 0.6 to 1 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 10.471 billion, 13.627 billion, and 16.704 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 47.18%, 30.14%, and 22.58%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 405 million, 545 million, and 752 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 84.35%, 34.61%, and 37.80% [7][10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.01, 1.36, and 1.87 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 33, 24, and 18 times [7][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [6][7]. Core Views - The company successfully achieved its revenue target of 10 billion yuan in 2024 through multiple reforms in products, channels, supply chain, and organization. The online "D+N" strategy and offline distribution reforms are expected to continue in 2025, with additional revenue growth anticipated from the acquisition of Ai Zhe Kou and Ai Ling Shi, which will enter the hard discount sector [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast - For Q4 2024, the company expects revenue between 3.031 billion and 3.631 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.68% to 43.37%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 59 million and 79 million yuan, with a growth of 17.21% to 57.08% [6]. - For the full year 2024, the expected revenue is between 10.2 billion and 10.8 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 43.37% to 51.80%. The net profit is forecasted to be between 400 million and 420 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 81.99% to 91.09% [6][9]. Revenue and Profitability - The company’s Q4 revenue is expected to exceed market expectations, with the lower limit of annual revenue already reaching the 10 billion yuan target. The anticipated revenue growth for Q4 is driven by Douyin and offline channels, with online revenue growth estimated at around 25% year-on-year, primarily fueled by Douyin [6][9]. - The company’s profitability is also expected to improve, with a projected net profit margin of 2.07% for Q4 2024, up from the previous year. The full-year net profit margin is expected to reach 3.90%, an increase of 0.82 percentage points year-on-year [6][9]. Brand Performance - The company has effectively advanced its supply chain and all-channel reforms, with its multi-brand strategy showing initial success. The brand Xiao Lu Lan Lan has achieved a target of 1 billion yuan and is accelerating the development of new brands [6][9]. Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 10.407 billion, 13.891 billion, and 17.745 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 46.3%, 33.5%, and 27.7% [7][9]. - The expected net profit for the same years is 407 million, 580 million, and 860 million yuan, with growth rates of 85.2%, 42.6%, and 48.3% [7][9]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 35, 25, and 17 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue target of 102-108 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 43%-52%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 4.0-4.2 billion yuan, with a growth of 82%-91% [5]. - The company is implementing a "high-end cost-performance" strategy, focusing on a comprehensive product and channel approach, and aims to return to a revenue level of 100 billion yuan by 2024 [5][6]. - Structural reforms are being advanced to enhance brand and channel competitiveness, including a full-category supply chain layout and multi-brand matrix development [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of 102-108 billion yuan for 2024, with a net profit of 4.0-4.2 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 3.0-3.3 billion yuan, indicating significant growth rates [5]. - For Q4 2024, revenue is expected to be between 30.31-36.31 billion yuan, with a net profit of 0.59-0.79 billion yuan [5]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on a "high-end cost-performance" strategy, maintaining a "full-category + full-channel" operational model, and reinforcing its identity as a "manufacturing self-owned brand retailer" [5]. - Key initiatives include global raw material direct procurement, expansion of offline distribution, and the establishment of a network-type organization with 248 small operational units [6]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 1.02, 1.43, and 1.95 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 35, 25, and 18 times [7]. - The company's long-term confidence in its "high-end cost-performance" strategy is expected to drive sustainable growth and achievement of performance targets [7].